ubs global financial services conference, 9 may 2012 · ubs global financial services conference, 9...
TRANSCRIPT
UBS Global Financial Services Conference, 9 May 2012
Annika Falkengren
President & CEO
2
Relationship banking as the key franchise driver
Maintain strong balance sheet and asset quality
In the new world, what are SEB’s priorities?
Relationship banking as key franchise driver
4
Denmark
NorwayFinland
Sweden
LithuaniaLatvia
Estonia
Germany
2.7
2
1.1
2.5
2010 2011 2012E 2013E
1.8 1.5
-0.6
0.8
2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Nordic GDP growth (per cent)
Eurozone GDP growth (per cent)
Fundamentals remain robust in Northern Europe
5
London
S:t
Petersburg
Geneva
Hong KongShanghaiNew DelhiBeijing
Kiev
Dublin
MoscowDenmark
NorwayFinland
Sweden
New York
São Paulo
Singapore
LithuaniaLatvia
Estonia
GermanyWarsaw
Luxembourg
A Nordic bank with global reach Following
in our
customers’
footprint
5
Northern Europe 25.5%
Americas18%
RoW
14.5%
Asia 14%
Nordics 28%
Note: Sales of 120 largest listed Swedish corporatesSource: Annual reports
SEB in Asia
25% income growth
Full service offering to
Corporates
& Institutions
through 5 regional offices
and 200 employees
66
For the first time SEB named Best Bank for Large Corporates and Institutions in the Nordics 2011
Note: Net change between 2010 and 2011 (left-hand graph). Country scores 2011 (right-hand graph)The result is based on 62 surveys across the Nordics. Source: Prospera Large Corporates & Institutions Surveys 2011
Voice of the customer: SEB is the #1 wholesale bank in the Nordics
+20%
SEB #2 #3
SEB SEB
SEB SEB
77
Example: SEB in Finland
Transforming the business
A “true
relationship ” perception
A product provider
perception
From
TargetValue for SEB
Value for the Customer
An “advisory” perception
Increased customer satisfaction (Prospera)
0
50
100
150
200
2006 2011
Corporates Non-corporates
Increased income and credit exposure (EUR m)
Credit Exposure
EUR 3bn
Credit Exposure
EUR 8bn
Source: Prospera Large Corporates & Institutions Surveys 2011
SEB
8
Growing customer base and enhanced relationships
8
Profitability
*Basel III alignment of capital added 40 per cent capital allocation
Customer income, SEK m # of customers
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q1 12
010203040
Q1-07
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-08
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-09
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-10
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-11
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-12
010203040
Business Equity (SEK bn) Return on BE (%)
Nordic and German expansion
1,800
+110
2,025
+25
+90
Dec 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Mar 2012
Number of corporate clients in Merchant Banking
*
Tier 1 clients in Merchant Banking
CAGR +9%
9
Large Corporates
Customer segments in Merchant Banking
Financial Institutions
Income distribution
Relationship lending
Product income
Income distributionRelationship lending
Product income
9
~65% of total revenues
~ 2,000 customers~ 5 home markets &
17 supporting sites
~35% of total revenues
~ 700 customers~ 5 home markets &
4 financial centres
1010
Successful repositioning in the Swedish SME market
Growing number of clients
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1-12
+14,000
Market share
0%
4%
8%
12%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1-12
Note: Active cash management customers
Operating income (SEK bn)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1-12
Availability and offerings
Note: Active cash management customers Note: Q1-12 annualised
11
Increased presence in the Swedish household mortgage market reflects SEB’s customer base
Low LTVs by regional and global standards
0-50%
51-
85%
22%
>85% 2%Loan-to-value Share of portfolio
76%
* Source: Swedish Credit Bureau (“UC AB”)
Swedish mortgages, market shares, 31 Dec 2011
Strict credit policy
●
Affordability
●
LTV and leverage caps
●
Amortisation
●
Stress tests
Source: SCB
1%4%4%8%
15%
25%
27%
16% SEB
Swedbank
SHB
Nordea
SBAB
LF
Danske
Other
~14% ofcredit portfolio
~6% oftotal revenues
12
0102030405060
Incomegroup 1
Incomegroup 2
Incomegroup 3
Incomegroup 4
Incomegroup 5
Share of total debt Share of financial assetsShare of real assets
Income group 1 has the lowest disposable incomeIncome group 5 the highest
Majority of Assets and Debt held by households with higher income
Source: Sveriges Riksbank Nov 2009
Resilient mortgage market with repricing features
0
2
4
6
8
10
-07 -08 -09 -10 -11
Germany Denmark SpainUK Netherlands USASweden
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Mortgage lending rates are going up due to stricter regulatory framework
Credit loss level for SEB’s Swedish household mortgage portfolio
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Mar '12
Maintain strong balance sheet and asset quality
14
Resilience
Strong capital position
High liquidity reserves
Solid asset quality
Good market access
15
Strong capital situation
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11
Core Tier 1 ratio (per cent)
Basel II
Basel II
Basel III 12.7Regulatory target range
Maintain buffer to minimum regulatory levels
RWA stable in continuing operations. Lending to high-
quality customers and increased use of collateral for RWA purposes offset Basel 2.5 effects and volume growth.
Regulatory treatment of IAS 19 still not clarified
13.9
16
2.3*
12.0*
16.5*14.3*
13.9 14.5 2.310.0
12.3-1.0-1.2
0.6
68
1012141618
Mar 2012 Dec 2012 Dec 2012 Dec 2012
SEB’s road to Basel III, and conservatism across all customer segments in terms of risk modelling RWA
Basel II to Basel III Core Tier 1 Pro forma (per cent)
Basel II total IRB risk weight, Swedish banks, per cent, Q1 2009 – Q4 2011
Consensus retainedearnings
Estimated B3 effect
Maximum IAS19 adjustment
Pro forma B3Pro forma B2.5 Swedish finish
”Buffer”
*Start 2015
2.6*
01020304050
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 SEB
17
Solid funding and deposit situation
Structurally sound balance sheet
Loan-to-deposit ratio excluding household mortgage lending ~100%
Unutilised capacity for covered bonds SEK 94bn
Assets Equity & Liabilities
Funding, remaining maturity
>1 year
Deposits from the General Public
Other Lending
Equity
Stable funding
“Banking book”
Household Lending
1,230
1,100
Balance sheet structureMar 2012, SEK bn
+130bn more stable funding
18
Loan growth funded through deposit growth and issued long-term covered and senior bondsHousehold lending, deposits and covered bond funding
Corporate & public lending, deposits and senior bonds
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08S
ep-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
SE
K b
n
LendingDepositsCovered BondsNet = lending - deposits - outstanding cov bonds
-200-100
0100200300400500600700800
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08S
ep-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ar-0
9Ju
n-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
SE
K b
n
LendingDepositsSenior DebtNet = Lending - deposits - senior debt
Retail Germany disposal
Stable net funding base
19
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11
Lending to and deposits from corporates and households
“Financial crisis”Jul 08 – Mar 09
“Sov debt crisis”
Apr-11 – Dec-11
Lending
Deposits
Average 6% CAGR since 2000
Average 6% CAGR since 2000
+95
+150
+145
+80
Lending and deposit volumes SEK bn
Excluding divested businesses
20
SEB’s stable corporate business is not captured in Basel III Example: accredited stability in structural liquidity ratio (”NSFR”)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jun-06
dec Jun-07
dec Jun-08
dec Jun-09
dec Jun-10
dec Jun-11
dec
Balance sheet amountBasel III funding stability
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jun-06
dec Jun-07
dec Jun-08
dec Jun-09
dec Jun-10
dec Jun-11
dec
Balance sheet amountBasel III funding stability
SEB’s household deposits, SEK bn SEB’s corporate deposits, SEK bn
84% 27%
21
SEB is already LCR compliant
SEB has a very liquid balance sheet
LCR at 109 per cent vs. 95 per cent end of 2011
50 per cent of core liquidity reserve invested in central banks due to limited availability of AAA-
rated papers in local markets LCR varying heavily due to its
short-term nature – deposit base development– excess liquidity investments
Liquid resources / Short-term fundingMarch 31, 2012, SEK bn
SEK 140bn more in liquid assets than the ST funding
Liquidity Portfolio
Cash & Deposits
in CB
Funding <1y
Net Trading
Assets
Credit Institutions
Credit Institutions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Assets Liabilities
22
Continued strong asset quality
Non-performing loans/lending and non- performing loans (SEK bn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10 Q4-110.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%NPLs NPL/Lending (RHS)
Baltics0.09
Germany0.00
Nordics0.07
Other
Distribution of lending portfolio and credit loss levels by geography (per cent)
SEB Group 0.06
Non-performing loans in relations to the loan portfolio outside the Baltic countries
0.58% 0.49%0.11% 0.01%
0.53%
Wholesale and retail Manufacturing Nordic commercialreal estate
Shipping SEB Group
23
Net credit losses, Q1 08 – Q1 12Non-performing loans and Reserves
12.2
7.2
0.2
11.7
7.0
0.10.6
11.4
18.7
0.1
10.0
15.9
0
24
6
8
1012
14
1618
20
NPL Reserves Net write-offs
2009 2010 2011 Mar-12
Continued recovery of Baltic asset quality
SEK bn SEK m
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Cumulative credit loss expectations Baltic crisis at the end of 2009 (SEK bn)
18 2210.7
3229
Swedish '90s crisislevels on Baltic portfolio
Finansinspektionen Riksbanken Analyst consensus Outcome 2008-2011
30% used for write-offs
Sum-up
25
Robust regionRobust region The Relationship bankThe Relationship bank
Balanced growthBalanced growth High asset qualityHigh asset quality
The leadingrelationship bank
in our partof the world