two germs and a baby...australian mutton exports - china '000 tonnes swt 2018 14.0 12.0 10.0...
TRANSCRIPT
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2020 HTW Rural Property Market Update
Two germs and a baby
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Image Beer
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Trade war to Phase 1 deal
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$50bn
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25% Tariff on ag products
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Add another $100bn
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Add another $100bnLet’s be friends
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2/3
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$24bn to $9bn
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Making Brazilian farmers great again
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Phase 1 deal
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African Swine Fever (ASF)
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Asian Pig Herd
441 million in China
106 million in rest of Asia
ASF impacted countries represent 94% of the herd
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ASF causing a protein shortage
800 million pigs in the world
200-240 million by end of 2020
441 million pigs in China
Net China red meat deficit of 16 M tonne
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Impact of the deficit to Australian meat export sector
• Beef exports up 86%
• Mutton exports up 86%
• Lamb exports up 47%
• No export protocols for pork/chicken
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Australian pork to China?
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31mmt
60mmt
89mmt
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Worst case: 9 times the average Australian barley crop!
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Coronavirus (COVID19)
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Coronavirus – Ag impact
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Impact of Covid19
?
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Female slaughter levels unsustainable
57%In 2019
47%sustainable
43%rebuild
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Restockers and export price
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Lamb strong, Mutton stronger
Export demand growth
Declining flock in Australia
and in NZ, our only competitor
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