twinning project fiche for institutional … · 2. put in place a solid administrative and...

TWINNING PROJECT FICHE FOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY BUILDING

OF THE CENTRAL AGENCY FOR PUBLIC

MOBILISATION AND STATISTICS - CAPMAS

Prepared on behalf of the

EUROPEAN COMMISSION Under the

Support to the EU-Egypt Association Agreement Programme (SAAP)

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List of useful abbreviations

BC Beneficiary Country CAPMAS Central Agency for Public Mobilisation And Statistics (Office of National

Statistics in Egypt) CPI Consumer Price Index ECD Delegation of the European Commission in Egypt ENP European Neighbourhood Policy ICT Information & Communication Technology IMF International Monetary Fund MEDSTAT2 Regional Programme of Statistics in the Mediterranean Region, Phase II MS Member State of the European Union NSS National Statistical System PPI Producer Price Index PAO Programme Administration Office in Egypt RTA Resident Twinning Advisor SAAP Support Association Agreement Programme between EU and Egypt SAD Single Administrative Document (commonly known as the Global Customs

Declaration Form) initiated by the European Community Council in 1988 with the purpose of standardising customs documents, harmonising codification and simplifying procedures in international trade exchanges

WCO World Customs Organisation UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Specific for foreign trade in goods (commodities): CN Combined Nomenclature administered by Euro stat HS Harmonised System Nomenclature administered by the World Customs

Organisation SITC Standard International Trade Classification administered by UN ASYCUDA Automated System for Customs Data (compilation of foreign trade statistics)

administered by UNCTAD COLUMBUS e-learning programme for customs capacity building administered by WCO Specific for IT: GIS Geographical Informational System INTRANET Computer network within an organisation LAN Local Area Network The terms Office of National Statistics is used to describe the competent governmental authority for official statistics. However, the practice of providing statistics differs from country to country and the Office of National Statistics is not always the only provider of official statistics. Depending on the governmental structure competent authorities other than the offices of national statistics are also providers of official statistics within their jurisdiction. The term Office of National Statistics and statistical authority are used synonymously in this report. The term “statistical authority that provide official statistics in subject specific areas”, “government authority that provide official statistics in subject specific areas” and “competent authority in public administration that provide statistical information within their jurisdiction” is used synonymously in this report. The term goods and commodities, dissemination and publishing, respectively are used synonymously in this report.

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STANDARD SUMMARY PROJECT FICHE

1. Basic Information 1.1. Programme: Support to the Implementation of the Egyptian

European Association Agreement Programme (SAAP)

1.2. Twinning Number: EG07/AA/FI06

1.3. Title: Institutional Capacity building for the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) and developing the legal framework for statistics in Egypt.

1.4. Sector: Statistics

1.5. Beneficiary country: Arab Republic of Egypt

2. Objectives

2.1. Overall objective

To contribute to the development of a policy for statistical information in Egypt by adjustment of statistical law(s) and build up of organisational capacity at CAPMAS to function as Office of National Statistics in Egypt.

2.2. Project Purpose

- To support in preparing the draft statistical laws and define the role of CAPMAS to function as the national statistical authority.

- Support in building up the organizational capacity of CAPMAS to produce, publish and disseminate high quality statistics as well as to increase statistical awareness in general.

- To improve IT functions in support of statistical production, publishing and dissemination.

- To improve certain statistical areas based on scientific principles that meet national demands and European standards.

The immediate beneficiaries will be staff of CAPMAS, policy makers in line ministries, organisations representing businesses and employees, foreign and local investors, academic and research community and as an extension the citizens of Egypt.

2.3. Contribution to the National Development Plan/Association Agreement/Action plan

Recently, the Egyptian government has taken several measures to improve the consistency and coherence of statistics production and dissemination. Such measures include the drafting of a new information law (still under discussion) which addresses several issues including statistical production, transparency, visibility and information updating in the statistical databases in Egypt. Within this context, discussions have taken place to create a co-ordination mechanism between all competent authorities producing statistics in order to ensure that proper methodologies are practiced and that dissemination procedures are uniform. It is

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foreseen that within the framework of the twinning project, the draft law will be reviewed and adjusted to meet European standards and UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics.

The project supports the provision of Article 56 of the Association Agreement entitled Co-operation on statistics, with, as an objective of co-operation in this field, to harmonize methodology in order to create a reliable basis for handling statistics in all - fields covered by this Agreement.

Furthermore, the project's objectives contribute to the implementation of priorities provided by the ENP Action Plan under 2.2.4.d., which supports the improvement of statistical methods compatible with European and international standards in relevant statistical areas, emphasizing the adoptions of legislative reform, development of specific statistical areas within the framework of an Egyptian National Statistical Master Plan.

3. Description

3.1. Background and justification

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (hereinafter referred to as CAPMAS) is an independent agency affiliated to the Ministry of Planning and Local Development. According to presidential decree number 2915 issued in 1964, CAPMAS is the sole entity with the legal and official mandate for data collecting, data analysis, data processing, data dissemination and producing statistics as well as conducting the census.

CAPMAS is also responsible for analyzing statistics and providing periodical reports to many governmental entities to support the planning, policy formation and decision making.

CAPMAS is composed of five departments: Central Department for Statistical, Central Department for IT, Central Department for Public Mobilization, Regional Offices Department and the General Secretariat. Central Department for Statistical Department carries out all the statistical activities, the Regional Offices Department collects all data; the IT sector on the other hand handles all computing processes.

A committee for statistical planning and coordination was established to coordinate the national statistical system (NSS), develop statistical policy and programs for the government and prevent duplication of statistical work. The committee is headed by the president of CAPMAS and includes representatives from different ministries and agencies.

CAPMAS has two training centres: the statistical training centre and the information technology training centre.

With its enormous human resources, technical expertise, and equipments, CAPMAS is considered among the most important state agencies in Egypt at a time when data and information represent the most crucial factor in achieving success and advancement in various fields and activities.

The transformation of the economy from a more or less planned towards a free market- orientated system is now under way in Egypt. Wide-ranging reforms are being introduced with the aim of improving economic performance and living conditions for citizens. Accordingly, CAPMAS must be able to capture the data reflecting economic and social changes in Egypt with upgraded statistical methods. CAPMAS has understood this need and outlined a strategy to be adopted in four steps:

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1. Review and reform the statistical laws;

2. Put in place a solid administrative and organisational structure with staff capabilities that facilitate producing and publishing high quality statistics;

3. Improvement of certain statistics and add some new statistics(if possible);

4. Improve IT system for a safe and speedy processing, storage and publishing capacity.

The official statistics will be increasingly used to measure the impact of socio-economic reforms that are now being introduced in Egypt. Since one third of foreign trade (exports and imports) in commodities is with EU Member states, it can be expected that the demand for accurate and reliable foreign trade statistics on a timely basis will be high from economic and trading institutions involved in promoting trade and investments with Egypt. A twinning partnership co-operation with a corresponding EU institution will provide CAPMAS with knowledge and know how to support the achievement of its objectives. The principal actor of this transfer will be the Resident Twinning Adviser (RTA) who will co-ordinate twinning activities and organise study tours to the corresponding institution(s) in EU Member States.

3.2. Linked activities

The project twinning activities have to be closely linked to the ongoing MEDSTAT2 project that has been launched recently. MEDSTAT2 is the EC-funded project under the EUROMED Regional Programme of Statistics for the Mediterranean Region Phase2. The scheduled MEDSTAT2 activities have to be taken into account by the RTA in order to avoid duplication when the twinning project activities start. Until now, the reports from MEDSTAT2 that have relevance are:

- Project Orientation Report, Draft version 2006-08-30;

- Country Statistical Situation Report, Draft version 2006-08-30.

The World Bank/IMF supportive activities in bank supervision, monetary policy framework, exchange-rate policy, data dissemination, review of standard, and code, (and statistical soundmen), reliability of balance of payment, figure, (comprehensiveness, inclusiveness) and fiscal clarification, consolidation Treasury Single Account (TSA) and sustainability are linked with the Central Bank of Egypt, Research Department. The RTA will co-ordinate the project activities with IMF.

USAID has provided support to upgrade IT equipment and basic software (MS Windows and Office) for gathering national income accounting data. These activities in support of statistics have ended as of early 2006 have improved CAPMAS human resources basic knowledge of modern statistical processing methods and tools.

3.3. Results

The carrying out of specific twinning activities will be supportive to the adopted strategy to the greatest possible extent. The carrying out of specific twinning activities does not necessarily lead to measurable results immediately. Instead, the twinning should be viewed as providing guidance and support to CAPMAS to achieve results. This is due to the interdependency of different activities e.g. improved external trade data for commodities will improve the trade component in the system of national accounts and balance of payments and the existence of an updated statistical business register will improve the sampling procedures that in turn provide reliable indicators for measuring economic activity.

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Component 1: Support to the development of a statistical policy

Legislative changes

Legislative basis for statistical production in Egypt is reviewed and draft proposal for law enactment is finalised.

Organisational reforms

The new organisational structure (management framework) is reviewed and draft proposal is finalised for approval by the government. Staff informed about the new legislation and organisational reform of CAPMAS. The composition of staff towards statistical competency is accepted by top management. Guidelines for building up intranet with security rules for storage and dissemination are introduced at central office and regional offices. Recommendations for upgrade of statistical databases including metadata and rules for statistical production and publishing are further elaborated. Dynamic and user friendly website with output data base is implemented.

Increased statistical awareness

Publishing Rules and user friendly formats (printed and website presentation) for statistics (press releases, printed format of tables and texts etc.) are adopted.

Users and providers able to communicate directly with one another at meeting points e.g. courses, seminars and press releases.

Improvement of IT function in support of statistical production and publishing

For all 3 components (Component 1 Data collecting, Component 2: Data processing, Component 3 Data dissemination) the expected results include but not limited to:

Guidelines for building up intranet with security rules for storage and dissemination are introduced at central office and regional offices;

Recommendations for upgrade of statistical databases including metadata and rules for statistical production and publishing are further elaborated. Dynamic and user friendly website with output data base is implemented

Component 2: Development of certain statistics

Improvement of national accounts

Alignment of responsibilities for compiling national accounts with EU methodologies and strengthen institutional capacity. Report prepared that will include a summary description of the current practices of estimation and use of source data as well as recommendations for improvements in future work

Adjustment of statistics of foreign trade in goods to international standards

On statistics of foreign trade in commodities the duties of Customs authorities (collection) and CAPMAS (production) are clearly defined in a Memorandum of Understanding. Compliance with international standards of classification and data coverage are agreed as of

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accepted date. Re-conciliation accounts for an “immediately preceding 2 year period” are under preparation.

Methodological guidelines for compiling PPI in accordance with European standards are provided including quality control and methods of statistical analysis.

Compilation of producer price index (PPI)

Methodological guidelines for compiling PPI in accordance with European standards are provided including quality control and methods of statistical analysis.

Adjustment of consumer price index (CPI)

Revised methods for CPI compilation in accordance with European standards and IMF are completed. Recommendations for new survey including quality control and methods of statistical analysis are provided.

Statistical business registry system and use of administrative data sources

The data based Statistical Business Registry is defined and with census data and data control analyses of the contents (inputs) is done. Outlines of a business demography table are prepared. Report prepared outlining the use of administrative data sources and in particular the use of the proposed Egyptian fiscal tax identifier (registration ID-number) to identify businesses in a statistical business registry.

Indicators of Achievement


Legislative changes

Draft statistical law enacted, or in an advance stage of legislative enactment. Mission reports from study visits.

Organisational reforms

Organisational re-structuring (new management framework) of CAPMAS is approved, or in the process of being initiated in a step by step way. Information about the organisational changes and its purpose is conveyed to staff. Mission reports from study visits. Intranet in operation with rules for data security is adopted. Well trained IT staff for data warehousing and data mining.

Dynamic and user-friendly website is introduced and output database is available for internet publishing.

Mission reports of study visits.

Increased statistical awareness

New function with mandated responsibilities for publishing with good relationship for statistics to media, statistics to organisations representing businesses and employees, statistics to governmental agencies and statistics to citizens is in place. Mission reports from study visits.

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Improved IT function in support of statistical production and publishing

For all 3 components (Component 1 Data collecting, Component 2: Data processing, Component 3 Data dissemination) the indicative performance indicators include the following: Intranet in operation with rules for data security is adopted. Well trained IT staff for data warehousing and data mining. Dynamic and user-friendly website is introduced and output database is available for internet publishing. Mission reports of study visits.


Improvement of national accounts

Memorandum of understanding for change in responsibility for national accounts is adopted. The methodology for analysis of data and adjusting procedures is in practice and staff well acquainted with European system. Proposal for compiling PPI is approved.

Adjustment of statistics of foreign trade in goods to international standards

Memorandum of understanding for operational division of responsibilities between Customs and CAPMAS (Office of National Statistics) is adopted.

Re-conciliation accounts between “previous” and “new” statistics for immediately preceding 2 year period is implemented. Mission reports from study visits.

Compilation of producer price index (PPI)

Proposal for compiling PPI is approved

Adjustment of consumer price index (CPI)

Proposal for adjustment of CPI is approved.

Statistical business registry system and use of administrative data sources

Statistical business registry is designed and work procedures are approved. Trained staff in methods and procedures for maintenance is in place. Mission reports from study visits.

3.4. Activities

The twinning project is arranged around an achievable purpose and activities to be performed to reach the foreseen results within a time frame of 24 months. In order of priority, the twinning areas for performance of activities can be divided into three modules:

- Development of a statistical policy with all entailed restructuring implications for CAPMAS;

- Development of certain statistics;

- Improvement of IT functions in support of statistical production and publishing.

The twinning project has been formulated around the following 2 components:

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1.1. Improving statistical legislation

Presidential decree 2915/1964 that empowers CAPMAS to produce and publish statistics dates back to 1964. The law also empowers CAPMAS to play a co-ordinating role for all statistics that are produced and published in Egypt. In this context CAPMAS has initiated discussions about the need to analyse the existing statistical law(s) and assess the needs for changes in alignment with European standards. The initiated discussions are also about the functions and responsibilities of CAPMAS to perform fully in correspondence as the Office of National Statistics in Egypt. The new statistical law may propose the establishment of a Consultative Council to strengthen cooperation between all public authorities who are responsible for statistics within their jurisdictions. The government indicated that it is supportive of reforms at CAPMAS. However, this initiative has been put on hold because of the intervening census that was carried out in 2006.

Indicative activities foreseen

Short term (MS) experts will be provided to evaluate the current legal environment and to provide recommendations for drafting new laws, ordinances and instructions as required by European Community standards. The legal act should include statistical activities of public authorities and that of CAPMAS In this context, the UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (1994) are to be incorporated in the new legislative texts.

The statistical laws have to empower CAPMAS to access directly, under certain conditions, administrative sources (government authorities) to gather data that can be used in building up the statistical (business and household) registers. This important component has to be taken into account when drafting the new laws, ordinances and instructions.

Together with national experts, twinning short term (MS) experts will prepare the guidelines for adopting a national policy for statistics based on the new legislation (law, ordinances and instructions). The national policy will include the rules for statistical confidentiality at all levels for gathered data storage to be disclosed through publishing.

A study tour will be organized for CAPMAS officials to visit corresponding institutions in EU Member States in order to gain knowledge useful to drafting the laws, ordinances and instructions for producing and publishing high quality statistics.

1.2. Organizational Reforms

CAPMAS is an independent government agency reporting to the Minister of Economic Development. It should be mentioned however, that the responsibility for compiling and publishing investment data and national accounts is assigned to the Ministry of Economic Development.

Production of statistics at CAPMAS is organised according to subject- specific areas and has been the same since its inception. Organisational and administrative reforms have been long overdue. Without an efficient and effective national statistical administration, governments will not be able to obtain statistics that are accurate, reliable timely, allowing basis to monitor the outcome of their policy decisions in respect to investments, trade facilitation, economic growth and social interventions that can. This is the reason why the government of Egypt is now supportive of organisational reforms at CAPMAS.

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The current organisation of CAPMAS as seen through the beneficiary lenses is shown below:

Central Administration For Public Mobilization &

Statistic Affairs of The Upper Egypt Region

Central Adminstratration for Financial & Administrative

Affairs

The Central Administration for Mobilizational planning

,Human Resources Mobilization & Scientific

Sufficiencies


Statistic Affairs of The North Egypt Region

Central Adminstratration

Engineering Affarirs &

Maintenance

The Central Administration for Public Mobilization

Researches & Studie Center Affairs


Statistic Affairs of The Suez canal Region

Central Adminstratration for Administrative

Development

Central Administration for Mobilising Productivity

Resources


Statistic Affairs of The Greater Cairo Region

The Central Administration For IT

Training

Central Administration for Statistics

Central Administration for Census

CAPMAS President

Head of the Central Administration for CAPMAS

Persident Office Affairs

Central administration for national Center Affairs&

Statistical Training

IT SectorGeneral Secretariat

The Automatic Computation Central

Administration

The Central Administration For Information System

The Central Administration For

Technical Support & Development

The Central administration for Research & Population Studies

Center Affairs

Public Mobilization Sector

Consultative Committee for Statistical Planning & Co-ordination

Organisational Chart of The Central Administration for CAPMAS Persident Office Affairs

Regional Branches Sector Statistics Sector

The need to build up the organisational framework within which CAPMAS will to perform its functions as the Office of National Statistics in Egypt has been initiated by the top management of CAPMAS. In the CAPMAS context, the envisaged change is understood to mean a new management structure for decision- making, as well as acquiring the specific knowledge experiences, skills, processes and resources needed to carry -out its functions and achieve its objectives. The adoption of the main principals of the European Statistics Code of Practice by CAPMAS will enhance its position as the supplier of official statistics in Egypt. The new structure should then be in correspondence with the tasks set out in the new statistical law when in force. A possible model for building up the managerial framework with identified functionalities is as follows:

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The setting up of a Consultative Council has to be considered as an essential requirement for good governance in the field of statistics. It is foreseen that the new statistical law should establish a Consultative Council to strengthen cooperation between all public authorities who are responsible for statistics within their jurisdictions through meetings, seminars, workshops, and conferences as well contacts with international organisations. Meetings should be scheduled at regular intervals to deal with matters of principle regarding the availability, quality and usefulness of the official statistics. An important task for the council will be to prepare an annual report about developments and maintain a register of all statistical authorities and the statistics they produce according to the new legislation. This register has to be published by the principal producer of official statistics in Egypt (Office of National Statistics, CAPMAS).

The existing "Consultative Committee for Statistical Planning and Co-ordination" will be used as a pilot and a reference for the establishment of the (permanent) National consultative council for statistics.

The possibility to convene scientific committees must be encouraged at all levels and in particular at the operational level. Representation of the academic and user community in these meetings will enhance the work of quality improvements (sampling techniques, estimation of statistical values, change in methodology etc.). Meetings will have to be arranged from time to time to discuss issues about updating statistics.

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It should be mentioned that contemplated and proposed changes in the organisational framework of CAPMAS have to be submitted for approval by the Central Agency for Organisation and Administration under the Ministry of Administrative Development. The budgetary adjustments are then made by decision of the Ministry of Finance.


The adoption of a new organisational structure for CAPMAS will be reviewed by twinning short term (MS) experts and guidelines provided for adopting a new model with appropriate management functions that will enable CAPMAS to function smoothly as the Office of National Statistics in Egypt. In other words, CAPMAS become capable of assuming the role of “statistical manager” in the sense that it will produce statistics and co-ordinate the statistical work of all other actors. Within this context the possibility to shift the responsibility for national accounts to the Office of National Statistics (CAPMAS) should be considered as a realistic alternative. Since statistical data from almost all areas is used as inputs in the compilation of national accounts it would appear normal that the responsibility for national accounts be assigned to the Office of National Statistics (CAPMAS).

The changes in the internal organisation of CAPMAS should be about the functionalities for the departments with the management role limited to determine the overall implementation of methodologies and publishing.

Twinning (short term) experts will be engaged in drafting the agenda of the proposed Consultative Council.

Study visits will be organised for CAPMAS officials to visit corresponding institutions in EU Member States in order to gain knowledge about best practices in regard to the organization of statistics institutions.

1.3. Increase statistical awareness

Interaction with providers and users of statistics should be a priority for the new organisation. The use of questionnaire -based surveys to collect feedback from the users of official statistics including organisations representing enterprises (chambers) and professions (associations and trade unions) has to be successfully implemented by CAPMAS. Improved visibility of CAPMAS statistics by new techniques of presentation e.g. graphics and short tabulations as well as introducing regular press releases is essential for gathering media support. Punctuality in the presentation of results is also extremely important. The media use of statistics to convey the changes in economic activity and social conditions has to be encouraged through regular press conferences and press releases that easily fit in with printed format of newspapers.

A new design of the website will be able to provide: - Direct access to the latest and most complete coverage of subject specific statistics; - View online and download basic data, metadata, and analytical tables, graphs,

methodology and comments; - Alert system for communicating new data and adjustments to be made; - Availability of more than one language to choose from. Access to statistical data including electronic data file downloading will be accompanied with description of the data and guide to extraction from data bases including the metadata with

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developed software. This will be important step towards increasing user satisfaction of official statistics.

Introduction of new methodology for gathering data in any area of statistics is associated with estimates that are not comparable with the estimates made according to “historical” methods. Therefore, for purposes of comparison with “historical” data there should be possibilities for reconciliation between the revised and “historical” data. The offices of national statistics in EU Member States have established dissemination rules when such changes are introduced. These rules should be adopted by CAPMAS for publishing statistics.

Special attention should be made to increase awareness of the business registry especially for SMEs which comprise a large portion of the economy

Indicative activities foreseen Essential for reaching results is a good relationship with suppliers of primary source data on the one hand, and final users of statistics on the other. Twinning activities will include short term (MS) experts who will review current methods of communication with users and providers as well as with media and research institutions. the expert will also provid support for relevant recommendations for adopting new publishing standards and modern publishing including website.

1.4. Improvement of IT function

The current network architecture is composed of a number of Local Area Networks (LAN) using 10/100 Mbps Ethernet Technology at the central headquarters. Each of these LANs corresponds to;

- CAPMAS IT network is for the production of statistics;

- Geographical Information System network which supports the censuses and the surveys;

- Industrial Products Network is for statistics of industrial production;

- Misr-Intranet which disseminates statistics to different public and private institutions and international organizations; this service is a subscription-based service and can be accessed from the CAPMAS website.

Customs data on foreign trade in commodities are transferred to CAPMAS in paper format.

Statistical data in CAPMAS is spread across different Relational Database Management Systems.

The website is static in the sense that it does not allow search on line and preferred data output.

Few staff at the central office has access to the Internet and to electronic mail. This is due to the low bandwidth of the Internet connection and the statistical staff without experience in using modern information and communication technologies.

MEDSTAT2 procurement of IT equipment including application software together with training is designed to support the modernisation of the IT infrastructure at CAPMAS.

An optimum Information System architecture within CAPMAS and within the National Statistical System should be defined and could also contribute to a proper identification of equipment to be provided. This activity could be done in complement of MEDSTAT II.

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1.4.1. Data collection:

- Review current IT system and provide guidelines for building up the Intranet in which the central and regional offices are linked;

- Assess and provide guidelines to enable electronic data transmission from data providers by designing electronic file format (file data structure, way of transmission e.g. e-mail, ftp, CD-ROM, frequency of file exchange);

- Identify training needs for IT personnel;

1.4.2. Data processing:

- Identify new software applications for data quality control (automatic verification and validation);

- Review and provide recommendations for upgrade of statistical databases which include metadata, data warehouse and data mining; the design of the data -based statistical business registry is included in these activities;

- Evaluate current practices and provide guidelines for data protection (confidentiality) policy and network security;

- Identify training needs for IT personnel.

1.4.3. Data dissemination:

- Review Special Dissemination Standards (SDDS) current website and recommend upgrade in architecture, output database, download format and web applications;

- Identify training needs for IT personnel.

Twinning assistance for all 3 sub-activities will be arranged through training on site and study visits for national experts in these fields to gain knowledge from the practices in corresponding institutions in EU Member States.


Where needed, coordination with MEDSTAT sectors National Accounts and Trade in goods and services should be ensured.

The current reform efforts in Egypt require the build up of the organizational capacity of CAPMAS to produce and publish high quality statistics according to the legal acts. The statistics that need to be developed or at least reviewed for possible improvements supported by a twinning project have been formulated around 6 components.

Study visits will be organized in relation to subcomponent 2.3 and 2.6. Other study tours may be organized if deemed necessary.

2.1. Improvement of national accounts

The data sources for compiling national accounts have not been reviewed for sometime. The extent of under-reporting and under-coverage has not been analysed as of date. Since the quality of national accounts is depending on the quality of statistical source data so far collected by the various sectoral Ministry and complied/assembled by the former Planning Ministry, there is an immediate need of making an assessment of the current situation and developing a plan of action for improvements. In this process it is advisable to review the

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methodology for compiling investment data and to propose changes in methodology if necessary. Until now investment data (and national accounts in general) are compiled by the ministry of Economic Development the former Planning Ministry, which used to be in charge of the capital budget of the state).

Indicative activities foreseen Short term (MS) experts will evaluate the overall situation starting with latest adjustments and provide recommendations for revising based on alternative source data, volume/value measurement and set up of sub-accounts etc. Problems encountered in estimation and methods of analysing consistency of source data including investments will be addressed as well. The experts will also include a review of the publishing standards for national accounts and make recommendations for adjustments.

2.2. Adjustment of statistics of foreign trade in goods to international standards

Statistical compilation is based on Customs declarations (SAD). Customs use their own software (developed in association with the French supplier BULL and updated with PowerBuilder on a Sybase database) for processing the information (value, quantity of arrivals and despatches, country of origin and destination, coding of commodities etc.). Then, CAPMAS officials located in each Custom office around the points of entry and despatch in Egypt use the EUROTRACE software to re-key the customs data for statistical purposes.

Despatches and arrivals within the economic free trade zones for further processing are not included in the customs declarations. These zones are not considered to be part of Egyptian territory and declarations are not collected. This practice is not in compliance with European and international standards. The General Authority of Free Zones and Investments (GAFI) has now collected this kind of data at the HS 2-digit level. This source material can be useful for re-conciliation studies about trade balances with trading partners. Also, the treatment of arrivals that is stored in warehouses (temporary admission) when released should enter the foreign trade statistics. The Customs of Egypt have recently set up a new statistical unit in an attempt to capture the data on ways that meet with international standards. UNCTAD has provided the Customs Office of Egypt with a proposal to install and use the ASYCUDA World software for data entering and compilation of tables based on Customs declarations. The Egyptian Customs is expected to respond shortly. Overall, data collection requires the involvement of Customs in order to achieve quality results. The foreseen new statistical law has to address the 2 issues: function and role of gathering (Customs Office) on the one hand, and compiling and publishing (Office of National Statistics) on the other.

Indicative activities foreseen Statistics of foreign trade in commodities has to be compiled from datasets that are complete, error-free, and without extreme values (outliers). The data should be classified according to European and international standards that facilitate comparisons without a need to resort to re-conciliation efforts that are time consuming. Drafting recommendations for inter-agency co-ordination based on the foreseen new statistical law will be the task of twinning assistance with short term (MS) experts.

A group of short term (MS) experts together with national experts from CAPMAS and Customs, will review current practices and provide guidelines for adjustments to meet with European and international standards. They will provide practical rules for error detection and correction. Furthermore, they will initiate and participate in a re-conciliation study of the data on which previously produced statistics are based, in order to make comparisons and

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adjustments of “historical” time series. However, this twinning activity has to take into account the any changes in the law that would put Customs in charge of collecting and disseminating external trade statistics in goods instead of CAPMAS.

Study visits will be organised to corresponding institutions in EU Member States.

2.3. Compilation of producer price index (PPI)

The PPI is not compiled in compliance with European and international standards and it is not a prioritised area of statistics. However, the PPI is important because it measure the price movements of intermediate goods flow in the national economy. Properly composed, PPI captures the price movements of goods produced and sold for an economic activity (branch) in the domestic market. A major user of PPI is the national accounts system for calculations of the value and volume of production in different economic activities before value added is estimated. Therefore, prioritisation is more or less compulsory when it comes to PPI.

PPI need to be compiled in compliance with European and international standards in order to measure changes in the real costs of domestic production and to compare them over time and across borders.

Indicative activities foreseen Short term (MS) experts together with national experts will review the current practice and provide methodological guidelines for PPI compilation including quality control and statistical analysis methods.

2.4. Adjustment of consumer price index (CPI)

The appropriate changes that are necessary for compilation of the consumer price index in compliance with European and international standards were first identified by IMF in 2003. In 2006 IMF evaluated the progress made since then and identified the need for further improvements together with a work plan for updating CPI (IMF/METAC: Report on the assessment of the current situation and need for improvement).

CPI has to reflect the price changes averaged over basket of goods that households buy on a regular basis. The way of improvement is to adjust the weights in order to reflect the current situation in the market place and consumer outlays for a define period of time. Building up the CPI has to be based on sound methodology and the EU recommendations are useful in this respect.


Short term (MS) experts together with national experts will review the methodology of CPI compilation as currently practiced and propose recommendations for more accurate capture of the average change in price of the basket of goods commonly purchased by households. The activities will include development of methodology for implementation of a new survey, or adjustments of existing survey including quality control and statistical analysis methods. The recommendations of the IMF/METAC will be taken into account as well as work under way with the IMF assistance.

2.5. Statistical business registry system and use of administrative data sources

The statistical business registry is essential for establishing an updated sampling frame to reach businesses that have to respond to questions. There is no reliable statistical business registry at CAPMAS. The business registry that exist today is by and large technical

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registration of the censuses information at a given time point. The census is carried out every 10 years (and this is the 13th) and the data capture is firstly, identification of the building and the households and businesses in them. Secondly, data capture is about the household (family status) and businesses (accounting data). The census data is not used for creating registries (household and businesses) for further use e.g. sampling frame for design of surveys, studies on business demography etc.

The taxation authority in Egypt is in the process of introducing a fiscal tax identifier (ID-number that is unique for each legal entity). The identifier will allocate a unique identification code for each legal entity similar to the VAT identifier in EU Member States. In turn, the tax identifier should be used to clarify the business units in the foreseen statistical business registry. In addition, the tax authority should be informed about the needs for collecting additional information from the business entities that are relevant for statistical purposes e.g. major area of economic activity by entering the classification code and number of employees etc. Effective inter-agency cooperation will be crucial for gathering such information.

The Free Zone areas are not included in the census data and consequently businesses and their local unit are not accounted for in the current surveys of economic activities. Information about these businesses and their local units has to be included in the business registry.

For success, it is necessary to carry out preparatory work in designing the registry data base. The census data has to be validated with the tax returns and this should be done by matching the business unit with a tax identifier. The next step is to identify possible administrative sources besides the tax returns for validating entries (businesses) in the data base. The exercise when properly done will provide a sound basis for establishing an update business registry that is useful for defining the sampling frame in order to switch from full coverage to sampling. The registry should have access to the statistical classification and nomenclature codes to validate entries in the data base, or as an alternative to have the codes in the business registry itself. Studies on business demography (regional perspective) will have to be initiated. Indicative activities foreseen

It is foreseen that statistical laws have to empower CAPMAS to access directly the administrative sources (government authorities) and this activity will be included under the twinning activities for legislative improvement.

Short term (MS) experts together with national experts will design the registry structure and identify the information to be entered in the registry. This will also include the services of IT expertise to design the data base. They will also deliver training relevant for use of the classification and nomenclature codes as well as about the methods and procedures of maintenance of the registry. Support and knowledge of gathering and entering data from business entities that is useful for demographic (structural studies) will be provided.

Study visits will be organised to a well developed business registry in a corresponding EU Member State.

3.5. Means

The following staff inputs will be provided by the twinning partner:

3.5.1. Profile and task of the Project Leader PL The project leader will be responsible for the overall conception and direction of the MS involvement in the twinning project. The PL should have a sound knowledge in the statistics sector and EU related directives as well as possess leadership skills. These types of

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qualifications can only have been gained through management experience at a high level post in an institute of statistics in a MS. The project leader will be expected to spend a minimum of 3 days per month, providing project direction. It is also envisaged that there at least one visit to the beneficiary organization every three months will be a requirement. The project leader will be a member of the project steering committee. The PL will be expected to have the following qualifications: - Hold a senior position at an institute of Statistics - Thorough knowledge of EU directives particularly those related to statistics - Excellent inter-personal and leadership skills - Previous experience in project coordination/management in similar projects - Excellent written and spoken command of the English language - Work experience in Egypt or Neighbourhood countries will be an advantage

3.5.2. Profile and task of the Resident Twinning Advisor RTA

The RTA will be seconded for 24 months (the duration of the project activities). The RTA, under the guidance of the PL, will lead the work of the team and will work on a daily basis with BC staff to implement the project, to support and co-ordinate the activities in the BC and to ensure continuity of implementation.

The RTA should have experience in dealing with a wide range of statistical areas and should have excellent knowledge of project management and inter-personal skills.

The RTA will work in the premises of CAPMAS and will have contacts with the CAPMAS staff and staff of all other institutions involved for each individual subproject area in a coordinated way with the CAPMAS RTA counterpart.

The tasks of the RTA should include: - Overall supervision of the project implementation and coordination of all activities - co-operating in a team spirit with the beneficiary staff when setting up support

mechanisms and elaborating approaches for monitoring the achievements - Management of the project administration - Team leader of the Medium and Short-Term experts - Advice on management and organisation of CAPMAS - Professional support with project activities including organisation of study tours - maintaining close relations with MEDSTAT2 to co-ordinate linked project activities - counselling CAPMAS management on the most rational and appropriate alternatives to

adopt in recommending solutions and options for implementing activities - reporting about the status and progress made and possible problems faced and solutions to

be adopted to overcome delays, difficulties or gaps in projects implementation - providing recommendations regarding the improvement for projects success

The RTA is expected to ensure, together with the BC administration, the achievement of the general and specific objectives and the achievement of the results of the twinning project

The RTA will be expected to have the following qualifications: - Fluency in English is compulsory - Excellent knowledge and understanding of statistical processes

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- Originate from an EU Member State office of national statistics having at least 15 years professional experience in statistical areas of which a significant amount should have been in national accounts and in areas directly related to the twinning activities.

- knowledge in management of team of international expertise - knowledge of EU guidelines and manuals in statistics - Knowledge of EU statistical framework and legislation.

In addition to the above mentioned, priority is given to good communication skills and report writing. Knowledge of the region will be an asset.

RTA Assistant

The RTA will have an Assistant, who will support him in the performance of his duties during the entire project period. She/He should be well aware of the local conditions and support the PL, RTA and STEs during the project period.

The RTA assistant is expected to have the capability to: - translate from Arabic to English and vice versa; - act as interpreter in discussions with stakeholders in the project; - give advice and assistance for travelling schedules, ticket and hotel reservations etc; - excellent computer skills; - assist in the work with drafting of financing and activity reports; - excellent communication skills;

It is expected that the RTA assistant have relevant academic degree and training to succeed in above mentioned tasks.

3.6.2 Profile and task of the short term (MS) experts

The tasks and profile of the short term (MS) experts will be elaborated by the selected twinning partner and agreed to with the beneficiary. In general terms the task of the short term (MS) experts are to provide knowledge of the EU best practices and monitoring support to counterparts. They will work closely with the counterparts to perform their specific activities and use their experiences to ensure transfer of knowledge in practical ways.

The exact number of short term (MS) experts will depend on the tasks to be performed. Detailed job description will be elaborated together with the RTA and beneficiary. The following tasks are envisaged for the key short term (MS) experts:

Experts in the development of statistical policy

10 - 15 years experiences from corresponding institution in EU Member States to: - Review current legislation (statistical laws, ordinances and instructions) - Draft the new statistical laws, ordinances and instruction based on best practices of the EU - Design the appropriate strategy for developing CAPMAS to assume the role of the Office

of national Statistics in Egypt - Define the managerial framework for CAPMAS with experiences from EU - Define the functions that are necessary for increasing public awareness of statistics - Support the short term IT expert to design the website including electronic data file

downloading.

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Experts in development of specific statistics

10 - 15 years experiences from corresponding institution in EU Member States to: - Evaluate the current practices in national accounts and recommend changes including

publishing standards - Evaluate the current status of the statistics of foreign trade in commodities and provide

guidelines for adjustments to EU standards and re-conciliation studies with important trading partners

- Review current methodology of PPI compilation and provide guidelines for adjustments according to EU standards and quality control methods of the results

- Review current methodology of CPI compilation and provide guidelines for adjustments according to EU standards and quality control methods of the results

- Draw up the guidelines for creating the statistical business register based on EU recommendations

Experts in IT functions for statistical production and publishing

At least 10 years experiences from corresponding institution in EU Member States to:

- Evaluate the needs of IT equipment and application software for data collection, processing and dissemination

- Provide recommendations for identifying the procurement needs of equipment and software

- Organise delivery of training for IT staff on intranet build up and network security and web applications.

4. Institutional Framework

The beneficiary institution is the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), an independent agency affiliated to the Ministry of Planning and Local Development. It is envisaged that the project will result in a change in the institutional setup including organizational structures.

Currently all ministries are considered direct stakeholders to CAPMAS. The proposed legislative reform will define the roles, responsibilities and relations among different stakeholders.

5. Budget

The maximum estimated budget for this twinning project is € 1,600,000

6. Implementation Arrangements

6.1. Implementing Agency

The Programme Administrative Office at the Ministry of International Cooperation is in charge of the coordination of all activities and the administrative management of the Support to the Association Agreement Programme. The PAO will be the responsible institution for the management of this twinning project. It manages the tenders, contracts and payments in accordance with the procedures of ex-ante control defined in the Practical Guide to contract procedures financed from the general Budget of the EC in the context of external actions.

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Contact person at the PAO:

Mrs. Dalia Mostafa Salem Programme Deputy Director 9, Abd El Kadar Hamza Street, Garden City, apt/401, Cairo, Egypt Tel: +202 2792 34 38 Fax: +202 2792 05 83 E-mail:[email protected]

6.2. Responsible Institution in the Beneficiary Country: CAPMAS is the direct beneficiary of the project. CAPMAS will nominate a BC Project Leader for contacts at all levels within CAPMAS and with the relevant institutions outside of CAPMAS including the donor community. There will be also the RTA who will be seconded to CAPMAS and RTA counter part from the BC.

Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) Salah Salem Street, OBOR Bldgs Naser City, Cairo Principal Co-ordinator: Mr. Yasser Ali Tel : 0020 2 342 78 34 Cell : 0020 10 341 50 49 E-mail : [email protected] and [email protected]

7. Implementation Schedule

7.1. Launching of the call for Proposals September 2007

7.2. Start of project activities May 2008

7.3. Project completion July 2010 (27 months)

7.4. Duration of the implementation period (24 months)

8. Sustainability The transfer of knowledge by institutional twinning with a corresponding EU institution is expected to provide sustainable developments; this is envisaged if the results outlined are fully achieved. To maximise sustainability there must be a particular focus on the maintaining leadership by CAPMAS management and continuous training programmes.

9. Crosscutting issues

9.1. Equal Opportunity

Reform of national statistics is a cross cutting issue to all reform areas. The Egyptian government seeks through its Five-Year Plan (2007-12) as well as through recent policy orientations to strengthen governance measures to ensure transparency, accountability and efficiency of its development interventions.

Statistical data are crucial underpinnings not only for monitoring and evaluation but also for future policy formulation, particularly as regards to poverty targeting in marginalized areas, sustaining national efforts to reduce regional and gender disparities.

It is important to note that improved access of statistical data will improve policy communication and citizens' participation in decision making processes.

mailto:[email protected]



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9.2. Project environment

10. Conditionality and sequencing The project is conditional on top management having started a reform process legislative changes and introduction of a new management framework as well as involvement and co-operation with all statistical authorities.

10.1. Project readiness The Egyptian government has initiated the need to draft a new information law that will include parts about reaching a consensus for statistical production, publishing and visibility.

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Annex 1 Logical framework matrix Project Title: Developing the organisational capacity of CAPMAS

Overall objective Objectively verifiable indicators Sources of verification Risks and assumptions

To Contribute to the development of a policy for statistical information in Egypt by adjustment of statistical law(s) and build up of organisational capacity at CAPMAS to function as Office of National Statistics in Egypt.

- The whole/partial adoption of main principles of statistical policy

- Legislative enactment, or legal acts are drafted

- CAPMAS role defined within the adopted statistical policy to function as the Office of National Statistics

- Enacted, or adjustment to laws

- Suggested framework of the official national statistical players

- Official statements

- Reports/bulletins

- Website information

- Political commitment towards reform of official statistics' regulatory, legislative and institutional framework

- Timely decisions about the enactment of laws, ordinances and regulations

Specific objective Objectively verifiable indicators Sources of verification Risks and assumptions

- To support in preparing the draft statistical laws and build up the organisational capacity of CAPMAS to function as the Office of National Statistics to produce and publish high quality statistics and as an extension to increase statistical awareness

- To Support in building up the organizational capacity of CAPMAS to produce, publish and disseminate high quality statistics as well as to increase statistical awareness in general.

- Draft new statistical laws, ordinances and regulations

- Role of the consultative council for regulating, planning and co-ordination of official statistics is well defined

- Register/description of all statistical authorities, their roles and their products is prepared

- Action Plan as regards internal institutional changes is prepared

- New organisational structure of CAPMAS is in place

- Legal acts angovernmental regulations

d - Stakeholders are sufficiently committed to the reform strategy and actively participate in the consultative council

- MS assessment and reports

- Internal memos

- Agreement/memorandum of understanding between statistical authorities

- Information from statistical authorities

- CAPMAS internal

- State budget allocations for adjustment of organisational structure and new recruitment of staff.

- Commitment to implement action plans in time

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- To improve certain statistical areas based on scientific principles that meet national demands and European standards

- improve IT function in support of statistical production and publishing

- Mandated responsibilities for internal division of labour within CAPMAS is prepared

- Visibility actions are outlined

- Official statistics of the selected statistical areas are improved and updated in accordance to EU/International standards

- Action Plan for improvement of IT functions is prepared

annual plan/quarterly progress

- Press releases/coverage

- Visibility actions

- Website information

- Commitment to activate the regulatory legislative amendments

Results Objectively verifiable indicators Sources of verification Risks and assumptions

Development of a statistical policy and approximation of laws, ordinances and regulations ready to be accepted by the government. Organisational and HR reform measures are adopted at CAPMAS The main principles of the European Statistics Code of Practice are introduced at CAPMAS. Action plan for promoting awareness of statistics among suppliers, users and citizens.

- National statistical policy aims , and expected results are well defined

- Defined role of CAPMAS as Office of National Statistics in Egypt

- Defined role of public authorities in statistics in their respective jurisdictions

- Improved awareness of CAPMAS' role among other statistical players, as well as awareness of the official statistics and their role in economic and social welfare

- Improved awareness of the

- Governmental notices

- MS reports

- Progress reports

- Press releases


- Publications

- The official website

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developed statistical areas

- Statistics published with analysis of data according to the specified dissemination standards and disclosure regulations

- Web based metadata information system is in place

Improved IT function;

- Integrated IT function for central and regional offices with MS operating system and Office introduced.

- Improved data processing at central and regional offices

- Improved capacity of website

- Developed IT functions and staff trained to use new system and application software

- Intranet with data security set up and trained staff

- Improved website access satisfaction

- MS reports

- Progress reports

- Intranet reports

- Number of trained employees to the new system/software

- Regular web-trend statistics and surveys

Timely supply of IT equipment including software and WAN connections.

Improved statistics in certain areas;

- National accounts

- Foreign trade statistics

- PPI

- CPI

- Statistical Business Registry

- Methodologies for adjusting the statistical areas are adopted

- Dissemination standards of the improved areas are in place

- Methodologies for creating the Statistical Business Registry, with use of census data and external administrative data, are defined and adopted

- MS reports

- MS Dissemination standards

- Progress reports

- Assessment reports of international organisations

- Press releases and Press coverage


- Publications / website

- Awareness about quality improvements.

- Motivation of staff.

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Activities Means Risks and assumptions

Component 1 Support to the development of a statistical policy - Improvement of statistical

legislations: - Identify laws and draft new laws - Study tour Organizational Reform: - Assess current management

structure CAPMAS and propose changes

- Study tour Increase Statistical Awareness - Propose new methods for increasing

statistical awareness Improvement of IT function in support of statistical production and publishing: - Build up CAPMAS intranet - Improve staff skills in data

warehousing and data mining, data quality and data security

- Improve capacity of website

- Law issues 2 MS experts total estimated time 3 man months each

- Study tour for 3 BC experts to 2 MS countries for 7 CD (calendar days) each

- Organisational issues 2 MS experts total estimated time 2 man months each

- Study tour for 3 BC experts to 2 MS countries for 7 CD each

- Awareness issues 2 MS experts total estimated time 1 man months each


- IT in networking, data processing, website development 3 MS experts total estimated time 1 man month each

- Training 5 MD


- Motivation of staff

- Recruitment of new staff

- New equipment and software

Component 2 Development of certain statistics: - National accounts

- National accounts 2 MS experts total estimated time 2 man

- Motivation of staff

- Recruitment of new staff

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- Foreign trade in goods and adjustments to international standards

- Producer price index (PPI) - Consumer price index (CPI) and

adjustments to international standards

- Statistical business registry system and use of administrative data sources

months each

- Foreign trade 1 MS expert estimated time 1 man month


- Producer price index 1 MS expert estimated time 2.5 man months

- Consumer price index 1 MS expert estimated time 2.5 man month

- Economic indicators 2 MS experts total estimated time 1.5 man months each

- Non observed economy 2 MS experts total estimated time 1 man month each

- Road transport 1 MS expert estimated time 1 man month

- Optional: Study tour for 3 BC experts to 1 MS countries for 7 CD each

- Statistical business registry 2 MS experts total estimated time 2 man months each


- New equipment and software

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ANNEX 2 Indicative Implementation Timetable for the Project Institutional Strengthening of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics - CAPMAS

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Launching x x x Contracting x x x x x x Implementation x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

twinning project fiche for institutional … · 2. put in place a solid administrative and...

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