tv ratings scan – 2q14 in focus +longtermgrp+ cimb oct13

7/27/2019 TV ratings scan 2Q14 in focus +longtermgrp+ CIMB OCT13

1/14

October 10, 2013

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA

INDIAMEDIA - OVERALL SHORT TERM (3 MTH) LONG TERM

SECTOR FLASH NOTE

TV ratings scan 2Q14 in focusIn 2Q14, slower ad revenue growth on weak economy/seasonality andrupee weakness (relevant for print) are the main challenges. The 3Q14festive season is now key for FY14 visibility. We rate the sector Neutraland prefer print stocks that offer better risk-reward than broadcasters.

Figure 1: Key 2QFY14 forecasts for our coverage universe

Company

(Rs mn)

(YoY) (QoQ) (YoY) (QoQ) (YoY) (QoQ)

Zee 10,502 10.1 7.9 2,579 24.0 -8.8 2,040 8.7 -9.2

Sun TV - Standalone 4,885 12.7 -18.8 2,548 18.4 7.8 1,761 16.1 7.1

Dish TV- Standalone 5,931 11.2 2.9 132 460.7 - -112 - -

DB Corp 4,316 14.1 -4.0 869 21.2 -25.7 577 18.7 -24.2

Jagran - Stanalone 3,836 19.1 -0.3 702 13.1 -17.2 476 -31.4 -19.8

HT Media 5,215 2.1 -3.6 371 14.9 -33.7 370 11.1 -20.7

Eros 1,663 -27.5 -10.7 350 -13.7 -8.4 242 -7.2 -17.5

Sales EBIT Recurring PAT

2QFY14 % Chg 2QFY14 % Chg 2QFY14 % Chg

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Over the past fewweeks, Zees ratingstrends have been favourable due to: a)good slot rankings for most of its TVshows; b) a pick-up in movie ratingsdue to new channel &Pictures launch;and c) uptick in regional performance,led by Zee Marathi. Sun appears tohave stabilised its network ratingswith its continued dominance inTamil (c.60% share) and the arrest ofits slide in Kannada GEC, but TeluguGEC remains in a spot of bother. Ourtop picks are Jagran and DB Corp.

What HappenedIn 2Q14, we expect aggregate toplinegrowth (ex-one offs) of 11% and anEBIT margin uptick of 187bp.

Broadcasters Zee and Sun will likelyreport revenue growth moderating to10-13%, on a slowdown in ad spendand uncertainty around the transitionto lower ad inventory. However EBITmargin for both should expand byc250bp yoy as cost inflation should belargely in check. We expect Dish TVto report a modest 11% yoy growth, onlacklustre subscriber additions, whileEBIT margins should recover fromseveral one-offs in 1Q14. For printmedia, we forecast like-for-like ad

revenue growth of 6-16% (slowdownfrom 10-20% growth in 1Q14), withDB Corp again leading the pack whileHT Medias English business wouldbe a significant drag. We expect a qoq

margin drop of 324-594bp driven bylower revenues and higher newsprintcosts. Commentary on festive seasonspending, which kicks off in earlyOctober, will be key to determiningearnings trajectory for the sector.

What We ThinkWith overall spends becomingsubdued, the focus on ratings sharebecomes even more important. Overthe past quarter, Zee continued todeliver solid ratings, particularlydriven by the launch of new moviechannel &Pictures and robustregional bouquet performance led byZee Marathi. Zee TV continued toperform consistently with most of its

shows occupying #1/2 primetime slotpositions. Sun TV has also stabilisedits network, with qoq gains inKannada and Malayalam, while Tamiland Kannada have been largely stable.Nevertheless, we remain watchful oncompetition in the primetime GECslots in Kannada and Telugu.

What You Should DoWe retain our Neutral stance on thesector. With broadcasters continuingto trade at rich valuations despiteunderlying deterioration in ad spend,

we retain our Underperform ratingson Zee and Sun. We find better valuein print media, and prefer regionalpure plays Jagran and DB Corp.

CIMB Analyst(s)

Srinivas SESHADRI

T (91) 22 6602 5160E [email protected]

Anubhav JAINT (91) 22 6602 5161E [email protected]

Highlighted Companies

Zee EntertainmentWe have an Underperform rating on Zee, with aRs230 target price. We believe ratings normalisation,new investment plans and underlying weakeconomic environment are not supportive of richvaluations.

Sun TV NetworkWe have an Underperform rating on Sun TV with atarget price of Rs430. A key concern is risingcompetition from national players that may hurt itsratings and advertising growth.

Jagran PrakashanWe have an Outperform rating on Jagran with atarget price of Rs130. Local revenue centres and thescaling-up of acquisitions and smaller brands willdrive growth.

DB CorpWe have an Outperform rating on DB Corp with atarget price of Rs322. DB has a strong leadershipposition in key states, where elections in FY14 shouldbe an additional near-term tailwind for ad revenues.


2/14

MEDIA - OVERALLc to er ,

2

Figure 2: Valuation comparison of Indian media companies

Company BB ticker

M-Cap

(US$m) Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Reco

FY14F FY15F FY14F FY15F FY14F FY15F FY14F FY15F

Broadcasters

Zee Entertainment Z IN 3,803 242 230 Underperform 27.4 25.6 21.2 16.2 25.0% 32.8% 1.2% 1.4%

Sun TV Network SUNTV IN 2,726 424 430 Underperform 21.2 17.4 14.2 11.6 26.7% 28.6% 2.4% 2.6%

TV18 Broadcast TV18 IN 583 21 na Not Rated 48.2 20.2 26.1 13.1 2.9% 5.5% 0.2% 1.0%

Entertainment India Network ENIL IN 219 282 na Not Rated 17.6 15.7 11.6 10.4 14.1% 13.6% 0.3% 0.4%

Median 24.3 18.8 17.7 12.3 19.5% 21.1% 0.8% 1.2%

Cable & DTH

Dish TV India DITV IN 911 52 64 Outperform nm 51.6 596.1 41.6 nm nm 0.0% 1.0%

Den Networks DEN IN 383 160 na Not Rated 32.8 14.4 17.9 10.0 6.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Hathway Cable HATH IN 651 269 na Not Rated 130.5 30.3 31.9 17.6 2.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Median 81.7 30.3 31.9 17.6 4.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Print

DB Corp DBCL IN 773 250 322 Outperform 15.6 13.2 13.9 11.5 26.6% 28.2% 2.4% 2.8%

Jagran Prakashan JAGP IN 428 80 130 Outperform 12.4 9.7 8.7 6.9 20.9% 24.2% 4.4% 5.6%

HT Media HTML IN 336 87 128 Outperform 11.3 9.0 9.0 7.2 15.5% 18.0% 1.1% 2.3%

Median 12.4 9.7 9.0 7.2 20.9% 24.2% 2.4% 2.8%

Movie distribution/exhibition

Eros International EROS IN 220 145 168 Outperform 8.0 6.3 6.5 4.9 15.9% 17.5% 1.0% 1.4%

PVR PVRL IN 327 505 na Not Rated 29.1 21.2 16.2 12.7 11.5% 14.0% 0.3% 0.4%

Median 18.5 13.7 11.3 8.8 13.7% 15.7% 0.7% 0.9%

Sector Median 21.2 16.6 15.2 11.5 15.5% 17.5% 0.7% 1.2%

PER(x) EV/EBIT(x) ROE(%) Div yield(%)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS, BLOOMBERG

NOTE: Priced at close of business,10th October. Bloomberg consensus estimates for TV18 Broadcast ,Entertainment India Network, Den Networks, Hathway Cable and PVR; CIMB estimates for others

Calculations are performed using EFA Monthly Interpolated Annualisation and Aggregation algorithms to December year ends


3/14

MEDIA - OVERALLOctober 10, 2013

3

2Q14 preview : Ad spend slowdown and rupee depreciationare key issues

We expect an 8.5% yoy increase in advertising revenue for our coverage

universe given the higher base yoy, sharp currency depreciation during thequarter leading to controlled ad spend by advertisers, and some impact ofinventory cuts (especially in Sun) due to TRAIs 10+2 rule. Operating marginsfor most of the players should decline qoq driven by slower ad revenue growthand the sharp currency depreciation. With the slowing ad spend amid aweaker economy, a positive commentary on the ad spend outlook for 3Q14,given the festive season, will be crucial to support our current revenueforecasts.

We expect a mixed ad growth trend among the broadcasters. While Zee shouldreport a decent 13% yoy growth (ex-sports) driven by improvements inviewership share in regional channels and movie channels (augmented by the&Pictures launch), Sun should report an 8% yoy growth, impacted by priceactions in its key flagship channels to offset the inventory cut and some

slowdown in the economy. EBIT margins for Sun (ex-IPL) would see amarginal drop qoq (+250bp yoy), while Zee should report a 450bp qoq(+274bp yoy) decline due to the launch of new channels Zee Anmol and&Pictures in 2Q14.

Print players in our coverage universe are expected to report a 9.9% yoygrowth in 2Q14. DB Corp should lead the pack with a 16% growth, while HTMedia should report a 5.8% growth yoy, dragged down by the slow recovery inEnglish print ad revenues. Our checks indicate that sectors like financialservices are experiencing continued weakness, while seasonal spendingcategories like autos and consumer durables have witnessed seasonalweakness due to the delay in the onset of the festive season this year. Weexpect significant margin headwinds due to the revenue growth slowdown andsharp currency depreciation impacting raw material cost, but the quantum ofthe impact will vary among the players.

For Dish TV, we expect continued sluggish gross adds of 0.35m due to higherSTB prices and weak economic environment and a 1.5% qoq increase in ARPU.However, margins should rebound qoq given a lot of bunching up of costsduring the previous quarter.

EROS released only three mid-small budget Hindi movies during the quarter.Hence, we forecast a 10.7% qoq (28% decline yoy due to higher base) dip inrevenues. However, EBIT margin at 21% should be a good outcome driven bythe huge success of one movie which crossed Rs1bn in net collections, as wellas the significant contributions from catalogue movie sales.

Figure 3: Viewership share of flagship channels - Zee Entertainment

Property Peer group

2Q14 1Q14 2Q13 qoq change (bps) yoy change (bps)

Zee TV Top 6 Hindi GEC 19.7% 19.0% 18.5% 70bp 124bp

Zee Cinema Top 4 Hindi movie channels 29.6% 31.9% 27.9% -237bp 166bp

Zee Bangla Top 3 Bengali GEC 39.7% 39.7% 41.1% -5bp -141bp

Zee Marathi Top 3 Marathi GEC 39.9% 39.1% 27.9% 81bp 1201bp

Zee Telugu Top 4 Telugu GEC 23.4% 24.6% 22.1% -111bp 134bp

Average viewership share

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system

NOTE: Above data is for Audience C&S4+ and respective territory; i.e Hindi speaking markets for Zee TV and Zee Cinema, West

Bengal for Zee Bangla and so on; Time slot for analysis is weekday (19:00-23:00) for Zee TV, Bangla and Marathi and Telugu. Wehave excluded IPL in Sony Max for the above analysis

Zee has gained viewership shareqoq for Zee TV and Zee Marathi.Zee Telugu has been anunderperformer while ZeeCinemas share loss qoq is largelydue to the seasonal impact of IPLon Sony Max

Zee Marathis viewership sharegain qoq is largely at the expense ofStar Pravah.


4/14


4

Figure 4: Viewership share of flagship channels - Sun TV

Property Peer group

2Q14 1Q14 2Q13 qoq change (bps) yoy change (bps)

SUN TV Tamil All Tamil Channels 59.7% 59.8% 64.4% -13bp -467bp

SUN TV Telugu All Telugu Channels 34.1% 33.1% 37.2% 97bp -308bp

SUN TV Kannada All Kannada Channels 38.3% 36.7% 40.8% 160bp -243bpSUN TV Malayalam All Malayalam Channels 32.4% 31.1% 31.6% 129bp 79bp


SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (CS4+, All day)

NOTE: Above data is for Audience C&S4+ and respective territory; i.e Tamil Nadu for Tamil channels, Andhra Pradesh for Telugu

channels and so on

Figure 5: CIMB India Media services coverage universe key financials, July-Sep 2013

Sep-13 Sep-12 Jun-13 Key assumptions and forecasts

(Rsm) yoy(%) qoq(%)

ZEE (Consolidated) Rating : Underperform TP : Rs 230

Revenue 10,502 9,535 9,733 10.1% 7.9%

EBIT 2,579 2,081 2,828 24.0% -8.8%

EBIT Margin (%) 24.6% 21.8% 29.1% 274bp -450bpRecurring PAT 2,040 1,877 2,246 8.7% -9.2%

EPS (Rs) 2.13 1.97 2.35 8.1% -9.5%

Ad revenues 5,413 5,281 5,301 2.5% 2.1%

Subscription revenues 4,639 3,950 4,241 17.5% 9.4%

SUN TV (Standalone) Rating : Underperform TP : Rs 430

Revenue 4,885 4,333 6,019 12.7% -18.8%

EBIT 2,548 2,152 2,363 18.4% 7.8%

EBIT Margin (%) 52.2% 49.7% 39.3% 250bp 1289bp We forecast 26% yoy growth in dist ribut ion revenues, driven by 33% growth in cable and 23% growth in DTH

Recurring PAT 1,761 1,517 1,644 16.1% 7.1%

EPS (Rs) 4.47 3.85 4.17 16.1% 7.1%

Ad revenues 2,640 2,445 2,790 8.0% -5.4%

Subscription revenues 1,557 1,240 1,480 25.6% 5.2%

DISH TV (Standalone) Rating : Outperform TP : Rs 64

Revenue 5,931 5,336 5,784 11.1% 2.5%

EBIT 132 24 -227 460.7% -

EBIT Margin (%) 2.2% 0.4% -3.9% 179bp 615bp

Recurring PAT -112 -213 -304 - -Reported EPS (Rs) -0.10 0.52 -0.29 - - We forecast EBIT margin pick up by 615bp qoq on lower programming and advertising costs

Gross subscriber additions (m) 0.35 0.48 0.35 -26.6% -0.3%

ARPU (Rs) 167 159 164 4.9% 1.5%

DB Corp(Consolidated) Rating : Outperform TP : Rs 322

Revenue 4,316 3,784 4,494 14.1% -4.0%

EBIT 869 717 1,171 21.2% -25.7%

EBIT Margin (%) 20.1% 19.0% 26.1% 118bp -591bp We expect cont inued healthy c irculat ion revenue growth of 15%, driven by hike in cover prices

Recurring PAT 577 486 761 18.7% -24.2%

EPS (Rs) 3.1 2.7 4.1 18.4% -24.2%

Print Ad revenues 3,065 2,642 3,253 16.0% -5.8%

Circulation revenues 803 700 767 14.8% 4.7%

Jagran Prakashan (Standalone) Rating : Outperform TP : Rs 130

Revenue 3,836 3,221 3,847 19.1% -0.3%

EBIT 702 621 848 13.1% -17.2%

EBIT Margin (%) 18.3% 19.3% 22.0% -96bp -372bp

Recurring PAT 476 694 593 -31.4% -19.8%

EPS (Rs) 1.44 2.20 1.79 -34.7% -19.8% We factor in Rs77m of translation loss on foreign currency borrowings and 23% tax rate

Print Ad revenues 2,614 2,196 2,665 19.0% -1.9%


HT Media (Consolidated) Rating : Outperform TP : Rs 128

Revenue 5,215 5,107 5,409 2.1% -3.6% W e forecast 6% yoy growth in ad revenues driven by 12% growth in Hindi and 3% growth in English print

EBIT 371 323 560 14.9% -33.7% We expect EBIT margin drop of 324bp qoq on weak revenue trend and rupee depreciation impact

EBIT Margin (%) 7. 1% 6.3% 10. 4% 79bp -324bp W e are fact oring in one-time gain of Rs100m on sale of HMVL subsidiary's shares

Recurring PAT 370 333 467 11.1% -20.7%

EPS (Rs) 1.58 1.42 2.03 11.4% -22.1%

Print Ad revenues 3,850 3,640 4,095 5.8% -6.0% We have not included the one-off income from sale of Burda in our estimates


EROS (Consolidated) Rating : Outperform TP : Rs 168

Revenue 1,663 2,293 1,863 -27.5% -10.7%

EBIT 350 406 382 -13.7% -8.4%

EBIT Margin (%) 21.1% 17.7% 20.5% 336bp 53bp

Recurring PAT 242 261 293 -7.2% -17.5%

EPS (Rs) 2.60 2.86 3.19 -9.1% -18.5%

Key things to watch out for are Ad revenue outlook for FY14, plans to counter DB's Bihar launch and and

measures to address rupee depreciation

EBIT margin expansion of 274bp yoy builds in operating leverage; qoq drop of 450bp builds in higher sports

losses and new launch expenses

We factor in sluggish 0.35m gross subs adds in 2Q14 due to higher STB prices, weak participation in DAS

conversion and subdued economic environment

EBIT margin should be up by a modest 118bp yoy as a large portion of operting leverage is neutralized by

higher newsprint costs

Key things to watch out for are Ad revenue outlook for FY14, more detail on B ihar launch and measures to

mitigate rupee depreciation impact

Key things to watch out for are updated movie release slate, cost inflation trends and traction in subscription

for HBO channels

Despite a soft quarter in terms of revenues, we expect margins to be up by 336bp yoy due to s trong

performance of one movie

During 2Q14, three mid-small budget Hindi movies were released, due to which revenues are likely to be

down qoq and yoy

The key things to watch for will be guidance on gross additions and ARPU increase in FY14 and potential

reaction to price cuts by competition

We expect a 1.5% ARPU increase qoq, driven by lag impact of pricing actions, partly offset by lower sports

subscription revenues

Change

Key things to watch for will be commentary on pricing/inventory cuts as well as monetization of cable

revenues from DAS markets

We forecast 250bp yoy margin improvement driven by healthy t opline growth, while on a qoq basis (ex-IPL)

we forecast a 91bp drop

We forecast a s lowdown in advertising revenue growth to 8% yoy due to slowdown in industry ad spend and

impact of price act ions on inventory offtake

We expect 13% yoy Ad revenue growth (ex-sports) factoring good performance of regional and Hindi movie

channels

We build in 21% yoy growth in domestic subscription revenues (due to DAS upside) and 10% growth ininternational subscriptions (due to currency tailwind)

Key things to watch for will be outlook on ad revenue growth given weak macro visibility and inventory cuts

and more colour on new business initiat ives

We forecast like-for-like ad revenue growth (including Nai Dunia) at 9.6% yoy driven largely by yield

improvement

EBIT margin should be down by 96bp yoy due to absorption of Nai Dunia losses and rupee depreciation,

offset by operating leverage

Key things to watch out for are Ad revenue outlook for 2HFY14, scale up of Nai Dunia and measures to

address rupee depreciation

We expect industry leading print ad revenue growth of 16% yoy with continued focus on yield improvement

and election related spend in its key states


On a qoq basis, Sun TV hasdelivered a better ratings share,particularly in Malayalam andKannada, while Tamil has been

largely stable at around 60%.

On a yoy basis, there is stillslippage in its ratings share acrossgenres, except for Malayalam.


5/14


5

Figure 6: TV ratings performance of flagship channels

Property Peer group

last 4 weeks previous 4 weeks year ago

Zee TV Top 6 Hindi GEC 21.1% 20.9% 19.0%

Zee Cinema Top 4 Hindi movie channels 28.2% 31.0% 27.1%

Zee Bangla Top 3 Bengali GEC 42.3% 41.1% 42.2%

Zee Marathi Top 3 Marathi GEC 44.0% 42.6% 28.1%

SUN TV Tamil All Tamil Channels 60.3% 60.5% 66.2%

SUN TV Telugu All Telugu Channels 33.8% 34.3% 37.1%

SUN TV Kannada All Kannada Channels 37.8% 38.4% 39.3%

SUN TV Malayalam All Malayalam Channels 33.3% 33.4% 32.6%



Zee Entertainments ratings trend

Figure 7: Weekly viewership share of primetime shows (19:00-21:00) of Zee in Top 6GECs

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Ek Muthi Aasmaan Sapna Suhane Ladakpan Ke Jodha Akbar Do Dil Bandhe Ek Dori Se

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Hindi speaking markets, C&S4+,Weekday)

Figure 8: Weekly viewership share of primetime shows (21:00-23:00) of Zee in Top 6GECs

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Pavitra Rishta Qubool Hai Khelti hai Zindagi Aankh Micholi Punar Vivah

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Hindi speaking markets, C&S4+,Weekday)

Zee has recently replaced 3 of the 4shows in 19:00-21:00 slot.

Zees new high-budget historicalshow Jodha Akbar at20:00-20:30 has moved up to the#1 spot with a viewership share of31%. All the other shows in the19:00-21:00 slots are ranked #2.

While Zee remains a weak #2 in the21:00-21:30 slot, it is a strong #2

behind Star Plus in the21:30-22:00 slot

Zee's new offering at the22:00-22:30 slot has not fared well,and it has slipped to #5 in that slot.


6/14


6

Figure 9: Viewership share of the Hindi movie channels

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Movies OK MAX ex IPL Star Gold Zee Cinema &Pictures

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Hindi speaking markets, C&S4+,All day)

NOTE: Set Maxs IPL viewership ratings have not been considered for this analysis

Figure 10: Top 10 movies by TVTs during fortnight ended 5th October 2013

Movie Channel

HFF AASHIQUI 2 SONY MAX

HFF 3 IDIOTS SONY MAX

HFF COMMANDO A ONE MAN ARMY Z Cinema

HFF EK THI DAAYAN SONY MAX

HFF SHIVA THE SUPER HERO 2 Z Cinema

HFF ROWDY RATHORE SONY MAX

HFF MUNNA BHAI M.B.B.S. SONY MAX

HFF VIVAH Z Cinema

HFF AUR EK ILZAAM SONY MAX

HFF EK THI DAAYAN SONY MAX SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Hindi speaking markets, C&S4+)

Figure 11: Weekly primetime viewership share of the top three Bengali GECs

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ETV Bangla Star Jalsha Zee Bangla SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (West Bengal,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Sony Max has moved up to the #1spot, driven by the showcase ofnewly-released movies.

Viewership share of &Pictures hasinched up to ~6% vs. 2-3% in thefirst two weeks since the launch.However, Zees overall share hasremained stable given the marginalloss of Zee Cinemas viewershipshare.

Star Gold continued to be #3 whileMovies OKs ratings have remainedsubdued at ~9%.

Sony Max captured seven slots inthe top 10 for the fortnightfeaturing new releases, followed byZee Cinema with three slots, whilenone of the Star Gold movies werein top 10.

Star Jalsha continued to maintainits winning gap against Zee Bangla.It has a viewership share of c.51%among the top 3 Bengali GECs.

ETV continued to be the laggardwith just a c.6% viewership share.


7/14


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Figure 12: Zee Entertainments viewership share in Bengali segment

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Share of Zee group in Bengali segment

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (West Bengal,, C&S4+, all day)

NOTE: The viewership share takes into consideration Zee Bangla and Zee Bangla Cinema

Figure 13: Weekly primetime viewership share of the top three Marathi GECs

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ETV Marathi Star Pravah Zee Marathi

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Maharashtra,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Figure 14: Zee Entertainments viewership share in Marathi segment

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Share of Zee group in Marathi segment

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (West Bengal,, C&S4+, all day)

NOTE: The viewership share takes into consideration Zee Marathi and Zee Talkies

Zee has been able to sustain itsratings share gain in recent weeks

but is below the peak level seen inJan 2013.

Zee Marathi has consolidated its #1spot and has widened its gap withStar Pravah.

Although ETV Marathi is still adistant #3, its ratings share has

been continuously inching up.

Zees share in the Marathi genre isat its high of c.44% driven bymaterial gains for Zee Marathi.


8/14


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Figure 15: Weekly viewership share of top six English movie channels

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HBO Movies Now PIX Star Movies WB Zee Studio SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (All India, AB15+, all day)

Sun TV Networks ratings trend

Figure 16: Weekly primetime viewership share of top four Tamil GEC channels

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Kalaignar TV Sun TV Vijay TV Zee Tamil

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Tamil Nadu,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Figure 17: Sun TVs share ofTamil channel viewership

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Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Tamil Nadu,, C&S4+, all day)

Star Movies still holds acomfortable #1 spot with a

viewership share of 28%, whileMovies Now has inched up to #2.

Zee Studio has ranked poorlyamong English movie channelsdespite having a reasonably goodlibrary of classics.

Among the top 4 Tamil GECs, SunTVs share has been dominant atc.77% over the past few weeks.

Viewership share for #2 Vijay TVhas settled at around 13%, whileZee Tamil was around 7%.

Given the dominance of Sun inTamil, it has become theindispensable platform to advertisein Tamil, and media plans aretypically built around Sun TV.

Sun Groups ratings share has beensteady at around 60% over the pastfew weeks.

Given the large contribution ofTamil channels (over 50%), it helpsprovide support to overall networkratings.


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Figure 18: Sun TVs share of Tamil channel viewership

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Eenadu TV Gemini TV Maa Telugu Zee Telugu

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Andhra Pradesh,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Figure 19: Sun TVs share of Telugu channel viewership

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Andhra Pradesh,, C&S4+, all day)

Figure 20: Weekly primetime viewership share of top four Kannada GEC channels

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

ETV Kannada Suvarna Udaya TV Zee Kannada

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Karnataka,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Sun Group's ratings share ataround 34% over the past 4 weeksis better than the weakperformance in primetime ratingsfor GEC.

This is because of the betterperformance of other Teluguproperties and strong content innon-primetime hours.

Udaya TV is the leader inKannnada GECs in the primetimeslot with a ratings share of 32%, amarginal lead over Suvarna at 31%.

Zee Kannada, after briefly climbingto #3, has again slipped to #4 witha 14% ratings share behind ETVKannada that has now inched up toaround 23%.

In the primetime Telugu GECratings, Gemini TV has been at #4over the past 4 weeks, with aratings share of around 21%, which

was among the weakest ever for thechannel.

Eenadu TV has emerged as #1 inthe primetime ratings for TeluguGEC channels with a share ofc.28%, followed by Maa TV and ZeeTelugu.


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Figure 21: Sun TVs share of Kannada channel viewership

30%

33%

36%

39%

42%

45%

48%

51%

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Karnataka,, C&S4+, all day)

Figure 22: Weekly primetime viewership share of top three Malayalam GEC channels

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Asianet Mazhavil Manorama Surya TV

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Kerela,, C&S4+, primetime (19:00-23:00))

Figure 23: Sun TVs share of Malayalam channel viewership

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jan

-11

Ma

r-11

May-11

Ju

l-11

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jan

-12

Ma

r-12

May-12

Ju

l-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan

-13

Ma

r-13

May-13

Ju

l-13

Sep-13

SOURCES: TAM Peoplemeter system (Kerela,, C&S4+, all day)

Sun group's share in the Kannadasegment at 38% has been range-

bound in the past few weeks.

Asianet continues to dominate, butratings share has come off a bit to60% in the weekday primetime

band.

Most of the ratings loss of Asianethas been captured by MazhavilManorama which has moved up toan 18% share, marginally behindSuns Surya TV at 22%.

Sun Group's share in Malayalamhas increased from 25% at the start

of 2013 to c.33%.

Malayalam is the only genre whereSun does not have a leadershipposition.


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Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)

Outperform/Buy/Trading Buy 49.8% 7.2%

Neutral 34.2% 5.1%

Underperform/Sell/Trading Sell 16.0% 4.8%

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 30 September 2013

1234 companies under coverage

Recommendation Framework #1 *

Stock SectorOUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevantbenchmark's total return.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expectedto perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian SecuritiesExchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outsidethe prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

Recommendation Framework #2 **

Stock SectorOUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12months.

OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better overthe next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12

months.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i)

an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better)or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returnsthat will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse overthe next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better overthe next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse overthe next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permittedfor the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.


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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2012.

AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AEONTS Good, AMATA - Very Good, ANAN not available, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent ,BBL - Excellent, BCH not available, BCP - Excellent, BEC - Very Good, BGH - not available, BJC Very Good, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET -Good, CENTEL Very Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, EGCO Excellent, ERWExcellent, GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD Very Good,IVL - Very Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Good, MAKROVery Good, MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent,ROBINS - Excellent, RS Excellent, SAMART Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Very Good, SRICHA notavailable, SSI not available, STA - Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Excellent, THCOM Very Good, TICON Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB -Excellent, TOP - Excellent, TRUE - Very Good, TTW Very Good, TUF - Very Good, VGI not available, WORK Good.

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