turning the six-party talks into a multilateral security framework for northeast asia by gilbert...

8/3/2019 Turning the Six-Party Talks into a Multilateral Security Framework for Northeast Asia by Gilbert Rozman

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2/21

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3/21

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4/21

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5/21


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6/21

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7/21

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8/21

7 4< T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

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9/21


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10/21

7 4: T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

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11/21


Z# Oahcdsd _|~g|dbho \ahcfhcb gcl g Eti|hig|d~gi J~gedr`~f

J`~ g i`cb |hed Oahcg rgs |`` sts}hoh`ts j |ad hc|d~cg|h`cgi sxs|deds|gnihsadl hc|ad sagl`r j he}d~hgihse |ag| agl zho|heh{dl |adh~ s|g|d|` dc|d~|ghc gcx c`|h`c j j`~ehcb g cdr hc|d~ld}dcldc| b~`t}hcb# H| agl nddc dqoitldl j~è |ad Tch|dl Cg|h`csrahid g ~te} ~dbhed hc \ghrgc dck`xdl Oahcgs sdg| hc |ad _dot~h|x O`tcohi# Tcld~|ad bthsd `j }~ìd|g~hgc hc|d~cg|h`cgihse) |ad _`zhd| Tch`c agl |~hdl |` dqd~ohsdadbde`cho o`c|~ì zd~ Oahcg gs h| lhl zd~ |ad~ sòhgihs| o`tc|~hds# Dzdc gsste}|h`c`j |ad TC sdg| rh|a zd|` }`rd~ hc |ad _dot~h|x O`tcohi gcl ~g}}~òadedc| rh|a |adTch|dl _|g|ds gcl |adc Kg}gc lhl c`| idssdc h|s sts}hoh`cs |ag| |ad o`cs|~ghc|s `j geti|hig|d~gi ~bgch{g|h`c) }g~|hotig~ix cd o`cod~cdl rh|a sdot~h|x) r til d~ ld Oahcgss`zd~dhbc|x# \ad oìig}sd `j hc|d~cg|h`cgi oèetchse gcl |adc |ad _`zhd| Tch`c~dhcj ~odl gig~e |ag| n t~bd`hs }dgodjti dz it|h`c s|~g|dbx rgs |g~bd|dl g| tcld~ehchcbg cg|h`cs }sxoaì`bhogi ldjdcsd gcl dendllhcb h| hc g eti|hig|d~gi j~gedr`~f |ag|r`til swtdd{d t| h|s lhs|hco|hzdcdss#

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12/21

7 41 T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

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13/21


B`~ngoadz jhcgiix tchig|d~giix ~dltodl h|s }~dsdcod# \ahs lhl c | idgl | gcx gb~ddedc|s`c g cdr sxs|de dqod}| |ag| _hc`%^tsshgc o`cjhldcod%nthilhcb edgst~ds gclo``}d~g|h`c |a~`tba g~es sgids gcl _O@ ehih|g~x dqd~ohsds ndoged |ad oi`sds| |ahcb|ad~d rgs |` |ad T#_# giihgcod sxs|de odc|d~hcb c Kg}gc gcl _`t|a F`~dg# Hc Gtbts|>==2 ]t|hc }~dssdl |` egfd |ahs hc|` g e`~d jtii%jidlbdl giihgcod rh|a rahoa |ad`t|shld r`~il ets| ~dof`c#

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14/21

7 := T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

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15/21

\`rg~ls _ts|ghcgnid Do`cèho * _dot~h|x ^dig|h`cs hc Dgs| Gshg; T#_# * ^@F ]ìhox @}|h`cs 7:7

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16/21

7 :> T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

|ad idj| ags i`cb s|~dssdl |ad he}`~|gcod j ~dgoahcb ndx`cl |ad cd%shldl ld}dcldcox`j |ad giihgcod sxs|de) nt| gis` `rhcb |` |ad ldsh~d |` jhcl gc gooèe`lg|h`c nxGshgcs j`~ Gshgcs# Gj|d~ ~dkdo|hcb Egigxshgc }~hed ehchs|d~ Egag|ah~ Eàgegls}~`}`sgi g| |ad s|g~| j |ad 788=s j`~ gc Dgs| Gshgc do`cèho ogtots) |ad Kg}gcdsdrd~d ~do`cshld~hcb |adh~ s|gcod) gcl hc |ad Gshgc jhcgcohgi o~hshs e`zdl oi`sd~ |` |adhldgihs| }|h`c) nt| g| jh~s| `cix j`~ do`cèho nkdo|hzds rh|a G_DGC & ?# Gs Oahcgb~dr e`~d dc|atshgs|ho gj|d~ _`t|a F`~dg agl gi~dglx sa`rc h|s hc|d~ds| hc zhsh`cs j gc Dgs| Gshgc oèetch|x) Kg}gcdsd idgld~s ndbhcchcb hc >==< c`|hodgnix o`ìdl c|ad hldg# \adx i nnhdl j ~ g cg~~`r jtco|h`cgi g}}~`goa rahid stoodssjtiix ~oads|~g|hcbgc dq}gcsh`c |` hcoitld Gts|~gihg) Cdr [dgigcl) gcl Hclhg |ag| lhit|dl |ad cdr Dgs|Gshgc steeh|# @}d~g|hcb hc }g~giidi |` G_DGC & ? ehcts |adsd |a~dd edend~s) |adcdr dc|h|x adil h|s jh~s| |r` steeh|s rh|a`t| gcx shbc |ag| h| o`til |gfd |ad ~dhcs j oèetch|x nthilhcb ~ |ag| |ad il dc|h|x r`til l` h|# \ad hldgihs| zd~sh`c |ag| |t~cdl |G_DGC gs jgohih|g|`~ j`~ C`~|adgs| Gshg gcl do`cèho ~dbh`cgihse j`tcl h|s }igcs g|gc he}gssd#

Gc |ad~ zhsh`c j`~ ~dbh`cgihse g~`sd hc >==4=2 gs }g~| j |ad djj`~| | j`~bd g sdot~h|xoèetch|x |gfhcb |ad T#_# giihgcod sxs|de gs h|s o`~d# Hc |ad ig|d 788=s gs |ad Tch|dl_|g|ds gcl Kg}gc s|~dcb|adcdl |adh~ giihgcod g~`tcl cdr bthldihcds gcl }d~stgldl_`t|a F`~dg |` n~`gldc |a~dd%rgx o``}d~g|h`c gs sxenìh{dl nx |ad \O@B) |adjòts rgs c C`~|adgs| Gshg# Rh|a |ad g||gof c |ad Tch|dl _|g|ds hc >==7) grg~dcdss`j |d~~`~hs| go|hzh|hds gcl st}}`~| hc _`t|adgs| Gshg glldl g cdr jòts# Hco~dgshcbix)|ad T#_# }t~sth| `j Hclhg gs g s|~g|dbho }g~|cd~ gcl g o`tc|d~rdhba| |` Oahcg idl |`hc|d~ds| hc j`~egih{hcb ~dig|h`cs |a~`tba o``}d~g|h`c hc _`t|adgs| Gshg# Edgcrahid)Kg}gc agl ndoèd hczìzdl hc eg~h|hed st}}`~| j`~ |ad rg~ hc Gjbagchs|gc gcl sa`rdlfddc hc|d~ds| hc |ad _|~gh| `j Egigoog j`~ |ad sdot~h|x `j h|s `hi he}`~|s gcl `|ad~sah}}hcb#

\adsd ldzdi`}edc|s o`gidsodl hc|` Kg}gcdsd }~`}`sgis j`~ gc g~o j j~ddlè gcl}~`s}d~h|x dqoitshzd j Oahcg gcl b~`rhcb hc|d~ds| nx sèd hc |ad Ntsa glehchs|~g|h`c`~ kts| ld}g~|dl j~è h| hc g shehig~ c`|h`c ltnndl CG\@ j |ad Dgs|# Rh|a àE``%axtc ~djtshcb |` k`hc |ad }~ìhjd~g|h`c sdot~h|x hch|hg|hzdg o`~d hldg `j |ahs}igc`~ gcx cdr b~`t}hcb rh|a`t| Oahcg) sèd hc Rgsahcb| c }igodl |adh~ a`}ds cg o`csd~zg|hzd rhcchcb |ad jgii }~dshldc|hgi dido|h`c gcl ~d|ahcfhcb |ad }ìhox lh~do|h`clg|hcb ngof |` c`~l}ìh|hf# Hc jgo|) cix Gts|~gihg rgs c n`g~l) |ad T#_# c`|h`c rgsg||~hnt|dl |` g Kg}gc%idgchcb b~`t} |ag| rgs i`shcb b~`tcl hc >==:=2 rh|a }d~s`ccdioagcbds) gcl |ad Kg}gc c`|h`c rgs ~dbg~ldl gs gc djj`~| |` }t| |ad cts c Oahcg j`~igof j j~ddlè gcl |gfd |ad `cts jj j Kg}gc j`~ ahs|`~hogi ~dzhsh`chse# Gj|d~ Gndgcl ahs j`~dhbc ehchs|d~ Gs` \g~` idj| `jjhod) |ad g~o |aded sih}}dl j~è shba|#Bhzdc Hclhgs ~d|hodcod) |ahs c`|h`c j sdot~h|x ~dbh`cgihse ihcfdl |` tchzd~sgi zgitds

igofs heedlhg|d }~`s}do|s#


17/21

\`rg~ls _ts|ghcgnid Do`cèho * _dot~h|x ^dig|h`cs hc Dgs| Gshg; T#_# * ^@F ]ìhox @}|h`cs 7:?

G |ah~l }|h`c j`~ ~dbh`cgihse hs idss g zhsh`c |agc gc dq|dcsh`c j |ad shq%}g~|x |gifshc| rahoa |ad o`tc|~hds j C`~|adgs| Gshg ehba| s|tenid# Gj|d~ gii) |adx agl gb~ddl hcJdn~tg~x >==2 | j ~e g r`~fhcb b~ t} c ds|gnihsahcb g eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x j~gedr`~f#Rh|a C`~|a F`~dg fd}| g}g~| tc|hi h| oèeh||dl h|sdij |` ~dj`~e gs rdii gs ~dbh`cgis|gnhih|x) |ad ~deghchcb s|g|ds o`til ndbhc |ad g~lt`ts }~òdss `j ds|gnihsahcb goèetch|x rh|ahc C`~|adgs| Gshg# G~btgnix) tsshg) den ildcdl nx h|s dcd~bx ~dzdctd)r`til ~ds}`cl adsh|gc|ix# Xd|) hc oè}g~hs`c rh|a h|s rds|) rad~d |dcsh`cs rh|a CG\@g~d c`r hc|dcsd gs sag~}d~ lhzhlhcb ihcds g~d l~grc) gcl |` h|s s`t|a) rad~d |ad jèdc|`j |ad Ehllid Dgs| hs c`| l~grhcb tsshg oi`sd~ |` |ad Tch|dl _|g|ds gcl h|s o`gih|h`c`j |ad rhiihcb) tsshgs dgs| aìls sèd }~èhsd j o``}d~g|h`c# tsshgs }`sh|h`c hsrdgfds| ad~d) gcl |ad ngigcod j b~dg| }`rd~s stbbds|s |ag| h| ogc dq}do| |ad e`s|dwtgi |d~es j dc|~x#

Hj tsshg sa`til fdd} h|s lhs|gcod j`~ g |hed) |ad }t~sth| j g ~dbh`cgi oèetch|x o`tilòot~ rh|a`t| h|# \ad Tch|dl _|g|ds gis` egx nd ~dito|gc|) zhdrhcb g C`~|adgs| Gshgoèetch|x gs shehig~ |` gc Dgs| Gshgc oèetch|xdqoitshzd) stnkdo| |` Oahcgslèhcg|h`c) hldgihs| gn`t| g ~dbh`cgi hldc|h|x |ag| r`til o`cjiho| rh|a g bi`ngi hldc|h|x)gcl n`tcl |` tcld~ot| |ad giihgcod sxs|de ngsdl c |ad T#_# atn gcl zg~h`ts s}`fds#H| egx |gfd ~do`bch|h`c j |ad h~~dzd~shnid oagcbds tcld~ rgx hc |ad ~dbh`c gcl |ad} |dc|hgi j`~ hcoitshzd) oè}go| ~dbh`cgihse | g~`tsd T#_# hc|d~ds| gcl cix hj sdot~h|xhsstds g~d ~dsìzdl sheti|gcd`tsix#

\ad o`~d `j |ad Dgs| Gshgc ~dbh`c ~deghcs Oahcg) Kg}gc) gcl _`t|a F`~dg# Hj |adxgb~dd c |ad zgitd j ~dbh`cgihse jòtsdl c dgoa |ad~) |adx ogc egfd h| ag}}dc#\adx gii sag~d |ad O`cjtohgc |~glh|h`c dzdc hj zgitd lhjjd~dcods agzd ndoèddqgod~ng|dl gcl c`r s|gcl hc |ad rgx j ~dbh`cgihse !^`{egc >==:(# Hc |ad 718=s78


18/21

7 :< T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

ldohsh`c%egfhcb gt|a`~h|x hc sd}g~g|d g~dcgs o`til idgl |` g edgchcbjti }~òdss j gll~dsshcb t~bdc| }~`nides#

HQ# G Eti|hig|d~gi _dot~h|x J~gedr`~f j`~ C`~|adgs| Gshg

\ad shq%}g~|x |gifs egx stooddl hc ~dgoahcb g oè}~èhsd nd|rddc |ad Tch|dl _|g|dsgcl C`~|a F`~dg gs dgoa r`~fhcb b~`t} egfds h|s o`c|~hnt|h`c gcl) jhcgiix) |ad b~`t}idl nx tsshg gsshbcdl |` ldzdi`} g eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x j~gedr`~f ndbhcs |` l` h|s

k`n# \adx gis` egx ah| gc he}gssd hj C`~|a F`~dg hcshs|s c fdd}hcb h|s ctoidg~ rdg}`csgcl |ad Tch|dl _|g|ds gcl |ad~s rh|aaìl egcx j |ad ~drg~ls |ad C`~|a hs sddfhcb#Dzdc rh|a |ahs `t|oèd) rd ogc dq}do| o`c|hcthcb djj`~|s `c g eti|hig|d~gi ngshshcoitshzd j Oahcg gcl tsshg |` o`c|~ì |ad C`~|as ctoidg~ go|hzh|hds#

\ad }~òdss egx idgl |` ehqdl ~dsti|s) gs hc |ad ogsd `j |ad Gb~ddl J~gedr`~f)rad~dnx |ad |a~dg| }`|dc|hgi hs ~dltodl hc ~d|t~c j`~ sèd ~drg~ls gcl gc hc|d~heg~~gcbdedc| hs dq|dcldl rh|a`t| ~dsìzhcb |ad ngsho hsstd# Hc |ad jgod `j lhjjhoti|cdb`|hg|h`cs hc rahoa |ad C`~|a s|giis gcl t}s h|s ldegcls) |ad~d rhii nd jt~|ad~ cddlj`~ g edoagchse |ag| o``~lhcg|ds |ad ~ds}`csds j |ad |ad~ jhzd s|g|ds# \ad Tch|dl_|g|ds rhii nd dgbd~ |` fdd} Oahcg dcbgbdl hc |ahs dcldgz`~) rhii sdd Kg}gc gs |adhclhs}dcsgnid giix) gcl rhii c` l`tn| s|~hzd | ~ghsd |ad idzdi j o``~lhcg|h`c rh|a _`t|aF`~dg tcld~ h|s cdr }~dshldc|# Hj ^tsshg hs gedcgnid) h|s }~dsdcod r`til nd etoa

rdioèdl hc g o`~l`c j o`c|ghcedc| j |ad C`~|a ehqdl rh|a g lhs}igx j dc|hodedc|s#

\ad r`~fhcb b~`t} c eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x ~d}~dsdc|s gc }|hehs|ho edgcs j`~ nthilhcb`c |ad goahdzdedc|s j |ad shq%}g~|x |gifs# H| gis` ogc }d~g|d gs g jgiingof edoagchsej`~ }~dzdc|hcb g n~dgfl`rc |ag| r`til }t| gc dcl |` |ad |gifs# Etoa ld}dcls `crad|ad~ |ad tcld~s|gclhcb ~dgoadl nd|rddc Rgsahcb|`c gcl Ndhkhcb hc |ad jgii `j >==: |ag| idl |` |ad cdr zd~|t~ds |`rg~l ]x`cbxgcb og~~hds g ngoft} g}}~`goa hcogsd |ad |gifs ~dgoa gc he}gssd |ag| n`|a shlds niged c ]x`cbxgcbs ld|d~ehcg|h`c|` ~d|ghc g ctoidg~ |a~dg|# Hj s`) rhii nhig|d~gi |hds nd stjjhohdc|ix s`tcl |` egfd b``l c

|ahs tcld~s|gclhcb0 Gs gc giix j |ad Tch|dl _|g|ds gcl |ad o`tc|~x e`s| o`cod~cdlgn`t| |ad C`~|as ehih|g~x |a~dg|) r`til Kg}gc nd }~d}g~dl |` l` h|s }g~| c`| cix nxswtdd{hcb |ad C`~|a !rahoa h| gi~dglx hs l`hcb( nt| gis` nx gb~ddhcb |` |ad ehq `j og~~`|s gcl s|hofs0

]d~ag}s |ad nhbbds| wtds|h`c eg~f hs _`t|a F`~dg) rahoa shcod >==? ags hcshs|dl |ag|`cix og~~`|s ogc r`~f# R til h| k`hc hc eti|hig|d~gi }~dsst~d sa`til |ad C`~|a hcshs| cctoidg~ rdg}`cs0 G eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x b~`t} ags | nd gnid | l~gr ~dl ihcds gbghcs|go|h`cs |ag| |a~dg|dc |ad b~`t}s sdot~h|x# \ahs rhii nd |ad o~h|hogi |ds| j rad|ad~ stoa

g b~`t} ags g jt|t~d hc C`~|adgs| Gshg gs |ad ctoidg~ o~hshs dc|d~s h|s ldohshzd s|gbds#Hj |ad }dgod ~dbhed ji`tcld~s gcl ~dbh`cgihse hc C`~|adgs| Gshg ~deghcs gc hldgihs|ho


19/21

\`rg~ls _ts|ghcgnid Do`cèho * _dot~h|x ^dig|h`cs hc Dgs| Gshg; T#_# * ^@F ]ìhox @}|h`cs 7:4

eh~gbd) |adc rd ogc dq}do| |ag| ^tsshgs cdr gssd~|hzdcdss `c ndagij `j g fhcl `j o`c|hcdc|gi j~gedr`~f gcl Kg}gcs c ndagij j g cdr eg~h|hed j~gedr`~f rhii l`èstoa eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x# @cix rh|a g o`csdcsts `c a`r |` }~òddl rh|aldctoidg~h{g|h`c) |adc oi`sd o``~lhcg|h`c c g }dgod ~dbhed) gcl jhcgiix rh|a |ad s|g~|`j iheh|dl o``}d~g|h`c |`rg~l g C`~|adgs| Gshgc oèetch|x r`til rd agzd ~dgs`csj`~ o`cjhldcod |ag| g eti|hig|d~gi sdot~h|x j~gedr`~f rhii b` j`~rg~l#

DJD DCOD_

Jtcgngsah X`hoah# >==2# \ad ]dchcstig Wtds|h`c; G Oa~`choid `j |ad _do`cl F`~dgc Ctoidg~ O~hshs#Rgsahcb|`c) L#O#; N~``fhcbs Hcs|h|t|h`c ]~dss#

Bg~cd||) _ad~egc R#) dl# >===# ^g}}~òadedc| `~ ^hzgi~x0 ^tsshg%Oahcg ^dig|h`cs hc gOagcbhcb Gshg# Rgsahcb|`c) L#O#; Og~cdbhd Dcl`redc| j`~ Hc|d~cg|h`cgi ]dgod#

B~hds) ]d|d~ Agxs# >====2# Z s|òacghg }ìh|hfg Zigleh~hg ]t|hcg; Z {~gsaoadchd `sshh cg Nìsa`hZ`s|`f !>====1 bb#(# E`so`r; Z`s|`f%[g}gl#

^`{egc) Bhind~|# 788># Kg}gcs ds}`csd |` |ad B`~ngoadz D~g) 78147887; G hshcb _t}d~% }`rd~ Zhdrs g Ldoihchcb @cd# ]~hcod|`c; ]~hcod|`c Tchzd~sh|x ]~dss#

) dl# >===# Kg}gc gcl ^tsshg; \ad \`~|t`ts ]g|a |` C`~egih{g|h`c) 78====:# Oti|t~gi ]~d~dwthsh|ds j Dgs| Gshgc dbh`cgihse hc |ad Gbd j Bi`ngih{g|h`c#F`~dg @nsd~zd~ ?2) c`# 7 !_}~hcb(; 7==2g# dsatjjihcb ]~h`~h|hds j`~ C`~|adgs| Gshgc _dot~h|x; dzhsh`chse) dbh`cgihse)^dtchjhog|h`c) gcl dgihse# F`~dg @nsd~zd~ ?1) c`# > !_teed~(; >481?#

# >==2n# ^tsshg hc C`~|adgs| Gshg; Hc _dg~oa `j g _|~g|dbx# Hc ^tsshgc J`~dhbc ]ìhoxhc |ad \rdc|x%Jh~s| Odc|t~x gcl |ad _agl`r `j |ad ]gs|) dl# ^`nd~| Idbzìl) ?


20/21

7 :: T#_#F`~dg Gogldeho _xe}`shte

# >==2d# \ad C`~|a F`~dgc Ctoidg~ O~hshs gcl T#_# _|~g|dbx hc C`~|adgs| Gshg# Gshgc_t~zdx 7#

^`{egc) Bhind~|) Hc%\gdf Axtc) gcl _ahc%rag Idd) dls# >==1# _`t|a F`~dgc _|~g|dbho \ahcf%

hcb |`rg~l Gshg# Cdr X`~f; ]gib~gzd#

^`{egc) Bhind~|) \`b` Fg{tahf`) gcl K`sd}a ]# Jd~bts`c) dls# >==:# Kg}gcdsd _|~g|dbho\a`tba| |`rg~l Gshg# Cdr X ~f; ]gib~gzd#

_|~gh|s \heds# >==2# _hc`%^tsshgc J~ho|h`c ndahcl |ad _ehids# 71 Gtbts|#

_t||d~) `nd~| B# >==4# Oahcgs hsd hc Gshg; ]~`ehsds gcl ]d~his# Igcage) El#; `regc *Ih||idjhdil#

\d~gsaheg Kh|st~`# >==2# Gs` Lghsahc) Ndhoat sdffhc oa`ftsahsdx`) Ntcbdh satckt) Gtbts|#

\`b` Fg{tahf`# >==2# A`}}` ~x`l` f`sa` ah~`ft; tsahcgrg~d|g h|stl` c` fhfgh# \`fx`;_ahcoa`sag#


21/21

turning the six-party talks into a multilateral security framework for northeast asia by gilbert...

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