turning point - final pdf

8/3/2019 Turning Point - Final PDF

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TURNING POINTWt utur or ort popl nrour in t rging worl orr?

Rigt n Rour

20112012


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aT a GLaNce:

RIGhTs aNd ResOURces

2011-2012Wolwie, the se a maagemet o atal esoces a systems o tae a

goveace ave bee i x o yeas. Yet 2011 may well be emembee as te yea o

efitive tig oits: it was a yea we te sit i global olitical a ecoomic

owe to emegig ecoomies became clea; it was a yea whe the covetioal ecoomic

aaigm ecogize the iceasig scacity o atal esoces; a it was a yea whe

it became clea tat atioal a global evelomet eqies esect o local eolea tei esoces.

2011 was omiate by a eeeig ecoomic cisis. Ecoomists eict a log ecessio,

eve a lost ecae. Weste govemets a mltilateal istittios ae seeig thei imacy

ove eveythigom global tae to egotiatios o climate chagesliig away. I thei

laces ae ew layes om te eveloig wol, tei asceacy acceleate by te eclie

o te West. Altog te global olatio eace seve billio i 2011, te emogaic

otlook almost eveywee is o smalle amilies a a gaally stabilizig global olatio.

A mc geate log-tem teat to esoces ta olatio is isig cosmtio, ive byte emas o bgeoig ba mile classes acoss te eveloig wol.

Te emegece o a ew wol oe gives ise to ew teats to atal esoces,

oests, a thei taitioal cstoias. Soaig ivestmet i iastcte a miig

i Asia a Lati Ameica is seaig to Aica, otetially lockig i sstaiable

evelomet o ecaes. Te ew eveloes ote eel ee o te eviometal a

social coces tat ave lately costaie tei Weste coteats.

Bt tee is oeeive lagely om local commities a ogessive ivate

actos. Te local cstoias o te wols emaiig atal esoces ae becomigifclt to igoe. Te ecogitio i 2011 o te imotace o oest commities i

maitaiig vital oest cabo siks is oly oe examle. A ise o ola olitics assetig

moe cotol ove local esoces is challegig bsiess-as-sal a leaig to olitical

cages at te atioal level, wic, i t, is exetig a iece iteatioally.

The shback om local commities that we ote i 2010 le to otable victoies

i 2011. Will the emegig wol oe ecogize a esect commity ights a sot

te sstaiable se o tei esoces? At te global level, will tee be a t towas

moe iclsive goveace? O will we witess te same omiatio o local eole awastel se o atal esocesbt by ieet mastes? Mc iges o wete

the ights o al a oest-wellig eole i the eveloig wol will ow be esecte

a whethe they ae able to ogaize a maage the atal esoces that ae citical

o te svival a oseity o maity.


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ackNOWLedGemeNTs:

This report was prepared by Fred Pearce and sta o the Rights and ResourcesGroup with contributions rom RRI Partners and Fellows. The authors thank

Alastair Sarre or his invaluable editorial assistance.

Rights and Resources Initiative

Washington, D.C.

Copyright 2012 Rights and Resources Initiative

Reproduction permitted with attribution

ISBN 978-0-9833674-3-7

Design and layout by Lomangino Studio (www.lomangino.com).

prInTEd On FOrEST STEWArdShIp COunCIL CErTIFIEd pApEr.


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Tbl o contnt

aT a GLaNce: Rigt n Rour 2011-2012 1

PaRT ONe: Turning Point 5

peoles esoces at te cete o te emegig wol oe 5

Foest tee a te imlemetatio ga: Laws o te books bt ot o te go 7

PaRT TWO: T Yr in Fou 11

rEdd wobbles, tee gais tactio 11

Iastcte ivestmets boom, a so oes coict 16

La-gabbig gets gbbie 18

Seve billio a cotig: Cosmtio tms olatio as te key teat 21

Otage a occy: Fe wit ieqality 23

PaRT ThRee: Qution or 2012 27

Will 2012 see te e o eective global actio o climate cage? 27Will rEdd be eome o ovetake? 27

Wee will Ioesias tee eom oa take tem? 28

Will rio get eal? 28

Will esect o local igts be te allmak o 2012? 28

BOxesdbas lost ecae: Committig te oo to a climate o cetaity 12

Ca global oest cabo makets eve wok? 13

Ioesia: histoic commitmet to tee eom i a coicte coty 14

Cetal Aica reblic/nigeia: Commity tee maig gettig to scale 15

Sot Sa: raisig te ag i te wols ewest coty 17

Cia/Caaa: Te costs o isece tee mot as oesty fm loses uS$5 billio 20

FIGURes

1. Foest tee istibtio 8

2. regioal ocs o la acqisitios 18

3. Global mile class eictio o 2030 21

3


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acRONYms

acOFOP Asociaci e Comiaes Foestales e pet

BBc Bitis Boacastig Cooatio

BRIc Bazil, rssia, Iia a Cia

cIFOR Cete o Iteatioal Foesty reseac

cIveTs Colombia, Ioesia, Vietam, Egyt, Tkey, Sot Aica

cOGmeT reblic o Cogo, Gaa, Mozambiqe, Etioia a Tazaia

csO Civil-society ogaizatio

dRc democatic reblic o te Cogo

FPP Foest peoles pogamme

Iea Iteatioal Eegy Agecy

ImF Iteatioal Moetay F

Lo PdR Lao peoles democatic reblic

NGO no-govemetal ogaizatios

Redd recig Emissios om deoestatio a Foest degaatio

RRI rigts a resoces Iitiative

RsPO rotable o Sstaiable palm Oil

TIPNIs Teitoio Igea y paqe nacioal Isiboo Sce

UNeP uite natios Eviometal pogamme


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Popl rour t t ntr o t rging worl orr The world has changed. The past year was a turning point when the

West lost its political and economic dominance. The sovereign debt crisis,

centred in Europe, is dragging down Western economies, their markets and

political infuence. In January 2011, the International Monetary Fund

(IMF) orecast annual growth o up to 3%, but by years end there was

widespread expectation o a recession. In November, IMF chie Christine

Lagarde warned that a lost decade loomed in the West,1 as governmentsretrenched in the ace o debt.

Many developing countries, on the other

hand, barely missed a beat in 2011. China ended

the year as it began, with expectations o

continued economic growth above 9%. India also

powered ahead, with growth above 8%. Brazils

growth altered in 2011 but is predicted to

accelerate again in 2012. The IMF said it expectedeconomies in sub-Saharan Arica to expand by

almost 6% in 2012. The World Bank reported

that Arica could be on the brink o an

economic takeo.2

Nothing demonstrated the historic shit

in economic power in 2011 more than the European Union going to

China, hat in hand, asking or a bailout.

Political systems and governance shited signicantly as well,eroding old certainties and assumptions. The Arab Spring brought new

governments across North Arica and inspired protests around the world.

In sub-Saharan Arica, two out o three countries now hold regular

elections. In late 2011, previously war-plagued Liberia and Democratic

Republic o the Congo (DRC) both re-elected their leaders.3 Conversely,

PaRT ONe:

Turning Point

Nothing

demonstrated the

historic shift in

economic power in

2011 more than the

European Union

going to China, hat

in hand, asking for

a bailout.

1


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The Economists Democracy Index concluded that 2011 was a year o

democracy under stress, with leaders in Moscow, Kiev, and Budapest

usurping the powers o independent institutions such as courts, the media,

and the law. In crisis-ridden Greece and Italy, democratically elected

governments gave way to unelected cabinets o technocrats.

Developing economies have been growing aster than those in the

West or years. What was new in 2011 was that they continued to power

ahead while the West all but ground to a halt. They may suer in the uture

rom alling demand in developed nations, but a key emerging trend is that

industrializing countries such as China are switching rom supplying the

West to meeting the growing demands o their own middle classes. The

Arican Development Bank reported in 2011 that Aricas middle classes

expanded by 60% in the decade to 2010.4

On current trends, by the time the Wests lost decade is over, the

economies o much o the rest o the world will

have doubled in sizein the process doubling

both their use o the worlds resources and their

contributions to climate change and global

pollution. In 2011, or the rst time, consumers

in China were responsible, through their

purchases, or more carbon dioxide emissions

than were consumers in America.5 Their

per-capita emissions remain much lower, o

course, but this was a clear sign o changing

economic power.

In the emerging new world order, a critical question becomes whether

the new masters in Shanghai, Mumbai, So Paulo, and elsewhere will be

better than the old masters in New York, London, and Tokyo. Forest

communities and others are certainly closer to the planets new overlords.

Will that proximity have a positive eect on the orest tenure agenda

because the issues are closer to home? Will their governments demonstrate

any greater concern now that it is their own citizens lives and livelihoods

that will be aected? Or, i they do not, can the orest communities

themselves push or a new brand o economics that properly values natural

resources and the rights o those who sustain them?

Leading the way in the creation o the new world order are the BRIC

nationsBrazil, Russia, India, and China. China is already the workshop

o the world and the dominant superpower in East Asia. Indias ast-

growing economy is being driven by a vast, educated middle class. Brazil is

the worlds new agricultural colossus, dominating South America. Russia

controls vast mineral and petrochemical wealth.

Can the orest

communities

themselves push

or a new brand

o economics that

properly valuesnatural resources

and the rights

o those who

sustain them?


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Fort tnur n t iplnttion gp:Lw on t boo but not on t groun

Measig global ogess o tee eom is ifclt. Statistics o atioal oestowesi ae ate ieqetly a se om cagig efitios a cotesteiomatio. Last yea we eote tat te evoltio o oest tee igts to commitiesha stalle, while shot-tem la allocatios to ivestos wee sgig. desite mch closeattetio om te iteatioal commity i 2011, tis sitatio aeae to cotie.

desite the global slowow, thee wee some otable avaces. I Lao pdr, o examle,te govemet aoce a ogam to isse 1.5 millio title ees, iclig commalla titles, e a fve-yea la to 2015. recetly, the govemet isse its fst commal

la title i Sogthog istict i Vietiae eectecoveig o villages (Ba Xo, BaKoay, Ba Wag ma, a Ba na po)amotig to 24,889 ectaes o la.

I 2011, rrI aalyse te oest tee egimes i 30 o te wols most oestecoties (accotig o aoximately al o te wols oests).6 Te aalysis assesse61 stattoy commity tee egimes a the bles o ights available to commities.Tose igts icle avig access to oest esoces; makig ecisios o oestmaagemet; the ability to commecially havest timbe a othe oest octs; a beigable to excle otsies. rrI also ivestigate wete te tee egimes coe te igt

to lease, sell, o se oests as collateal; a wete tey gaatee commities eocess a ai comesatio i te state evokes tese igts. Eigty-fve ecet o teegimes aalyze wee establise ate 1992, te yea o te istoic rio smmit.

Tog tese egimes, govemets ave iceasigly establise o ecogizeIigeos peoles a commities igts to oest esoces i tei atioal legalamewoks. Bt the vast majoity o the egimes (58 ot o the 61) estict commity ightsby ot gatig oe o moe o te ble o igts o by lacig time limits o tose igts.Most eqetly abset wee the ights to excle otsies a to lease las. Lati Ameicaas te boaest a most comlex system o commity oest tee egime, wit 24

egimes ietife i eigt coties. I Aica, 35% o te egimes caot be t itoactice becase te imlemetig eglatios eqie by law ave ot bee asse.

data is available o te oest aeas allocate e eac egime o 42 o te 61egimes aalyze i te sty. Tis ata eects ofcial iomatio o te aeas allocatee eac egime as at o te cotys total oest aeas. It igligts te vaieimlemetatio o commity oest tee egimes acoss Asia, Lati Ameica, a Aica.I te eigt Asia coties o wic ata is available, 35% o te oests ae e somecommity tee egime (mostly e to Chia). I the six Lati Ameica coties o which

ata is available, 28% o te oests ae e some commity tee egime (mostly e

to Bazil). Wile i te eigt Aica coties o wic ata is available, oly 5% o oestsae e some commity tee egime.7

Seios eots mst be mae i 2012 both to imlemet the laws i avo o commity

tee a to ee existig igts. Goo laws o te books will o otigo eole o te goa o te est o te wol tat ees o tese esocesitey ae ot imlemete.


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Redd wobbl, tnur gin trtion The global institutional ramework or economic governance and

development is breaking down. The World Bank and Western ocial

development assistance agencies are becoming less infuential. The hopes

raised by the Rio 1992 Earth Summit, the anti-poverty objectives o

Johannesburgs 2002 World Summit, and the promises to prevent

dangerous climate change enshrined in the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change all now ring hollow.22

I there is good news on this ront, it is that nations, communities, and

the private sector are starting to act unilaterally. At the climate change

conerence in Durban in late 2011, or example, China, Brazil, Indonesia,

and 80 other countries conrmed voluntary carbon

emissions targets (see box on page 12).23 Such

targets may not be sucient, but they are being

acted upon. A 2011 RRI report24 showed that

several tropical countries that were once orestdestroyers have turned themselves into

reorestersBrazil, China (albeit partly by logging

other countries), Costa Rica, India, South Korea,

and Vietnam. In most cases, land tenure reorm to

benet poor orest-dwellers has been undamental

to this change.

Has the world reached a turning point in protecting rainorests?

A big question or the remainder o the decade is whether the proposedUnited Nations mechanism known as REDD (reduced emissions rom

deorestation and orest degradation) can build on these sporadic good-

news stories by putting a global price on the carbon content o orests.

I yes, national governments and, potentially, private corporations will be

able to oset large quantities o carbon emissions by investing in orest

PaRT TWO:

T Yr In Fou 2

Perhaps the most

telling developments

in 2011 on the

ate o REDD

was the growing

lack o confdence

in a global orest

carbon market.


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conservation. But perhaps the most telling developments in 2011 on theate o REDD was the growing lack o condence in a global orest carbon

market (see box on page 13), the recognition that REDD must deal with

the underlying policy drivers o deorestation, and the role that secure

tenure will play in reducing emissions and providing the basis or reorestation.

Given the slow progress that is being made on a uture global

climate change regime to replace the Kyoto Protocol, serious doubts about

the easibility o REDD persisted in 2011. Many infuential donors and

practitioners recognized the crucial importance o the recognition o thetenure and carbon rights o orest-dwellers.

Research published in 2011 underlined how community control is

the best long-term insurance or orests.29 But asserting it under an

international REDD regime designed to ensure carbon integrity could

prove dicult.30

dURBaNs LOsT decade: cOmmITTING The POORTO a cLImaTe OF UNceRTaINTY

I decembe 2011, the uite natios climate chage coeecei dba agee, o the fst time, that most eveloig atios sholbe bo by te same legal geeose gas emissios egime aseveloe atios. Excet o a hal o istialize atios still withi the Kyoto potocol,oweve, o atios will take o biig tagets til ao 2020. Wile a ilomaticbeaktog, te eal oee o osect tat te call by scietists tat global emissiossol eak beoe 2020 will be eee. Tee seems little cace, teeoe, o evetigglobal wamig o at least 2C.25 All tis esite 2011s eco level o atal isastes.26

Withot seios emissios tagets o o-Kyoto coties, eots to establish a lage

cabo maket also look oome. rEdd is likely to lay a sbstatial ole beoe 2020witot a majo ijectio o s, te osects o wic seem im. Wile te dbacoeece fally establise te Gee Climate F to el eveloig atios aatto climate cage a switc to low-cabo eegy,27 by late 2011 oly uS$5 billio abee committe to it by ic atios, well sot o te uS$100 billio a yea evisage.

Witot sece omises o s, eveloig coties wee elctat i dba tocee ovesigt o tei rEdd activities. As a eslt, talks o ceatig iteatioalsaegas to otect the iteests o oest commities mae little ogess. Govemetstat migt ost rEdd ojects agee to ovie smmay iomatio o saegas

bt ese to accet les o te collectio o ata o ote secifcs tat wol allowtem to be el to accot. Witot sc les, sai Lois Vecot, CIFOrs icialscietist at te talks, we caot talk abot sstaiability o rEdd.28

Give te weak commitmets, cetaity ove s, a te iceasig likeliooo a wame wol, wat ca we exect i te wols ooest coties? Wo will sete most? A wat will tis mea o atioal a egioal olitics?


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In 2011, some governments showed increased determination to help

communities benet rom REDD. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the

President o Indonesia, placed REDD and orest land tenure at the heart

o new policies to improve the sustainability o national economic

development, with the aim o simultaneously maintaining growth and

reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Finding the appropriate land tenure arrangement is a prerequisite or

sustainable development and livelihood, said Kuntoro Mangkusubroto,

chair o the Indonesian governments REDD task orce and head o the

Presidents Special Delivery Unit, in July.31 Some 33,000 villages are

located inside Indonesian state orests. Arguably, he said, that makes them

illegal, conficts happen as a result, and change is needed.

Kuntoro was speaking shortly ater President Yudhoyono announced a

two-year moratorium on the conversion o natural orests and peatlands.32

Even more dramatically, the government made an unprecedented

commitment to begin to recognize local land rights and to reorm orest

caN GLOBaL FOResTcaRBON maRkeTs eveR WORk?

The Eoea Emissios Taig Scheme,

at o te Eoea uios system ocomlyig wit Kyoto potocol tagets, wasclose to collase i late 2011. As ecessio

case te sly o cabo ceits to otsti ema, ices lmmete to 7 e

metic to, less tha oe-thi thei ome level. The scheme also has iteal oblems,bt it aises qestios abot wete cabo makets ca elive wat tei sotes

hoe o: sece ig o cabo-emissios abatemet ojects that also ovie wie

social a eviometal beefts.

Leaig commoity maket secialist, Te Me poject, says tee is a mismatc

betwee rEdd as a maket mechaism a rEdd as a evelomet vehicle a cosevatio

tool.33 Tee ae cosieable tecical oblems o te sly sie, sc as toseassociate wit measig a accotig o cabo i oests a estimatig wat

emissios thee might have bee withot a rEdd itevetio. Oe isk is that most o the

moey will be soake by measemet, accotig, a eotig; aothe is that theewill be too may selles a ot eog byes, casig ices to collase.

The Me poject ages that rEdd shol chael moey iectly to commities,

who wol the ojects accoig to thei ow ioities. The Me poject a othes

ae lookig o alteatives tat ca ece oest emissios a ovie te ecessay

evelomet beefts to local commities.


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Barker, the UK governments climate change minister, said: Securing air

land tenure must be the oundation o REDD. Not just or ethical reasons,

but because it is crucial in attracting private-sector investment. No matter

how much nance we raise and deliver, it will be ineective unless it

addresses the underlying drivers o deorestation.39 The UK government is

a leading under o pilot REDD projects.

Can such aspirations turn to reality? The omens are mixed, and even

reorms that initially look good on paper may ail to deliver long-term

benets. There are also serious risks o perverse outcomes rom REDD

policies. A cost-benet analysis on REDD by McKinsey & Company has

been especially criticized.40 That analysis ound that the opportunity costs

o developing REDD projects would be greatest or industrial logging and

oil-palm development and least or subsistence arming; subsistence

arming, thereore, should be the rst activity to make way or REDD

programs because the oregone revenues would be lowest. Countries such as

Guyana and DRC adopted this advice in ormulating their REDD policies.

Critics said this was alse accounting, however, since little o the

production o subsistence armers enters the cash economy and so was not

counted in the analysis. Also, the costs o relocating displaced armers were

ignored. McKinsey & Company admitted that its ndings would create

distortions, but stood by its analysis.41

In most countries, the biggest driver o deorestation is pressure to

convert to agriculturewhether or oil palm in Southeast Asia, cattle

pastures in Latin America, or biouels in Arica. To succeed, REDD must

ceNTRaL aFRIcaN RePUBLIc/NIGeRIa:cOmmUNITY TeNURe maPPING GeTTING TO scaLe

Oe way o elig oest commities to omote tei tee

a cabo igts is tog commity maig. Fo examle, a

commity maig oject ogaize by te raioest Foatio

uK i te Cetal Aica reblic,42 comlete i 2011, mae200,000 hectaes o oest a taie commities to se thei mas

to el sece tee e te cotys ew oest law.

Commity maig ca ave lastig eects. I te 1990s, te uK govemete te maig o commity oests i Coss rive state i nigeia, ome to al

the cotys oests.43 Eve thogh the s wee soo withaw, some 30 commity

oest committees cotie. Fitee yeas late, ame with thei mas, these committees

lobbie te state govemet to t rEdd o te atioal agea a emae tat

evees go to te commities.


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sOUTh sUdaN: RaIsING The FLaGIN The WORLds NeWesT cOUNTRY

Sot Sa gaie its ieeece i Jly 2011. Ca itise above te tavails o its eigbos? Te ealy sigs ae oo.

resoce-gabbig was at te eat o te iteim govemets

e-ieeece activities a as emaie so sice.

At ieeece, Sot Sa acelle ot almost 9% o its

teitoy to ivestos, iclig oe-qate o te cotys etile

gee belt ao te caital Jba.47 Bt may o te eals ae little moe ta ieces o

ae a tee ae ew sigs o ecoomic activity o te go.

new Yok-base Jac Caital claims 400,000 ectaes i Sot Sas oil-ic

uity state, thaks to a coteste eal with a local walo. The comay omises it willam theeoe ay. Texas-base nile Taig claims 600,000 hectaes i the gee belt

to cltivate oil alm, awoo tees, a te bioel jatoa. 48 Te lease was sige

with a local chie, who tol the BBC he ha bee eceive. Moeove, the cotact states

tat all 600,000 ectaes ae i Laiya coty, weeas te coty coves oly 340,000

ectaes. pat o Laiya coty is also claime by Cetal Eqatoial Teak, a oesty

comay set by te Bitis a Fiis govemets.Few o tese eals ae likely to come to mc, bt te sam aly els ecoomic

evelomet a tee is a isk tat te ew state will be a kletocacy om bit.

road rom passing through the indigenous territory.46 The decision was a

major victory or local activists and has inspired others around the world.

Highway projects hit the headlines in several other countries during

2011. Especially contentious were those involving construction by

oreigners or their own needs. One fashpoint was a project in northern

Pakistan to pave and rebuild part o the Karakoram Highway, which

connects interior China to the Indian Ocean and the Middle East. This

project, which employs thousands o Chinese labourers, is controversial

geopolitically because it passes through Gilgit Baltistan, a disputed territory

in Pakistans northernmost region. India claims the territory and sees the

project as a harbinger o growing Chinese infuence.49 The project has also

attracted the anger o local Shia- and Su-dominated communities

demanding autonomy rom Islamabad. Roads typically bring other

inrastructure: close to the Karakoram Highway, Chinese engineers have

begun construction o a hydroelectric dam on the Indus River that will

food 100 square kilometres o Gilgit Baltistan and displace 35,000 people.

The Karakoram Highway is part o a road network being masterminded

across Asia by the Association o South East Asian Nations Inrastructure


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Fund and the Asian Development Bank. Another contentious project is

building a 1500-kilometre highway through Southeast Asias East-West

Economic Corridor to link Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam to the Burmese

port o Mawlamyine.50 A key stretch o the roadthrough Burmas orested

Dawna Mountainswas opposed by both environmentalists and local

Karen residents, who eared it would be used by the Burmese military to

ght the separatist orces o the Karen National Union.

Ln-grbbing gt grubbirWhile inrastructure investment is a potent catalyst o change in

remote regions, its land-take has been eclipsed in recent years by land-

grabbing by agri-businesses, oten unded and organized rom abroad.

Land-grabbing has become recognized as a global phenomenon.

In 2011, both Oxam and the International Land Coalition estimated

that more than 200 million hectares had been bought or leased by

agri-businesses since 2001more than our times a previous estimate by

the World Bank.51 Responding to growing alarm, in October the United

Nations Committee on World Food Security discussed voluntary guidelines

to protect communities. To the anger o human rights campaigners,

however, it postponed a decision until 2012.

Land-grabbing has been triggered by concerns about ood security,

coupled with the lure o rising world ood prices. Most o the grabs have been

Figur 2: Rgionl ou o ln quiition

Africa Asia Latin America Oceania WorldEurope

34.

3

134.

5

203.

4

43.

4

1

8.

9

4.

7

0.7

28.

6

6.

3

1.5

0.1

70.

9

nmbe o ectaes (millios) coss-eeece

nmbe o ectaes (millios) eote

SourceS: La Matix, i te Iteatioal La Coalitios 2012 eot La rigts a

te rs o La: Fiigs o te Global Commecial pesses o La reseac poject


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or state lands, including pastures, orests, and

wetlands, most o which are the customary property

o communities.52 Two-thirds o the reported land

grabs have been in Arica, where nearly 700 million

people live on land that is customarily owned but

has insecure tenure under statutory law. Most o this

land is deemedalselyby governments to be

empty or underused.

By 2011, six years ater the end o a long civil war, most o the land in

Liberia was once again under some orm o concession to oreign armers,

miners, or oresters. In Mozambique, six million hectares o empty land

has been declared open to oreign investors. The new state o South Sudan

was handing out land even beore it raised its national fag or the rst time

(see box on page 17).53

Across Arica, less than 2% o orests are ormally owned or administered

by communities, leaving states ree to hand out the remaining 98% in the

name o economic development. A 2011 study ound that 33.5 million

hectares o orest in DRC are under concessions or timber, diamonds, or

mining, but none is owned by orest communities.54 Similarly, Gabon and

the Central Arican Republic have 18.9 million and 5.4 million hectares,

respectively, under concession, and none controlled by communities.

In East Arica, pastoralist communities have traditionally had access to

large areas. But in recent decades their reedom to move with their cattle

has increasingly been constrained, even within areas designated as their

village lands. In theory, Tanzania has some o the continents best laws

recognizing customary rights; in practice, land alienation to meet the

demands o tourism, biouels, and mining is a growing issue. In 2011, Maasai

pastoralists reported systematic land alienation, evictions, intimidations,

marginalization and lack o legal recognition to the United Nations

Human Rights Council.55 The Tanzanian government has granted hunting

rights to a consortium rom the United Arab Emirates over 400,000 hectares

o traditional Maasai land, including several registered Maasai villages, in

the Loliondo area adjacent to the Serengeti National Park.

The Maasai are now required to keep out o the way o the hunters as

the government deploys its elite paramilitary Field Force Unit to ensure

they do so. In July 2009, the Field Force Unit entered villages and,

according to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Humans Rights and

Indigenous Peoples, burned down more than 200 homesteads and destroyed

maize elds and ood stores. Some 3,000 people were let without shelter,

ood, or water, and their 50,000 cattle lost their grazing lands.56 The Special

Rapporteur said the evictions ormed part o a larger government policy

While the global

population bomb

may be in the

process o beingdeused, the global

consumption bomb

is ready to go o.


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24/36

22

growth will certainly slow and many believe that the number will peak at

between 9 and 10 billion by the end o the century.

But while the global population bomb may be in the process o being

deused, the global consumption bomb is ready to go o. Consumption

drives resource demand and use, and the number o people living

consumerist liestyles in the worlds burgeoning urban areas is rising ast.

The planet might not ace a Malthusian doomsday, but it does conront

proound challenges in supplying the resources needed to maintain those

liestyles and in maintaining the orests needed to avert climate disaster.

Businesses and economists have oten treated natural resources such as

sh, soils, orests, and clean air as ree goods that are always available. This

has been encouraged by the supply o cheap energy, historically alling

resource prices, and globalizationi a resource runs out in one area, you

simply move on to another. But global resource scarcity is causing this

paradigm to break down. Ater a century in which most resources have

tended to become cheaper, the prices o commodities have risen over the last

decade by an average o 70%. In 2011, Jeremy Grantham called this perhaps

the most important economic event since the

Industrial Revolution.64

To cope with it, users o nite resources such

as metals and hydrocarbons will have to close

the loop through systematic recycling, or nd

more readily available substitutes.

There are more options or biological

resources such as timber and sh. One is to

arm: timber can be produced in tree

plantations, or example, and aquaculture can

boost the supply o sh. Another is to conserve

the remaining natural resources and harvest

them sustainably. The social and political

consequences o the two approaches will be

very dierent. The arming approach is

driving the land grab and the privatization and commodication o

traditionally and commonly owned resources such as orests, pastures, and

sheries. The management approach will require a shit to sustainable

systems that will be more diverse and resilient. It will also require the

nurturing o the commons rather than their curtailment, and the

promotion o the rights o traditional owners and users o those resources.

Increasingly, research and experience are conrming that traditional

owners are both the best custodians o natural biological resources and the

people best able to achieve the required transormation to sustainability,

provided they retain their tenure and ownership.

Research and

experience are

confrming thattraditional owners

are both the best

custodians o

natural biological

resources and the

people best able to

achieve the required

transormation

to sustainability,provided they

retain their tenure

and ownership.


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23

In Guatemala, or example, the state granted 12 community orest

concessions covering 400,000 hectares in the Maya Biosphere Reserve.

The reserve is the largest protected area in Central America and was

previously run by government agencies. Much o the drive to create the

community concessions came rom theAsociacin de comunidades forestalesde Petn (ACOFOP).

In 2011, an ACOFOP aliate shared the UNEP Sasakawa prize or its

work on sustainable orest management in the Maya Biosphere Reserve.65

Until now the Maya project has been seen as a one-o. But its success

against many competing demands or the land suggests that it could oer a

useul wider model or both REDD and the sustainable production o

timber and other orest products.

Outrg n oupy: F up wit inqulityActivism against land-grabbing, the lack o

consultation over new inrastructure projects,

heavy-handed REDD projects, and the spread o

agri-business has been on the rise across the

developing world or several years.66 The voices o

those activists ound an echo in the urban West in2011. Outrage over the stratospheric salaries o

bankers and others gave rise to the Occupy movement, which established a

presence in many major capitals.

There is now a global movement involving activists in both developed

and developing countries. They share a sense that inequality has reached a

disgraceul level and that the nancial system has become too powerul or

governments to control. This global movement seems to be gaining

momentum, with recent successes in deending collectively owned naturalresources against powerul corporations, including what until recently was

Canadas largest publicly traded timber company (see box on page 20).

In Liberia, a surge o oreign takeovers o land to grow oil palm has

been halted by grassroots opposition to a 63-year lease on 220,000 hectares,

awarded by the government to Malaysian plantation giant Sime Darby.67

Villagers complained that the company had thrown people o their land,

illegally cleared orest and lled in wetlands, and ailed to announce and

consult about its plans or to provide promised jobs. Public meetingsattended by legislators triggered an environmental investigation that

resulted in nes or the company. Civil-society groups appealed to the

Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an international trade body

aimed at raising social and environmental standards in the industry.

Just as the biggestinrastructure

projects are no

longer immune to

protest, previously

impervious

governments are

also becoming

more vulnerable

to their citizens.


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25

Nubian lands. Nubian opponents said in a letter to SinoHydro in January

2011 that the dams were part o a strategy or the Arabization o the

Nubians by resettling them ar rom their homeland.72 True or not, new

dam conficts seem certain in Sudan.

In October 2011, a Brazilian judge ordered a halt to construction o

the worlds third-largest hydroelectric dam at Belo Monte in Para state

because, he said, it would food the homes o thousands o indigenous

people and damage their shing on the Xingu River.73 This was despite the

long-mooted US$7 billion project getting the go-ahead rom the ederal

environment agency, IBAMA, earlier in the year and the support o local

political leaders, who believe that the project will bring development.

Despite protest, the judge revoked his opinion ollowing an appeal in

December.74 This battle is likely to continue in 2012.

Just as the biggest inrastructure projects are no longer immune to

protest, previously impervious governments are also becoming more

vulnerable to their citizens. The year ended with the Chinese government

on the back oot ater protests against land grabs and industrial pollution in

Guangdong province, the manuacturing heartland o southern China. The

protests began in Wukan, a small shing village.75 Village residents said

party ocials had done corrupt deals with businessmen to grab their land

or development. Demonstrations against the land seizures escalated; ater a

protester died in police custody, the villagers expelled the orces o the

state, including party ocials. For a week, Wukan was autonomous; then a

truce was struck and the government agreed to investigate the land grabs.

Will the unrest spread? It could. In December, protesters in the nearby

town o Haimen, emboldened by events in Wukan, went on strike,

demanding the cancellation o a planned coal-red power station in the

town that, they said, would damage their health.76 Two people died when

townspeople stormed council oces.

Something is aoot. Frustrated by global nancial orces and the abuse

o their local rights and resources, the most unlikely people are rising up

against authorities once seen to be too powerul to challenge. There need

not be conrontation: many communities want investments in

inrastructure and other development, but top-down approaches will no

longer be tolerated. Excellent examples o processes to obtain the ree,

prior, and inormed consent o Indigenous Peoples and communities now

abound; in the long run, the widespread adoption o such processes would

be good or all parties.


28/36


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27

Will 2012 t n o ti globl tionon lit ng?

The agreement reached at the Durban climate-change conerence

that most nations should accept binding targets on greenhouse gas

emissions was an overdue acceptance that developing nations now

dominate global emissions and must be active partners in ghting climate

change. But by postponing a deal on what those targets should be until2015and their implementation until 2020 or laterthe agreement

leaves the world a long way rom any prospect o preventing a 2C rise

in temperature.

Is there a way back? The Durban conerence agreed to discuss in

Qatar at the end o 2012 how best to address the yawning ambition gap.

That could be the last hope o preventing dangerous climate change.

Will scientic imperatives trump diplomatic convenience?

Will Redd b ror or ortn?

In the absence o a unctioning global climate deal, and with

continued uncertainty about its unding, the uture o REDD is unclear.

Much good work has been done to help it embrace tenure rights and orest

governance, but the impetus created by its unveiling in Bali our years ago

is dissipating. REDD could limp on with unding rom ocial development

assistance agencies and voluntary carbon markets, but without greaterpolitical will it could suer the same ate as the Kyoto Protocols moribund

Clean Development Mechanism.

PaRT ThRee:

Qution or 2012 3


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28

Wr will Inoni tnur ror ro t t?

Indonesias commitment to orest tenure reorm was one o the major

successes o 2011 and a potential beacon or the transormation o orest

governance elsewhere. But how will it play out, given the powerul orces inthe country that still want to pursue exploitative economic development?

Will the government uphold its commitment, and will civil society

maintain its constructive approach? By the end o 2012, the two-year

moratorium on orest licences will almost be over. The die will then be cast.

Will Rio gt rl?

The original Rio Earth Summit spanned 12 days; Rio+20 will last justthree. The original version produced the climate-change and biodiversity

conventions, but nothing comparable is set to be signed this time.

Nevertheless, Rio+20 oers a great opportunity. Rights and governance

were missed last time, and there was an over-reliance on old-world

institutions. Development was still seen as a universal good rather than

as a process with winners and losers. So can Rio+20 push orward an

agenda or green growth based on equitable rights to resources?

It is unclear i Western economic turmoil and the rise to prominence

o developing nations will help or hinder such an agenda. Will Rio+20

prompt a new architecture or global governance? Will local voices be

heard? Will summit leaders recognize that the contributions o orest

communities to local green economies could be the blueprint or global

custodianship o natures resources?

Will rpt or lol rigt b t llr o 2012?

The world reached a turning point in 2011; the power o the BRICsand the ascendancy o other developing countries, and the power o local

people, is less in dispute. The immense pressure being exerted on natural

resources and local people is now ully recognized. But does this herald an

increase in respect or local resource rights and governance? It is a question

o undamental importance: globally equitable natural resource protection

and production will only be achieved in coming decades i the rights o

rural and orest-dwelling people are respected.

The agenda or social and environmental sustainability is hardly new,and it would be oolish to predict that its rise is now imminent. This is a

time o huge geopolitical, economic, and social fuxit brings risk, but also

opportunity. A new, progressive politics that respects local rights could

solve pressing global issues, rom climate change to ood security. I it is not

sought now, then when?


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29

eNdNOTes

1 BBC. 2011. IMF cie was o a lost ecae o global ecoomy. BBC (olie) 9 novembe

2011. tt://www.bbc.co.k/ews/bsiess-156499852 njiaii, Jo. 2011. Is Aica o te way to ecoomic takeo? Te Staa (olie) 7Mac 2011. tt://www.staameia.co.ke/acives/mag/Isiepage.?i=2000030685&ci=457&

3 Te Ecoomist. 2011. Te s sies bigt: Te cotiets imessive gowt looks likelyto cotie. Te Ecoomist (olie) 3 decembe 2011. tt://www.ecoomist.com/oe/21541008.

4 Jma, Calestos. 2011. Aicas ew egie. Fiace & develomet decembe 2011:611. tt://www.im.og/exteal/bs/t/a/2011/12//jma.

5 Masall, Micael. 2011. Cias cosmes emit moe ta uS o te fst time. newScietist (olie) 4 decembe 2011. tt://www.ewscietist.com/aticle/21239-cias-

cosmes-emit-moe-ta-s-o-te-fst-time.tml6 Te sty icles te ollowig coties, wic accot o abot al o te wolsoest cove: Astalia, Bazil, Bolivia, Camboia, Cameoo, Cia, Colombia, Cogo, drC,Fila, Gabo, Gatemala, Gyaa, Iia, Ioesia, Keya, Libeia, Malaysia, Mexico,Mozambiqe, neal, nigeia, pnG, pe, Swee, Tazaia, Taila, Veezela, Vietam,a Zambia. See www.igtsaesoces.og/teeata

7 O te coties examie i Lati Ameica, 205.4mha all i some commity teeegime ot o te same coties total oest aea o 724mha; i Asia, 155.7mha ot o444.9mha; a i Aica, 15.9mha ot o 298.7mha.

8 Seli et al. 2008; rigts a resoces Iitiative & Iteatioal Toical TimbeOgaizatio. 2009. Toical Foest Tee Assessmet: Tes, Calleges a

Ootities. Yokoama, Jaa a Wasigto, d.C.: ITTO/rrI. Figes 1 a 2 cotaiata om te ollowig coties: Aica-drC, Sa, Agola, Zambia, Tazaia, CAr,Cogo, Gabo, Cameoo, Ca, nigeia, Cote Ivoie, nige a Togo (73% o Aicaoests). Asia-Astalia, Ioesia, Iia, Myama, paa new Giea, Jaa, Tailaa Camboia (80% o Asia oests). Lati Ameica -Bolivia, Bazil, Colombia, Veezela,Gyaa, Siame, Ecao a hoas (74% o Lati Ameica oests). rest o tewol-rssia, Caaa, u.S., Swee, Jaa, Fila. State Foesty Amiistatio. 2007.Cia Foesty Yeabook. Beijig: Cia Foesty pblisig hose.

9 Te Ecoomist (2011). As cite i eote 3.10 retes Aica. 2011. Malaysia eyes Aica o alm oil makets gowt. retes Aica

(olie) 7 decembe 2011. tt://a.etes.com/aticle/moocconews/

iAFL5E7n63Z22011120711 Agitae, 2011. Malaysia go Sime daby ivests i alm oil i Libeia. Agitae

(olie) 9 Agst 2011. tt://agitae.cta.it/Agiclte/Commoities/Oil-cos/Malaysia-go-Sime-daby-ivests-i-alm-oil-i-Libeia

12 Te Oakla Istitte. 2011. uestaig La Ivestmet deals i Aica. Cotyeot: Mozambiqe. Oakla: Te Oakla Istitte. tt://www.oaklaistitte.og/sites/oaklaistitte.og/fles/OI_coty_eot_mozambiqe_0.

13 Aiqe Avei. 2011. Exasio o sga octio i Aica. Aiqe Avei (olie) 15Mac 2011. tt://www.aiqeavei.og/e/2011/03/15/exasio-o-sga-octio-i-aica/

14 Gatam, Jeemy. Time to wake : ays o abat esoces a allig ices ae oveoeve. Te Oil dm (olie) 29 Ail 2011. tt://www.teoilm.com/oe/7853

15 Eegy Blleti. 2011. IEA wol eegy otlook 2011. Eegy Blleti (olie) 9 novembe2011. tt://www.eegyblleti.et/stoies/2011-11-09/iea-wol-eegy-otlook-2011-ov-9

16 OECd. 2011. A Oveview o Gowig Icome Ieqalities i OECd Coties: Mai Fiigs.pais: Ogaisatio o Ecoomic Co-oeatio a develomet. tt://www.oec.og/ataoec/40/12/49170449.


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17 BBC. 2011. Wage ieqality gettig wose i leaig ecoomies. BBC (olie) 5 decembe

2011. tt://www.bbc.co.k/ews/k-olitics-1601229318 BBC. 2011. Iia icome ieqality obles i 20 yeas, says OECd. BBC (olie) 7decembe 2011. tt://www.bbc.co.k/ews/wol-asia-iia-16064321

19 Te new Yok Times. 2011. A migty ew a Iias icest ic. Te new Yok Times(olie) 26 Jly 2011. tt://www.ytimes.com/iteactive/2011/07/27/wol/asia/20110727-te-icest-ic-i-iia.tml

20 Te new Yok Times. 2011. Bazil ties agmatism, ot olitics. Te new Yok Times(olie) 18 novembe 2011. tt://www.ytimes.com/2011/11/19/wol/ameicas/19it-cets19.tml

21 roy, Aati. 2011. Tis Stggle has re-awakee O Imagiatio. Seec give atte peoles uivesity, Wasigto Sqae, new Yok City, 20 novembe 2011. tt://

gos.yaoo.com/go/SotAsiaCotact/message/15085.22 Evas, Alex. 2011. Foo Secity: Ae We nealy Tee Yet? Seec give by ig TetrrI dialoge at Te hage, te netelas, 7 Setembe 2011. tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/fles/oc_2659.

23 peace, Fe. 2010. Cac aalysis: daw beaks o low-cabo wol. new Scietist(olie) 13 decembe 2010. tt://www.ewscietist.com/aticle/19861-cac-aalysis-aw-beaks-o-lowcabo-wol.tml?ll=te

24 Gegeso, has, hosy El Lakay, Lke Bailey, a Ay Wite. 2011. Geee Sie orEdd+: Lessos o rEdd+ om Coties wee Foest Aea is Iceasig. Wasigto,d.C.: rigts a resoces Iitiative.

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tt://www.ewscietist.com/aticle/mg21228434.700-o-climates-ageos-ecae.tml.26 tt://www.mice.com/a_ages/www/@es//meia_elatios/ess_ossies/

icae/2011-al-yea-atal-catastoe-eview-sa_e.27 Koss, Geo. 2011. Gee s witeig i cet climate. CQ Weekly (olie) 10

decembe 2011. tt://blic.cq.com/ocs/weeklyeot/weeklyeot-000003997655.tml28 Kovacevic, Micelle. 2011. dba talks bot goo a ba o rEdd+, says exet. Cete

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29 See, o examle:CIFOr. 2011. new global sty sows ig eliace o oests amog al oo. pess

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Ewas, davi p., Lase, To h., docety, Teega d. S., Asell, Felicity A., hs,Waye W., de, Mia A., hame, Keit C. a Wilcove, davi S. 2010. degae las wototectig: te biological imotace o Soteast Asias eeately logge oests.poceeigs o te royal Society B 278: 8290 (oi:10.1098/sb.2010.1062). tt://sb.oyalsocietyblisig.og/cotet/ealy/2010/08/03/sb.2010.1062.abstact

30 IIEd. 2011. Cabo rigteosess: how to Leve po-oo Beefts om rEdd+. IIEdBiefg Jly 2011. Loo: Iteatioal Istitte o Eviomet a develomet.tt://bs.iie.og/s/17097IIEd.

31 Magksboto, Ktoo. 2011. Seec give at te Iteatioal Coeece o FoestTee, Goveace a Eteise i Lombok, Ioesia, 12 Jly 2011. tt://k.go.i/iato/35-imotace-o-la-a-oest-tee-eoms-i-imlemetig-a-climate-cage-sesitive-evelomet-agea

30


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32 retes. 2011. Q+A-palm oil, gowt a Ioesias oest cleaig ba. retes (olie)

25 May 2011. tt://www.etes.com/aticle/2011/05/25/s-ioesia-almoil-iuSTrE74O2LG2011052533 Te Me poject. 2011. rEdd a Foest Cabo: Maket-Base Citiqe a

recommeatios. Te Me poject. tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/fles/oc_2215.. rigts a resoces Iitiative. 2011. Tee Tes: does rEdd neea Global Cabo Maket to Wok? rigts a resoces Iitiative. tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/fles/oc_2216.

34 tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/fles/oc_2503.35 ulockig te potetial o Foests tog Tee reom: Key messages a

ecommeatios om te Iteatioal Coeece o Foest Tee, Goveace aEteise: Exeieces a Ootities o Asia i a Cagig Cotext. Joit

eclaatio om te Iteatioal Coeece o Foest Tee, Goveace a Eteise:Exeieces a Ootities o Asia i a Cagig Cotext. Jly 2011. tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/blicatio_etails.?blicatioId=2517

36 Te Jakata post. 2012. La otests jam Jakata. Te Jakata post 13 Jaay 2012.37 tt://www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/fles/oc_2519.38 Foest peoles pogamme. 2011. natioal uate o rEdd+ i Ioesia. rigts, Foests

a Climate Biefg Seies Octobe 2011. Moeto-i-Mas: Foest peoles pogamme.tt://www.oesteoles.og/sites//fles/blicatio/2011/10/atioal-ate-biefg-1.

39 Bake, Geg. 2011. Seec give ig te Elevet rrI dialoge i Loo, uK, 12Octobe 2011. www.igtsaesoces.og/ocmets/iex.?bId=2693

40 Gegese, has, El Lakay, hosy, Kasety, Alai, a Wite, Ay. 2010. does teOotity Cost Aoac Iicate te real Cost o rEdd+? rigts a realities opayig o rEdd+. Wasigto, d.C.: rigts a resoces Iitiative.

dye, nataiel a Cosell, Simo. 2010. McrEdd: how McKisey Cost-cves aedistotig rEdd. Climate a Foests policy Bie novembe 2010. Te raioestFoatio. tt://www.aioestoatiok.og/fles/Mcre%20Eglis.

dley, Calotte. 2011. rEdd eot eews McKisey cost cve citicism. EviometalFiace (olie) 14 Ail 2011. tt://www.eviometal-face.com/ews/view/1662

Moales, Alex. 2011. McKisey wok lets Cogo, Gyaa get ai, ct tees, Geeeacesays. Bloombeg (olie) 7 Ail 2011. tt://www.bloombeg.com/ews/2011-04-06/mckisey-wok-lets-cogo-gyaa-get-ai-ct-tees-geeeace-says.tml

41 raioest Foatio uK. 2011. McKiseys Geeose Gas Abatemet Cost CveSettig te reco Staigt. 9 Mac 2011. tt://www.aioestoatiok.og/fles/McKisey_Abatemet_Cost_Cve_settig_te_eco_staigt.

42 Te raioest Foatio uK. 2011. Cetal Aica reblic: Likig rigts, CaacityStegteig, rEdd a FLEGT. Biefg, novembe 2011. tt://www.aioestoatiok.og/fles/rFuK%20CAr%20biefg%20rEdd%20FLEGT.

43 Osaogiagbo, rita. 2012. A stakeoles om o climate cage, rEdd & oesteeet commity igts. Eviomet rigts Actio (olie) 9 Jaay 2012. tt://www.eactio.og/comoet/cotet/aticle/282

44 Kissige, Gabielle. 2011. Likig Foests a Foo poctio i te rEdd+ Cotext.CCAFS Wokig pae no. 1. Coeage: CGIAr reseac pogam o Climate Cage,Agiclte a Foo Secity. tt://ccas.cgia.og/sites/ealt/fles/assets/ocs/gkissige_likig_oests_oo_e_fal-web.

45 Tcomba, Belmo. 2011. democatic reblic o Cogo Cosevatio Iteatioal rEddilot oject: a dieet Ki o disey poctio. ugay: Wol raioest Movemeta Cecle e exio et actio o la oesteie commataie et la jsticeevioemetale. tt://www.wm.og.y/sbjects/rEdd/drC_rEdd_e.


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33

eNdNOTes

62 un news Cete. 2011. As wol asses 7 billio milestoe, un ges actio to meet key

calleges. un news Cete (olie) 31 Octobe 2011. tt://www..og/as/ews/stoy.as?newsId=4025763 Zlotik, haia, nai, Caa a peace, Fe. 2011. Cowe ot. Iteatioal heal

Tibe Magazie (olie) 2 decembe 2011. tt://www.ytimes.com/2011/12/02/oiio/magazie-global-agea-cowe-ot.tml?emc=tt&ttemail1=y

64 Gatam (2011). As cite i eote 14.65 uite natios Eviomet pogamme. 2012. 201011 unEp Sasakawa ize wies

big oest maagemet a sstaiable evelomet to al commities i LatiAmeica a Asia. uite natios Eviomet pogamme (olie) 9 Jaay 2012. tt://www.e.og/sasakawa/

66 rigts a resoces Iitiative. 2011. psback. Wasigto, d.C.: rigts a resoces

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