Turkish EU Accession.Turkish EU Accession.Short-term Threats vs. Long-term Short-term Threats vs. Long-term

OpportunitiesOpportunities

Presented by:Presented by:Emil IlievEmil Iliev

Kiril Kostov Kiril Kostov Lyubomir VankovLyubomir Vankov

BackgroundBackground

1987 – Turkey applied for accession 1987 – Turkey applied for accession to the EUto the EU

1999 – Turkey became a candidate 1999 – Turkey became a candidate countrycountry

2005 – Start of official negotiations 2005 – Start of official negotiations for Turkish entryfor Turkish entry

Negotiations expected to take 10-15 Negotiations expected to take 10-15 yearsyears

Europe is far too short-Europe is far too short-sightedsighted

GDP Per CapitaGDP Per Capita

Lowest Lowest GDP Per GDP Per CapitaCapita

Mass Mass immigratiimmigration into on into EuropeEurope

Flood of Flood of labor labor marketsmarkets

Lower real Lower real wages in wages in EuropeEurope

DemographicsDemographics

72.6 Million72.6 Million Almost Almost

equal to equal to 2004 2004 EnlargemenEnlargementt

99% Muslim 99% Muslim – will – will change change religious religious balance balance within the within the EU from 3% EU from 3% to 20% to 20% MuslimMuslim

UnemploymentUnemployment

10.2% 10.2% UnemployUnemploymentment

Highest Highest after after Poland and Poland and SlovakiaSlovakia

Coupled Coupled with large with large population population – will flood – will flood EU with EU with poor laborpoor labor

GeopoliticsGeopolitics

Only 3% of Only 3% of Turkey is Turkey is geographicgeographically in ally in EuropeEurope

Does not Does not include include AnkaraAnkara

Will extend Will extend EU border EU border to Syria, to Syria, Iraq, Iran, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Armenia, GeorgiaGeorgia

YES to Turkish AccessionYES to Turkish Accession

Turkey ReformsTurkey Reforms

1999 – National Programme for the Adoption 1999 – National Programme for the Adoption of the EU Acquisof the EU Acquis

Abolition of death penaltyAbolition of death penalty Expanded freedom of expressionExpanded freedom of expression Curtailment of power of militaryCurtailment of power of military Release of political prisonersRelease of political prisoners More freedom for the use and study of More freedom for the use and study of

KurdishKurdish Looking for solution to CyprusLooking for solution to Cyprus

Turkey is an important allyTurkey is an important ally

NATO member since 1952NATO member since 1952 Pro-Western and increasingly Pro-Western and increasingly

democraticdemocratic Full support for the “war on terror”Full support for the “war on terror” Contributed to military and Contributed to military and

peacekeeping actions on the Balkans peacekeeping actions on the Balkans and Afghanistanand Afghanistan

EU should use its leverage to export its EU should use its leverage to export its values to Turkey values to Turkey

The EU Needs TurkeyThe EU Needs Turkey

To increase its leverage as a To increase its leverage as a normative powernormative power

To further its value-driven policiesTo further its value-driven policies To obtain a critical strategic partnerTo obtain a critical strategic partner

Joschka FischerJoschka Fischer – German Foreign Minister until 2005 – German Foreign Minister until 2005

“ “ to modernize an Islamic country based on theto modernize an Islamic country based on the

shared values of Europe would almost be a DDayshared values of Europe would almost be a DDay

for Europe in the war against terror,for Europe in the war against terror,

[because it] would provide real proof that Islam[because it] would provide real proof that Islam

and modernity, Islam and the rule of law . . .and modernity, Islam and the rule of law . . .

[and] this great cultural tradition and human[and] this great cultural tradition and human

rights are after all compatiblerights are after all compatible””

Tony Blair – UK Prime MinisterTony Blair – UK Prime Minister

“ “the accession of Turkeythe accession of Turkey would be proof would be proof that Europe isthat Europe is committed notcommitted not just in word just in word but in deed to a Europe of diversebut in deed to a Europe of diverse races, races, cultures, and religions all bound togethercultures, and religions all bound together by by common rules and a sense of human common rules and a sense of human solidaritysolidarity and mutual respect.”and mutual respect.”

Turkey as a Strategic Turkey as a Strategic PartnerPartner

Large Army – 400000 standing troopsLarge Army – 400000 standing troops Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and Physical Presence in Middle-Eastern and

Caucasus-Caspian RegionCaucasus-Caspian Region Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans, Geopolitical Significance to the Balkans,

eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Russian RegionRussian Region

Turkey Membership – more confident and Turkey Membership – more confident and expansive EU policy in the regionexpansive EU policy in the region

Turkey will provide capacity, local Turkey will provide capacity, local knowledge and foreign policy experience knowledge and foreign policy experience in dealing with the Middle Eastin dealing with the Middle East

Major Growth MarketMajor Growth Market

Rapidly Rapidly modernizing modernizing economyeconomy

7 % growth > 7 % growth > average EU growthaverage EU growth

$17.1 billion FDI in $17.1 billion FDI in 20062006

$86 billion exports$86 billion exports Less textile, more Less textile, more

electronic exportselectronic exports

Turkish Foreign TradeTurkish Foreign Trade

EU

Countries

Other

Countries

$87.1 BILLION

$101.3 BILLION

53,753,7%%

46,3%46,3%

Total $188.4 BILLION

Energy CrossroadEnergy Crossroad

CCrucial for rucial for EU future EU future energy energy securitysecurity

Positioned Positioned near all near all majormajor

oil & gas oil & gas areasareas

Solution toSolution toEU demographic CrisisEU demographic Crisis

Young, educated Turkish Young, educated Turkish labor forcelabor force

EU showing future deficit EU showing future deficit parallel to aging parallel to aging populationpopulation

High future EU demand High future EU demand for Turkish workersfor Turkish workers

Other Economic Other Economic BenefitsBenefits

Already highly integrated economy Already highly integrated economy shared Customs Union with EUshared Customs Union with EU

Potential logistics centre in trade Potential logistics centre in trade between EU and between EU and the Caucasus,the Caucasus, MiddleMiddle Asia and the Middle EastAsia and the Middle East

High consumption behaviorHigh consumption behavior

“ “Absorption Capacity”Absorption Capacity”

If EU could take 10 new states at If EU could take 10 new states at a single time, with overall a single time, with overall population of 110 million, than population of 110 million, than Turkey with its 75 million should Turkey with its 75 million should NOT be a problem as continuously NOT be a problem as continuously stated.stated.

NNothing aboutothing about S Size orize or

RRelativeelative W Wealth ealth inin

the Copenhagen Criteriathe Copenhagen Criteria

Thank YouThank Youfor thefor the

AttentionAttention