Turkey’s Neighbourhood Policy: Developing a World Complex Interdependence?

K. Kaan Renda Phd Candidate

European Studies King’s College London kadri.renda@kcl.ac.uk

www.cesran.org

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Introduction

Realism in IR Complex interdependence General characteristics of Turkish Foreign policy Recent developments and activism Concluding remarks Q&A

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Realist theory

States as unitary and dominant actors Survival and security are the main objectives Hierarchy of issues: High politics v. Low politics Power = Material capabilities = Military force National interests are pre-given Conflict and competition persistent

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Complex Interdependence

Basic Features: Multiple ChannelsAbsence of hierarchy among issuesSecondary role of military force

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Complex Interdependence (continued): Multiple Channels:

Transgovernmental relationsTransnational relationsSupport for Multilateralism

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Complex Interdependence (continued): Absence of Hierarchy among Issues

Extensive foreign agendasSecurity issue is relegatedRise of different domestic groups National interests less clearly defined Cooperation possible and becomes a norm

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Complex Interdependence (continued): Secondary role of Military Force:

Change in threat perceptionsDiplomacy and other civilian instruments

praised Military power is the last resort

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Complex Interdependence (continued): Types of Leadership and Role:

Hegemonic leadership: Dominant roleUnilateral leadership: unilateral policies and

bilateral relationsMultiple leadership: multilateral policies,

mediator and facilitator role, displaying a good example

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Complex Interdependence (continued): Sensitivity: the speed and magnitude with

which a change in one country is felt in another country.

Vulnerability: the relative availability and costliness of alternative policy frameworks, when it becomes necessary to adapt to external changes.

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Turkish Foreign Policy

General characteristics of TFP in 1990s: Geostrategic concerns Threat perceptions Military strategy Domestic politics

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Geostrategic concerns:

Dominated by realpolitik and geopolitical concerns: Cold war mentality

Power politics: strong army and readiness to use of force

Searching for a new role

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Threat perceptions:

Threats are everywhere: Domestic and international threats

National unity and integrity (milli birlik ve beraberlik) Terrorism Hostile neighbours

Surrounded by threats Suspicion and mistrust Security was the main concern Security-consumer

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Military strategy:

Military strategy focused on: Containment of hostile neighbours through

alliances and threat of use of force Fighting against terrorism

Strong army and strong state was vital for survival Highly cautious

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Domestic politics:

State-centric National Unity and integrity (milli birlik ve

beraberlik) Coalition governments Military’s role in foreign policymaking

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Recent Developments

Foreign Policymaking Economic activism Diplomatic activism

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Foreign policymaking

Civilianization: Democratization: Desecuritization:

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Economic activism

Creating a circle of business partners Web of bilateral agreements More pragmatic and economy oriented Rise of trading state after the twin economic

crisis in 2000 and 2001: need for new markets Role of stable and consolidated economy Energy hub Possibility of economic regime and economic

integration

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Trade statistics (1) Source: IMF

Year   1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Partner country

Flow                    

Armenia Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

  Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 391k 40k 56k 1.489

Azerbaijan Exports 248k 230k 225k 231k 315k 403k 528k 695k 1.046 1.667

  Imports 440k 956k 780k 646k 122k 135k 272k 340k 329k 928k

Bulgaria Exports 233k 252k 299k 380k 621k 892k 1.179 1.567 2.060 2.151

  Imports 295k 465k 393k 508k 689k 955k 1.190 1.661 1.949 1.840

Georgia Exports 114k 131k 144k 103k 155k 199k 271k 407k 645k 997k

  Imports 932k 155k 127k 137k 273k 302k 302k 344k 289k 525k

Greece Exports 406k 437k 476k 590k 920k 1.166 1.126 1.602 2.262 2.429

  Imports 287k 430k 266k 312k 427k 592k 726k 1.044 950k 1.150

Iran Exports 157k 235k 360k 333k 533k 810k 912k 1.066 1.386 2.029

  Imports 635k 815k 839k 920k 1.860 1.961 3.469 5.626 6.613 8.199

Iraq Exports 0 0 0 0 829k 1.815 2.748 2.589 2.811 3.916

  Imports 0 0 0 0 112k 467k 458k 375k 644k 1.320

Syria Exports 232k 184k 281k 266k 410k 393k 551k 609k 797k 1.115

  Imports 307k 545k 463k 506k 413k 357k 272k 187k 376k 639k

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Trade statistics (2)Source: IMF

Partner count

ry

Flow 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Russian Exports 588k 643k 924k 1.172 1.367 1.858 2.377 3.237 4.727 6.483

  Imports 2.374 3.886 3.435 3.891 5.451 9.027 12.869 17.806 23.506 31.364

Israel Exports 585k 650k 805k 861k 1.083 1.309 1.466 1.529 1.658 1.935

  Imports 298k 505k 529k 544k 459k 714k 803k 782k 1.081 1.447

EU Exports 15.420 15.664 17.545 20.416 27.397 36.524 41.365 47.930 60.406 63.394

  Imports 22.529 28.526 19.823 25.688 35.140 48.077 52.629 59.338 68.589 74.803

AFRICA Exports 1.049 901k 1.031 1.203 1.527 2.150 2.558 3.365 4.429 6.558

  Imports 1.075 1.787 1.879 1.823 2.075 3.012 3.786 4.714 5.702 6.490

Middle East Exports 2.225 2.031 2.575 2.735 4.511 6.797 8.986 9.881 13.186 23.330

  Imports 2.299 3.543 3.221 3.310 4.861 6.194 8.836 11.790 12.017 16.003

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Diplomatic activism

Dynamic and assertive diplomacy Soft power From staunch alliances to flexible alliances Mediator role, problem-solver, pivotal role

in regional politics More cooperative and constructive Normalisation of relations with neighbours

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Concluding remarks

Expanding the Turkish sphere of influence From “tolerating and deterring neighbours” to “good neighbourly

relations” Analytical problems of complex interdependence model

Lack of emphasis on the effects of identity and culture Too much economy-oriented

Practical problems of new activism in Turkish foreign policy Problems of zero problem with neighbours policy Economical and institutional capacity Over-stretching: Breaking the bow Over-confidence and declining tolerance to opposition Seen rhetorical and opportunitist: Lack of concrete results Domestic problems constrain Turkish role in the region

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During the Cold War", Middle Eastern Studies 36(1): 103-139. Aydin, M. (2003b). "Securitization of History and Geography: Understanding of Security in

Turkey", Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 3(2): 163-184. Bilgin, P. (2005). "Turkey's Changing Security Discourses: The Challenge of Globalisation",

European Journal of Political Research 44(1): 175-201. Karaosmanoglu, A. L. (2000). "The Evolution of the National Security Culture and the Military in

Turkey", Journal of International Affairs 54(1): 199-216. Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S.(1989). Power and Interdependence, USA: Harper

Collins Publishers, 2. Edition. Kirisci, K. (2006). Turkey's Foreign Policy in Turbulent Times. Chaillot Paper. Paris: Institute for

Security Studies. Oguzlu, H. T. (2004a). "The Impact of 'Democratization in the Context of the EU Accession

Process' on Turkish Foreign Policy ", Mediterranean Politics 9(1): 94-113. Oguzlu, H. T. (2007). "Soft Power in Turkish Foreign Policy", Australian Journal of International

Affairs 61(1): 81-97. Robins, P. (2007). "Turkish Foreign Policy since 2002: Between a 'Post-Islamist' Government and

a Kemalist State", International Affairs 83(2): 289-304.

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Thank you very much!

kadri.renda@kcl.ac.uk

www.cesran.org