Turkey’s EU bid: the journey or the destination?24.09.2009 | Anna Patton

Looking back recently on a long history of EU-Turkey relations, Turkey’s EU minister described it as a “relay race” towards modernization. The baton has been passed down through successive governments for fifty years – Turkey first applied to join the EU in 1959 – and the finish line is not yet in sight.

Though accession talks were opened in 2005, only one of 35 “chapters”, or areas of reforms, has been completed. This is partly due to the attitudes of EU leaders, notably in France and Germany, condemned in September by the Independent Commission on Turkey as triggering off a “vicious circle”. By proposing a “privileged partnership”, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are offering nothing new to Turkey, already the EU’s closest partner. Backtracking on the promise of full membership damages EU credibility: polls show that those Turks considering EU membership “a good thing” had dropped from over 70% in 2004 to 42% in 2008. This means less public support for the ruling AKP government in implementing difficult reforms. Consequently, Brussels judges Ankara to be “dragging its heels” and concludes that it is not ready for membership.

Yet the tide may be turning. “There are definite signs that Turkey has restarted the reform process”, argues Amanda Akçakoca from the European Policy Centre, pointing to the appointment this year of a chief negotiator to the EU, initiatives to improve relations with the minority Kurdish population, and judicial reforms. Long-time enemies Turkey and Armenia announced plans in August to establish diplomatic relations. If successful, says Hugh Pope of the Crisis Group in Turkey, this would do a great deal for Turkey’s “PR” abroad.

EU communication programme © EC

Istanbul © EC

Nazlan Ertan, Hürriyet Daily News columnist, remains cautious: the Armenia and Kurdish initiatives have opened important debates, “but they put more on the AKP plate, domestically and internationally.” Meanwhile, Turkey’s promised constitutional reform still hasn’t materialised. Nor do AKP actions help its image: anti-alcohol measures confirm suspicions that it is pursuing a “hidden agenda” of Islamization, and in the latest incident, a hefty tax fine slapped on the often AKP-critical media group Doğan Yayin raised concerns about press freedom.

But “the great blockage” in EU-Turkey relations, as Liberal Democrat MEP Andrew Duff calls it, is Cyprus. The conflict became a thorn in the EU’s side when Cyprus was admitted to the club before any agreement between its divided Turkish and Greek communities was reached. Eight negotiation chapters remain blocked as a result of the dispute. Time is running out in peace talks between the two Cypriot leaders: elections in Turkish Cyprus early next year could see the pro-active Mehmet Ali Talat replaced by a president less favourable to reconciliation. Talat has appealed to the EU for help. But the EU “is completely distracted”, says Pope, who fears a breakthrough will be elusive. Failure to solve Cyprus will create “a hostile partition

and a new faultline in Europe”, he warns. “The EU will be powerless.”

Ultimately, the sheer lengthiness of the accession process may favour Turkey. Current circumstances are decidedly unfavourable, with both Brussels and Ankara otherwise preoccupied. Eventually, Turkey hopefuls argue, circumstances will change. Pro-Turkey leaders will take office in key member states; Europe’s energy and population needs will only increase.

The EU needs Turkey: economically, geostrategically and, some argue, culturally. “If we fail to build bridges with Turkey, the impact on the Arab world, and on Iran, is not to be underestimated”, warns Duff. Turkey, the only secular democracy in the Muslim world, can be a key mediator and modernizing force in the Middle East.

But does Turkey need the EU? Suggestions that the West is losing Turkey are “greatly exaggerated”, says Akçakoca, “Turkey has always been a westward-looking country.” Yet as long as Brussels keeps shifting the goalposts, the greater the chances Turkey will look elsewhere. This has always been a danger, admits Mr Duff. Thanks to customs union, Turkish businesses “have already got what they want” from the EU, says Mark Almond, professor at Bilkent University. 2009 has seen Turkey on route to becoming a global energy hub, in July signing the €8bn EU-backed Nabucco gas pipeline deal and, weeks later, a separate agreement with Russia for its South Stream pipeline. While Turkey may simply be keeping its options open, Brussels is only just realising that Turkey actually has other options. Russia is now its second biggest trading partner, after Germany.

Much of Turkey’s economic growth in past years, though achieved without membership, was greatly helped by working towards EU requirements. If Turkey is already achieving the modernization it seeks, simply by staying in the race, will it really care if it never crosses the finish line?

Anna Patton is a writer based in Brussels (www.annapatton.eu)