turkey and the arab spring: implications for turkish foreign policy from a transatlantic perspective

832019 Turkey and the Arab Spring Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy from a Transatlantic Perspective

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullturkey-and-the-arab-spring-implications-for-turkish-foreign-policy-from-a 148

MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2011

TURKEY AND THE ARAB SPRING

IMPLICATIONS FOR TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY

FROM A TRANSATLANTIC PERSPECTIVE

Nathalie Tocci

Oumlmer Taşpınar

Henri J Barkey

Eduard Soler i Lecha

Hassan Nafaa



copy 2011 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States All rights reserved

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) Please direct inquiries to

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

1744 R Street NW

Washington DC 20009

1 202 683 2650

F 1 202 265 1662

E inogmusorg

Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at wwwgmusorgpublications Limited print

copies are also available o request a copy send an e-mail to inogmusorg

GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta ellows and partners o the German

Marshall Fund o the United States Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

views o GMF Comments rom readers are welcome reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to inogmusorg

About GMF

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmaking institu-

tion dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe on transatlantic

and global issues GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere by conven-

ing leaders and members o the policy and business communities by contributing research and analysis on transatlan-

tic topics and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship In

addition GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany

as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic In

addition to its headquarters in Washington DC GMF has seven oces in Europe Berlin Paris Brussels Belgrade Ankara

Bucharest and Warsaw GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava urin and Stockholm

About the Mediterranean Policy ProgramTe Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe North

Arica the Levant and the Mediterranean basin Priority areas include understanding trends in Mediterranean societies

exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-ranean security and development and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic

cooperation on Mediterranean strategy

About Istituto Affari InternazionaliTe Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI) ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965 does research in the elds o oreign policy

political economics and international security A non-prot organization the IAI aims to disseminate knowledge through

research studies conerences and publications o that end it cooperates with other research institutes universities and

oundations in Italy and abroad and is a member o various international networks More specically the main research

sectors are European institutions and policies Italian oreign policy trends in the global economy and internationalization

processes in Italy the Mediterranean and the Middle East deense economy and policy and transatlantic relations Te IAI

puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator ) an online webzine ( AfarInternazionali) a series o

research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellrsquoItalia)

Cover photo Palestinian students hold the pictures o urkish Prime Minister Recep ayyip Erdogan and the urkish andPalestinian fags during rally beckoning him to visit the Gaza Strip at the port in Gaza City on Sep 13 2011

copy Ashra AmraZUMA PressCorbis



Turkey and the Arab SpringImplications for Turkish Foreign Policy From a

Transatlantic Perspective

Mediterranean Paper Series

october 2011

N T Ouml Tşı H J B3 E S L4 H N5

D I A I (IAI) R

S F T B I W DC

3 B B C P I R L U

4 R F CIDOB (B C I A)

5 P P S C U

F

N T 3

T T M A

Oumlmr Tşpınr 7

C R A R T T A

Hnr J Brky 15

T EU T A S F P A J S

Edurd Sr L 25

T T M M A S

Hssn Nf 35





Turkey and the Arab Spring

Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy From a Transatlantic Perspective

3

ForewordNathalie Tocci

I NA M E B - A

q ( ) T ( ) - T P ZE A B A E P HM A M A B Y

j

T A S T T

I - A S T E U

(EU) U S T - T O T I S Iq I ( R A G) B T T A S rpk T W T PM T Eğ W H Mrsquo

-J F P A Guuml E S C E I E T T A A S rpk I L T NATOrsquo - x M G

O M 3 T Grsquo L S T P B -A T

W x I E T E T T T B L $5 T 5

T Trsquo I S 877 T-S S ( K q) T - q --

T A S Trsquoldquo rdquo T x S mdash S I L mdash T P M Eğ P A Y ( )



The German Marshall Fund of the United States4

M I P M S BEğ G ( ) G

F A S Trsquo M E x Trsquo F M ADğrsquo W U S A Iq E x -US T I I S 8 I H 6 8 I M C H F A W A-I

T Trsquo (E S A) (U S) T T - M E ( Iq S W I) x I-A q

I - A S T I - M E T A C W T W M I 99

T S I B ( O) T x M M ET T U S I E U T M E

T A S ( ) S (T) ( E) ( M) ( L S Y B) W M E q T A A T

q US- TE- A I x A x ( x) I q

I T q R -- -W M T S W T





5

D ( ) T H N I Ouml Tşı T M T I T O M j T I J D P O

T - T Y B Tşı N T - Eq H B T Trsquo

T A S

T I x T EU U S x T EU U S T EU EU T E S L I EU T

U L T T EU T ( CF S P H R ) WTrsquo () T 7

F EU-T T C F S P (CFSP) T EU T T EU CFSP T T

T ldquo rdquo EU

T T EU U S A S A EU ExA S (EAS) T S L W

EU-T - EU-T-US -





The Turkish Model and its Applicability

Ouml Tşı

T F P L A S 9

T T M A S







9

Turkish Foreign Policy in Lightof the Arab Spring1

T A S Trsquo U S I E U

Trsquo T G J mdash I T ( T-A) mdash Trsquo ldquordquo I U N(UN) S C A

T F A j ldquoH-H-I Irdquo

T A S A T E L W T I ldquo Trdquo I T A ldquoT rdquo A

M T E mdash mdash NATO L E S T A A W

Trsquo ME T Arsquo I Y W A q I ET Y L S A

T F ldquoL Irdquo Nw Yrk Tms J5

Trsquo I J D P (AKP)

I Trsquo A W j I-O K S AKP T A TOuml 98 T M I T AKPrsquo P M Eğrsquo A Dğ ldquo rdquo ldquo-rdquo Dğrsquo T M E N A

B E O S Trsquo - - O AKPrsquo ldquo-Ordquo

T -O T O T A T -O AKP

T Trsquo O M N-O T S I I




N-O Trsquo Kq S T -O A K T R K x K R T q

T -O grndur - Trsquo T I -O A x ldquo rdquomdash mdash O T N-O T I

O B E A -O T ldquordquo S q - M

T -O W M L I E A -O J- B Ouml AGuuml Eğ Trsquo I W E I E U

-O

S AKP -O ME B E U T IndashP NATO A UN L O I C AL I Iq S A M E U NATOrsquo I AKPrsquo-O





11

The Turkish Model and the Arab Spring

2

T A S x -O T T

T A Y M E FM A Dğrsquo ldquordquo S T - E

T M E A

U AKPrsquo -O A I E A Trsquo W AS Ersquo C

- A G T Trsquo A q

H T A T q T T T A US- I q M B E A Trsquo AKP I T ldquordquo ldquordquo I Y T

q T

I E T - I T A T R - K T 93 T x T H T I T q q T T D x E U U S A

L

T T T I O I O IA ldquordquo S I j T T W ldquorsn drsquoeacute rdquo I I

A TR Auuml




I P I T T q I T I T AKP I T I CC I I O

T AKP I S W P 99 NS P 98 C A C S TI

Y T I A I A T T I q Trsquo - 95 S

A 6 T

D I I x q

I I x T I x UldquoI rdquo MB I A T - 95 M A

I

A T x- T

E A I T

- ldquoA rdquo T A A Trsquo M x I S

T x T I

A TI S T TI x T Trsquo





13

FGuuml A x EU T F - K q j EU T T

T x T

A T ldquordquo A T A A G su gnrs T A x

I T A q Y T A W A S T EU U S ET M J Y

U Trsquo EU Y EU U S W T O (WTO) NATOrsquoP P U M (UM)

A - T M G8 $ A S j T S - C EU T EU-T

T A S





Coordinating Responses to the 2011 Arab RevoltTurkey and the Transatlantic Alliance

H J B

I 7

T M 8

T P M

3 T L

4 W C D C R D B 3







17

T A rsquo T

I A T M E J D Prsquo (AKP) P M R T Eğ A Dğ

A

I T x x q x T T Eğ x ldquo

rdquo Trsquo F S j I x ()

T T - ldquordquo T L S q ldquo rdquo x A L S

N T M EC M E q A mdash mdash I q W H Trsquo

I

T x Trsquo T ME A

Introduction




Turkey as a Model

1

O A T - x T AKP T x T

Trsquo M E x T - S A I Iq AKP - K R G(KRG) K Iq

T

AKPrsquo - rsquo T T T T

I Trsquo

M E - T T I AKP T rsquo

F J D P (AKP)

W rsquo I I EU- 4 I UN S C 3 US

Iq - T AKP K T 93

B 7 AKP T q TAKP Trsquo I-

S L H R I-H I AKPrsquo I T Eğ M E

A - T H - x- 98 T Ouml T T rsquo 6 G A x I I T





19

NATO EU I




K T E M K Auuml 938 K I F N W W II S U T -

T j W M R mdash 946 95 mdash NATO

T T 96 x

ldquordquo T 96 Prsquo x I I F ( ) T 96

T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T

I ME x AKP I T mdash mdash E-W C T A

T q T C T T su gnrs Trsquo - - q x x A M

T 98 N T

W Trsquo I T W W II CW S T 979 q 98- rsquoeacute T Oumlrsquo T 997 ldquo-rdquo E K -

The Path and the Model

2





21

rsquo A 7 - FM A Guumlrsquo j AKP Eğ T A A

O T T 98 j T T j

T E j EU I T E T I K ME

T - 979 T T 98 Ouml T T Ouml T 98 99 Y T Ouml T T T

I A- - T AKPrsquo T Oumlrsquo AKP

Oumlrsquo rsquo T I AKP T 997 IW P- - T P P j I Eğ T AKP Trsquo




B x T 98 x $ x I -x

T T x 8 A

T T T E x U S NATO EU E x T Ersquo T T U S

T T A

T T j x

H T x T T M ldquordquo T -AKP T

E T E 95

x

I E q G A Nrsquo

q W E J E T A S K x G S Trsquo x x

x x

I T E

The Lessons

3





23

Trsquo

T EU I Ersquo I

N - - x - x

M T T R D B A E U S E T - T eacutemgreacute

I T I x - -A

T T j T T () x T

What Can be Done Contemplatinga Regional Development Bank4





The EU Turkey and the Arab SpringFrom Parallel Approaches to a Joint Strategy

E S L

I 7

A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27

A q ldquoASrdquo N A M E T

E U (EU) T A susqu n A Cq E T q x

W T EU j - - I A B E x

H T EU A

I EU-T A x

S D N Gouml ldquoErsquo N- C T Irdquo On Turky srs GMFUS M 8 C G ldquoA EUrdquoCnr fr Eurpn Rfrm Py Brf M KB ldquoW EU T N C TF Prdquo Crng Endwmn fr Inrnn PC A 3 H G SUuml ldquoT rdquo Eurpn V A

Introduction

EU-T EU-T T EU-T EU T




A Common NeighborhoodParallel Approaches1

B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I

- ldquordquo Trsquo

E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T

S x EUrsquo EN P Frsquo ( Z E-A BArsquo Lrsquo ) Trsquo S W T EU - F S T F j





29

Filling the EUrsquos Credibility Gap

2

T EU T E

I E L EU j L x UNS C 973 ldquo Erdquo T F I x

EU E 3

A E E ldquo rdquo EN P (ENP) T C Ex A S

(euro ) EU 4 I EU

T B () ldquoA S E Srdquo BEPA Mny Brf I 46 A

3 D K () ldquoC M Ersquo A Srdquo Eurpn Cun n Frgn R-ns M

4 T E C- () Jn Cmmunn Eurpn Cun Eurpn Prmn Cun Eurpn Enm nd S Cmm nd Cmm f Rgn A Prnr-sp fr Dmry nd Srd Prspry w Surn

Mdrrnn COM () E C- () Jn Cmmunn Eurpn Cun Eurpn Prmn Cun Eurpn Enmnd S Cmm nd Cmm f Rgns A nwrspns ngng Ngburd Brusss M 5 COM () 33

C S F E E D D C FT A D MM S EU M P

A EUrsquo ldquoM Prdquo x 5 T Crsquo x x EUrsquo H U -

S - x E C J3-4

A S I EU G Ursquo S I EU Crsquo EUrsquo A S x M

5 S N T () ldquoT EU A S A (M) O R E N Prdquo EurMSCBrf R B () ldquoT A S M EU rdquoEurpn Py Cnr brf J E S L E V () ldquoR E N- P rdquoNs Inrnns CIDOB 36 B CIDOB




Updating Turkeyrsquos Zero-ProblemApproach3

I EU Trsquo E T -

T E Mrsquo T Trsquo A Trsquo 6 I - E T

L S AKP G A T T - - T 7

I Arsquo L S S Trsquo

I L 5 T L Arsquo A T q NATO M F F-T Prsquo LN T C

6 O T A M

Aışı () ldquoT A Prdquo Frgn PySrs I TESEV Aışı A T A ldquo A T A rdquo M A T

7 S P T ldquoH S L G B Trsquo Hrdquo TIME A 3

T L

T S x S Trsquo M E O T S

H L Trsquo A rsquo S Trsquo A T T S S T Eğ Guuml T T - A A

ldquordquo AKPrsquo x 8 I Eğrsquo J T T Trsquo 9

8 S Ouml Tşı ldquoZ P W TSrdquo Tdyrsquos Zmn A 5

9 S S Guuml ldquoM rdquoT Nw Yrk Tms J 6





31

The Need for Cooperation Despitea Difficult Relationship4

T EU T T

j A EU V EU T B EU T

j T EU-T

EU-T A C F P Trsquo T Trsquo EU C EU-P x

M C L I I T EU EU - T

F - T EU M E B EU-Trpprmn EU-NATO EU C S D

T C T AT x EU EU-W B

P M N M E EU T j A B ( P B) -

U ldquoB rdquo T NATO EU C S D P Trsquo j C EU-NATO EU-NATO




Pushing for Specific Joint-Actions

5

W EU-T

EU T MR T ldquo rdquo EUrsquo j Trsquo EU ( Ex A S) T q-

T EU CU

E EU T Trsquo T Trsquo EU T

bull d - Trsquo ( S)

bull - Trsquo E D A T EU T - EU-NATO

bull

S E EU M Trsquo M F A F T j

B Loacute EU A

bull DEVCO-EA TIKA (T C A) P P U TIKA E C

bull T CS F E E

D Trsquo Trsquo A T EU I

F EU T

bull j EUH R C F S P (CFSP) TF A M B L C Srsquo T B S Eğrsquo

I K T P M ldquoT A Srdquo (Tdyrsquos Zmn M 3) Trsquo A ldquo M B- E -Nd M T H P rdquo ldquoA- E T rdquo





33

bull

j ( S)

bull L Trsquox Iq T EU

j Lrsquo R Lrsquo j L

bull j S S R - x T EU x




Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -

C x EU-T E-M T EU-T j M E R q x H

EU T



The ldquoTurkish Modelrdquoin the Mirror of the Arab Spring1

H N

I 37

T A ldquoT Mrdquo 39

T A S P D 4

3 T T M Wrsquo I C E

R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H

M E M G L T x A S Y W A G T x

A

Y A A x S rsquo I

q A S I T A I J D P (AKP) T

G U S EU T I

W q T A W

B q ldquordquoI - I I - W E x

S - j ldquordquo I x

I x I

AKPrsquo x T lsquorsquo A U AKPrsquo x T N x x lsquorsquo lsquorsquo




I AKPrsquo x A ) AKPrsquo x ) A AKPrsquo x ) U S EU T x A





39

The Appeal of the ldquoTurkish modelrdquo

1

S O E q W-

-I T H AKP T - j T Trsquo AKP j

bull Stabilityanddemocracy P T x rsquo S T x 96 97 98 997 NE S- j

AKP T rsquo T Trsquo - E I- Trsquo j

j

bull Identityandalienation F T

T - E I- -I T AKP Trsquo I x j

bull Developmentandmodernization Trsquo H AKP G N P $3 $75 8 $33 $ A T T

6

6

Ebull Dependencyandanonautonomousrole

T W I Trsquo - AKPrsquo T T W I




U A T T

A Z E-A B A I E G Ersquo rsquo H Mrsquo G A T

A LY B S

D A W A W

A S Ersquo A E J 5R

TheEgyptianRevolutionasaModel

I E

bull T E - - q T

Ersquo ldquo rdquo I

bull A D -

K 4 (

) ldquoN x rdquo A6 ( ) M rsquo A6 8 E C AS 9 j ldquo--rdquo

NA C F E-Brsquo E T J 5 ldquoW A K Srdquo F ER

bull T j j T E R Mrsquo E T

The Arab Spring and the Prospectsfor Democratization2





41

E j

bull I I j

bull T j T S

- N j

F E j

bull

rsquo

bull rsquo N D P (NDP) j

bull j

- Ersquo q

S x

T ldquo rdquo D I

T W I




A q T I q mdash I j

W ldquoC Frdquo I ldquoEFrdquo x T rsquo j ) )

N j M I M

T - NDP D NDP A rsquo

T D

F S C A F(SCAF) TSCAF ) rsquo ) W SCAF

GM lsquorsquo

T x SCAF T

SCAF T SCAFrsquo





43

The Turkish model between the WestrsquosInterest and the Concerns of theEgyptian Revolution

3

T Wrsquo T T

I I W I T W A H T

x I q x A W ErsquoI M B J D P (AKP) T I

T T Ersquo I

W -I T ) I ) E T x I j

T E I E S

I E T Ersquo I T T M B S S T AKP I mdash S A

M Brsquo J F P E

I Ersquo I T Trsquo Trsquo A-I A x AKP

T A Trsquo B Trsquo T

I T W Trsquo

j E C T EU I EU x




T x j

D NATO - U S T j US q Iq 3 I A Iq Irsquo A W U S T R C W C A T A j Aj

Trsquo A-I A

x T I T I W T I S x Irsquo T S

S A Ersquo D WE F S P T Trsquo

I Irsquo T Mv Mrmr G

Ersquo lsquoT rsquo - Irsquo W Trsquo H x T I T A rsquo Trsquo A-I Trsquo I j M E T W TW T A I j A-I q

IW Trsquo E W T A T I W T A j P q W A x T





OFF I C E S



copy 2011 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States All rights reserved

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing

rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) Please direct inquiries to

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States

1744 R Street NW

Washington DC 20009

1 202 683 2650

F 1 202 265 1662

E inogmusorg

Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at wwwgmusorgpublications Limited print

copies are also available o request a copy send an e-mail to inogmusorg

GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta ellows and partners o the German

Marshall Fund o the United States Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the

views o GMF Comments rom readers are welcome reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to inogmusorg

About GMF

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmaking institu-

tion dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe on transatlantic

and global issues GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere by conven-

ing leaders and members o the policy and business communities by contributing research and analysis on transatlan-

tic topics and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship In

addition GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany

as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic In

addition to its headquarters in Washington DC GMF has seven oces in Europe Berlin Paris Brussels Belgrade Ankara

Bucharest and Warsaw GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava urin and Stockholm

About the Mediterranean Policy ProgramTe Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe North

Arica the Levant and the Mediterranean basin Priority areas include understanding trends in Mediterranean societies

exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-ranean security and development and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic

cooperation on Mediterranean strategy

About Istituto Affari InternazionaliTe Istituto Aari Internazionali (IAI) ounded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965 does research in the elds o oreign policy

political economics and international security A non-prot organization the IAI aims to disseminate knowledge through

research studies conerences and publications o that end it cooperates with other research institutes universities and

oundations in Italy and abroad and is a member o various international networks More specically the main research

sectors are European institutions and policies Italian oreign policy trends in the global economy and internationalization

processes in Italy the Mediterranean and the Middle East deense economy and policy and transatlantic relations Te IAI

puts out an English-language quarterly (Te International Spectator ) an online webzine ( AfarInternazionali) a series o

research papers (Quaderni IAI) and an Italian oreign policy yearbook (La Politica Estera dellrsquoItalia)

Cover photo Palestinian students hold the pictures o urkish Prime Minister Recep ayyip Erdogan and the urkish andPalestinian fags during rally beckoning him to visit the Gaza Strip at the port in Gaza City on Sep 13 2011

copy Ashra AmraZUMA PressCorbis






october 2011


D I A I (IAI) R

S F T B I W DC

3 B B C P I R L U


5 P P S C U

F

N T 3

T T M A

Oumlmr Tşpınr 7

C R A R T T A

Hnr J Brky 15


Edurd Sr L 25

T T M M A S

Hssn Nf 35







3


I NA M E B - A


j

T A S T T

I - A S T E U






















5



T A S




T ldquo rdquo EU


EU-T - EU-T-US -






Ouml Tşı

T F P L A S 9

T T M A S







9





















-O






11


2

T A S x -O T T


T M E A


- A G T Trsquo A q


q T


L


A TR Auuml







A 6 T

D I I x q


I

A T x- T

E A I T


T x T I






13


T x T





T A S






H J B

I 7

T M 8

T P M

3 T L

4 W C D C R D B 3







17

T A rsquo T


A





I

T x Trsquo T ME A

Introduction




Turkey as a Model

1



T


I Trsquo


F J D P (AKP)


Iq - T AKP K T 93








19

NATO EU I






T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T



T 98 N T



2





21


O T T 98 j T T j








B x T 98 x $ x I -x

T T x 8 A


T T A

T T j x


E T E 95

x

I E q G A Nrsquo


x x

I T E

The Lessons

3





23

Trsquo

T EU I Ersquo I

N - - x - x


I T I x - -A

T T j T T () x T







E S L

I 7

A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


EU E 3


(euro ) EU 4 I EU







S - x E C J3-4







I EU Trsquo E T -





6 O T A M



T L










31


T EU T T


j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


B Loacute EU A


bull T CS F E E


F EU T







33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

I 37


T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



I x I










39


1

S O E q W-




j




6

6






U A T T


A LY B S

D A W A W

A S Ersquo A E J 5R


I E

bull T E - - q T


bull A D -

K 4 (









41

E j

bull I I j

bull T j T S

- N j

F E j

bull

rsquo


bull j

- Ersquo q

S x

T ldquo rdquo D I

T W I




A q T I q mdash I j


N j M I M


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H N

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H N

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6 C 34







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Introduction

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bull


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bull

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Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

I 37


T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

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T x j


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13


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T A S






H J B

I 7

T M 8

T P M

3 T L

4 W C D C R D B 3







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T A rsquo T


A





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Introduction




Turkey as a Model

1



T


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Iq - T AKP K T 93








19

NATO EU I






T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

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B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T j x


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3





23

Trsquo

T EU I Ersquo I

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I T I x - -A

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

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31


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j T EU-T











5

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T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


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33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


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H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

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G U S EU T I

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T T Ersquo I


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T x j


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H J B

I 7

T M 8

T P M

3 T L

4 W C D C R D B 3







17

T A rsquo T


A





I

T x Trsquo T ME A

Introduction




Turkey as a Model

1



T


I Trsquo


F J D P (AKP)


Iq - T AKP K T 93








19

NATO EU I






T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T



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2





21


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B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T A

T T j x


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3





23

Trsquo

T EU I Ersquo I

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


EU E 3


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6 O T A M



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31


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j T EU-T











5

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T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


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33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

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I x I










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T A rsquo T


A





I

T x Trsquo T ME A

Introduction




Turkey as a Model

1



T


I Trsquo


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Iq - T AKP K T 93








19

NATO EU I






T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

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21


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B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T A

T T j x


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3





23

Trsquo

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


EU E 3


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6 O T A M



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31


T EU T T


j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


F EU T







33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

I 37


T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



I x I










39


1

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j




6

6






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I I W I T W A H T


T T Ersquo I


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M Brsquo J F P E



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OFF I C E S




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1



T


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F J D P (AKP)


Iq - T AKP K T 93








19

NATO EU I






T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T



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21


O T T 98 j T T j








B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T A

T T j x


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The Lessons

3





23

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






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M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

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T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


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6 O T A M



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31


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j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


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33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

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I x I










39


1

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j




6

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19

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T T 96 x


T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T



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2





21


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B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T A

T T j x


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3





23

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I T I x - -A

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

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T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


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6 O T A M



T L










31


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j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


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33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


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H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

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I x I










39


1

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j




6

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I I W I T W A H T


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M Brsquo J F P E



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T

A T j E C E U q T K

A T R T



T 98 N T



2





21


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B x T 98 x $ x I -x

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T T A

T T j x


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3





23

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







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H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


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6 O T A M



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31


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j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


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33

bull

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Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


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H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



I x I










39


1

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j




6

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I I W I T W A H T


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21


O T T 98 j T T j








B x T 98 x $ x I -x

T T x 8 A


T T A

T T j x


E T E 95

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The Lessons

3





23

Trsquo

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N - - x - x


I T I x - -A

T T j T T () x T







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I 7

A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

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T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


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T EU T E


EU E 3


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6 O T A M



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31


T EU T T


j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


F EU T







33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


EU T




H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



I x I










39


1

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j




6

6






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D A W A W

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bull I I j

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T Wrsquo T T

I I W I T W A H T


T T Ersquo I


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M Brsquo J F P E



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T x j


Trsquo A-I A










OFF I C E S




B x T 98 x $ x I -x

T T x 8 A


T T A

T T j x


E T E 95

x

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x x

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The Lessons

3





23

Trsquo

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N - - x - x


I T I x - -A

T T j T T () x T







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I 7

A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

T EU rsquo T






29


2

T EU T E


EU E 3


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6 O T A M



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31


T EU T T


j T EU-T











5

W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull T CS F E E


F EU T







33

bull

j ( S)







Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


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H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



I x I










39


1

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j




6

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T Wrsquo T T

I I W I T W A H T


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M Brsquo J F P E



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23

Trsquo

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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







27




H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


E T Trsquo

Ursquo -E H T EU A

T A S T EU x T A x

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29


2

T EU T E


EU E 3


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6 O T A M



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31


T EU T T


j T EU-T











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W EU-T


T EU CU




bull


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bull

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Conclusion

6

T EU T j

MT x - -


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H N

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T A S P D 4


R 43

T A E G D







37

Introduction

T A Z E-A B A T H


A

Y A A x S rsquo I


G U S EU T I

W q T A W



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39


1

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T Wrsquo T T

I I W I T W A H T


T T Ersquo I


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M Brsquo J F P E



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A C N P A 8

F EUrsquo C G 9

3 U Trsquo Z-P A 3

4 T N C D D R 3

5 P S J-A 3

6 C 34







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H T EU A

I EU-T A x


Introduction






B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


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T A S T EU x T A x

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2

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6 O T A M



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bull

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Conclusion

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H N

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T A S P D 4


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H T EU A

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B EU T x M F

M EU T EU M M E

MM T ME I


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R 43

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H N

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T A S P D 4


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Introduction

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H N

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T A S P D 4


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Introduction

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33

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6

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H N

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T A S P D 4


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6

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H N

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Introduction

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H N

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T A S P D 4


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T A E G D







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Introduction

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Introduction

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turkey and the arab spring: implications for turkish foreign policy from a transatlantic perspective

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