Turkey and China: Seeking Turkey and China: Seeking a Sustainable Partnershipa Sustainable Partnership

Doç.Dr. Selçuk ÇolakoğluDoç.Dr. Selçuk ÇolakoğluAdnan Menderes UniversityAdnan Menderes University

SETA FoundationSETA Foundation14 December 2009 / Ankara14 December 2009 / Ankara

Recent HistoryRecent History Turkey recognized People’s Republic of Turkey recognized People’s Republic of

China on 5 August 1971 as the sole China on 5 August 1971 as the sole legal representative of China.legal representative of China.

Turkey has also begun pursue one-Turkey has also begun pursue one-China policy.China policy.

However, the relationship had rHowever, the relationship had remained emained in the lowest levein the lowest level l during the 1970s and during the 1970s and 1980s1980s

SSuspicioususpicious Partnership (1991- Partnership (1991-96)96)

TThe collapse of the he collapse of the Soviet UnionSoviet Union and the and the emergence of newly independent Turkic emergence of newly independent Turkic satessates in 1991 in 1991, which enabled Turkey to re-, which enabled Turkey to re-discover Central Asia in its foreign policy.discover Central Asia in its foreign policy.

Turkish public have emotionally welcomed Turkish public have emotionally welcomed the newly-born Turkic republics and in this the newly-born Turkic republics and in this context began to pay more attention Turkic context began to pay more attention Turkic and Muslim groups living in the Russian and Muslim groups living in the Russian Federation and Xinjiang region of China.Federation and Xinjiang region of China.

Therefore, Russia and China had put a Therefore, Russia and China had put a negative reaction against Turkish policy negative reaction against Turkish policy toward Central Asia and the Caucasus.toward Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Estaplishing Mutual Trust (1997-Estaplishing Mutual Trust (1997-2002)2002)

Since mid-1990s, Turkey has begun to Since mid-1990s, Turkey has begun to pursue more cautious diplomatic policy pursue more cautious diplomatic policy toward Central Asia instead of an toward Central Asia instead of an assertive policy, and tried to improve assertive policy, and tried to improve good relations with Russia and China. good relations with Russia and China.

Turkish officials began to pay more Turkish officials began to pay more attention to the Chinese authority’s attention to the Chinese authority’s stance on Xinjiang. The new Turkish stance on Xinjiang. The new Turkish regional policy warmly welcomed by regional policy warmly welcomed by China. China.

Turkey’s Expectations from Turkey’s Expectations from ChinaChina

Turkey had certainly revised its policy toward Turkey had certainly revised its policy toward China in 1997 because of certain political, China in 1997 because of certain political, economic and security concerns. economic and security concerns.

Turkey expectedTurkey expected that China might play a that China might play a balancer role for Turkish foreign policy in balancer role for Turkish foreign policy in international politics.international politics.

IIn terms of economy, Turkey considered n terms of economy, Turkey considered China as a major potential trade partner and China as a major potential trade partner and hence attempted to improve economic hence attempted to improve economic relations with Beijing. relations with Beijing.

China, providing economically more feasible China, providing economically more feasible options, was a strategic alternative for options, was a strategic alternative for Turkish defense industry.Turkish defense industry.

Turkish-Chinese HoneymoonTurkish-Chinese Honeymoon

President Jiang Zemin’s Turkey visit on April President Jiang Zemin’s Turkey visit on April 18-21, 2000 was a clear declaration of the 18-21, 2000 was a clear declaration of the opening of a new chapter in bilateral opening of a new chapter in bilateral relations. relations.

President Süleyman Demirel and President President Süleyman Demirel and President Jiang Zemin signed several agreements in the Jiang Zemin signed several agreements in the field of political, economic, and energy field of political, economic, and energy cooperation. Both presidents made a common cooperation. Both presidents made a common statement on the compromise of fighting statement on the compromise of fighting against international terrorism, ethnic against international terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism.separatism and religious extremism.

Turkey gaveTurkey gave enough guarantees enough guarantees to Chinato China not not interfere in interfere in XinjiangXinjiang issue. issue.

Developing Economic RelationsDeveloping Economic Relations & &Weakening Political Dialogue (2003-Weakening Political Dialogue (2003-

20082008)) Throughout the developments in the bilateral Throughout the developments in the bilateral relations from 1997 to 200relations from 1997 to 20088, China has been on , China has been on the more advantageous side as the relations the more advantageous side as the relations have been oriented to China, at least in economic have been oriented to China, at least in economic field. field.

OOne of the main motivations of Ankara’s ne of the main motivations of Ankara’s rapprochement to Beijing was to get some rapprochement to Beijing was to get some economic benefits to Turkish businessmen in economic benefits to Turkish businessmen in China. However, the increasing trade volume with China. However, the increasing trade volume with China caused huge trade imbalances for Turkey. China caused huge trade imbalances for Turkey.

According to 2008 figures, China got a huge According to 2008 figures, China got a huge surplus in the amount of $15 billions trade with surplus in the amount of $15 billions trade with Turkey. Turkey.

Chinese investment in Turkey remained only $60 Chinese investment in Turkey remained only $60 millions in 2008.millions in 2008.

Trade Imbalances between Turkey and Trade Imbalances between Turkey and ChinaChina

The Green Line: Turkey’s ExportThe Green Line: Turkey’s ExportThe Blue Line. Turkey’s Import The Blue Line. Turkey’s Import

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İhracat İthalat

Some PSome Policy olicy DDifferencesifferences Ankara and Beijing could not able to develop a Ankara and Beijing could not able to develop a

common attitude in the Turkey-related cases, common attitude in the Turkey-related cases, such as Kosovo, Bosnia, Cyprus, and Karabag such as Kosovo, Bosnia, Cyprus, and Karabag issues.issues.

Turkey disappointed when China has begun to Turkey disappointed when China has begun to establish so closed relations with the Kurdistan establish so closed relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq since 2003, Regional Government in Iraq since 2003, particularly during the time in which the crisis particularly during the time in which the crisis between Turkey and Kurdish authorities has between Turkey and Kurdish authorities has been escalated because of the PKK militants’ been escalated because of the PKK militants’ infiltration to Turkish soils. infiltration to Turkish soils.

China has officially objected to a possible cross-China has officially objected to a possible cross-border operation by Turkey into neighboring border operation by Turkey into neighboring Iraq in order to eliminate the presence of the Iraq in order to eliminate the presence of the PKK based in Northern Iraq since June 2007. PKK based in Northern Iraq since June 2007.

VaryagVaryag case case China gave assurance to China gave assurance to

Turkey that Turkey that VaryagVaryag would would be used only for touristic be used only for touristic purposes in passing purposes in passing through Turkish straits in through Turkish straits in 2001 and the passage 2001 and the passage permission was requested permission was requested in the same line.in the same line.

China has modernized China has modernized VaryagVaryag as warship in as warship in 2009 which was a clear 2009 which was a clear violation of the Montreux violation of the Montreux ConventionConvention regulating regulating military activity in the military activity in the Black Sea.Black Sea.

President Gül’s Breakthrough China President Gül’s Breakthrough China VisitVisit

Turkey and China have indeed buildup a new Turkey and China have indeed buildup a new political partnership. political partnership.

President Gül stressed Turkey’s "one-China" President Gül stressed Turkey’s "one-China" policy and repeated the emphasis that policy and repeated the emphasis that Xinjiang is an integral part of China.Xinjiang is an integral part of China.

President Gül referred in his speech on 28 President Gül referred in his speech on 28 June 2009 at Xinjiang University in Urumchi June 2009 at Xinjiang University in Urumchi that the Uyghur people in Xinjiang would form that the Uyghur people in Xinjiang would form a bridge of friendship between China and a bridge of friendship between China and Turkey. Turkey.

President Gül stressed on that Turkey wanted President Gül stressed on that Turkey wanted to see Uighur people to see Uighur people as as happy and happy and prosperous citizens of Chinaprosperous citizens of China

Turkish Demands in EconomicsTurkish Demands in Economics Turkey wants the Turkey wants the

compensation of the compensation of the bilateral trade bilateral trade imbalances in favor of imbalances in favor of China through China through

- - increase in Chinese increase in Chinese investments in Turkey,investments in Turkey,

-- inbound tourism from inbound tourism from China, China,

- - joint-ventures in the joint-ventures in the third countriesthird countries,,

- - more opening of the more opening of the Chinese market to the Chinese market to the Turkish products.Turkish products.

Xinjiang IssueXinjiang Issue

The Urumchi riots The Urumchi riots erupted on July 5th erupted on July 5th 2009, just six days 2009, just six days after President Gül’s after President Gül’s Urumchi visit, have Urumchi visit, have terribly undermined terribly undermined new Turkish-new Turkish-Chinese partnership Chinese partnership concept.concept.

Xinjiang IssueXinjiang Issue TThere is popular here is popular

interest in the interest in the Xinjiang issue Xinjiang issue amongst the Turkish amongst the Turkish public, which creates public, which creates a tremendous civil a tremendous civil pressure on the pressure on the Turkish Government. Turkish Government.

This explains the This explains the high and intense high and intense level of Turkish level of Turkish response to the response to the Urumchi riots. Urumchi riots.

Turkey’s Position in Xinjiang IssueTurkey’s Position in Xinjiang Issue Ankara has been carefully following and Ankara has been carefully following and

implementing its “one China” policy and implementing its “one China” policy and considering Xinjiang as an integral part of considering Xinjiang as an integral part of China without any hesitation. China without any hesitation.

Turkey’s interest to Uyghur people is no Turkey’s interest to Uyghur people is no different than China’s interest toward the different than China’s interest toward the overseas Chinese living in the Southeast overseas Chinese living in the Southeast Asian countries. Asian countries.

As China could actively involve in Chinese As China could actively involve in Chinese minority living in Southeast Asia for decades minority living in Southeast Asia for decades as a sign of national responsibility, as a sign of national responsibility, no oneno one should never calls Ankara’s interest to Uyghur should never calls Ankara’s interest to Uyghur people as a support of separatism.people as a support of separatism.

Future CooperationFuture Cooperation Turkey and China have forged a good Turkey and China have forged a good

economic and political relationship in economic and political relationship in recent years. recent years.

Both countries provide great economic, Both countries provide great economic, political and strategic opportunities to political and strategic opportunities to each other in their own regions. each other in their own regions.

TThere is a need to strengthen this here is a need to strengthen this relationship and transform them into a relationship and transform them into a strategic partnershipstrategic partnership to get much to get much competitive stance in international competitive stance in international relations for both sides.relations for both sides.

Benefits for TurkeyBenefits for Turkey

China has aroused a potential strategic China has aroused a potential strategic partner in East Asia for supporting partner in East Asia for supporting Turkey’s high profile presentation in the Turkey’s high profile presentation in the region. region.

China would provide an economic and China would provide an economic and strategic gateway to China itself and strategic gateway to China itself and East Asia; make foreign direct East Asia; make foreign direct investment to Turkey. Besides, Turkish-investment to Turkey. Besides, Turkish-Chinese firms would build joint-Chinese firms would build joint-ventures in third countries.ventures in third countries.

Benefits for ChinaBenefits for China Chinese economy has been heavily dependent on the Chinese economy has been heavily dependent on the

Middle Eastern energy resources and has exported Middle Eastern energy resources and has exported the Middle East oil and gas through a route from the the Middle East oil and gas through a route from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. Chinese goods Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. Chinese goods have also been transferred to the African, West Asian have also been transferred to the African, West Asian and European markets using the same route, i.e. and European markets using the same route, i.e. South China Sea-Malacca Strait-Indian Ocean. South China Sea-Malacca Strait-Indian Ocean.

By depending only one western transfer road create By depending only one western transfer road create a quite fragile situation for the Chinese trade a quite fragile situation for the Chinese trade security. The so-called ‘Contemporary Silk Road’ security. The so-called ‘Contemporary Silk Road’ starting form China to Turkey through Central Asia starting form China to Turkey through Central Asia and the Caucasus could provide a northern landline and the Caucasus could provide a northern landline alternative road to the southern sea line to China. alternative road to the southern sea line to China.

Turkey, having direct links to West Asia, Africa and Turkey, having direct links to West Asia, Africa and Europe, is the only potential dealer for Chinese goods Europe, is the only potential dealer for Chinese goods of the ‘Contemporary Silk Road’of the ‘Contemporary Silk Road’

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