Tunisia: A Divergent PathTyler McDonald

Official Name: Tunisian Republic

Population: 10,732,900 (est. July 2012)

Language: Arabic, (French used in government and commerce)

Religion: Islam 98% Christian 1% Judaism 1%

Ethnicities: Arab 98% , Berber 1% Other 1%

Central Thesis

The authoritarian and oppressive regime attempted to implement liberal reforms in order to maintain power. These proved to be a double-edged sword; prompting significant economic growth, while spawning popular uprisings against the regime and ultimately leading to the Arab Spring.

A successful transition will serve as a model for other countries, while a failure potentially stands to unravel the progress of the Arab Spring.

Brief Modern History 1956 20 March - Tunisia becomes independent with Bourguiba as prime minister. 1981 - First multi-party parliamentary elections since independence. President

Bourguiba's party wins by a landslide. 1987 - Bloodless palace coup: Prime Minister Zine El Abidine Ben Ali has President

Bourguiba declared mentally unfit to rule and takes power himself. 1989 - Ben Ali wins presidential elections. He goes on to be re-elected four more times. 1999 - First multi-party presidential elections; Ben Ali wins a third term. 2002 May - President Ben Ali wins a referendum on constitutional changes, paving the

way for his fourth term. 2009 October - President Ben Ali wins a fifth term in office. 2010 December - Protests break out over unemployment and political restrictions, and

spread nationwide. 2011 January - President Ben Ali goes into exile amid continuing protests. Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi announces an interim national unity

government, only partly satisfying protesters. 2011 October 23 - Parliamentary elections. Ennahda Islamist party wins, but falls short

of an outright majority. 2011 November - National assembly which will draft a new constitution meets for first

time. 2012 May - Hundreds of Salafi Islamic extremists clash with security forces and attack

a police station 2012 June - Former president Ben Ali is sentenced to life in prison over the killing of

protesters

Political EconomyTHEN•Strong rates of growth since independence•Economic success in large part due to manufacturing but industry and services also significant•Well-educated workforce; 80% are considered middle class citizens with a per capita income of $3000•Most open trading of the Maghreb countries (imports/exports reached 92.5% GDP in 2004)•Relied heavily on West/EU for trade•Remittances, tourism, export agriculture, FDI bolstered economy•Unemployment was still an issue despite economic growth and was exacerbated by world economic crisis•State economic involvement highest in heavy industry, infrastructure, and domestic services•6 period of political economic development (institutional development, nationalization, private sector promotion, economic crisis and adjustment, limited structural reforms)

Now•Economy is suffering post Arab Spring•Tourism, remittances, FDI all hit hard

Political Dynamics

THEN Government Type: Republic

Strong Central ExecutiveMixed legal system of civil law and French civil codeSingle Party System?

Article 8

President Habib BourguibaPartie Democratique Socialiste (PSD)“President for life”

Bloodless coup d’etat

President Zine al-Albidine Ben Ali Rassemblement Constitutionel Democratique (RCD)Many Political Reforms

NOW (POST ARAB SPRING) National Constitutional Assembly

Multi-Party elections Rise of Islamist Party - EnnahdaAppointment of an Interim Government

President – Moncef MarzoukiPrime Minister – Hamadi Jebali

Draft a Constitution

Mixed Parliamentary System?Announced elections

Secular vs Salafists Movement

Social Dynamics

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0b8hPCMuAk

THEN•French rule had heavy influence•3 groups propelled nationalism:• Young Tunisians• Destour movement• Neo Destour

•Bourguiba reformed Personal Status Code with political motivation•Creating the Parti Democratique Socialiste (PSD) tied the government to society even further• Focused most of its social development in

education and creating private sector• “technos” and away from “ethnos”

•State control over society not always secure; widespread strikes and labor protests in 1978 and 1983•Ben Ali utilized extreme secularism

NOW•Salafist movement• Not official political

party thus taking shape within society

• Able to develop alongside new freedom

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFqv9dkWEN4

Then:Oriented to the West

Substantial development and military assistance from the U.S

Economic partnerships with France and the EU

Attempted to be key diplomatic figure in the regionCease fire in Algerian IndependenceIsraeli Arab agreement proposal

Now:Still oriented to the WestEffect of Ennadha?

Foreign Policy Goals

Military/Security

•Army and police force constitutionally under command of the President•Army is conscripted; police/national guards recruit members•Network of clandestine intelligence services permeated society•Military and security were not formally attached to politics but Ben Ali rose to power through intelligence•Security played major role in policing after bloodless coup•Under Ben Ali, Islamist “threat” met by zero tolerance policy and was monitored by security•Military serves with UN intl peacekeeping forces •Close relationship with the West•-Support of US anti-terrorism efforts

Relations with Neighbors

Then:Relations with Algeria and Libya are complicated, at best.

Fear of “Revolutionary Socialism”Initially supported the FLN in Algeria and

worked for cease-fireRelations deteriorated with failure of

diplomatic agreement

Moderate-Arab nationalism Arab-Israeli Negotiations Support for Yemeni Royalists Expulsion from the Arab League

Now:Algeria is cautious of Tunisia, fearing spill over from the popular uprisingsLibyan-Tunisian relations have strengthened

Rebuilding of Eastern Libya

Relations with Europe and U.STHEN:•History of close ties with the West

•Joined IMF in 1958

•Housed the PLO after Lebanese invasion in 1981

•First country to sign EU European-Mediterranean partnership (MEDA) agreement

•Opposed the first Gulf War against Iraq and the US led invasion in 2003

NOW:•West is hesitant to become involved in Tunisian affairs

•Growing presence of Salafists/Islamists deepen West’s fears of instability/failure of Arab Spring

So What?

- Tunisia remains a strategic ally for the United States and the West in their goal to stop the spread of religious extremism and a model for development and progress in a volatile region.

- Tunisia is on the precipice of two different paths. If Tunisia can maintain stability and democratize, it will serve as a model for other Arab Spring states and future states undergoing similar processes. If Tunisia fails, it stands to potentially further destabilize the volatile region and unravel the progress made by the Arab Spring, as the others will most likely fail.

Works Cited

The Middle East (Text). “Tunisia” (Pp 702-729)

Hachana, Mohamed Nejib. "Twenty Years of Change: Tunisia's Journey of Progress Continues." Mediterranean Quarterly 19, no. 2 (Spring2008): 1-4.

  Sanchez, Alejandro. "Tunisia: Trading Freedom for Stability May Not Last - An

International Security Perspective." Defense Studies 9, no. 1 (March 1, 2009): 85-92.

“Tunisia Country Report.” Economist Intelligence Unit, April 2010

US State Department: Tunisia: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5439.htm

CIA World Factbook: Tunisia https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ts.html