tsunami preparedness: schools and communities · tsunami preparedness: schools and communities...
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Tsunami Preparedness:
Schools and Communities
Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies
Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness
17-19 October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan
Laura Kong Director
International Tsunami Information Center
Plan of Talk
Tsunamis – where, when, what
What happened – 2009, 2010, 2011
How to Prepare when there is no time – basic minimums
Examples – many ways, many solutions by all repeatedly
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Where do destructive tsunamis occur?
Fewer are distant tsunamis
Most are local/regional tsunamis
All tsunamis
UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Glossary 2008
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
How often do
tsunamis occur?
1900-2011: ~1
fatal tsunami/yr
99% from local tsunamis
WHY IS A TSUNAMI
A HAZARD?
WAVE HEIGHTS GROW IN SHALLOW WATER
Best Case: Quickly Rising Tide
Worst Case: Wall of water with rocks
and debris
Runups > 30 m
April 1, 1946
Aleutian Islands earthquake
Hilo, Hawaii
220,149
Somalia - 430
8,327
16,389
35,262
Myanmar - 100
Tanzania - 15
Seychelles - 3 Kenya - 1
80
Maldives - 108
Casualties Data source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 9 March 2005; TMA
WHY IS A TSUNAMI
A HAZARD?
DANGER CONTINUES FOR MANY HOURS
HIGH FATALITY HAZARD
GLOBAL IMPACT blind to political boundaries
Locally,
arrives in
minutes
Distant,
travels hours
across
Ocean
230,000 deaths - 11 countries
1 million displaced
2 TSUNAMI THREATS
LOCAL / REGIONAL:
• Generated nearby
• Strikes shore quickly (in minutes)
=> NO TIME for official evacuation
Education, Awareness
Every person recognizes / acts immediately
DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE:
• Generated far away, instr detection
• Strikes shore later (2+ hours)
=> TIME for official evacuation
• Widespread Damage
Tsunami Warning Centre, then
People know what to do and where to go - evacuate
July 12, 1993,Japan Sea
May 22, 1960, Chile tsunami in Hilo
Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies
Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness
17-19 October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan
2009, 2010, 2011:
Deadly Pacific Tsunamis
29 September 2009
• M8.0 earthquake and local tsunami
– Strong shaking felt > 60 s, possible > 2 min
– Tsunami arrived 10-20 min after EQ
– Observed runup 16-17+ m in Samoa, Am Samoa, Tonga
– Extensive coastal dmg (e.g., structures, reefs destroyed)
– Casualties (191): Samoa (149), Am Samoa (34), Tonga (9)
– Complicated double event – doesn’t matter to public at time
• Early Warning
– Existing international alert system (PTWC): 11 min for 1st
unofficial estimate (16 min for official). Improvements
through intl data sharing discussed since 2007
– Local tsunami alerts require immediate action – Don’t wait!
29 Sept 2009 – South Pacific Tsunami
Samoa–American Samoa–Tonga: 191 deaths
• Pre-event awareness / education saved lives
- For last decade, continuously
- 2006, 2008 Pacific-wide tsunami exercise
- Sept 2010 AS Disaster Preparedness month
• People heeded Natural Warning Signs
- Earthquake shaking a ‘wake-up’ call
- Small receding wave ~10 min after
➠ Tsunami coming
➠ Head inland and to high ground
• 1st large damaging wave 10-20 min after
• Few died returning before it was safe (to help)
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Exercise and Drills • Drill evacuation of schools and communities
• Exercise communications protocols
• Exercise all levels of government
Washington Emergency Management Division
Tsunami Exercise / Drills
Samoa Indonesia, 2005 – 2010+
27 February 2010 - Chile
• M8.8 earthquake and local tsunami
– Strong shaking felt for several minutes
– Tsunami arrived 15-30 min after EQ
– 156 tsunami deaths
– Observed runups 10+ m, 50 m splash
– Extensive coastal dmg; destructive waves for 3-4 hours
– ‘Few’ casualties; good building codes
– Coastal residents aware (remember 1960, signage/inundation
maps, education, reminder 2005/2007), but ‘tourists’ were not
• Early Warning
– PTWC Regional (+10 min 1st unofficial, +12 official warning)
– Local tsunami alerts require immediate action
• Heed Natural Warnings – Do not wait for official alerts
• Preparedness, Education, Awareness key for success
11 March 2011 - Japan
• M9.0 earthquake and local tsunami
– Strong shaking felt for several minutes
– Tsunami arrived 20-30 min after EQ
– 20,000+ tsunami deaths
– Observed runups 10-25+ m, 40 m up valley, up to 5-6 km inland
– Extensive structural damage, despite good building codes
– Japan known for tsunami preparedness, but tsunami was bigger
(bigger than 1896 / 1933 Sanriku…)
• Early Warning
– JMA National (+3 min initial; +28 min upgraded warning)
• EQ Early Warning worked, but problems with false aftershocks
• GPS off-shore, surface buoy confirms ~15 min after eq
– Local Warnings (sirens) work, but it is not enough
• Heed Natural Warnings – Do not wait for official alerts
• Education, Awareness key for success
– Forecast justify evacuation (Japan, Hawaii, Chile) - How high?
1896 Meiji-Sanriku
1896 Meiji-
Sanriku
92.4%: Drowning
4.4%: Crushed
1.1%: Fire
2%: Unknown
11 March 2011
Cause of Death
1896 Meiji-Sanriku
1896 Meiji-
Sanriku
1923 Kanto EQ
Total deaths: 105,385
Fire: 87.1%
Collapsed house: 10.5%
In the factory: 1.4%
Flow out or buried: 1.0%
Cause of Death -
Past earthquakes
1896 Meiji-Sanriku
1896 Meiji-
Sanriku
1995 Kobe
(Hanshin Awaji)
Death: 6,434
Missing: 3
Crushed: 83.3%
Fire: 12.8%
Unknown: 3.9%:
Cause of Death -
Past earthquakes
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Call for Action
“We cannot stop natural calamities,
but we can and must better equip individuals and communities to
withstand them.”
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
26 December 2004
230,000 dead, 500,000 injured, 1 million displaced, $8 billion in damages
“Anticipating, educating and informing are the keys to
reducing the deadly affect of such natural disasters.
Unfortunately such activities have not been given priority.”
UNESCO Director-General, Koïchiro Matsuura, 3 January 2005
Introduction
Tsunami Awareness
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
TWC Natl / Provincial
/Local Govt
Country Alert System
Public
Emerg Alert System & Mass Media
EQ Tsunami
ITIC, SeismicReady Consulting 2009, after Japan Cabinet Office 2005
TSUNAMI WARNING!
EVACUATE
End-to-End Tsunami Warning
Intl / Natl
Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies
Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness
17-19 October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan
Key Strategies
Early Warning System Saves Lives
Proper Instruments detect early
Warning informs
Awareness enables
Preparedness guides
Planning means faster response
Mitigation Countermeasures reduce
impact
Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use
Stakeholder Coordination facilitates
High-level Advocacy sustains
Japan
ADRC
Tsunami Public Awareness - Localization
Know what to do:
Earthquake 1st, then tsunami Samoa
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Tsunami Evacuation Map
“Local tsunami evacuation maps developed from inundation
modeling, mapping, and community input”
event
Abredeen, Washington
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Evacuation Problems?
Issues:
• No high ground exists
• No time to go inland to
high ground
• Special needs populations
Solutions:
• Vertical evacuation
Seaside, Oregon
Considering Vertical Evacuation?
If … No High Ground, No Time, Traffic
Designating tsunami-safe structures
Engineering response to tsunami loading
Vertical evacuation, Waikiki, Hawaii, 1994
How to Prepare – basic minimums
Tsunami are no-notice, rapidly evolving hazards; there will be no time to discuss /deliberate, therefore you must be ready.
Pre-planning – agencies/responders, businesses, schools, families, individuals
Practiced plans to ensure familiarity (no panic)
Response starts with Preparedness
Early
Warning
Awareness &
education
Actions in
response to the
warnings:
Warning
Dissemination &
Evacuation
Contingency
Plans
Mitigation
Search &
Rescue
Response to the
disaster
Disaster
Preparedness
Reconstruction &
Rehabilitation
Humanitarian
Affairs
Planning &
regulations
Technical
Measures
Disaster Risk Reduction
Response
Evacuation
Focus on SOP
Warning People
Priorities:
•Local Tsunamis – 1 hr or less
•How will you know – Natural Warnings
•What will you do? – Evacuation Map, Vertical
Evacuation in strong structures
Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies
Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness
17-19 October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan
The Way Forward – Being Practical
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Communicating Alerts
Tsunami Warning Information
Natural Tsunami Warnings
• Strong coastal earthquake shaking
• Rapid sea level changes
• Roaring sound
Official Information
• Federal, State, Local govt
• Important for distant tsunamis
Informal Information
• Friends, neighbors, relatives
• Media, SMS, social networks…
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
How to Improve Tsunami
Response • Pre-event public education/outreach workshops,
town meetings, focus groups, etc…
– Know tsunami natural warning signs
– Have evacuation maps
– Know evacuation routes/evacuation assembly areas
– Know community support network
– Have family plan and preparedness kit
– Know response for local and distant tsunamis
– Know community warning system
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
Local
Government
Individuals
and
Household School Community
Community Preparedness
Key Stakeholders - Community Preparedness
Indonesian
Institute of
Science
Irina-lipi©
Preliminary Results: Probability of falling or sliding
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
浸水深(m )
確率
転倒等確率(男性)
転倒等確率(女性)
転倒率(男性)
転倒率・近似曲線(男性)転倒率・近似曲線(女性)
Tsunami Warning in Japan * Tsunami Height is 50cm
Pro
bab
ility
of
falli
ng
or
slid
ing
Inundation depth (m)
Men
Women
For falling only (men)
sliding
falling
Arikawa, Japan PARI, 2010
children
Developing Community Resiliency
Identify a Tsunami Champion
Locally connected, Passionate
Advocate for safety
Communication, Organizing
Volunteer-raising Seaside, OR Tsunami
Outreach Coord
Become TsunamiReady (USA)
• Community-based decisions
• Receive / respond to warnings - Plans
• Education – start in schools
• Evacuation Maps, Signag
• Exercises
UNESCO/IOC-NOAA
International Tsunami Information Center
ADVICE
•Be Prepared. Be Aware. Be educated.
– Hope for the best, but plan for the worst
– Don’t delay response
•Engineer Appropriately. Codes and Enforcement
– Primary is Life Safety
– Design for community resilience
– Design for economic recovery
•Educate and Train – everyone
– Increase public awareness of threat /required response
– Develop effective warning systems and evacuation plans
– Practice, practice, practice.