tsd in reptiles how the physical and the physiological conspire to defeat global warming arthur...
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TSD in Reptiles
How the physical andthe physiological conspireto defeat global warming
Arthur Georges
Applied Ecology Research GroupUniversity of Canberra
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Sex versus Temperature
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Established Results
Dramatic effect – usually 100% of one sex or the other
Only a small range of temperatures (threshold) produces both sexes
TSD is widespread among reptiles
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European Pond Turtle (France)
NESTMEANTEMP
RANGEEXPSEX
OBSSEX
I 24.8 7.5 male female
II 23.9 6.0 male male
III 26.8 5.9 male female
IV 25.8 5.7 male female
V 25.5 5.0 male female
Threshold = 28°C
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Temperatures in Natural Nests
Temperaturesrecorded atfour depthsover 24hrs
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American Map Turtles
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Diel Cycle
Daily Temperature
Cycle
T = R Cos (t) + M
where M is the meanand +/-R is the range
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Diel Cycle
Daily Temperature
Cycle
T = R Cos (t) + M
where M is the meanand +/-R is the range
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Diel Cycle
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Diel Cycle
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Linear CTE Model
CTE = R.Cos (t’) + M
t’ = - sin (t’) R
2 M – T0
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Predicting Sex
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American Map Turtles
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Development Rate
Development Rate
increases linearly with time
= A(T – T0)
where T0 is thedevelopmental zero
ds
dt
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Sex vs Temperature
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Sex ratios versusDaily range
At a fixed mean of 26°C
Line = model prediction
Loggerhead Turtles
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Loggerhead Turtles
Sex ratios versusDaily range
At a fixed mean of 26°C
Line = model prediction
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Daily Thermal Regimes
Mean temperaturevaries a little –
by 0.6°C
Daily range variesby up to 3.0 °C
CTE variesby about 2.0 °C
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Thermal Gradients
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Development in Carettochelys
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Core Temperature Trace
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Core Temperature Trace
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Core Temperature Trace
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Linear Model
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Fitting Non-linear Models
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Sharpe-DeMichelle Model
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Incubation Period
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Sex
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Sex
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Conclusion
Contrary to previous reports…
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Conclusion
Global warming may well NOT be the female turtle’s answer to male chauvinism!
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Single Switch
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Title?
Patterns of oxygen
consumption during incubation
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Linear CTE Model – example
Emys orbicularis – France (Pieau, 1982)
T0 = 16.1, Mean = 24.8°C, R = 7.5 °C
t’ = 0.8980 (6 hrs 51 mins) after 14 iterations
CTE = 29.5 °C
CTE = R.Cos (t’) + M
t’ = - sin (t’) R
2 M – T0
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Refinement #1
When temperatures drop below the developmental zero each day
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Yet to be done…
Test the utility of the models in real field situations
Test the Linear CTE Model with Threshold in the laboratory, incorporate the Sharpe-DeMichelle Model
Simplify computation – the WEB
Explore the broader implications for hatchling phenotypes in general
Global warming
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Double Switch
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European Pond Turtle (France)
NESTMEANTEMP
RANGE CTEEXPSEX
OBSSEX
I 24.8 7.5 29.5 female female
II 23.9 6.0 27.4 male male
III 26.8 5.9 29.6 female female
IV 25.8 5.7 28.6 both female
V 25.5 5.0 27.8 male female
Threshold = 28°C
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Sex versus Temperature