trying to understand vulnerability to environmental change using historic case studies. evan fraser...
TRANSCRIPT
Trying to understand vulnerability to environmental
change using historic case studies.
Evan Fraser ([email protected])Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment,
University of Leeds
http://uts.cc.utexas.edu/~marl/images/Tikal.JPG
http://www.yorku.ca/kdenning/vikings/greenland4greathall.jpeg
Schroter, D., et al. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310, 1333-1337.
Entitlements and Livelihoods
Bebbington, A. (1999) Capitals and capabilities: A framework for analyzing peasant viability, rural livelihoods and poverty. World Development, 27, 2021-2044.
Turner, B. et al. 2003. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNAS. 100 (4). 8074-8079.
http://concubine.net/photography/images/0310_cig.jpghttp://www.discoverycanada.ca/images/Forest%20Fire.jpg
Diversity in ecosystem
High (less vulnerable) Low (more vulnerable)
Con
necti
vit
y o
f ecosyste
m
Low
(le
ss v
uln
era
ble
)H
igh
(m
ore
vu
lnera
ble
)
Low (less
vulnera
ble)
High (m
ore vuln
erable
)
Biom
ass in
eco
syst
em
Gunderson, L. and Holling, C. (2002) Panarchy. Washington D.C.: Island Press
Strengths Gaps
GCM Models Predictive power How to capture adaptation?
Livelihoods Captures adaptation through local context
Environmental sensitivity?
Vulnerability Framework
Establishes scales
How usable?
Landscape ecology
Environmental variables and changes through time
Doesn’t really work for human systems
Can we identify common characteristics of food systems that are “sensitive to changes in the environment” by studying past cases where environmental change led to famine?
Severity of “environmental change” (e.g. drought)
Impa
ct o
f en
viro
nmen
tal c
hang
e (e
.g.
yiel
d)
Resilient
Vulnerable
Harvest
Impacts
Economic
Impacts
Health impacts
Case I: The Irish Potato Famine
1845-50
• 1 million died, 1 million emigrated (1/4 of population) when the potato crop failed due to a fungal blight.
• Blights struck earlier in Irish History.
• The blight is still the most significant pest affecting potato crops world wide.
Therefore, what was different about Ireland in 1845 that made it more vulnerable?
Case II: The “Late-Victorian
Famines”
Photo from cover of: Davis, M. (2001) Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nino famines and the making of the third world, London, Verso.
• Between 1875 and 1902 El Nino induced droughts killed an upwards of 45 million people in the monsoon region.
• Historically, droughts in this region are common. Famine (at least on this scale) is not.
• Why was this region so vulnerable in the late nineteenth century?
Case III: Ethiopia 1960-1997
year location no_killed 1965 Nationwide 20001969 Hamasion division 01973 Tigre, Wollo, North Shoa 1000001974 Wollo, Tigray, Kangra provinces 2000001975 Kangra 01977 Wollo, Tigre provinces 01978 Wollo, Tigre provinces 01983 Wollo, Gondar, Goe, Eritrea, Tigrai 01984 Wollo, Tigray, Eritrea, Shoa, Gonder, Harerge, Sidamo 3000001987 Eritrea, Tigray, Wello, Shewa, Gama, Gofa, Sidamo, Gondar, Bale 01987 Ogaden 3671989 Northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tigray, Wollo, Gondar, Harerge 01990 Eritrea, Tigray, Harerge 01991 Togray, Wello, Gondar, Ogaden, Harerghe, 01992 Eastern and Southern 01997 Somali state + Borena, Bale (Oromiya state) +South Ome zone 0
Ethiopian droughts, their location within the country, and the number of people killed during each drought since 1965.
Source: (World Health Organization and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 2006)
Drought years were identified by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Rainfall data was supplied by Dr Mike Hulme at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Crop data was from FAOSTAT.
Harv
est
Losses
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Rainfall anomaly index (high number is anomalous)
Har
vest
lo
sses
(H
igh
nu
mb
er i
s a
bad
har
vest
)
y = -0.0012x2 + 4.7031x - 4663.6
R2 = 0.8647
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Drought years were identified by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Rainfall data was supplied by Dr Mike Hulme at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Crop data was from FAOSTAT. P<0.01, R2 = 0.81, n=15
No institutional safety nets.
http://www.rootsweb.com/~irlker/images/glenevict.jpg
“Every benevolent attempt made to mitigate the effects of famine…serve but to enhance the evils resulting from overpopulation” – Sir Evelyn Baring (then England’s
finance minister referring to the 1876-79 famine in India
In the colonies…
In Ethiopia
• During crisis pro Soviet Junta called the Derge hid news of famine, only distributed food relief to political allies, and forcibly moved people from their homes.
Comenetz, J. & Caviedes, C. (2002) Climate variability, political crises, and historical population displacements in Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 4, 113-127.
People had few livelihood options.
In Ireland…
In the colonies…
• Transition from traditional economies to part of colonial empires meant poor people became labourers on large plantations. When crops failed, there were no alternatives.
– Davis, M. Late Victorian Famines. London: Verso. – Billig, M. (1992) The rationality of growing sugar in
Negros. Philippine Studies, 40, 156-7 – Polany, K. (1944) The great transformation, Boston,
Beacon Press.
In Ethiopia…
• In Wallo, agriculture employs over 90%. • Policy of “villagization” undermined
traditional communities.
– Unruh, J. (2001) The dilemma of African agrobiodiversity: Ethiopia and the role of food insecurity in conservation. Proceedings of the International Symposium Managing Biodiversity in Agricultural Ecosystems. Montreal, Canada, People, Land Management and Environmental Change (UNU/PLEC) The United Nations University.
– Meze-Hausken, E. (2000) Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5: 379-406.
Changes in agro-ecosystems.
http://it.stlawu.edu/~ptalag37/images/new/ireland/images/Untitled-22_jpg.jpg
Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?
Severity of Drought
Impa
ct o
f D
roug
ht
Are there other livelihoods or do people have access to capital?
Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?Harves
t Impact
s
Economic
Impacts
Health impacts
Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?
Severity of Drought
Impa
ct o
f D
roug
ht
Are there other livelihoods or do people have access to capital?
Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?
A vulnerable system…?
Harvest
Impacts
Economic
Impacts
Health impacts
Do institutions have the capacity to respond to a crisis?
Severity of Drought
Impa
ct o
f D
roug
ht
Are there other livelihoods / access to capital available?
Are agro-ecosystemsresilient?
A resilient system…?
Harvest
Impacts
Economic
Impacts
Health impacts
Agro-ecosystems
Fragile
Robust
Livelihoods
Few options
Many options
Institution capacity to respond to crisis
Low
High 1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
Movement in this direction indicates increasing vulnerability to environmental changes
Movement in this direction indicates increasing resilience to environmental changes
Evan FraserUniversity of Leeds
Copies of papers available at:http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/~evan/Personal/default.htm
Robustness of agro-ecosystem
High (less vulnerable) Low (more vulnerable)
Insti
tuti
on
al cap
acit
y
Hig
h (
less v
uln
era
ble
)Low
(m
ore
vu
lnera
ble
)
High (l
ess vuln
erable
)
Low (more
vulnera
ble)
Range of l
ivelih
ood optio
ns/acc
ess to
capita
l