Trutz Haase

ACCOUNTING FOR RURAL DEPRIVATION

Committee for Agriculture and Rural Development

Northern Ireland Assembly

2nd December 2014

Conceptual issues in the construction of Deprivation Indices

Distributions across Urban and Rural Areas in Northern Ireland

The effects of Spatial Aggregation

Designing Resource Allocation Models

QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THIS PRESENTATION

Relative Poverty

“People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally.”

(Government of Ireland, NAPS, 1997)

Relative Deprivation

“The fundamental implication of the term deprivation is of an absence – of essential or desirable attributes, possessions and opportunities which are considered no more than the minimum by that society.”

(Coombes et al., DoE – UK, 1995)

A COMPREHENSIVE DEFINITION OF POVERTY

Demographic Decline (predominantly rural)

population loss and the social and demographic effects of emigration (age dependency, low education of adult population)

Social Class Deprivation (applying in rural and urban areas)

social class composition, education, housing quality

Labour Market Deprivation (predominantly urban)

unemployment, lone parents, low skills base

THE UNDERLYING DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL DISADVANTAGE

Demographic Decline

Social Class Disadvantage

Labour Market Deprivation

Age Dependency Rate

Population Change

Low Qualification

High Qualification

Persons per Room

High Social Classes

Low Social Classes

Lone Parents

Male Unemployment

Female Unemployment

DIMENSIONALITY OF THE2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

POPULATION CHANGE 2006 - 2011

Population Change 2006-2011Haase & Pratschke 2014

15 and higher (5118)5 to 15 (4625)0 to 5 (3841)

-5 to 0 (3456)-5 and low er (5985)

NI: 4.1% RoI: 8.2%

AGE DEPENDENCY2011

Age DependencyHaase & Pratschke 2014

39 to 78 (4168)36 to 39 (4045)33 to 36 (4889)30 to 33 (3796)0 to 30 (6127)

NI: 34.1% RoI: 33.0%

LONE PARENTS2011

Lone ParentsHaase & Pratschke 2014

50 to 100 (2417)25 to 50 (6195)15 to 25 (5255)10 to 15 (3700)0 to 10 (5458)

NI: 29.3% RoI: 21.6%

LOW QUALIFICATIONS2011

Low QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014

55 to 100 (3074)45 to 55 (4146)35 to 45 (6118)25 to 35 (4846)0 to 25 (4841)

NI: 40.6% RoI: 36.8%

HIGH QUALIFICATIONS2011

High QualificationsHaase & Pratschke 2014

30 to 100 (5782)22.5 to 30 (4220)17.5 to 22.5 (4073)12.5 to 17.5 (4225)0 to 12.5 (4725)

NI: 23.7%RoI: 23.5%

LOW SOCIAL CLASS2011

Low ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014

40 to 80 (4409)30 to 40 (5433)25 to 30 (3886)20 to 25 (3884)0 to 20 (5413)

NI: 34.2% RoI: 27.0%

HIGH SOCIAL CLASS2011

High ClassHaase & Pratschke 2014

35 to 100 (5888)25 to 35 (6231)20 to 25 (4029)15 to 20 (3556)0 to 15 (3321)

NI: 31.1% RoI: 27.9%

MALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011

Male ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014

25 to 100 (5331)20 to 25 (3134)15 to 20 (4310)10 to 15 (5051)0 to 10 (5199)

NI: 10.7% RoI: 19.8%

FEMALE ILO UNEMPLOYMENT2011

Female ILO UnemploymentHaase & Pratschke 2014

20 to 100 (2620)15 to 20 (2973)10 to 15 (6192)5 to 10 (7198)0 to 5 (4042)

NI: 5.9% RoI: 12.5%

PERSONS PER ROOM2011

Average Number of Persons per RoomHaase & Pratschke 2014

0.55 to 11 (5041)0.5 to 0.55 (3941)0.45 to 0.5 (6953)0.4 to 0.45 (5273)0 to 0.4 (1817)

NI: 0.45 RoI: 0.50

2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORE

All-Island HP Deprivation ScoreHaase & Pratschke 2014

30 to 50 (38)20 to 30 (507)10 to 20 (3060)0 to 10 (7946)

-10 to 0 (7807)-20 to -10 (3117)-30 to -20 (535)-60 to -30 (15)

NI: 3.0 RoI: - 0.7

THREE MAJOR OBSERVATIONS

By 2011 Northern Ireland had become the more affluent of the two jurisdictions. This is of considerable interest, as the relative positions of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are reversed compared with our previous analysis.

The driving factor in this striking development has been the ability of Northern Ireland to maintain a comparatively high level of employment despite the unfavourable economic climate since roughly the mid-point of the inter-census period.

The third observation that emerges is that rural areas in the Republic of Ireland appear to be much more negatively affected by opportunity deprivation than equivalent areas in Northern Ireland.

COMPARISON OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION SCORES NORTH AND SOUTH

COMPARING THE ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX AND NI MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES – NI ONLY

N = 4,537 (SA)

URBAN RURAL CONTRAST – NI ONLYHP DEPRIVATION INDEX

Most Deprived Decile

6.8% 93.2%

URBAN RURAL CONTRAST – NI ONLYNIMDM

Most deprived Decile

2.6% 97.4%

URBAN AND RURAL SHARES IN MOST DEPRIVED DECILE OF AREAS IN NORTHERN IRELAND

Deprivation Index Rural% SA

Urban% SA

Rural% Wards

Urban% Wards

All-Island HP Deprivation Index 6.8 93.2 10.3 89.7

NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (SA – based)

2.6 97.4 5.2 94.8

NI Multiple Deprivation Measures (Ward –based)

- - 3.4 96.6

WARD-LEVEL DEPRIVATION BASED ON2011 ALL-ISLAND HP DEPRIVATION INDEX

WARD-LEVEL DEPRIVATION BASED ON2010 SA-LEVEL MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES

WARD-LEVEL DEPRIVATION BASED ON2010 WARD-LEVEL MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION MEASURES

BUILDING RESOURCE ALLOCATION SYSTEMS:

MODELLING POPULATION SHARES ACCORDING TO RELATIVE DEPRIVATION

T – TOTAL POPULATIONL – LOW (48.3%)M – MEDIUM (22.4%)H – HIGH ( 7.4%)

T : >5 STD (Total

Population)

L: 0 STD 48.3% Population

M: -1 STD 22.4%

H: -2 STD 7.4%

2011 ALL-ISLANDHP DEPRIVATION INDEX SCORES FORCOUNTIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT DISTRICTS

Ireland     Northern Ireland  

Local Authority Areas AI HP Score   Local Government Districts AI HP Score

Carlow -3.84   Antrim 6.51

Cavan -2.82   Ards 4.59

Clare -2.75   Armagh 4.11

Cork City -2.12   Ballymena 4.91

County Cork 1.95   Ballymoney 2.02

County Galway -0.82   Banbridge 6.01

County Limerick -1.35   Belfast 2.65

County Waterford -1.16   Carrickfergus 4.43

Donegal -6.06   Castlereagh 8.66

Dublin City 1.79   Coleraine 3.70

Dublin Fingal 4.11   Cookstown 3.27

Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown 8.50   Craigavon 3.81

Galway City 5.47   Derry -0.44

Kerry -2.55   Down 5.00

Kildare 1.22   Dungannon 4.70

Kilkenny -1.14   Fermanagh 3.85

Laois -1.61   Larne 3.72

Leitrim -1.26   Limavady -0.70

Limerick City -8.58   Lisburn 6.47

Longford -4.41   Magherafelt 5.37

Louth -3.23   Moyle 1.08

Mayo -5.13   Newry and Mourne 2.73

Meath -0.69   Newtownabbey 5.83

Monaghan -2.83   North Down 8.43

Offaly -4.04   Omagh 4.48

Roscommon -3.73   Strabane -2.75

Sligo 0.87      

South County Dublin -1.05      

Tipperary NR -4.60      

Tipperary SR -3.87      

Waterford City -4.40      

Westmeath -1.46      

Wexford -5.90      

Wicklow -1.33