trulia metro movers report - fall 2011

Trulia’s Metro Movers ReportFall 2011

What Does The Metro Movers Report Tell Us?

Trulia’s Metro Movers Report is the first report that starts with where homebuyers and renters are today, and then provides the inside scoop on where they want to live tomorrow and what it means for local housing demand.

2

What Is The Metro Movers Index?

3

The Metro Movers Index is the number of inbound property views by outsiders for each outbound property view by locals on Trulia.

Interpretation Key– Metro Mover Index > 1: more inbound than outbound searches– Metro Mover Index <1: more outbound than inbound searches– Metro Mover Index =1: equal number of inbound and outbound searches

Sample Metro Movers Index Calculation for Gotham City– # of inbound property views by outsiders: 200– # of outbound property views by locals: 100– Gotham City’s demand index: 200/100 = 2– Interpretation: 2X as many people might want to move to Gotham City in the

future than leave

National Housing Demand Trends

4

Falling Home Prices Draw House Hunters Away From Big Cities

Despite having more job opportunities, the higher cost of housing in big cities has made homes in nearby suburbs and neighboring smaller metros much more attractive to today’s homebuyers and renters.

• About 59% of properties viewed on Trulia.com are outside the house hunter’s current metropolitan area. – In fact, the top cross-metro searches are between neighboring metros (e.g.,

from Los Angeles to Riverside) – Still, 23% of all searches span more than 500 miles

• Of the cross-metro searches, 56% are for properties in metros with larger price declines during the housing bust and 63% are for properties in lower-density, more sprawling areas.

5

Top Cross-Metro Searches To Neighboring Metros

# Top 10 Cross-Metro Searches

1 Los Angeles Riverside-San Bernardino

2 New York Long Island

3 Orange County CA Los Angeles

4 Dallas Fort Worth

5 Los Angeles Orange County CA

6 Detroit Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI

7 New York Newark

8 Newark New York

9 Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills MI Detroit

10 Washington DC-Northern Virginia Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick

6

63% Of Cross-Metro Searches To Lower-Density, More Sprawling Areas

7

56% Of Cross-Metro Searches To Metros With Larger Price Drops

8

Falling Home Prices Fuel Demand In Hardest-Hit Markets

0.5< 2+more outbound searches more inbound searches

9

Map includes metros with 250,000+ occupied housing units

Housing Demand Strong In South And Southwest

# Strongest Housing Demand Metro Movers Index

1 North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL 6.03

2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.36

3 Charleston-North Charleston, SC 2.25

4 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 2.15

5 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 2.09

6 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL 1.99

7 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 1.97

8 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 1.92

9 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1.88

10 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1.87

More than twice as many “inbound” home searches to major metros in Florida and Inland California – where prices have fallen by half or more – by outsiders than “outbound” searches by locals.

10

Housing Demand Weak In Northeast And Midwest

# Weakest Housing Demand Metro Movers Index

1 Washington DC-Northern Virginia 0.37

2 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL 0.41

3 Boston-Quincy, MA 0.44

4 Salt Lake City, UT 0.44

5 Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN 0.45

6 St. Louis, MO-IL 0.46

7 New Haven-Milford, CT 0.47

8 Little Rock-North Little Rock, AR 0.47

9 Kansas City, MO-KS 0.47

10 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ 0.49

In the Washington DC and Chicago metro areas – where prices have not fallen as much as the hard-hit markets – both have an Metro Movers Index of under 0.5, which means there are twice as many “outbound” as there are “inbound” searches.

11

New Yorkers & Chicagoans To Boost Demand In Different Sunbelt Spots

More than a seasonal desire for warmer weather during winter months, nearly all the top longer-distance home searches from New York and Chicago at the end of the summer were to major metros in South and Southwest.

12

New Yorkers & Chicagoans To Boost Demand in Different Sunbelt Spots

# From New York, To:

1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

2 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL

3 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA

5West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL

6Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL

7 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

8 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL

9 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA

10 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC

# From Chicago, To:

1 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ


3 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ



6 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL

7 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX

8 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX

9 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV


Top Longer-Distance Searches

13

Regional Housing Demand Trends

14

Atlanta’s Recent Growth Will Shift To Nearby Southern Cities

• Metro Mover Index: 0.64• About 1.5x as many outbound searches than inbound searches to Atlanta• Most outbound searches to nearby lower-cost areas, which points to slowdown from last

decade’s high population growth.

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • 60% of outbound searches within 500 miles• 39% of inbound searches are within 500 miles

# Top Outbound from Atlanta:

1 Gainesville, GA

2 Jacksonville, FL

3 Athens-Clarke County, GA

4 Birmingham-Hoover, AL



7 Columbus, GA-AL



10 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC

# Top Inbound to Atlanta:


2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV


4 Philadelphia, PA


6 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA

7 Athens-Clarke County, GA


9 Newark-Union, NJ-PA

10 Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

15

House Hunters From Major U.S. Metros Looking To Move To Atlanta

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Atlanta

16

Atlantans Looking To Move To Nearby Southern Cities

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Atlanta

17

Few House Hunters Looking To Move To Chicago

• Metro Mover Index: 0.41• Nearly 2.5x as many outbound searches as inbound searches, meaning slow growth for Chicago • Chicagoans looking to move to (1) nearby cities or (2) Sunbelt States

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Very high share of property views in Chicago – 72% - are by Chicagoans• Strongest search flows are between Chicago and neighboring counties

# Top Outbound from Chicago:

1 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI

2 Gary, IN





7 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

8 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

9 Rockford, IL

10 Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA

# Top Inbound to Chicago:

1 Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI


3 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

4 St. Louis, MO-IL




8 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

9 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI

10 Springfield, IL

18

Chicago Eyed Mostly By House Hunters in Midwest And Northeast

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Chicago

19

Most Chicagoans Looking To Move To Sunbelt States

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Chicago

20

Houstonians Are Looking For Homes In Smaller Texas Metros

• Metro Mover Index: 0.62• Only 0.62 inbound searches for every outbound search, which points to slowdown after last

decade’s high population growth• Most home searches to other Texas metros, including Dallas, Austin and San Antonio

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • More than 4x as many searches to San Antonio than from San Antonio• Almost 2x as many searches to Austin than from Austin

# Top Outbound from Houston:

1 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

2 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX



5 Corpus Christi, TX

6 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

7 College Station-Bryan, TX



10 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX

# Top Inbound to Houston:


2 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX

3 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX


5 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX


7 Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX


9 Baton Rouge, LA


21

Mostly Fellow Texans Look To Move To Houston

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Houston

22

Most Houstonian House Hunters Prefer To Stay In Texas

Top Outbound Searches by Locals from Houston

23

Las Vegas Housing Troubles Attracting Demand From Near And Far

• Metro Mover Index: 1.88• Almost twice as many inbound search for every outbound search• Big price declines and high vacancies spur strong search interest from outsiders, which means

the metro’s population will rebound

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Although Southern Californians makes up most of the home searches in Vegas, 35% came from

house hunters more than 500 miles away

# Top Outbound from Las Vegas:



3 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA

4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

5 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA

6 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA


8 Reno-Sparks, NV


10 Pahrump, NV

# Top Inbound to Las Vegas



3 Honolulu, HI






9 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA


24

House Hunters Across The Country Eye Las Vegas Real Estate

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Las Vegas

25

Most house hunters looking to leave Las Vegas for nearby metros

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Las Vegas

26

LA House Hunters Search In Cheaper Nearby Metros

• Metro Mover Index: 0.62• Only 0.62 inbound searches for every outbound search• Housing market already tight with low vacancies, which cuts down on inbound searches

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Despite large price drops in LA, many Angelenos look for even bigger real estate discounts in

nearby metros • Almost half of all inbound searches come from more than 500 miles away, while half of outbound

searches to nearby Southern California Metros.

# Top Outbound from LA:



3 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA




7 Bakersfield-Delano, CA



10 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA

# Top Inbound to LA







7 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA




27

Southern Californian House Hunters Drawn To LA

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Los Angeles

28

Most Angeleno House Hunters Stay Close To LA

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Los Angeles

29

Miami Real Estate Demand Comes From Far Away

• Metro Mover Index: 0.82• Only 0.82 inbound searches for every outbound search – lower than most of Florida, but better

than most larger metros• Most outbound searches from Miami are to lower-density Florida metros with even larger price

drops, which points to slowdown after last decade’s high population growth

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Two-thirds of inbound searches are from people more than 500 miles away – very high share• Less than 30% of outbound searches are to homes more than 500 miles away.

# Top Outbound from Miami:

1 Fort Lauderdale, FL

2 West Palm Beach, FL

3 Port St. Lucie, FL




7 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL



10 Key West, FL

# Top Inbound to Miami

1 Fort Lauderdale, FL


3 West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL




7 Philadelphia, PA




30

Miami Eyed By House Hunters In Northeast And Midwest

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Miami

31

Miamian House Hunters Tend To Say Within Florida

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Miami

32

New York Real Estate Activity Is In And Around New York

• Metro Mover Index: 0.49• Only half as many inbound searches as outbound searches• Most home searches in New York are made by New Yorkers for New York homes• New York remains slow-growing, with many New Yorkers looking to neighboring, cheaper and

less-dense metro areas

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Only 12% of home searches in New York are made by house hunters more than 500 miles away

# Top Outbound from NYC:

1 Nassau-Suffolk, NY


3 Edison-New Brunswick, NJ

4 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT

5 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY

6 Philadelphia, PA


8 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL



# Top Inbound to NYC:


2 Nassau-Suffolk, NY

3 Edison-New Brunswick, NJ


5 Philadelphia, PA


7 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT


9 Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY


33

NYC Eyed By Many, Especially House Hunters In Nearby Metros

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to New York

34

New Yorkers Look To Stay Close To New York

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to New York

35

San Franciscans House Hunt Across Northern California

• Metro Mover Index: 0.77• Only 0.77 of inbound searches for every outbound search, which is higher than the Oakland or

San Jose metro area

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Nine out of the top 10 outbound searches are to other California metros• High costs and relatively tight market don’t deter lookers from afar, with expensive cities

(e.g., LA, NYC, DC) on the top inbound list

# Top Outbound from SF:


2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA


4 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA


6 Visalia-Porterville, CA

7 Stockton, CA


9 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA


# Top Inbound to SF:


2 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA





7 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA




36

House Hunters From Across America Eye SF Real Estate

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to San Francisco

37

Most San Franciscans Prefer To Stay In Northern California

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to San Francisco

38

Seattle Real Estate Is A National Market

• Metro Mover Index: 0.59• Only 0.59 of inbound searches for every outbound search

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • About 82% of outbound searches are more than 500 miles away with most top destinations in

the Sunbelt state, while the top three inbound searches are within the Pacific Northwest• Opposite of typical large-city pattern of long-distance inbound and short-distance outbound

searches

# Top Outbound from Seattle:




4 Tacoma, WA







# Top Inbound to Seattle:

1 Bremerton-Silverdale, WA

2 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

3 Tacoma, WA







10 Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA

39

Seattle Draws House Hunters From Across The Country

Top Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Seattle

40

Seattlites Looking To Move Far, Far Away

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Seattle

41

DC House Hunters Moving Out, But Stay In Mid-Atlantic And South

• Metro Mover Index: 0.37• More than 2.5x as many outbound searches as inbound searches despite recent growth in

jobs and home prices, the Washington DC real estate market may slow down

• Inbound vs. Outbound: • Most outbound and inbound home searches are regional – only a third of the inbound searches

to and outbound searches from DC are more than 500 miles away

# Top Outbound from DC:

1 Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD

2 Baltimore-Towson, MD


4 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC


6 Richmond, VA

7 Philadelphia, PA




# Top Inbound to DC:

1 Baltimore-Towson, MD

2 Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD


4 Richmond, VA

5 Philadelphia, PA

6 Culpeper, VA

7 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC




42

Mostly Locals Looking To Move Closer To The Capital

Inbound Searches by Outsiders to Washington DC

43

Most DC House Hunter Eye Homes Along The Atlantic

Top Outbound Searches by Locals to Washington DC

44

Methodology

Trulia’s Metro Movers Report is a forward-looking indicator of where people are today and where they want to live tomorrow that’s based on property searches on Trulia.com. The Fall 2011 report examines all the property searches between July 1, 2011 and September 30, 2011.

Trulia defines a metropolitan area’s Metro Movers Index as the number of inbound property views by outsiders for each outbound property view by locals, based on almost 100 million monthly property views on Trulia.com, while adjusting for total views and site coverage. All U.S. metropolitan areas were included in this study.

Sample Metro Movers Index Calculation for Gotham City– # of inbound property views by outsiders: 200– # of outbound property views by locals: 100– Gotham City’s demand index: 200/100 = 2– Interpretation: 2X as many people might want to move to Gotham City in the

future than leave45

About Trulia

Trulia is the fastest growing online real estate resource, empowering buyers, seller and renters with smarter tools to help them find the right home. Trulia gives you the inside scoop to find you find the best place to live. Our smart and personalized real estate search experience brings together vital local information, community insights, market data and national listings all in one place. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco and is backed by Accel Partners and Sequoia Capital.

To learn more, email us at [email protected]

46

mailto:[email protected]