tropical timber market trends - unece sq & up keruing sq & up african mahogany lm-c...
TRANSCRIPT
EXPORT TRENDS – PRIMARY TROPICAL
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Vol
ume
(100
0 m
3 - R
WE
)
TROPICAL ROUNDWOOD EXPORT TRENDS
Malaysia
Papua New Guinea
Gabon
Indonesia0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
INDONESIA / CHINA LOG TRADE
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 )
Indonesia Exports - China Indonesia Exports - Hong Kong China Imports
MALAYSIA / CHINA LOG TRADE
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 )
Malaysia Exports - China Malaysia Exports - Hong Kong China Imports
TROPICAL LOG FOB PRICE TRENDS
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2005 2006
Pric
e In
dex
(Jan
199
7=10
0)
Meranti SQ & Up Keruing SQ & Up African Maho gany LM-C
Wawa/Obeche/Ayo us LM-C Sape le LM-C Iro ko LM-C
EXCHANGE RATES VS. THE US DOLLAR
Euro
British Pound
Yen
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-
04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-
05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Exch
ange
Rat
e In
dex
(Jan
200
4 =
100)
CAMEROON LOG PRICE TREND
Sapelli/Sapele (Entandrophragma cylindricum) 80 cm plusUK Market
200
250
300
350
400
12/03 2/04 4/04 6/04 8/04 10/0412/04 2/05 4/05 6/05 8/05 10/0512/05 2/06 4/06 6/06 8/06
US dollar
Euro
TROPICAL SAWNWOOD EXPORT TRENDS
Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil
Indonesia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
INDONESIA / CHINA SAWNWOOD TRADE
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 )
Indonesia Exports - China Indonesia Exports - Hong KongChina Imports Hong-Kong Imports
MALAYSIA / CHINA SAWNWOOD TRADE
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Vol
ume
(100
0 m
3 )
Malaysia Exports - China Malaysia Exports - Hong KongChina Imports Hong-Kong Imports
TROPICAL SAWNWOOD FOB PRICE TRENDS
100
110
120
130
140
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2005 2006
Pric
e In
dex
(Jan
199
7=10
0)
Meranti Jatoba/Courbaril Sapele Iroko Khaya
TROPICAL PLYWOOD EXPORT TRENDS
Indonesia (COMTRADE)
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 )
Malaysia Indonesia
DATA DISCREPANCY BETWEEN SOURCESINDONESIA TROPICAL EXPORTS
45247
71789
4009
3127
6
35
1
1
108
7347
85
85
2
63
0
0
2004***
282696807880699202GTA (adjusted)
5416910106694970168254GTA
221509255216003COM
3411394644004686JQ
Ply
2148GTA (adjusted)
1322031551307GTA
1445COM
1445JQ
Veneer
351205145GTA (adjusted)
9882716410354329269GTA
N/A266475217COM
14266476225JQ
Sawn
0932GTA (adjusted)
134317462871GTA
N/A0634COM
01635JQ
Logs
2005***2003**2002*2001*
*(source: JQ04) **(source: JQ05) *** (source: JQ06) Partial data
ITTO MEMBERS WITH NO 2004 DATA IN COMTRADE AS OF SEPTEMBER 2006
NepalHondurasSurinameTrinidad & Tobago
MyanmarPNGVanuatu
CARCongo, Dem.Rep. of
Congo, Rep. ofCôte d’IvoireLiberiaNigeria
CONSUMERSLATIN AMERICA
ASIAPACIFIC
AFRICA
TROPICAL PLYWOOD EXPORT TRENDS
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 )
Brazil China
TROPICAL PLYWOOD FOB PRICE TRENDS
75
85
95
105
115
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2005 2006
Pric
e In
dex
(Jan
199
7=10
0)
Indonesian 2.7mm Indonesian 6mm Brazilian Virola 5.2mmBrazilian Pine 9mm Malaysian 2.7mm Malaysian 9mm
GDP, YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGECONSUMER COUNTRIES
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006*
U.S.A. Euro Area Japan China
MAJOR IMPORTER TRENDS - PRIMARY TROPICAL
China
EU
Japan
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volu
me
(100
0 m
3 - R
WE)
JAPAN HOUSING STARTS AND PROJECTIONS (*)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1956
-1960
1961
-1965
1966
-1970
1971
-1975
1976
-1980
1981
-1985
1986
-1990
1991
-1995
1996
-2000
2001
-2005
2006
-2010
*20
11-20
15*
2016
-2020
*
Uni
ts (a
nnua
l ave
rage
)
GDP, YEAR ON YEAR % CHANGEPRODUCER COUNTRIES
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* 2007*
Latin America Africa Asia Pacific
PRODUCER TROPICAL TIMBER IMPORTS
Asia Pacific
Africa
Latin America
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Vol
ume
(100
0 m
3 - RW
E)
ITTO CONSUMER IMPORTS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Valu
e (B
illio
n US
D)
Secondary
Primary
SPWP Exports
• 4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand) account for > 80% tropical exports
• same countries account for > 90% of $5 billion exports of tropical pulp, paper, reconstituted panels
• most of this $15 billion + export industrybased on plantations, incl. non-tropical conifers in Brazil
CURRENT ISSUES
• shift to plantations
• ecosystem services, carbon, etc.
• market access (certification, legality, PPPs, subsidies, etc.)
• new ITTA