tropical cyclone operations & research mary m. glackin deputy under secretary for oceans &...
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Track and Intensity forecasts 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year Storm Surge Rainfall / Flooding Storm Structure Sea State Observations Success and Challenges Collaborative Partnerships Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 3 UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction) Storm Surge/FloodingTRANSCRIPT
Tropical Cyclone
Operations&
ResearchMary M. Glackin
Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)
March 3, 2008
Priorities for the Future
OutlineSuccesses and Challenges
Collaborative Partnerships are vital Data Collection Modeling Transition of Research to Operations
Outreach and Education
Community Hazard Resiliency
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 2
Track and Intensity forecasts 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average
since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year
Storm Surge
Rainfall / Flooding
Storm Structure
Sea State
Observations
Success and ChallengesCollaborative Partnerships
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 3UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction)
Storm Surge/Flooding
Collaborative Partnerships
Data CollectionEntire observations system depends on partnerships
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR’s) being transitioned from research to operations
UAS partnerships (NASA, DOE)
Ocean Surface Vector Winds
In Situ Observations
COSMIC
Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS)
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 4
SFMR or “SMURF”
Altair
Collaborative Partnerships
Modeling and Prediction
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 5
Hurricane Katrina HWRF Model—8/2005
Navy COAMPS Model of Significant Wave Heights in Western Pacific
GFDL Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model
HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane
Prediction System Operational in 2007; GFDL will run in
parallel
Navy GFDN & COAMPS Tropical Cyclone Systems
Multi-Model Ensembles /Model Consensus
Important to tropical cyclone forecast and warning operations
NUOPC
Collaborative Partnerships
Transition of Research to OperationsJoint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)
Modeling NCEP / EMC Developmental Testbed Center Navy/FNMOC
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 6
Joint Hurricane Testbed Center
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 7
Map of StormReady Communities
Outreach and Education
StormReady
NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Multi-Agency collaboration
including Department of Education Department of Homeland
Security Department of Commerce/NOAA
Work with FEMA, States and Local Agencies, NGOs, Academia, Private Companies
Media
Hurricane Liaison Team
Seasonal Forecasts and PreparednessMap of NWR Coverage
Collaborative Partnerships
Hazard Resiliency For Coastal Communities
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 8
“High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure” National Science Board report
Figure: County Population Change
(1970 – 2000) in 1000’s of people
Red: coastal counties Green: non-coastal
counties
Impact of Tropical Systems on Ecosystems
Partnership needed to meet resource demands
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 10
Questions?
Tropical Cyclone
Operations&
ResearchMary M. Glackin
Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC)
March 3, 2008
Priorities for the Future
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 12
Collaborative Partnerships
Response
Hurricane Liaison Team
Media Pool
HLT (FEMA/NOAA) discussing tidal surge heights for Hurricane Lili (2002)NHC Meteorologist Updating HLT
Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 13
Collaborative Partnerships
Recovery
Land falling tropical cyclones will occur again
Assistance from Federal Agencies will be critical to recovery efforts
Status of Transportation-related Recovery
Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 14
The Path AheadWhat have we learned?
Multiple Hurricane Proposals1. Partnerships and coordination 2. Operational requirements 3. Advancements in operational
numerical weather prediction models
4. Advanced observations and data assimilation
5. An efficient transfer of research to operations plan
6. Critical Mass is crucialPath and Intensity Track of Hurricane Katrina
(2005)
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 15
The Path AheadInteragency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead
Excellent Plan Comprehensive Strategy Key Areas Relevant R&D
Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research 16
Collaborative Partnerships
Global Earth Observation System of Systems
A distributed system of systems Improves coordination of
strategies and observation systems
Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks
Identifies gaps in our global capacity
Facilitates exchange of data and information
Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues