trimegah cf 20151111 klbf a well run company but 2016 will remain tough 2

8/19/2019 Trimegah Cf 20151111 Klbf a Well Run Company but 2016 Will Remain Tough 2

1/10

COMPANY FOCUS PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Kalbe FarmaA well run company but 2016 will remain tough Patricia Gabriela

!atricia.gabriela"trimegah.com#

A great company but expect slow growth next year

We expect EPS growth of only ! in 2016F an" 1#! in 201$F a% we

expect ethical bu%ine%% &2'! of 2016F total re(enue) to remain un"er

pre%%ure next year gi(en more competition from generic un"er *P+S

%cheme, with ethical re(enue to grow by only 2! in 2016F an" ethical

gro%% margin to fall to #-! &from #.! in 201#F)/ i(en low earning%

growth expectation an" it% '1x 2016F PE, we initiate K*F with a Sell/

ote that our 201631$F earning% are 11/#31.! lower than con%en%u%/

Risk in margin downside

4$0! of K*F5% 7S are "enominate" in 8S9, hence :9; "epreciationaffect% K*F profitability/ We note that if :9; "epreciate% by 10!, con<

%oli"ate" gro%% margin will be "own by 2e%

an" better pro"uct mix coul" help with gro%% margin, but we foreca%t

K*F to ha(e lower gro%% margin by 20bp% in 201#F an" remain% flat in

2016F e(en with ASP hi>e%/ We al%o expect K*F to ha(e lower net

margin in 201# until cataly%t exi%t%/

Valuation: SELL with ! of Rp "#$%%

We recommen" K*F at ;p 1,200 u%ing 9F metho" &WA of 1'!,@ of #!)/ 7ur @P implie% 2016


2/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 2

7ing in pharma industry

K*F i% the lea"er of highly fragmente" pharmaceutical% in"u%try in :n"one%ia with 41'! mar>et %hare/ @o fur<ther %upport it% bu%ine%%, K*F %ign% a Coint (enture with enexine, a pharma company from South Korea/ K*F

will ha(e 60! %toc> of the new Coine" company name" P@ Kalbeet/ =oreo(er, K*F i% in mi" of bio%imilar factory con<

%truction planne" to %tart commencing in 201-F/ apex for the "e(elopment will be from internal ca%h, amount<

e" 8SD '0et po%ition/ 8p till .=1#,

"i%tribution an" logi%tic% contribute% highe%t towar"% re(enue at '0!, nutritional% at 2-!, pre%cription pharma

at 2!, an" con%umer health at 1-!/

+igure $5 0arket share in prescription pharmaceuticals

Source* Com!a+,

+igure "5 0arket share in pharma industry

Source* Com!a+,

"(8

,8

*8

)8

)8

,98

Kalbe Farma

a

b

c

"

7ther% &foreign)

"*8

98

,8

)8

)8

)8(8

*,8

Kalbe Farma

a

b

c

"

e

f

7ther% &foreign)

=anagement %tate" that the pro"uct recall proce%% ha% been complete"/ 9ue to the inci"ent, company reuire"

to %top the pro"uction of that particular line/ ?ence, it affecte" 4#! of top line growth/


3/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS '

+igure (5 0arket share in .

Source* Com!a+,

;8

98

-8

-8

,8

)8(8(8

*$8

Kalbe Farmaa

b

c

"

e

f

g

7ther% &foreign)

Source* Com!a+,

+igure )5 7Latoni> A* 1-/1!

Energy "rin> Extra +o%% 2$/0!

Source* Com!a+,

+igure *5 7L


4/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS

Exposure towards /S': cause of falling stock price

Bt", K*F5% %toc> price ha% "ecline" 2#/1! &(% +: at G1/-!)/ A% 4$0! of K*F5% 7S are "enominate" in8S9 &it% raw material are importe"), it% %toc> price i% affecte" by :9;38S9 exchange rate/ For raw material pur<

cha%e%, K*F u%e% %pot price/ :n .=1#, K*F re%er(e% 8SD 11bn for purcha%ing purpo%e an" the amount i% %tat<

e" to be %ufficient/

We note that while :9; i% rather con%tant thi% wee>, K*F %toc> performance continue to "ecline/ We (iew that it

i% the effect of K*F .=1# re%ult, which recor"e" a wea> growth compare" to peer%/

+igure ,5 7L.? stock performance

Source* TM esearch

+igure 5 7L


5/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS #

S program: helps 4olume but not margin

@hrough *P+S program, "eman" for generic "rug% increa%e"/ :n .=1#, generic "rug% re(enue increa%e" 1#! BoBwhile licen%e" an" bran"e" pro"uct% grew #! an" G#! BoB/

Procurement %y%tem for *P+S program i% "one through e of higher contribution by con%umer health an" nutritional% which gi(e% a better profitability/ ?owe(er, we

expect K*F to %uffer gro%% margin compre%%ion in 201#F by 20bp% a% pre%%ure from exchange rate continue%

an" no ASP hi>e%/

+igure 95 7L


6/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS 6

+inancials

+igure "%5 ?ncome statement

Source* TM esearch

?ncome estimate 2Rp bn3 $%"( $%") $%"*+ $%",+ $%"+

Sales: ",#%%$ "#(,; "#$ "9#;"9 $"#(;)

Pre%cription pharmaceutical ',-6. ,'2. ,22 ,'2$ ,-##

on%umer health 2,#0# 2,.2 ',1$- ',#6. ,0-'

utritional% ',$.2 ,#-1 ,..' #,60' 6,$6#

9i%tribution an" pac>aging #,-'6 #,#'# #,'1' #,20 #,6.1

.@S: 29#($(3 29#9;(3 2;#"")3 2;#"93 2"%#;%93

Pre%cription pharmaceutical &1,#1-) &1,6-#) &1,$2$) &1,-0#) &2,0#0)

on%umer health &1,16.) &1,2..) &1,#2) &1,62) &1,-$-)

utritional% &1,#0) &2,0$0) &2,2$) &2,#10) &',0'1)

9i%tribution an" pac>aging &,1'1) &',-'.) &',6--) &',$61) &',..)

@ross profit #,; 9#), 9#,"( ;#$%% "%#)9,

E


7/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS $

K*F5% gro%% margin in 201#F will fall a% there wa% no ASP hi>e% impo%e" an" pre%%ure from :9; "epreciation/

ote that company "oe% not increa%e it% ASP per 201#F except con%umer health to anticipate further wea> pur<

cha%ing power/ We expect K*F to %uffer net margin compre%%ion in 201#


8/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS -

Valuation

We reing capital') &6$2) &$$-) &.0') &1,1'6) &1,'2.) &1,##$) &1,-2$) &2,1#)

9epreciation #$ #1. #$6 60 $11 $$- -#1 .16 .-6

FFF &;p bn) 1,211 1,'2$ 1,$$- 2,0. 2,$' ','2# ,0.6 #,'' 6,.$

9i%counte" FFF 1,211 1,1$2 1,'-$ 1,12 1,#0# 1,$-- 1,.# 2,2'$ 2,0$

@erminal (alue 100,.'2

P of terminal

(alue'',02$

@otal company

(alue#0,6$6

et "ebt &2,2'.)

A #2,.1

A 3 %hare "#"$;

$%$,+

1,2.

10,-6'

&1,#06)

&2,#21)

1,061

$,-.$

2,#-


9/10

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com COMPANY FOCUS .

?ncome Statement 2Rpbn3

&ear end 'ec $%"( $%") $%"*+ $%",+ $%"+

;e(enue 16,002 1$,'6. 1$,$2$ 1-,.1- 21,'.;e(enue rowth 1$/'! -/#! 2/1! 6/$! 1'/1!

ro%% Profit $,6$. -,$6 -,61' .,200 10,-6

7pr/ Profit 2,##1 2,$#2 2,60 2,$'$ ',12

E*:@9A 2,$'6 2,..- 2,..' ',10 ',#-1

E*:@9A rowth &!) 1#/! ./6! ing ap &1,1$$) 6 - &26$) ')

7ther% &6) $2 < < <

FJ% from opr% .2$ 2,'16 2,'2. 2,1-' 2,2#-

apex &.$1) &-21) &.00) &1,000) &1,0$$)

7ther% 10 1 #. 66 $0

F5% from in(e%ting &-6$) &6$$) &-1) &.') &1,00$)

9i(i"en" &.01) &-10) &-6) &.21) &1,0##)

7ther% 2-$ &'6-) 100 &'#) &'#)

F5% from financing &61') &1,1$$) &$6) &.#6) &1,0.0)

et ca%h flow #) 62 $1 2.' 161

a%h at *oB 1,-2. 1,'$1 1,$ 2,21# 2,#0-

a%h at EoB 1,'$1 1,-' 2,21# 2,#0- 2,6$0

Free a%hflow &10) 1,#' 1,6- 1,21$ 1,211

7ey Ratio Analysis

&ear end 'ec $%"( $%") $%"*+ $%",+ $%"+

!rofitability

ro%% =argin &!) -/0! -/-! -/6! -/6! ./0!

7pr =argin &!) 1#/.! 1#/-! 1/.! 1/#! 1/6!

E*:@9A =argin &!) 1$/1! 1$/'! 16/.! 16/6! 16/$!

ore et =argin &!) 12/0! 11/.! 11/1! 10/-! 11/0!

;7AE &!) 2#/'! 2'/6! 1./-! 1-/6! 1./2!

;7AA &!) 1-/#! 1$/! 1#/'! 1/$! 1#/'!

Stability

urrent ratio &x) 2/- '/ '/ '/# '/6

et 9ebt to Euity &x) &0/1) &0/2) &0/2) &0/2) &0/2)

et 9ebt to E*:@9A &x) &0/') &0/#) &0/6) &0/$) &0/6)

:ntere%t o(erage &x) -./1 #2/. $#/1 $$/- --/-

Efficiency

A3P &"ay%) #2 6' 62 60 #$

A3; &"ay%) - #0 #0 - $

:n(entory &"ay%) 11' 126 12# 122 11.

?nterim Result 2Rpbn3

(C") )C") "C"* $C"* (C"*

Sale% ,'$. ,610 ,2$ ,$' ,0-

ro%% Profit 2,11. 2,'# 2,102 2,1.6 2,11'

E*:@9A $2. -2. $#$ $$6 66$

7pr/ Profit 66$ $6. 6-2 $0 #.'

et profit #0$ #.- #'$ #$ #0

ore profit . #$- #2. #' '6

ro%% =argin% &!) -/! #0/.! ./#! ./1! $/.!

E*:@9A =argin% &!) 16/$! 1-/0! 1$/-! 1$/'! 1#/1!

7pr =argin% &!) 1#/2! 16/$! 16/1! 1#/$! 1'/#!

et =argin% &!) 11/6! 1'/0! 12/$! 12/2! 10/2!

ore =argin% &!) 11/'! 12/#! 12/! 11/.! ./.!

.apital 6istory

'ate

(%->ul-;" ?!DRp#9%%

%9-ct-"$ Stock split ":*

"(-'ec-"( 'ecrease in issued and

fully paid shares


10/10

! rimegah Securities bk

e"ung Artha raha 1-th Floor

+l/ +en"/ Su"irman Ka(/ #2

trimegah cf 20151111 klbf a well run company but 2016 will remain tough 2

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