triennial plan revision 2009 - 2011 -...

Triennial Plan Revision 2009 - 2011

Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District

24580 Silver Cloud Court

Monterey, CA 93940

(831) 647-9411

www.montereybaycleanair.org

January 2013 FINAL

Adopted by District Board of Directors on April 17, 2013

Triennial Plan Revision

Page 1 April 17, 2013

Stationary Sources

22%

Area-Wide Sources

9%

Mobile Sources

69%

NOx Emission Inventory (Year 2010, 56 tons per day)

Executive Summary The Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District (District) is one of 35 air districts established to protect air quality in California. Its jurisdiction is the North Central Coast Air Basin (NCCAB), comprised of Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito counties. In 1988, the State Legislature adopted the California Clean Air Act (CCAA), which required each nonattainment district in the State to adopt a plan showing how the State Ambient Air Quality Standard (AAQS) for ozone would be met in their area of jurisdiction.

The CCAA (Health & Safety Code §§ 40910 et seq.) required initial preparation of an Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) in 1991, with subsequent updates every three years. This is the sixth update to the 1991 AQMP. There have been many changes both in terms of air quality and the regulatory setting since the initial AQMP in 1991. This report is an update to elements included in the 2008 AQMP based on a review of the time period 2009-2011 and shows that the region continues to make progress toward meeting the state ozone standard.

The District’s focus continues to be on achieving the 8-hour component of the ozone standard since the region has attained the 1-hour standard. The primary elements from the 2008 AQMP updated in this revision include the air quality trends analysis, emission inventory, and mobile source programs. The District has jurisdiction over stationary emission sources which continue to be the smallest portion of both the reactive organic gas (ROG) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions inventories (see below). Area-wide sources are the main contributor to ROG emissions in the region. The recent changes that contributed to reducing estimated ROG emissions compared to the 2008 AQMP include lower vehicle miles traveled and aligning Rule 426 Architectural Coatings to the ARB’s recommendations. Cleaner exhaust standards for mobile sources continue to be an important factor in reducing regional ROG and NOx emissions over the lifetime of the AQMP series.

Mobile sources emissions continue to dominate the District’s NOx emissions inventory. As found in historical ozone transport studies, ozone concentrations at the Pinnacles National Park monitor are significantly impacted by Bay Area NOx emissions. In addition, the region is “NOx sensitive,” meaning that ozone formation due to local emissions is more limited by the availability of NOx as opposed to the availability of ROGs. The recent changes that contributed to reducing estimated NOx emissions compared to the 2008 AQMP include lower vehicle miles traveled.

Stationary Sources

15%

Area-Wide Sources

49%

Mobile Sources

36%

ROG Emission Inventory (Year 2010, 64 tons per day)



The 2008 AQMP documented that the air basin continued to attain the 1-hour standard and recommended adoption of the following five control measures to make progress towards achieving the 8-hour standard:

• A1 - Solvent Cleaning Operations

• A2 - Degreasing Operations

• A3 - Spray Booths - Miscellaneous Coatings and Cleanup Solvents

• A4 - Adhesives and Sealants

• A5 - Natural Gas-Fired Fan-Type Central Furnaces and Residential Water Heaters

These measures were primarily aimed at reducing ROG emissions while only measure A5 would result in reducing NOx emissions. However, reducing NOx emissions is crucial for reducing ozone formation and the primary source of NOx emissions are mobile sources. Another contributing factor to ozone concentrations are emissions transported from the San Francisco Bay Area which can cause an increase in the number of ozone exceedance days. Also, during the time period reviewed, one large stationary source, Cemex, shutdown. Based on monitoring data for 2009-2011, there were fewer exceedance days in the time period 2009-2011 compared to 2006-2008. Therefore, the control measures presented in the 2008 AQMP have not been implemented as the District determined progress was continuing to be made toward attaining the 8-hour ozone standard during the three-year period reviewed (2009-2011).

Monitoring Data

Mobile Source Grant Programs

Rule Revisions Ozone Transport

Stationary and Area Sources

Components of

Progress Toward

Achieving 8-hour Standard



Contents Executive Summary ......................................................... 1

Acronym List ................................................................... 4

1. Introduction ................................................ 6

2. Triennial Report Requirements ................... 6

3. Ambient Air Quality ..................................... 7

4. Emission Inventory Trends ........................ 18

5. Ozone Transport ....................................... 21

6. Control Measures ...................................... 23

7. Mobile Source Programs ........................... 24

8. Public Outreach ......................................... 26

9. Emission Reduction Strategy..................... 27

References .................................................................... 28

Appendix A – AMBAG Technical Memorandum on Regional

Travel Demand Model Forecasting Methodology

Appendix B – On-Road Motor Vehicle Emissions



Acronym List AAQS Ambient Air Quality Standard AB32 Assembly Bill 32 AB923 Assembly Bill 923 AB2766 Assembly Bill 2766 AMBAG Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments APCD Air Pollution Control District APCO Air Pollution Control Officer AQMP Air Quality Management Plan ARB California Air Resources Board CAAQS California Ambient Air Quality Standards CAPCOA California Air Pollution Control Officers Association CCAA California Clean Air Act of 1988 CASTNET Federal Clean Air Status and Trends Network CEPAM California Emissions Projection Analysis Model CO Carbon Monoxide CO2 Carbon Dioxide DMV Department of Motor Vehicles DOF California Department of Finance EIC Emission Inventory Category EMFAC Emission Factor Estimation Model (On-Road Motor Vehicles) EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency EPDC Expected Peak Day Concentration ERC Emission Reduction Credit H&SC Health & Safety Code HDT Heavy Duty Truck HDV Heavy Duty Vehicle LDT Light Duty Truck LDV Light Duty Vehicle LESBP Lower Emission School Bus Program MBUAPCD Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District MDT Medium Duty Truck MDV Medium Duty Vehicle MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization MTP Metropolitan Transportation Plan MTIP Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program

g Microgram

g/m3 Micrograms Per Cubic Meter NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NCCAB North Central Coast Air Basin NESHAPS National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants NMHC Non-Methane Hydrocarbons NO Nitric Oxide NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide NOx Oxides of Nitrogen O3 Ozone OFFROAD Off-road Emission Estimation Model PEV Plug-in Electric Vehicle



PM Particulate Matter PM10 Particulate Matter Less Than 10 Microns in Diameter ppb Parts Per Billion ppm Parts Per Million ROG Reactive Organic Gases RTDM Regional Travel Demand Model RTP Regional Transportation Plan SFBAAB San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin SO2 Sulfur Dioxide SOx Oxides of Sulfur TCM Transportation Control Measure TPD Tons Per Day TPY Tons Per Year VMT Vehicle Miles Travelled



1. Introduction The California Clean Air Act (CCAA) requires attainment of state ambient air quality standards by the earliest practicable date. For air districts in violation of the state ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, or nitrogen dioxide standards, attainment plans were required by July 1991. The Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District (District) was required to develop an attainment plan to address ozone violations. The CCAA requires the District to periodically prepare and submit a report to the Air Resources Board (ARB) that assesses its progress toward attainment of the state ambient air quality standards [Health and Safety Code §40924]. The 1991 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) was the first plan prepared in response to the CCAA that established specific planning requirements to meet the 1-hour ozone standard. In 2006, the ARB revised the State AAQS and made it considerably more stringent by adding an 8-hour average to the standard, which previously only included a 1-hour average. Both components of the standard must now be met before the ARB can designate that an area has attained the standard. This report is the sixth update to the 1991 AQMP with the five plans completed in 1994, 1997, 2000, 2004, and 2008, respectively.

This report only addresses attainment of the State ozone standard and is an assessment and update to the 2008 AQMP. In 2012, EPA designated the NCCAB as attainment of the current national 8-hour ozone standard of 0.075 ppm.

2. Triennial Report Requirements The 2012 Triennial Plan documents the District’s progress toward attaining the state ozone standard and is the District’s review and update to the 2008 AQMP. In preparing this report, the District reviewed the following areas required by §40924 and §40925 of the Health and Safety Code:

Extent of air quality improvement based upon ambient measurements and air quality indicators.

Expected and revised reductions for each measure scheduled for adoption.

Incorporate new data or projections into the attainment plan, including, but not limited to population-related, industry-related, and vehicle-related emissions growth.

Compare the new data to the rate of emission reductions and growth projected in the previous triennial plan revision.

The 2012 AQMP update builds on information developed in past AQMPs. Consequently, some sections of the 2008 AQMP are incorporated by reference for those elements that have not been updated. Table 2-1 summarizes the required elements contained in the 2008 AQMP and identifies the elements updated in this report.



Table 2-1

Triennial Report: 2008 AQMP Elements Reviewed

Elements Reviewed Triennial Revision Section and/or 2008 AQMP Reference

Ambient Ozone

Concentrations Triennial Revision: Section 3

Population Trends Triennial Revision: Section 3

2008 AQMP: Section 1 and 4

Health and Environmental

Effects of Ozone 2008 AQMP: Section 3

Air Quality Indicators

Triennial Revision: Section 3

2008 AQMP: Section 2.4.3

Note: Population and area exposure indicators are no longer provided by ARB.

Emission Inventory Triennial Revision: Section 4

Control Measures and

Effectiveness


2008 AQMP: Section 6

Transportation Control

Measures



Vehicle Miles Traveled

Trends Triennial Revision: Appendix A

Contingency Measures 2008 AQMP: Sections 6.3 and 6.4

Ozone Transport Triennial Revision: Section 5


Public Education Program Triennial Revision: Section 8

3. Ambient Air Quality Ozone, the primary constituent of smog and the main pollutant of concern for the NCCAB, is formed in the atmosphere through complex chemical interactions involving reactive organic gases (ROG)1 and nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the presence of sunlight. The primary sources of ROG within the planning area are on- and off-road motor vehicles, petroleum production and marketing, solvent evaporation, and prescribed burning. The primary sources of NOx are on- and off-road motor vehicles, stationary source

1 ROG and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are considered equivalent in this report.



fuel combustion, and industrial processes. The District is responsible for measuring pollutant concentrations in the North Central Coast Air Basin (NCCAB), which consists of Monterey, Santa Cruz, and San Benito counties. There are six monitoring stations within the NCCAB (see Figure 3-1). The air basin forms an area of more than 5,100 square miles, with Monterey County covering over 3,320 square miles and Santa Cruz County covering only 445 square miles. The air basin is situated downwind of the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBAAB) and transport of ozone precursor emissions from the SFBAAB plays a dominate role in ozone concentrations measured in San Benito and Santa Cruz counties.

Ambient air quality standards (AAQS) establish levels of air quality that must be maintained to protect the public from the adverse effects of air pollution. California state standards are established to protect public health, including the most sensitive members of the population. National Ambient Air Quality Standards, or NAAQS, include a primary standard to protect public health and a secondary standard to protect the public welfare including property, vegetation and visibility. AAQS are established for what are called “criteria air pollutants”, which include ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, respirable particles (PM10), and fine particles (PM2.5). The current AAQS for ozone are presented in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1

Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone

Pollutant Averaging

Time

California Standards National Standards

Concentration Primary

Concentration3

Secondary

Concentration4

Ozone

1 hour 0.09 ppm (180 g/m3) -- --

8 hour 0.070 ppm (137 g/m3) 0.075 ppm (147 g/m

3) 0.075 ppm (147 g/m

3)

ppm = parts per million

In 2012, EPA issued final designations for the 2008 ozone standard which show the NCCAB as an attainment area based on monitoring data for the years 2009-2011. For the state ozone standards, ARB revised the standard in 2006 to include an 8-hour average of 0.070 ppm, while retaining the existing 1-hour standard at 0.09 ppm. Both the 1-hour and 8-hour components of the State standard must be met in order for the standard to be achieved. The NCCAB is designated by the ARB as a nonattainment area for the State ozone standard. Table 3-2 presents the current attainment status.



Table 3-2

Attainment Status for the North Central Coast Air Basin

Pollutant State Designation Federal Designation

Ozone (O3) Nonattainment Attainment

Respirable Particulates (PM10) Nonattainment Attainment

Fine Particulates (PM2.5) Attainment Attainment

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Monterey Co – Attainment

San Benito Co – Unclassified

Santa Cruz Co - Unclassified

Attainment

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Attainment Attainment

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Attainment Attainment

Lead Attainment Attainment

Sources: ARB Area Designation Maps website http://www.arb.ca.gov/desig/adm/adm.htm and EPA Green Book

Nonattainment Areas for Criteria Pollutants http://www.epa.gov/air/oaqps/greenbk/index.html

Monitoring Network

Ambient air quality is currently monitored at six stations in the NCCAB. The network includes five stations operated by the District and one station operated by the National Park Service at Pinnacles National Park. The Pinnacles National Park monitor is used by both ARB and EPA to designate the NCCAB as attainment or nonattainment of the ozone standards. The Pinnacles National Park monitor is also part of the Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET), a federal air quality monitoring network designed to provide data to assess trends in air quality, atmospheric deposition, and ecological effects due to changes in air pollutant emissions. The locations of the monitoring stations are shown in Figure 3-1.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/desig/adm/adm.htm



Monitoring Data and Overall Progress

Overall, the District has made progress in reducing the ozone concentrations within the NCCAB. Long-term trends for ozone concentrations at monitoring stations throughout the NCCAB show that progress has been made towards achieving the standards. The 10-year trend (2002-2011) in exceedances of the ozone standards are shown in Figure 3-2 for the concentrations measured at the Pinnacles National Park station. Although the figure indicates an overall improvement in air quality, it also demonstrates how the introduction of the state 8-hour standard increases the number of exceedances compared to the 1-hour standard. The year-to-year variations tend to be driven by variations in weather, while the overall decline tends to be driven by a reduction in emissions across the region.

Figure 3-1 Monitoring Stations

COUNTY

COUNTY

COUNTY



Currently, the NCCAB is in attainment with the federal 8-hour ozone standard. For comparison, exceedances of the federal 8-hour ozone standard are also included in Figure 3-2. These ozone exceedances follow a similar pattern to the state exceedances, although the number of exceedances of the federal standard is less than the state standard. The state 8-hour standard, however, is more protective of public health than both the prior 1-hour standard and the federal 8-hour standard. With natural background accounting for approximately half the level of the stringent 8-hour ozone standard, the introduction of the 8-hour averaging period has increased the number of exceedances recorded at the District’s monitoring stations and will make achieving the state ozone AAQS much more difficult (California Air Resources Board, 2005).

In terms of the 1-hour component of the State ozone standard, Figure 3-2 shows that there were no exceedances of the 1-hour standard during the entire period 2009-2011. As a result, the NCCAB currently meets the 1-hour component of the State ozone standard. This is an indicator of continued progress in meeting the California standard.

Ozone tends to be a seasonal pollutant which develops primarily in the summertime when the sunlight is strongest. As shown in the Figure 3-3, most NCCAB exceedances follow the typical May through October seasonal pattern as seen elsewhere in the state. However, with the introduction of the state 8-hour standard, exceedances become much more frequent and start as early as April. While the seasonal exceedance patterns for both the 1-hour and 8-hour standards are similar, the 8-hour standard greatly increases the number of exceedances and causes the ozone season to start earlier.

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Figure 3-2 Number of Days Exceeding Ozone Standards

Days Exceeding State 1-Hour Standard

Days Exceeding State 8-Hour Standard

Days Exceeding Federal 8-Hour Standard

Based on Pinnacles National Park monitoring station Data from ARB's Air Quality Data website: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/index.html



Ozone and Population Trends Population data for the region are developed by federal, state, and local agencies. The District uses the Association of Monterey Bay Area Government’s (AMBAG) population forecasts as the basis for air quality planning. The AMBAG forecast dated June 11, 2008 remains the same population forecast used for this plan. Although, AMBAG recently approved a 2012 forecast for use in regional transportation planning, this forecast will not be formally adopted until 2014 along with an update to the regional transportation demand model. The District will update the emissions inventory to reflect AMBAG’s population forecast after final adoption.

Figure 3-4 demonstrates how progress has been made toward achieving the California ozone standard between 2002 and 2011 even with some population growth during that same period. Although the population trend has remained relatively flat, the number of exceedance days continued to decline during the past 10 years. There were no exceedances of the 1-hour standard since the 2008 wildfire while population slightly increased during this time period. Exceedances of the 8-hour standard have also dropped from about 35 per year in 2002 down to typically less than 10 per year. This illustrates a key relationship between growth versus control whereby cleaner exhaust standards for automobiles, power plants and other sources of ozone precursors have outpaced population growth with the net result being an improvement in air quality. Specifically, the following list summarizes a number of key programs and rules which have and will continue to reduce emissions while population increases.

ARB’s Low Emission Vehicle Program – This program is key to the major the declines shown in Table 4-1 and 4-2 for NOx and ROG emissions from on-road motor vehicles.

ARB’s Off Road Motor Vehicle Program – Similar to the above program, ARB’s off-road motor vehicle program is responsible for the major declines shown in Tables 4-1 and 4-2 for NOx and ROG emissions from the Other Mobile Source emission category. This has reduced NOx emissions from diesel powered off-road trucks, agricultural equipment and other heavy duty equipment.

ARB’s Advanced Clean Cars – This ARB program promotes new technologies for motor vehicles including low emission and zero emission vehicles as well as clean fuels.

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Figure 3-3 10-Year Average of Exceedance Days

During the Ozone Season (Pinnacles National Park, 2002-2011)

8-Hour Exceedances - 10 Year Average 1-Hour Exceedances - 10 Year Average

Data from ARB's air quality data webpage: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/index.html



Pavley Fuel Standards – This program increases fuel mileage goals for new passenger cars and trucks which will reduce fuel consumption and related emissions through 2016.

District Rule 431, Emissions from Electric Power Boilers – This rule reduced the District’s NOx inventory by about 20 tons/day due to reductions from the Moss Landing Power Plant. Total NOx emissions from the plant, including its newer high efficiency gas turbines are less than 2 tons/day.

District Rule 1002 Transfer of Gasoline into Vehicle Fuel Tanks – This rule continues to produce a better than 90% reduction in ROG as well as toxic emissions from the gasoline vapors emitted during refueling of motor vehicles.

Air Quality Indicators

The California Clean Air Act (CCAA) requires the ARB to evaluate and identify air quality related indicators for districts to use in assessing their progress toward attainment of the state standards [Health and Safety Code section 39607(f)]. An indicator is a way of summarizing measured air quality data to represent aspects of air quality in a specific area. Typically, indicator data is used in the District’s triennial reports to the ARB that assesses progress toward attaining the ozone standard. The assessment must address (1) the peak concentrations in the peak “hot spot” subarea, (2) the population weighted average of the total exposure, and (3) the area-weighted average of the total exposure (ARB Resolution 90-96, November 8, 1990). The exposure data, items (2) and (3) are typically provided by ARB and have been presented in previous plans. However, ARB is no longer providing area-weighted and population-weighted exposure data to air districts so this data is not available to be included in this plan. As an alternative indicator, the mean of the highest 30 measured ozone concentrations are included in this plan. The following sections present the peak concentrations and the mean of the 30 highest concentrations.

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Figure 3-4 Population Growth vs. Exceedances

of the State Ozone Standard 2002-2011

1-Hr Exceedances

8-Hr Exceedances

Population (DOF)

Data Sources: ARB's Air Quality Data website: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/index.html California Department of Finance: http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4/2001-10/view.php

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4/2001-10/view.php







Peak Concentration or “Hot Spot” Indicator

The "hot spot" indicator is assessed in terms of the Expected Peak Day Concentration (EPDC). The EPDC is calculated by ARB based on ambient data from each monitoring site in the air basin. The EPDC is the calculated peak concentration, in units of parts per million (ppm), that is statistically expected to occur once per year, on average from each site during a consecutive three-year period providing a more stable indicator.

The Pinnacles National Park monitoring station is the NCCAB's peak "hot spot" station, being the monitoring site with the highest measured ozone concentrations in terms of the EPDC. The majority of NCCAB exceedances (and as a result, the site that determines the NCCAB attainment status) occur at this remote location which is far from urban sources of pollution. Figures 3-5 and 3-6 show the 10-year trend in 1-hour and 8-hour EPDCs for the Pinnacles National Park monitoring station, respectively. As shown in the figures, the EPDC trend has been flat over the past 10 years.

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Figure 3-5 Pinnacles National Park 1-Hour Ozone "Hot Spot"

1-Hour EPDC

1-Hour Standard

Data from ARB's air quality data website: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/index.html



Mean of the Highest 30 Ozone Concentrations

As an additional indicator of progress toward achieving the CAAQS for ozone, the ARB provided a “Top 30 Mean” summary to the District. This is the average of the highest 30 daily ozone 1-hour and 8-hour ozone measurements by year and by station. Since the summaries are based on the average of the highest 30 measurements by year, it provides a more weighted indicator of long-term progress driven more by emissions and less by natural variation.

Nonattainment Stations

Figures 3-7a and 3-7b present progress for the Top 30 indicator over the period 1988 to 2011 for Pinnacles National Park and Hollister; the two remaining stations in the NCCAB which have yet to achieve the CAAQS for ozone. The charts indicate that while there is year-to-year variation, both Pinnacles National Park and Hollister have shown measureable progress toward achieving the ozone standard. The charts also indicate greater progress was made for the 1-hour standard at both stations in comparison to the 8-hour standard. The slower progress for the 8-hour standard is partially due to the natural background ozone concentrations. Natural background ozone represents approximately half the level of the 8-hour ozone standard (California Air Resources Board, 2005).

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Figure 3-6 Pinnacles National Park 8-Hour Ozone "Hot Spot"

8-Hour EPDC

8-Hour Standard

Data from ARB's air quality data website: http://www.arb.ca.gov/adam/index.html



Attainment Stations

“Top 30 Mean” charts are also included for Carmel Valley and King City which are the next two stations with the highest ozone concentrations in the monitoring network. Both stations have met the 1-hour and 8-hour requirements of the CAAQs. Figures 3-8a and 3-8b demonstrate that these sites continue to show progress and are not in a state of reverse progress or “backsliding” whereby ozone levels are increasing, possibly leading to future nonattainment. The indicator suggests that both stations are in a good position to remain in attainment with the ozone standard.

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Figure 3- 7a Mean of the Top 30 Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations

Pinnacles National Park

1-Hour 8-Hour

8-Hour Standard 1-Hour Standard

Data provided by ARB

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Figure 3-7b Mean of the Top 30 Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations

Hollister

8-Hour 1-Hour





Figure 3-8b shows a slight increase at King City between 2009 and 2011. This is due primarily to natural variation in year to year weather conditions which tend to create the saw tooth pattern in the trend charts which are not indicative of a permanent increase in ozone levels. The most important factor is that the designation values for both the 1 and 8-hour components of the State standard remain well within the standard.

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Figure 3-8a Mean of the Top 30 Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations

Carmel Valley

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Figure 3-8b Mean of the Top 30 Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations

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4. Emission Inventory Trends An emission inventory is an estimate of the amount of air pollutants emitted into the air each day by man-made (anthropogenic) activities. Ambient ozone levels depend largely on the amount of precursors (NOx and ROG) emitted into the atmosphere. Therefore, the planning inventory trend is used to assess the region’s progress toward attaining the State ambient air quality standards. The emission inventory is used to compare contributions from different emission sources, develop plans and regulations to reduce ozone concentrations, evaluate control measures, and forecast future pollution.

The inventory presented in this report represents emissions of ozone precursors, NOx and ROG, in units of tons per day, for a typical weekday during the May through October ozone season. This inventory is often referred to as a “summer day” planning inventory.

For this inventory update, the year 2008 was used as the base year. The horizon year of 2035 was selected to be consistent with AMBAG’s 2010 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP). The California Emissions Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM), formerly the California Emission Forecasting System, is the ARB computer tool used to develop the projections. The emission estimates are based on the most current growth and control data available at the time of the forecast runs. For mobile sources, CEPAM integrates the emission estimates from ARB’s EMFAC and OFFROAD mobile source emission models to provide a comprehensive anthropogenic emission inventory. However, the current version of CEPAM is based on the outdated ARB EMFAC2007 model. Therefore, the on-road mobile source emissions were calculated using EMFAC2011-SG (version 1.1) and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) values from the AMBAG 2010 MTP. As with any other type of forecast, inventory forecasts become less reliable the further they are projected into the future. This is due to the increased uncertainty in what the actual level of growth and control will be in the future.

Future year forecasted emission inventories were updated to account for the most recent Emission Reduction Credits (ERC) that were in the District’s bank as of December 2012. ERC’s are previous reductions in emissions that can be credited to allow increased emissions from a new or modified stationary source. For future year forecasts (2020 and 2035), ERC’s were treated as potential growth. For historical years (1990-2010), the ERCs were represented as 0.1 tons per day to be consistent with prior AQMPs.

The emission inventories for NOx and ROG are presented in Tables 4-1 and 4-2. A more detailed version of the inventory is available upon request or can be downloaded from the District’s website. The inventory trend over time compared to the 2008 AQMP inventories is presented in Figure 4-1. The tables and figure show an overall decline in emissions of both ozone precursors. The decrease corresponds to the general improvement in ambient ozone levels in the NCCAB described in Section 3. The decrease is most pronounced for NOx, while the decrease in ROG is not as rapid and flattens out after 2020. The 1990 to 2035 reduction in ROG is expected to be about 55 tons per day or about a 47 percent reduction, while the corresponding reduction in NOx is expected to be about 93 tons per day or approximately a 74 percent reduction.



Table 4-1 Emission Inventory and Forecasts for NOx (tons per day)

Summer Season Planning Inventory

Source Category Inventory Planning Years

1990 2000 2008 2010 2020 2035

STATIONARY SOURCES

Fuel Combustion 34.23 16.80 9.29 9.33 8.51 8.94

Waste Disposal 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.05

Petroleum Production 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Industrial Processes 3.26 3.28 3.02 2.85 0.37 0.41

TOTAL (tons/day) 37.56 20.11 12.35 12.21 8.92 9.70

AREA-WIDE SOURCES

Miscellaneous Processes

2.32 3.24 4.84 4.94 5.08 5.23

TOTAL (tons/day) 2.32 3.24 4.84 4.94 5.08 5.23

MOBILE SOURCES

On-Road Vehicles 62.00 35.97 25.90 23.24 11.39 7.81

Other Mobile Sources 22.21 17.40 14.81 13.87 8.56 6.90

TOTAL (tons/day) 84.21 53.37 40.71 37.11 19.95 14.71

Emission Reduction Credits*

0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 2.95 2.95

TOTAL ALL SOURCES (tons/day)

124.20 76.82 58.00 54.36 36.40 32.29

Notes: Emissions data based on ARB CEPAM database, EMFAC2011, and AMBAG VMT projections.

*For consistency with prior AQMPs, the emission reduction credits for historical years are reported as 0.1 tons per day.

For the future years (2020 and 2035), the emission reduction credits equal the total banked emissions in the District’s

company held and community banks to account for future potential growth.



Table 4-2 Emission Inventory and Forecasts for ROG (tons per day)

Summer Season Planning Inventory

Source Category Inventory Planning Years

1990 2000 2008 2010 2020 2035

STATIONARY SOURCES

Fuel Combustion 1.72 1.94 1.28 1.31 1.28 1.30

Waste Disposal 1.26 1.28 1.50 1.56 1.80 2.04

Cleaning & Surface Coatings

5.58 3.29 3.46 3.47 3.92 4.19

Petroleum Production & Marketing

4.98 2.41 2.34 2.36 2.53 2.61

Industrial Processes 0.39 0.54 0.74 0.78 1.02 1.13

TOTAL (tons/day) 13.94 9.47 9.32 9.48 10.54 11.27

AREA-WIDE SOURCES

Solvent Evaporation

17.85 13.72 14.47 14.68 15.67 17.03

Miscellaneous Processes

9.37 11.91 16.34 17.03 17.06 17.11

TOTAL (tons/day) 27.22 25.64 30.81 31.71 32.73 34.14

MOBILE SOURCES

On-Road Vehicles 55.28 17.62 11.79 10.58 5.01 3.89

Other Mobile Sources

17.85 16.00 12.37 11.52 9.40 9.96

TOTAL (tons/day) 73.13 33.62 24.16 22.10 14.42 13.85

Emission Reduction Credits*

0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.36 0.36

TOTAL ALL SOURCES (tons/day)

114.39 68.83 64.39 63.38 58.05 59.61

Notes: Emissions data based on ARB CEPAM database, EMFAC2011, and AMBAG VMT projections.

*For consistency with prior AQMPs, the emission reduction credits for historical years are reported as 0.1 tons per

day. For the future years (2020 and 2035), the emission reduction credits equal the total banked emissions in the

District’s company held and community banks to account for future potential growth.

Figure 4-1 shows the updated inventory is lower than the 2008 AQMP. The main contributor to the reduction in emissions is the lower vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Appendix A contains a letter from AMBAG showing the difference in the VMT trend between the 2008 AQMP and the values used to update the emissions inventory. Currently, AMBAG is working on developing an update to the population, housing, and employment forecasts along with a major improvement to the regional



transportation demand model. The next revision to the emission inventory will incorporate AMBAG’s updated VMT which is anticipated to be completed in the year 2014.

Figure 4-1 shows a slight increase in ROG for the forecast horizon year 2035. This trend was seen in both the 2008 AQMP and this current revision. Long range forecasts become less reliable when projected into the future. At this time, there are few known control measures for area sources going into effect between 2020 and 2035 to reduce ROG emissions. Therefore, the ROG emissions slight increase during this time period is due to population growth. Additionally, a photochemical modeling project undertaken by the District in the 1990's indicated that areas with the highest ozone readings, including Pinnacles National Park, are most sensitive to regional reductions in NOx emissions. Figure 4-1 does show that the more important pollutant, NOx, is estimated to continue to decline over time. There will be several more updates to the emission inventory, prior to the year 2035, where these trends will be reassessed.

5. Ozone Transport In addition to emissions generated locally within the NCCAB, ARB has determined that emissions transported into the NCCAB from urban areas outside the air basin can have a significant impact on violations of the ozone standard. This is particularly true at monitoring stations that currently do not meet the state standard, including Pinnacles National Park, which is the air basin's design site for meeting the state standard. Data monitored in the most populated area of the basin, Salinas, shows that the basin is attaining the state ozone standard while data monitored at the Pinnacles National Park, located in an unpopulated area, shows that the basin is not attaining the standard. The exceedances measured at the Pinnacles National Park monitoring station are primarily due to emissions transported from the Bay Area. The most significant transport couple affecting the NCCAB is the upwind relationship of the San Francisco Bay Area Air Basin (SFBAAB), which is due to in part to a continuous terrain feature

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Figure 4-1 Comparison of Emission Inventory Trends:

2008 AQMP to 2012 Triennial Revision

Updated ROG Emissions

Updated NOx Emissions

2008 AQMP ROG Emissions

2008 AQMP NOx Emissions



(Santa Clara Valley/San Benito River Valley) which links the two areas. This is referred to as the SFBAAB to NCCAB transport couple. This couple was initially identified in the first transport assessments in 1990 and has been reaffirmed in subsequent assessments, including the ARB’s most recent transport review in 2001. The green arrow in Figure 5-1 shows the transport trajectory from the SFBAAB to Pinnacles National Park in San Benito County.

Figure 5-1 Transport Trajectory from SFBAAB

Transport from the SFBAAB has a particularly strong influence on the NCCAB attainment status. The transport assessments for 1994 and 1995 indicate that 50 percent of NCCAB exceedances are the result of “overwhelming” transport from the SFBAAB, meaning that the exceedance would have occurred even with little or no emission contribution from the NCCAB. Thirty percent of the exceedances are classified as significant, meaning that emissions from both the upwind and local areas contributed measurably to exceedances of the standard. The remaining exceedances are classified as extreme concentration events or inconclusive. Since the ARB transport assessments indicate that emissions transported from the SFBAAB, as well as emissions from the NCCAB contribute to violations, continuing emission reductions in the entire region will likely be necessary to maintain the 1-hour standard and continue progress towards achieving the state 8-hour standard.

More recently, Figure 5-2 shows the possible contribution of transported emissions originating in the San Francisco Bay Area to a rare exceedance of the 8-hour federal ozone standard in Hollister on September 26, 2010. The illustration is based on actual trajectories using the Hysplit model. The trajectory begins in the San Jose urban area on the morning of the 26th and later arrives in Hollister during the afternoon hour when the 8-hour exceedance was recorded. A second exceedance was later recorded at Pinnacles National Park as the urban air continued to be transported southward.

Source: ARB, 2001



Figure 5-2 Forward Trajectories from San Jose

Starting 8 am PDT September 26, 2010

6. Control Measures The basic strategy for improving air quality is to reduce emissions of those air pollutants which cause violations of ambient air quality standards. Because ozone is a regional pollutant, reductions in NOx and ROG emissions in the entire NCCAB are needed. In addition, as discussed in Section 5, transport of pollutants to the NCCAB significantly contributes to violations of the 8-hour ozone standard.

The 2008 AQMP documented that the air basin continued to attain the 1-hour standard and recommended adoption of five control measures to make progress towards achieving the 8-hour standard. The measures considered in the 2008 AQMP were solvent cleaning operations, spray booths, degreasing, adhesives and sealants, and natural gas-fired fan-type furnaces and residential water heaters. As described in the 2008 AQMP, the measures were selected based on a screening level analysis of the emission reduction potential and cost effectiveness. As shown in Figure 3-2, without implementation of these measures, the number of ozone exceedance days continues to decline slightly. The ozone precursor emissions inventory shows future emission trends will remain flat for ROG and decline for NOx.

The five control measures have not been implemented as the District determined progress continued to be made toward attaining the 8-hour ozone standard during the three-year period reviewed (2009-2011). Significant reductions in ozone concentrations are not anticipated with implementation of the five measures because the primary pollutant addressed is ROG emissions. Furthermore, measure A5 Natural Gas Fired Fan-Type Central Furnaces and Residential Water Heaters, is likely already being achieved in practice because surrounding air districts have long standing rules in place regarding NOx emissions from these sources. The District commits to further evaluating these measures over the upcoming three-year period and will implement the most beneficial measures if the District fails to make progress toward attaining the 8-hour ozone standard.



In 2010, a large stationary source, Cemex, in the District shut down which led to greater emission reductions than the combined reductions expected from implementing the five control measures. In addition, the monitoring data in 2009, 2010, and 2011 showed only 6, 6, and 2 exceedance days, respectively, of the 8-hour standard compared to 18, 17, and 26 days in 2006, 2007, and 2008, respectively. Moving forward, the District does not recommend new rules for adoption unless it is shown to be cost-effective, technologically feasible, and appropriate for Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties.

District Rules Adopted or Revised During the time period 2009 -2011, one District rule, Rule 438, was revised that may result in reducing ROG and NOx emissions. Other rule revisions were adopted during this time period but those changes would not be expected to result in reducing ROG or NOx emissions. Rule 438 Open Outdoor Fires, was revised in October 2011 to prohibit backyard burning of grass clippings, piled leaves and piled pine needles. The District does not have baseline data regarding the mass of this type of material burned prior to the Rule 438 change; however, the District anticipates the reduction in allowable fuel to burn will result in reducing both ROG and NOx emissions.

More recently, in 2012, the District revised Rule 426 and Rule 438. Rule 426 Architectural Coatings was updated for consistency with ARB’s Suggested Control Measure and is anticipated to achieve a 28 percent emission reduction. This corresponds to a reduction of approximately 0.25 tons ROG per day. Rule 438 Open Outdoor Fires was updated to require permits for backyard burning and to restrict the property size for backyard burning. The District does not have baseline data regarding the number of backyard burns conducted prior to the Rule 438 change. However, the District anticipates the rule changes will result in fewer backyard burns due to the property size restrictions added to the rule which may reduce both ROG and NOx emissions.

The District continues to provide grant funding opportunities to reduce both ROG and NOx emissions, primarily from mobile sources. The emission reductions achieved through these programs have resulted in greater NOx emission reductions than implementation of the five control measures would achieve. The following section discusses the District’s mobile source grant programs and demonstrates the District continues to achieve emission reductions through these programs.

7. Mobile Source Programs The 2008 AQMP detailed transportation control measures (TCMs) contained in AMBAG’s Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program. However, since 2008, the region has come into attainment of all NAAQS such that air quality conformity analysis is no longer required and TCMs are no longer listed in the MTIP (AMBAG, 2012). To support reducing on-road vehicle emissions, the District’s AB2766 grant program focuses funding on direct emission reduction projects. The District is also evaluating whether to implement a voluntary accelerated vehicle retirement (VAVR) and/or voluntary repair of vehicles (VRV) to reduce light-duty vehicle emissions in accordance with the Carl Moyer Program.

Notwithstanding the technological advances in automobile engine emissions and the advances in clean fuel formulations, the state of California still leads the nation with the dirtiest air. Vehicles continue to produce approximately 50% of the state’s criteria pollutant emissions, including ozone precursors ROG and NOx. Therefore, the District targets state funding received to reduce motor vehicle emissions.

The District continues to utilize grant programs as the primary strategy to reduce on-road and off-road mobile source emissions in the NCCAB. The four active programs are:

The Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment Program



The Lower Emission School Bus Program (LESBP)

The AB923 grant program

The AB2766 Mobile Source Emissions Reduction Program

Pursuant to § 44220 of the California Health and Safety Code, local DMV fees collected by the District are used to fund the AB923 and AB2766 grant programs as well as augmenting the Carl Moyer program. The Lower Emission School Bus Program (LESBP) is funded by the voter approved Proposition 1B bond program but is due to sunset by June 2014. The Carl Moyer and AB923 programs are due to sunset in January 2015 unless program extending legislation is passed before 2015. Typical grant funding amounts are shown in Table 7-1.

Table 7-1

Annual Program Funding Amounts

Funding Program Average Annual Funding ($)

Carl Moyer $750,000

LESBP* $7,100,000

AB923 $1,200,000

AB2766 $1,600,000

*This was a one time only funding program.

Estimated annual emission reductions from projects funded by the grant programs are shown in Figure 7-1. Emission reduction data for the Carl Moyer Program represent projects funded Moyer Year 8 to present and were calculated by the ARB CARL database tool. Estimates for LESBP are from FY 2009-2011 and were calculated using ARB 2010 Emission Factor Tables (March 2010). Data for the AB2766 program represents emission reductions from a regional TCM project (regional vanpools) from FY 2009 to present and were also calculated using the ARB 2010 Emission Factor Tables (March 2010).

Combined, these mobile grant programs have reduced annual NOx emissions by 255 tons and annual ROG emissions by 149 tons. In terms of emission reductions, these are more effective than the five control measures in the 2008 AQMP. In fact, the NOx reductions achieved by the grant programs far outweigh the reductions associated with the NOx control measure, A-5, from the 2008 AQMP (Natural Gas-Fired Fan-Type Central Furnaces and Residential Water Heaters). Reducing NOx emissions is important for making progress toward attaining the 8-hour ozone standard because the NCCAB is NOx limited. This means that ozone formation is more limited by the availability of NOx as opposed to the availability of ROGs.



8. Public Outreach The District conducts public outreach through a variety of methods including the District’s website, brochures, attendance at local events, annual calendar art contest, Way to Go! curriculum, and social media. These programs are important for raising public awareness about how each person can contribute to the air quality improvement process. The following is a brief summary of the District’s outreach activities.

Website and Social Media: The District website is an important communication tool used to provide information to the public such as press releases, meeting notices, grant program announcements, and current air quality data. The District also maintains Facebook and Twitter pages to post current information.

Participation in Local Events and Committees: The District participates in local events to inform the public about air quality and sources that contribute to air pollution such as cars and smoke from wood burning for home heating. Events the District participates include county fairs, Earth Day, speaking engagements for local groups, non-voting member of the Transportation Agency of Monterey County’s Board, member of technical advisory committees for the local regional transportation planning agencies and AMBAG, and member of the Monterey Bay Electric Vehicle Alliance.

Annual Calendar Art Contest: The District hosts a calendar art contest each year to promote learning for elementary and middle school students. The focus of the calendar themes are generally on air quality and transportation. Past calendar themes include; Make a Clean Air Choice, Travel Without Your Car and What’s Your Solution to Air Pollution.

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Figure 7-1 Grant Program Emission Reductions

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Air Expressions: The District has a grant program available for projects from high school (9-12th grades) and college undergraduate students. Projects are encouraged that advance the understanding of relevant air quality and climate change issues in relation to transportation.

Way to Go!: The District's curriculum, Way to Go!, is offered to 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th grade teachers to educate young people about the interaction between air pollution and transportation and the ways that each of us can make a positive difference. Each year, the District hosts workshops that educate over 20 teachers on elements in the curriculum.

9. Emission Reduction Strategy This report has shown that the District continues to make progress toward attaining the 8-hour ozone standard. However, the significant contribution of transported emissions to exceedances will challenge achieving attainment of the 8-hour standard. The District will continue to foster and support programs that reduce ozone precursor emissions and implement rules when necessary. The District’s priority is to reduce ozone precursor emissions from mobile sources as this is the primary contributor to NOx emissions. Mobile source emission reductions are primarily achieved through the District’s incentive programs. These programs include AB2766 grants to local agencies for vanpools, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and infrastructure, support of local rideshare and bike to work events, and AB923 funds for school buses and Carl Moyer Program projects. To address ROG emissions, in the upcoming years, the District will work to refine the area source ROG emissions inventory to evaluate whether the inventory properly reflects local conditions. This will help identify the sources to consider for additional emission reduction strategies.



References Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments. (2010). Monterey Bay Area Mobility 2035 Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Available from: http://www.ambag.org/programs/met_transp_plann/mtp.html.

Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments. (2012). Monterey Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Program FFY 2012-13 through 2015-16. Available from: http://www.ambag.org/programs/met_transp_plann/mtip.html.

Bay Area Air Quality Management District. (2000). Bay Area-North Central Coast Photochemical Modeling Investigation of Ozone Formation and Transport. Final Report.

California Air Resources Board. (2005). Review of the California Ambient Air Quality Standard for Ozone. Staff Report. Page 4-11.

California Air Resources Board. California Emissions Projection Analysis Model (CEPAM). Available from: http://www.arb.ca.gov/app/emsinv/fcemssumcat2009.php.

California Air Resources Board. (2001). Ozone Transport: 2001 Review. Planning and Technical Support Division.

California Department of Finance. (2012). E-4 Population Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2001-2010, with 2000 & 2010 Census Counts, version 1.3. Available from: http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-4/2001-10/view.php.

Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District. (2008). 2008 Air Quality Management Plan. Available from: http://www.mbuapcd.org/programs/planning/163.

Shipp Air Quality Consulting. (2009). Ozone and Precursor Transport to the North Central Coast Air Basin. Final Report.

http://www.ambag.org/programs/met_transp_plann/mtp.html

http://www.arb.ca.gov/app/emsinv/fcemssumcat2009.php


http://www.mbuapcd.org/programs/planning/163

Appendix A – AMBAG Technical Memorandum on Regional Travel

Demand Model Forecasting Methodology

MEMORANDUM

Date: June 2, 2010 To: For 2010 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) /Supplemental

Environmental Impact Report (SEIR) file From: Bhupendra Patel, Senior Transportation Modeler Subject: Technical Memorandum for AMBAG Regional Travel Demand Model

(RTDM) Forecasting Methodology This memorandum is prepared in response to the comments on the 2010 Metropolitan Transportation (MTP) / Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Report (DSEIR). The purpose of this memorandum is to summarize the differences in the traffic modeling assumptions and methodology used for the development of the AMBAG 2005 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) and those used for the Draft 2010 MTP. There is interest in understanding the differences between the modeling assumptions because reviewers have noted that there is a difference in the estimated base year Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) between the two MTP’s. Due to substantial changes in the RTDM methodology and assumptions, there is a significant difference in the model’s estimated Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) for the AMBAG region for the year 2000 and 2005, base years for the 2005 MTP and 2010 MTP respectively (for VMT statistics please see Attachment A). The following describes the chain of events and methodology/assumptions used for the AMBAG RTDM:

• During the time of 2005 MTP development (fall 2004) AMBAG used a hybrid approach to carryout the conformity /EIR analysis since the new TransCAD model was under development and not ready to use for such analysis. The current AMBAG RTDM is developed in the TransCAD software to represent and manage a very detailed transportation network and analyze more complex travel demand forecast modeling process.

• The MINUTP and FORTRAN files for the 2000 and 2025 analysis years of the 1990 Calibrated AMBAG Model was used and Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) estimation for the base year 2000 was post processed to include the share of total VMT on lower volume links that was not assigned by the model. These links VMT were estimated separately, as they were not included in the MINUTP model network. The extrapolation and post processing of the VMT for the base year 2000 was reported of 18,205,127 VMT which is 8.36% higher than that of the Federal Highway

−1−

Administration’s certified Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) reported VMT of 16, 801, 000 (Attachment A & C).

• Each year, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) certifies Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) report’s VMT statistics that are often used to compare with modeled VMT estimates. According to the HPMS data both the 2005 and 2010 MTP VMT estimates are well within the accepted 10% range of the HPMS values for the AMBAG region for the model base years 2000 and 2005.

• AMBAG staff and consultant worked on additional model refinements between 2004 and 2007, including development of an improved user interface, adding interim years of analysis, incorporating more time period assignments capabilities and carried out the validation of the entire new model. AMBAG did not finalize the model revisions until early 2007.

2010 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) In conjunction with the 2010 MTP, the AMBAG model was updated to a 2005 base year. The recent model update, built upon the enhancements, added in the full base year 2000 TransCAD model. This is the first AMBAG MTP to use the TransCAD-based model. The 2005 base year AMBAG models have a number of advantages:

• Does not require off-model VMT adjustments because of added network and zonal details

• Calibrated to the 2001-02 household survey • Uses 2000 Census demographic data • Added trip generation details to be sensitive to income, age, auto ownership and

household size • Adds trucks as a separate vehicle class • Adds Santa Clara County to the model

The 2005 base year model is performing well when compared to 527 count locations around the region. The model validation against counts shows 29.1% Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and -1.9% count VMT error. Typically, complex large scale regional models (like the one for the AMBAG region) perform in the range from 35-40% RMSE. The system-wide modeled 2005 base year VMT estimate is consistent with the 2005 HPMS estimates (within -5%). The 2005 base year model also uses the latest AMBAG population and employment forecast, which is significantly different then that of previous model. Conclusions AMBAG has more confidence in the current version of the AMBG Regional Travel Demand Model and its results. It is more robust and has been superseded with more up to date assumptions and methods as demonstrated above and in the attached model validation summary report (Attachment B). The current overall model validation when compared to local count data and HPMS statistics is exceptionally good.

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AMBAG is continuing working on the transit model enhancements and several other components of the current RTDM and expected to be completed by September 30, 2010. This effort will be peer reviewed and a final model validation and associated technical report will be released for model user as well as general public. Attachments:

Attachment 1 – AMBAG Region: VMT trends 1999 to 2008 and 2035 Attachment 2 – Summary of AMBAG 2005 Base Year Model Update Attachment 3 – VMT forecasts trend line chart

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Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS)Jurisdiction 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008MONTEREY 8,694,900 9,217,300 9,331,900 9,336,174 9,930,000 9,550,738 10,083,737 10,024,028 9,842,988 9,858,882 9,896,342 9,991,845 9,778,089SAN BENITO 1,139,600 1,164,600 1,244,100 1,236,084 1,462,000 1,450,965 1,440,795 1,499,057 1,448,116 1,445,072 1,483,230 1,394,031 1,387,044SANTA CRUZ 4,896,900 5,116,400 5,192,500 5,197,757 5,409,000 5,356,219 5,509,049 5,608,052 5,626,761 5,647,513 5,543,305 5,428,626 5,354,077AMBAG Region 14,731,400 15,498,300 15,768,500 15,770,014 16,801,000 16,357,923 17,033,581 17,131,137 16,917,864 16,951,467 16,922,877 16,814,502 16,519,209

2000# 2005* 2035*MONTEREY 10,474,977 9,228,000 14,998,565SAN BENITO 1,670,631 1,555,000 3,229,073SANTA CRUZ 6,059,519 5,292,000 7,451,192AMBAG Region 18,205,127 16,075,000 25,678,830% Difference 8.357 -5.170

* DVMT- estimeted using AMBAG RTDM and reported in the 2010 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)

Attachment 1

HPMS Data Source: California Department of Transportation, Transportation System Information Program, Office of Travel Forecasting & Analysis, Highway Inventory & Performance Branch

AMBAG Model Results

Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (DVMT)

# DVMT- estimeted using AMBAG RTDM and reported in the 2005 Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP).

Attachment 2

Summary of AMBAG 2005 Base Year Model Update During late 2009, the AMBAG model was updated, bringing the base year from 2000 to 2005. The primary motivation behind the update project was to incorporate AMBAG’s latest land use forecast into the model assumptions, and to use the updated model to analyze capacity projects for the 2010 MTP. The new forecast employment methodology represented a change from the previous model, and a large amount of the work involved in the update was related to this change. The model’s network, trip generation, trip distribution, external trips, and truck trips were updated to reflect the new base and horizon year of the model. Overall model validation against count data improved from previous versions. Also, the model validates well against other sources such as HPMS. The following discussion summarizes the update process. Validation to Traffic Counts After updating and calibrating each component of the model to match 2005 conditions, the model was validated against 2005 daily count data. The overall model validation achieved 29.03% Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which is considered excellent, and represents an improved validation than in previous versions of the model. Results for both Monterey and Santa Cruz counties was better than the overall regional validation performance. Model validation was also checked by functional classification, by link type, by volume group, and by aggregate VMT and the model was found to be performing well. Those results are listed below.

VALIDATION BY FUNCTIONAL CLASS BY COUNTY, BASE YEAR 2005 - AMBAG REGION

SANTA CRUZ

Data 2 6 7 12 14 16 AllNumber of Links 4 4 4 42 34 52 140Avg. Pct. Loading Error -6.3% -18.7% -29.9% 1.3% -19.8% -26.3% -10.0%Avg. Pct. VMT Error -5.9% -3.8% -29.7% 0.3% -18.4% -16.9% -3.4%RMSE Error 6.7% 38.4% 45.1% 16.2% 30.7% 51.7% 27.8%

SAN BENITO

Data 2 6 7 12 14 16 AllNumber of Links 7 11 3 2 7 30Avg. Pct. Loading Error 1.0% -30.5% -19.8% 47.1% -55.4% -13.6%Avg. Pct. VMT Error -2.7% -7.0% -17.7% 145.5% -70.4% -5.8%RMSE Error 34.7% 56.1% 23.4% 147.1% 86.5% 68.7%

MONTEREY

Data 2 6 7 12 14 16 AllNumber of Links 92 58 29 45 66 46 336Avg. Pct. Loading Error -1.2% 3.9% -49.3% 3.5% -19.6% -18.5% -7.8%Avg. Pct. VMT Error -2.7% 2.0% -50.7% 4.4% -21.1% -25.7% -3.9%RMSE Error 22.5% 40.5% 63.0% 14.2% 28.6% 33.3% 26.7%

AMBAG REGION

Data 2 6 7 12 14 16 AllNumber of Links 111 74 36 89 105 112 527Avg. Pct. Loading Error 1.4% -3.5% -45.0% 2.6% -18.6% -22.5% -7.5%Avg. Pct. VMT Error 0.4% 1.9% -46.4% 2.5% -19.0% -22.1% -1.9%RMSE Error 26.0% 47.0% 60.7% 15.5% 31.1% 45.2% 29.1%

Functional Class

Functional Class

Functional Class

Functional Class

Table 3 – Validation by Functional Class by County Functional Classification System:

2 Rural Other Principal Arterial 6 Rural Minor Arterial 7 Major Collector 12 Freeways & Expressways 14 Urban Other Principal Arterial 16 Urban Minor Arterial

VALIDATION BY LINK TYPE, BASE YEAR 2005 - AMBAG REGION

Data FREEWAY MULTILANE TWO LANE ALLNumber of Links 140 131 256 527Avg. Pct. Loading Error 2.5% -7.9% -21.9% -7.5%Avg. Pct. VMT Error 1.7% 2.3% -15.1% -1.9%RMSE Error 14.9% 29.5% 48.2% 29.1%

LINK_TYPE

Table 4- Validation Results by Link Type VALIDATION BY VOLUME GROUP, BASE YEAR 2005 - AMBAG REGION

Data 250 750 3000 7500 15000 35000 75000 ALLNumber of Links 4 15 82 91 141 184 10 527Avg. Pct. Loading Error 130.7% 22.0% -10.9% -9.7% -16.8% -4.7% 2.6% -7.5%Avg. Pct. VMT Error 172.5% 14.2% -13.5% -2.6% -10.8% 1.1% 3.7% -1.9%RMSE Error 146.7% 79.5% 77.6% 51.1% 30.7% 22.6% 5.8% 29.1%

Volume Group

Table 5 – Validation Results by Volume Group SUMMARY VMT VALIDATION STATISTICS - ONLY FOR LINKS WITH COUNTSYEAR 2005

MONTEREY SAN BENITO SANTA CRUZ MODEL TOTALSum of vmt model 3,446,396 164,900 1,300,103 4,911,398 Sum of vmt count 3,587,000 175,093 1,345,992 5,108,085 Error (140,605) (10,194) (45,889) (196,688) Pct Error -3.92% -5.82% -3.41% -3.85%Model/Count Ratio 96.1% 94.2% 96.6% 96.1%

DataCOUNTY

Table 6 – Validation Results for VMT Error Comparing VMT with HPMS The AMBAG model is being used to estimate the impacts of various project scenarios in the development of the MTP. One of the major outputs from this process is an estimation of total VMT by county and for the region. Because these outputs are critical, the model was also subjected to a validation test against HPMS data. This VMT comparison is different that the one reported in Table 6 above. In Table 6, only links with traffic counts are used. In Table 7, the model was used to estimate all VMT in each of the three AMBAG counties. Table 7 shows that the updated AMBAG model is slightly underestimating VMT when compared to 2005 HPMS estimates, but results are within an acceptable level of error.

AMBAG Vehicle Miles Travel (VMT) Forecasts

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

22,000,000

24,000,000

26,000,000

28,000,000

30,000,000

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2035

Forecast year

Dai

ly V

MT

1997 AQMP2000 AQMP2004 AQMP2008 AQMP2010 SEIR

* SEIR response to comment value for 1990

Attachment 3

Appendix B – On‐Road Motor Vehicle Emissions

Appendix B On-Road Emissions

1990 2000 2005 2008 2010 2020 2035Light Duty Passenger 26.12 7.18 5.42 4.55 3.87 1.13 0.76Light Duty Trucks (LDT1) 10.87 1.35 1.03 0.85 0.69 0.24 0.12Light Duty Trucks (LDT2) 7.13 3.35 2.75 2.45 2.23 0.91 0.64Medium Duty Trucks 1.32 2.22 1.52 1.43 1.44 1.10 0.78Light Heavy Duty Gas Trucks (LHDT1) 1.06 1.17 0.76 0.61 0.59 0.41 0.23Light Heavy Duty Gas Trucks (LHDT2) 1.13 0.22 0.11 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.01Medium Heavy Duty Gas Trucks 2.84 0.25 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.06 0.03Heavy Heavy Duty Gas Trucks 0.73 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.01Light Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks (LHDT1) 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.06Light Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks (LHDT2) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01Medium Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks 0.10 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.04 0.05Heavy Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks 1.57 0.45 0.43 0.36 0.32 0.23 0.36Motorcycles 1.73 0.80 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.64 0.77Heavy Duty Diesel Urban Buses 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01Heavy Duty Gas Urban Buses 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03School Buses 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01Other Buses 0.24 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.03 0.03Motor Homes 0.22 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.00TOTAL - On-Road Motor Vehicles 55.28 17.62 13.57 11.79 10.58 5.01 3.89

1990 2000 2005 2008 2010 2020 2035Light Duty Passenger 19.21 6.88 4.94 4.01 3.37 1.17 0.93Light Duty Trucks (LDT1) 10.65 1.13 0.84 0.71 0.60 0.25 0.10Light Duty Trucks (LDT2) 7.91 5.69 4.44 3.81 3.34 1.11 0.57Medium Duty Trucks 1.68 4.75 3.15 2.84 2.74 1.57 0.69Light Heavy Duty Gas Trucks (LHDT1) 0.58 1.36 0.97 0.90 0.89 0.69 0.50Light Heavy Duty Gas Trucks (LHDT2) 0.77 0.14 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03Medium Heavy Duty Gas Trucks 1.47 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.25 0.10 0.05Heavy Heavy Duty Gas Trucks 1.52 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.07Light Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks (LHDT1) 0.08 2.04 2.66 2.37 2.25 1.35 0.62Light Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks (LHDT2) 0.26 0.44 0.56 0.56 0.53 0.31 0.14Medium Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks 4.36 2.67 2.26 2.18 1.91 0.75 0.45Heavy Heavy Duty Diesel Trucks 11.42 8.65 8.30 6.61 5.57 2.78 2.81Motorcycles 0.23 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.27Heavy Duty Diesel Urban Buses 0.49 0.68 0.53 0.21 0.48 0.44 0.23Heavy Duty Gas Urban Buses 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.10School Buses 0.3 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.13 0.06Other Buses 0.67 0.73 0.76 0.61 0.55 0.24 0.15Motor Homes 0.36 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.09 0.05TOTAL - On-Road Motor Vehicles 62.00 35.97 30.48 25.90 23.24 11.39 7.81

ROG Daily Emissions (tons per day)On-Road Motor Vehicles (EMFAC2011)

On-Road Motor Vehicles (EMFAC2011)NOx Daily Emissions (tons per day)

triennial plan revision 2009 - 2011 -...

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