tributary strategy workgroup discussion of phase 5 watershed model
DESCRIPTION
Jeff Sweeney University of Maryland Chesapeake Bay Program Office [email protected] 410-267-9844 http://www.chesapeakebay.net/ Tributary Strategy Workgroup Phase 5 Meeting Chesapeake Bay Program Office January 26, 2005. Tributary Strategy Workgroup - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Tributary Strategy WorkgroupDiscussion of Phase 5 Watershed Model
Jeff SweeneyUniversity of Maryland
Chesapeake Bay Program [email protected]
410-267-9844http://www.chesapeakebay.net/
Tributary Strategy Workgroup Phase 5 MeetingChesapeake Bay Program Office
January 26, 2005
Atmospheric Deposition
Phase 5 Atmospheric Deposition
• Need to know the spatial and temporal variations in the concentrations of dissolved substances in precipitation.
o From monitoring station wet-fall:
Daily precipitation volumes Weekly NH4
+ concentrations Weekly NO3
- concentrations
• Phase 4 Watershed Modelo 15 NADP/NTN monitoring stationso 1984-1992
• Phase 5 Watershed Modelo 29 NADP/NTN monitoring stationso 6 AirMoN monitoring stationso 1984-2001
Phase 5 Atmospheric Deposition
• Need to know the spatial and temporal variations in the concentrations of dissolved substances in precipitation.
o From monitoring station wet-fall: Daily precipitation volumes Weekly NH4
+ concentrations Weekly NO3
- concentrations
o Wet-fall concentration model yields: Daily NH4
+ concentrations Daily NO3
- concentrations
o Daily precipitation volumes and daily inorganic concentrations yield:
Daily deposition of NH4+ and NO3
- in wet-fall
Phase 5 Atmospheric Deposition
• Wet-fall concentration model:
Log10(c) = bo + b1log10(ppt) + b2sseason + b3v3 + . . . + bnvn +e
where, c = daily wet-fall ionic concentration (mg/L)
bo = intercept
ppt = daily precipitation volume (inches)b1 = coefficient for precipitation term
season = vector of 5 binary indicator variables encoding the 6 bi-monthly seasonsb2s = vector of 5 coefficients for season terms
v3 . . Vn = additional predictors selected through stepwise regressiono National Land Cover Data (NLCD) Within proximities of 0.8, 1.6, 3.2, 8.0, and 16.1 km of each NADP/NTN site Open water, forested, residential, industrial/transportation, croplands, and vegetated
wetlandso Local emission levels of ammonia and nitrous oxides from EPA National Emission Trends
(NET) County emission totals 1985-1999 County containing each NADP/NTN monitoring site and for the nearest 3 counties
b3 . . bn = coefficients corresponding to v3 . . Vn
e = residual error
Phase 5 Atmospheric DepositionNH4
+ Wet-fall Concentration (mg/L)May 1, 1998
NH4+ Wet-fall Deposition (kg/ha)
May 1, 1998
Estimates produced by applying daily ammonium concentration model to grids of estimated daily precipitation from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Daily
Precipitation Analyses.
Phase 5 Atmospheric DepositionNO3
- Wet-fall Concentration (mg/L)May 1, 1998
NO3- Wet-fall Deposition (kg/ha)
May 1, 1998
Estimates produced by applying daily nitrate concentration model to grids of estimated daily precipitation from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Daily
Precipitation Analyses.
Phase 5 Atmospheric DepositionNH4
+ Wet Deposition (kg/ha)Mean annual (1985-2001)
NO3- Wet Deposition (kg/ha)
Mean annual (1985-2001)
Estimates produced by applying daily ammonium and nitrate concentration model to grids of estimated daily precipitation from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s
U.S. Daily Precipitation Analyses.
Estimates produced by applying daily NH4+ and NO3- concentration model to estimates of daily precipitation
from a high resolution hourly precipitation model developed by the USGS for river modeling segment in
the CB watershed.
Phase 5 Atmospheric DepositionTotal Inorganic Nitrogen Wet Deposition (kg/ha)
Mean annual (1985-2001)
Estimates produced by applying daily NH4+ and NO3- concentration model to grids of estimated daily precipitation from the National Weather Service
Climate Prediction Center’s U.S. Daily Precipitation Analyses.
Phase 5 Atmospheric Deposition
• Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System:
o Replaces Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) in Phase 5
o Provides estimates of nitrogen deposition resulting from changes in precursor emissions from utility, mobile, and industrial sources due to management actions or growth.
Adjusts deposition determined by wet-fall concentration model and precipitation volumes
o Predicts the influence of source loads from one region on deposition in other regions.
o Provides estimates of wet:dry for nitrate and ammonium.
Phase 5 Atmospheric Deposition
Atmospheric Inputs:Of the total NOx deposition to the Chesapeake Bay watershed land area, about 50% originates from emissions in Bay-watershed states: PA = 17%, VA = 10%, MD = 9%, WV = 7%, NY = 5%, DE = 1%OH, NC, NY, KY, IN, TN, MI = 27%Other States in 37-State Area = 24%
Animal Nutrient Balance
VolatilizationPasture
Dairy
Uncollected
Collected
Spring/FallApplication
Daily Application
Crop
Enclosure
BarnyardVolatilization
Storage
VolatilizationVolatilization
Volatilization
RunoffRunoff Runoff
Swine
Layers
Broilers
Turkeys
Horses
Beef
Daily Application
Phase 5 Animal Nutrient Balance
VolatilizationPasture
Dairy
Uncollected
Collected
Spring/FallApplication
Daily Application
Crop
Enclosure
BarnyardVolatilization
Storage
VolatilizationVolatilization
Volatilization
RunoffRunoff Runoff
Swine
Layers
Broilers
Turkeys
Horses
Beef
Daily Application
Phase 5 Animal Nutrient Balance
In Phase 4, there is no direct connection between estimated storage and handling
losses and the hard-wired load from animal feeding operations, i.e., “manure acres”.
VolatilizationPasture
Dairy
Uncollected
Collected
Spring/FallApplication
Daily Application
Crop
Enclosure
BarnyardVolatilization
Storage
VolatilizationVolatilization
Volatilization
RunoffRunoff Runoff
Swine
Layers
Broilers
Turkeys
Horses
Beef
Daily Application
Phase 5 Animal Nutrient BalanceAccounted for in the Watershed Model simulation but, generally, not part of atmospheric deposition
Accounted for in the input decks to the Watershed
Model but, generally, not part of atmospheric
deposition
Phase 5 Animal Nutrient Balance
Ammonia and AmmoniumSources and Emissions
On-Site Wastewater Management Systems(Septic)
Phase 5 Septic Systems and Loads
0.115 0.113
0.404 0.430
0.2850.340
0.330
0.397
0.032
0.0380.020
0.015
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 (Calculated) 2003 (Calculated)
(million s
epti
c sy
stem
s)
NY PA MD VA WV DE
2003 Septic EOS Load = 2003 population * 1990 fraction of population on septic * lbs TN/person edge-of-field * pass-through factor
2003 Septic Systems = (2003 population * 1990 fraction of population on septic / 1990 people/system) – state-reported septic connections BMP
1990 Versus 2003Calculated Septic Systems
Phase 5 Septic Systems and Loads
0.115 0.113 0.113
0.404 0.430 0.430
0.2850.340 0.340
0.330
0.397 0.397
0.032
0.038 0.058
0.0260.020
0.015
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 (Calculated) 2003 (Calculated) 2003 (WV & DE Reported)
(million s
epti
c sy
stem
s)
NY PA MD VA WV DE
• WV reported systems are 52% above what is calculated. • DE reported systems are 29% above what is calculated. • Press reports 460K septic system in MD – compared to 340K systems calculated. • No current system data from NY, PA, MD, and VA.
Phase 5 Septic Systems and Loads
0.115 0.113 0.113 0.113
0.404 0.430 0.430 0.405
0.2850.340 0.340
0.329
0.330
0.397 0.3970.397
0.032
0.038 0.0580.058
0.0260.0260.020
0.015
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 (Calculated) 2003 (Calculated) 2003 (WV & DE Reported) 2003 (After SepticConnection BMP)
(million s
epti
c sy
stem
s)
NY PA MD VA WV DE
• The septic connection BMP reduces the calculated number of systems.
Tributary Strategy WorkgroupDiscussion of Phase 5 Watershed Model
Jeff SweeneyUniversity of Maryland
Chesapeake Bay Program [email protected]
410-267-9844http://www.chesapeakebay.net/
Tributary Strategy Workgroup Phase 5 MeetingChesapeake Bay Program Office
January 26, 2005