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SEEING OPPORTUNITY IN CHANGE

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2 VIEWS OF CHANGE

Resistors Challengers See Risk See Potential Ask Why? Ask Why not? Already is Could be Too small/niche Open space Best customers New customers Maintain position New order

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HOW CAN WE SEE OPPORTUNITY IN CHANGE?

Trends are a way to look at what’s coming, and actively speculate on the

disruption and opportunity that could be available.

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Today, we’ll look at two types:

TRENDS in an industry Near-term opportunities, 12-24 months Illustrate with examples for context Go deep: implications, opportunities  

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Today, we’ll look at two types:

TRENDS that challenged an industry No one has combined peanut butter and chocolate yet

 

6

Today, we’ll look at two types:

TRENDS that challenged an industry No one has combined peanut butter and chocolate yet

  With an exercise called TRENDstorming

An exercise to overlay trends and your category to forsee change and opportunities for disruption

Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission

TRENDstorming

trend + industry LIVING ALONE: Single households are more prevalent

An exercise to overlay trends and your category to forsee change and opportunities for disruption

Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission

TRENDstorming

trend coffee

?

Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission

TRENDstorming

trend coffee

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The shift in power to consumers from brands – consumers dictate the terms (where, how and for how much) of the relationship, rather than brands

trend  2.   ê BRAND AUTHORITY

TREND  

TREND .2 ê  BRAND  AUTHORITY    

TRENDstorm overlays trends and your category to forsee change

NETFLIX REDBOX

Movie Rentals/ Blockbuster

Could Blockbuster have seen change coming? Do you think they should have invested in a diversified model?

Why or why not?

Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission

12  

The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.

trend  1.   CROWDSOURCING

TREND  

TREND .1 CROWDSOURCING

EXAMPLE

KICKSTARTER

Financial services

Kickstarter is part of a rapidly growing ‘social funding’ movement that connects individuals in a voluntary community, giving capital access to projects and people they value

and opening up a whole other way for ideas to get to market.

Copyright , 2013 Fisher College of Business, and Gretchen Goffe- Reproduction & distribution prohibited without written permission

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TRENDS: PAST & PRESENT

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The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.

trend  1.   CROWDSOURCING

TREND  

16  

The shift in power to consumers from brands – consumers dictate the terms (where, how and for how much) of the relationship, rather than brands

trend  2.   ê BRAND AUTHORITY

TREND  

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Fractional ownership or usage of services/things you don’t need all the time.

trend  3.   COLLECTIVE CONSUMPTION

TREND  

18  

Thanks to the continued explosion of touchscreen smartphones, tablets, and the “cloud’, the screen culture will be not only more pervasive but more personal, more immersive and more interactive than ever.

trend  4.   SCREEN CULTURE

TREND  

19  

Consumers take advantage of new technologies and apps to discreetly and continuously track, manage and be alerted to any changes in their personal health.

trend  5.   DIY HEALTH

TREND  

20  

Consumers continue to hunt for deals and discounts, but they will do so with relish. Deals are now about more than just saving money; it’s about the thrill, the pursuit, the control, and the perceived smartness, and thus a source of status too.

trend  6.   DEALER CHIC

TREND  

21  

Will coins and notes completely disappear in 2012. No. But a cashless feature is (finally) upon us, as major players such as MasterCard and Google work to build a whole new eco-system of payments, rewards and offers around new mobile technologies.

trend  7.   CASH-LESS

TREND  

22  

The Maker Movement reflects the technological, political, and economic zeitgeist: the need for a technologically skilled work force, hope for a revival of American manufacturing, concern about STEM education all the while cutting many of the programs in schools that foster these skills – arts, wood shop, metal shop, computer science – to make more room for standardized testing.

trend  8.   MAKER MOVEMENT

TREND  

23  

Anything that makes it downright simple- if not completely effortless- for consumers to contribute to something will be more popular than ever in 2012. Unlocked by the spread of ever smarter sensors in mobile phones, people will not only be able but increasingly willing to broadcast information about where and what they are doing, to help improve products and services.

trend  9.   IDLE SOURCING

TREND  

24  

Brands cede control to users, recognizing and providing a forum for users opinions, reviews, points of view and other content.

trend  10.   USER GENERATED CONTENT

TREND  

25  

Corn is in demand- for fuel, for human food and for animal feed. How will the growing demand for, and consumption of, corn affect us?

trend  11.   INGREDIENT: CORN

TREND  

26  

Brands will increasingly take back all of their products for recycling (sometimes forced by new legislation), and recycle them responsibly and innovatively.

trend  12.   ECO-CYCOLOGY

TREND  

27  

Why (to consumers) brands that behave more humanly, including exposing their flaws, will be awesome.

trend  13.   FLAWSOME

TREND  

28  

It’s never been easier for savvy consumers to resell or trade in past purchases, and unlock the value in their current possessions. Trading in is the new buying.

trend  14.   RECOMMERCE

TREND  

29  

Advanced education via virtual classes becomes more accepted and fills a desire to continue to learn without a campus.

trend  15.   DISTANCE LEARNING

TREND  

30  

Thanks to agribusiness and advanced agricultural science, it was plentiful, cheap, luscious looking…and that’s all that counted. The chemical-free food movement hits the mainstream rather than being derided as merely a fad, a self-indulgent affectation of well-heeled liberals.

trend  16.   SAFE FOOD

TREND  

31  

The ability to crunch tremendous amounts of data to discern trends, patterns and insights that was previously beyond our reach.

trend  17.   BIG DATA

TREND  

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TRENDstorm:    IdenBfy  a  trend  that  combined  with  the  industry  to  change  or  challenge    

TREND .1 CROWDSOURCING

EXAMPLE

KICKSTARTER

Financial services

Kickstarter  is  part  of  a  rapidly  growing  ‘social  funding’  movement    that  connects  individuals  in  a  voluntary  community,  giving  capital  access  to  projects  and  people  they  value    

and  opening  up  a  whole  other  way  for  ideas  to  get  to  market.  

 

Copyright  ,  2013  Fisher  College    of    Business,  and  Gretchen  Goffe-­‐  Reproduc?on  &  distribu?on  prohibited  without  wriCen  permission  

34  

NETFLIX  or  REDBOX  

35  

KICKSTARTER  

36  

KEURIG  

37  

SQUARE  

38  

ZIPCAR  

39  

GROUPON  or  GILT  

40  

iTUNES  U  

41  

WIKIPEDIA  

42  

SHAPEWAYS  

43  

FOURSQUARE  

44  

PANDORA  

45  

SPLUNK  

47  

The practice of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.

trend  1.   CROWDSOURCING

Kickstarter\TREND  

48  

Fractional ownership or usage of services/things you don’t need all the time.

trend  3.   COLLECTIVE CONSUMPTION

Zipcar\TREND  

49  

Consumers embrace life on the go and the small screen becomes even more ubiquitous.

trend  4.   SCREEN CULTURE

Pandora\TREND  

50  

Consumers continue to hunt for deals and discounts, but they will do so with relish. Deals are now about more than just saving money; it’s about the thrill, the pursuit, the control, and the perceived smartness, and thus a source of status too.

trend  6.   DEALER CHIC

Groupon and Gilt\TREND  

51  

Will coins and notes completely disappear in 2012. No. But a cashless feature is (finally) upon us, as major players such as MasterCard and Google work to build a whole new eco-system of payments, rewards and offers around new mobile technologies.

trend  7.   CASH-LESS

Square\TREND  

52  

The Maker Movement also reflects the technological, political, and economic zeitgeist: the need for a technologically skilled work force, hope for a revival of American manufacturing, concern about STEM education all the while cutting many of the programs in schools that foster these skills – arts, wood shop, metal shop, computer science – to make more room for standardized testing.

trend  8.   MAKER MOVEMENT

Shapeways\TREND + Kinkos  

53  

Anything that makes it downright simple- if not completely effortless- for consumers to contribute to something will be more popular than ever in 2012. Unlocked by the spread of ever smarter sensors in mobile phones, people will not only be able but increasingly willing to broadcast information about where and what they are doing, to help improve products and services.

trend  9.   IDLE SOURCING

Foursquare\TREND  

54  

Brands cede control to users, recognizing and providing a forum for users opinions, reviews, points of view and other content.

trend  10.   USER GENERATED CONTENT

Wikipedia\TREND