trends tracker - blueshift · was said to have lost more popularity than it gained, but at a...

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March 30, 2016

Summary of Findings • McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) has rebounded, posting increased visits in March, but still trails December numbers.

Its all-day breakfast continues to taper off. Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s (QSR) Burger King/Tim Hortons and Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) are among those gaining quarter to quarter, while Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen Inc. (PLKI), Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), Dunkin Brands Group Inc.’s (DNKN) Dunkin Donuts and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) have faltered. (p.2)

• Cord-cutting is poised to jump significantly in the next six months. Netflix Inc. (NFLX) has reached nearly 60% of respondents, up 20% from a year ago. Use of Alphabet Inc.’s (GOOG/GOOGL) YouTube has grown 37%, and Amazon.com Inc.’s (AMZN) Amazon Instant Video is up 25% year to year. (p.5)

• Nearly twice as many female respondents said Deckers Corp.’s (DECK) UGG boots have lost the most as those who said it has gained the most in terms of popularity compared with a year ago. UGG’s competition will continue to increase from the likes of VF Corp.’s (VFC) Timberland, Columbia Sportswear Co.’s (COLM) Sorel, Wolverine World Wide’s (WWW) Merrell and L.L. Bean. Only one other brand, Dr. Martens AirWair Group Ltd., was said to have lost more popularity than it gained, but at a smaller ratio than UGG. (p.8)

• Intent to buy New Balance Athletics Inc. and Skechers USA Inc. (SKX) athletic shoes has increased the most among the largest brands, while Nike Inc. (NKE) and Adidas AG (ADDYY) have taken a step back compared with December. Mentions of Under Armour Inc. (UA) were flat. (p.11)

• PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) use is increasing; nearly twice as many respondents are using it more often than those who are using it less often compared with a year ago. PayPal is most commonly used for online payments with retailers, eBay payments, and peer-to-peer transactions or transfers. PayPal is not being used as a mobile wallet or mobile payment in brick-and-mortar retailers or in restaurants. (p.12)

• Specialty grocers have slipped as a grocery shopping destination. The Kroger Co. (KR) trails only Walmart Stores Inc. (WMT) as the primary place for grocery shopping, and it also has leapfrogged Walmart as a destination for organic/healthy food. (p.14)

• AutoZone Inc. (AZO) takes the prize as the most utilized auto parts supplier, nearly twice as likely to be frequented as Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) and O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY). Respondents choose their auto parts store based primarily on location and price, and more respondents are increasing their DIY repairs than those who are decreasing them year to year. (p.16)

• Yelp Inc. (YELP) has overtaken Google as the most trusted site for merchant reviews, while Facebook Inc. (FB) has jumped ahead of Angie’s List Inc. (ANGI) to land in third. Groupon Inc. (GRPN) is a distant fifth, ahead of only LivingSocial Inc. (p.18)

• Energy drink consumption has slowed slightly in the last 12 months, with Red Bull GmbH taking the biggest hit. Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), Mountain Dew’s (PepsiCo Inc./PEP) Kickstart and Starbucks Corp.’s Doubleshot are growing faster than they are shrinking. Living Essentials Marketing LLC’s 5-hour Energy and Rockstar Inc. are shrinking faster than they are growing. (p.19)

• Interest in using virtual reality has risen since January, though the price that respondents are willing to pay and their intent to purchase a system have fallen off. (p.22)

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016

301 Battery Street, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94111 | www.blueshiftideas.com 2

Introduction Welcome to Blueshift Research’s 21st edition of the Trends Tracker. This monthly research survey tracks the most pressing topics affecting U.S. consumers as well as business and investment theses. We monitor trends to see how respondents’ opinions evolve, and frequently update survey questions with new issues that emerge from our research and observations. This month’s Trends Tracker comprises 1,020 respondents who represent a general sample of the U.S. public and who answered questions on March 17 and 18. Blueshift utilized Census data to balance respondents by gender and age so that the sample aligns with the U.S. population. We added four topics to this month’s survey: UGG, PayPal, auto parts suppliers and energy drinks. Topics 1) McDonald’s has rebounded, posting increased visits in March, but still trails December numbers. Its all-day breakfast continues to taper off. Burger King, Tim Hortons and Jack in the Box are among those gaining quarter to quarter, while Popeyes, Buffalo Wild Wings, Dunkin Donuts and Chipotle have faltered.

McDonald’s has turned around a two-month decline in visits, seeing an increase in the number of respondents eating at its establishments in March compared with January and February. That said, those visiting McDonald’s in March represented a 5.6% decline compared with December when the total peaked. McDonald’s all-day breakfast continues to show signs of slowing, at least in the frequency with which respondents are ordering from the menu during non-breakfast times. Daily and weekly visits are down (34.5% and 15.1%, respectively) while monthly and annual visits are up (18.4% and 42%) compared with December. The number of respondents who have not and will not try the all-day breakfast at a non-breakfast time remained the same as three months ago, while those who had not tried it but plan to do so decreased 13.3%. Those who have tried it but will not do it again increased. Fewer respondents (down 3.7%) than in December think McDonald’s is on par with its peers. Still, the number championing McDonald’s over its peers grew while those panning it relative to the category declined. Tim Hortons (33.3%), Jack in the Box (22.4%), Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (BRK.A/B) Dairy Queen (13.2%) and Burger King (5.6%) were among the companies with the biggest jump in customers from December, while Popeyes (29.2%), Buffalo Wild Wings (24.2%), Dunkin Donuts (19.8%) and Chipotle (19.1%) saw the biggest declines from three months ago. At which fast-food/QSRs have you eaten in the past month? Select all that apply.

• 45.7% have eaten at McDonald’s during the past month, down 5.6% (2.7 percentage points) quarter to quarter.

• 33.4% have eaten at Subway, a 3.7% (1.2 percentage-point) increase.

• 26.3% have eaten at Burger King, up 5.6% (1.4 percentage points).

http://blueshiftideas.com/content/category/monthlyconsumersurvey/

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


o Tim Hortons experienced a 33.3% (0.7 percentage-point) increase in visits.

• 25.2% have eaten at Yum! Brands Inc.’s (YUM) Taco Bell, down 6.7% (1.8 percentage points).

• 23% have eaten at Wendy’s Co. (WEN), a 15.1% (4.1 percentage-point) decrease.

• 17.5% have eaten at Panera Bread Co. (PNRA), a 13.4% (2.7 percentage-point) decrease.

• 14% have eaten at Chipotle, down 19.1% (3.3 percentage points).

• 11.4% have not eaten at any fast-food/QSR in the past month, up 0.9% (0.1 percentage point).

• Companies showing the largest increases from three months ago, albeit with small percentage-point changes, are:

o Jack in the Box—up 22.4% (1.5 percentage points) from December.

o Dairy Queen—up 13.2% (1.6 percentage points).

• Companies showing the largest decreases from three months ago, albeit with small percentage-point changes, are:

o Smashburger—down 37.5% (0.9 percentage point) from December.

o Popeyes—down 29.2% (2.6 percentage points).

o Buffalo Wild Wings—down 24.2% (2.4 percentage points).

McDonald’s showed steady growth in attendance each month from July to December. March 2016 represents growth after a two-month decline from the peak in December.

48.4

%

32.2

%

24.9

%

27.0

%

27.1

%

21.9

%

20.2

%

17.0

%

16.2

%

16.7

%

17.3

%

12.1

%

16.7

%

13.1

%

10.2

%

11.5

%

6.7% 9.

9%

6.3% 8.

9%

7.5%

4.6%

2.1% 2.7%

2.4%

1.3%

0.8% 6.

7% 11.3

%

45.7

%33

.4%

26.3

%

25.2

%

23.0

%

19.0

%

17.5

%

17.2

%

14.9

%

14.3

%

14.0

%

13.7

%

13.4

%

12.3

%

9.6%

9.4%

8.2%

7.5%

6.8%

6.3%

6.3%

4.0%

2.8%

1.8%

1.5%

1.2%

0.7%

7.9% 11

.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


How does McDonald’s compare with all other fast-food/QSRs? • 44.8% think McDonald’s is on par with other fast-food/QSRs, down 3.7% (1.7 percentage points) quarter to quarter.

• 21% do not eat at McDonald’s, 10.5% (2 percentage points) more than in December.

• 16.9% think McDonald’s is better than most others or is the best fast-food/QSR, up 3.7% (0.6 percentage point).

• 17.2% think McDonald’s is worse than others or is the worst fast-food/QSR, down 5.5% (1 percentage point).

Have you ordered off of McDonald’s all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time?

• 37.3% have not ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and do not plan to do so.

o Up 0.3% (0.1 percentage point) compared with December.

• 25.4% have not ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time but have plans to do so.

39.5% 42%45% 46.4% 47.2% 48.4%

43.1% 42.3%45.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

McDonald's

Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16

2.4%

13.9%

46.5%

14.5%

3.7%

19.0%

3.4%

13.5%

44.8%

14.3%

2.9%

21.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

It's the best fast-food/QSR

It's better thanmost fast-food/QSRs

It's averagecompared to

other fast-food/QSRs

It's worse thanmost fast-food/QSRs

It's the worst fast-food/QSR

I don't eat atMcDonald's

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


o Down 13.3% (3.9 percentage points) compared with December.

• 27.8% have ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu at McDonald’s during a non-breakfast time and would do it again, up 11.6% (2.9 percentage points) from December.

o However, the number of those who do so daily (down 34.5%) or weekly (down 15.1%) has declined, while those doing it monthly (18.4%) or annually (42%) have increased.

• 3% have ordered off of the all-day breakfast menu during a non-breakfast time and would not do it again.

o Up 42.9% (0.9 percentage point) from December.

2) Cord-cutting is poised to jump significantly in the next six months. Netflix has reached nearly 60% of respondents, up 20% from a year ago. Use of YouTube has grown 37%, and Amazon Instant Video is up 25% year to year.

Respondents who are extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months posted a dramatic increase in number compared with three months ago, jumping 277%. Pay-TV subscriptions are down from three months ago but are higher than a year ago. The number of respondents who canceled their pay-TV service more than a month ago is up from December and the previous year, though fewer respondents canceled their pay-TV service in the last month compared with three months ago.

2.9%5.3%

9.8%6.9%

2.1%

29.3%

37.2%

6.4%

1.9%4.5%

11.6%9.8%

3.0%

25.4%

37.3%

6.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Yes, and I willdo it again

daily

Yes, and I willdo it again

weekly

Yes, and I willdo it againmonthly

Yes, and I willdo it againannually

Yes, but I willnot do it

again

No, but I planon it

No, and I willnot

I have not heard about McDonald’s offering all-

day breakfast

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


Netflix continues to reign supreme as the streaming TV service of choice for 59% of respondents, a 20% increase from a year ago. YouTube (Alphabet/Google) and Amazon Instant Video saw similar growth rates in the last year but still trail Netflix by a significant margin. Meanwhile, Hulu has fallen off, but Hulu Plus has picked up most of its slack. Do you use pay-TV in your household?

• 36.6% use a basic pay-TV service, up 5.2% (1.8 percentage points) compared with a year ago.

o Down 4.9% (1.9 percentage points) from December.

• 31.6% use pay-TV with add-on services, an 11.7% (3.3 percentage-point) increase.


• 15.9% have never had a pay-TV service, down 38.8% (10.1 percentage points).

o Up 25.2% (3.2 percentage points) from December.

• 14.9% canceled their pay-TV service more than a month ago, up 49% (4.9 percentage points).


• 1.1% canceled their pay-TV service in the past month, up 22.2% (0.2 percentage point).

o Down 15.4% (0.2 percentage point) from December.

How likely are you to cancel your pay-TV subscription in the next six months for only online streaming services?

• 18.7% of pay-TV subscribers are very or extremely likely to cancel their pay-TV subscription in the next six months, up 112.5% (9.9 percentage points) compared with three months ago.

o Those extremely likely to cancel jumped 277% (10 percentage points).

28.3%

34.8%

26.0%

0.9%

10.0%

35.2%38.5%

12.7%

1.3%

12.4%

31.6%

36.6%

15.9%

1.1%

14.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Yes, including add-onservices like HBO

Yes, just basic service No, I have never hadpay-TV

No, I canceled mypay-TV subscription in

past month

No, I canceled mypay-TV subscriptionmore than a month

agoMar-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


• Those not at all likely or slightly likely to cancel fell 7.8% (6.1 percentage points).

Which online streaming TV services do you use? Select all that apply.

• 59% use Netflix, up 20.2% (9.9 percentage points) compared with last year.


• 43.7% use YouTube, a 37% (11.8 percentage-point) increase compared with a year ago.


• 25.6% use Amazon Instant Video, up 25.5% (5.2 percentage points) compared with last year.


• 11.7% use Hulu, a 9.3% (1.2 percentage-point) decrease compared with last year.


• 11.3% use Time Warner Inc.’s (TWX) HBO Go, an 18.9% (1.8 percentage-point) increase compared with last year.


• 11.1% use Hulu Plus, up 18.1% (1.7 percentage points) compared with last year.


• 23.3% do not use any online streaming services, 27% (8.6 percentage points) lower than a year ago.


62.2%

16.4%12.6%

5.2% 3.6%

57.2%

14.3%9.9%

5.1%

13.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Not at all likely Slightly likely Moderately likely Very likely Extremely likely

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


3) Nearly twice as many female respondents said Deckers’ UGG boots have lost the most as those who said it has gained the most in terms of popularity compared with a year ago. UGG’s competition will continue to increase from the likes of Timberland, Sorel, Merrell and L.L. Bean. Only one other brand, Dr. Martens, was said to have lost more popularity than it gained, but at a smaller ratio than UGG.

20.8% of 528 female respondents said UGG lost the most among boot brands in terms of popularity compared with a year ago, while 11.9% said UGG gained the most popularity. Dr. Martens is the only other brand to lose more (4.2%) than it gained (2.8%) in terms of popularity. 8.3% of female respondents have bought UGG since August 2015, the brand purchased most, while 6.4% have bought Merrell boots and 4.7% have bought Timberlands. 3.5% of 484 male respondents purchased UGG since August 2015, the fourth most purchased brand after Timberland (12.4%), L.L. Bean (4.5%) and Merrell (3.9%). Nearly two-thirds of our sample (65.2%) have not bought boots since August 2015. Which boot brand has gained the most in terms of popularity since this time last year?

• 11.9% said UGG has gained the most popularity compared with a year ago.

• 4.9% said Timberland has gained the most popularity.

49.1

%

31.9

%

20.4

%

12.9

%

9.5%

9.4%

4.1%

3.9%

3.9%

3.8%

2.8% 6.

1%

31.9

%

57.9

%

42.6

%

23.4

%

14.9

%

10.4

%

9.3%

6.3%

4.6%

2.2% 5.

5%

3.8% 5.

1%

2.0% 3.

7%

1.2%

11.9

%

22.6

%

59.0

%

43.7

%

25.6

%

11.7

%

11.3

%

11.1

%

8.8%

8.3%

6.0%

5.8% 5.2%

4.8%

4.4%

3.8%

3.1%

13.6

%

23.3

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Mar-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


• 3.8% said L.L. Bean has gained the most popularity.

• 3.6% said Sorel was the biggest gainer in popularity.

Which boot brand has lost the most in terms of popularity since this time last year?

• 20.8% said UGG lost the most popularity compared with a year ago.

• 4.2% said Dr. Martens lost the most popularity.

• 2.5% said Wolverine’s Sperry lost the most popularity.

• 1.9% said Timberland lost the most popularity.

11.9%

4.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1%

62.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

UGG Timberland L.L. Bean Sorel Sperry Dr. Martens Merrell Hunter Other I don'tknow

Mar-16

20.8%

4.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6%

66.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

UGG Dr.Martens

Sperry Timberland L.L. Bean Sorel Hunter Merrell Other I don'tknow

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


• 74.8% more respondents said UGG lost popularity than those who said it gained popularity in the last year.

• 50% more respondents said Dr. Martens lost popularity than those who said it gained popularity.

• 575% more respondents said Merrell gained popularity than those who said it lost popularity.

• 300% more respondents said Sorel gained popularity than those who said it lost popularity.

• 158% more respondents said Timberland gained popularity than those who said it lost popularity.

• 124% more respondents said L.L. Bean gained popularity than those who said it lost popularity.

• 28% more respondents said Sperry gained popularity than those who said it lost popularity.

Which brand of boots have you purchased since August 2015? Select all that apply.

• 8.3% have purchased UGG boots in the last eight months.

• 6.4% have purchased Merrell boots.

• 4.7% have bought Timberland boots.

• 4.6% have bought Sorel boots.

• 65.2% have not bought any boots since August.

11.9

%

4.9%

3.8%

3.6%

3.2%

2.8%

2.7%

2.3%

2.1%

62.7

%

20.8

%

1.9%

1.7%

0.9% 2.

5% 4.2%

0.4% 0.

6%

0.6%

66.6

%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

UGG Timberland L.L. Bean Sorel Sperry Dr. Martens Merrell Hunter Other I don'tknow

Gained Popularity Year to Year Lost Popularity Year to Year

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


4) Intent to buy New Balance and Skechers athletic shoes has increased the most among the largest brands, while Nike and Adidas have taken a step back compared with December. Mentions of Under Armour were flat.

Respondents’ intent to purchase athletic shoes from Skechers increased 8.5% (1 percentage point) compared with three months ago. Those planning to buy New Balance shoes rose 12.7% (2.4 percentage points) from December. Nike saw a 15.7% (4.8 percentage-point) decline from December among those expecting to buy its shoes, and Adidas dropped 12.5% (1.7 percentage points). Nike’s lead in the category shrunk, with 25.8% of respondents expecting to buy its shoes in the next six months. Nike was followed by New Balance at 21.3%, Skechers at 12.8%, and Adidas at 11.9%. Under Armour ranked ninth at 5.5%, the same as in December and trailing the likes of Nike’s Converse, Asics Corp. (TYO:7936), Adidas’ Reebok and VF’s Vans. Which brands of athletic shoes do you plan to buy in the next six months? Select all that apply.

• 25.8% plan to buy Nike shoes in the next six months, down 15.7% (4.8 percentage points) compared with December.

• 21.3% plan to buy New Balance shoes in the next six months, up 12.7% (2.4 percentage points).

• 12.8% plan to buy Skechers shoes in the next six months, an 8.5% (1.0 percentage-point) increase.

• 11.9% plan to buy Adidas shoes in the next six months, a 12.5% (1.7 percentage-point) decrease.

• 5.5% plan to buy Under Armour shoes in the next six months, down 1.8% (0.1 percentage point).

• 32% do not plan to buy athletic shoes in the next six months, up 21.7% (5.7 percentage points).

8.3%6.4% 4.7% 4.6% 3.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.7%

13.5%

65.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

UGG Merrell Timberland Sorel L.L. Bean Sperry Hunter Dr. Martens Other None

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


5) PayPal use is increasing; nearly twice as many respondents are using it more often than those who are using it less often compared with a year ago. PayPal is most commonly used for online payments with retailers, eBay payments, and peer-to-peer transactions or transfers. PayPal is not being used as a mobile wallet or mobile payment in brick-and-mortar retailers or in restaurants.

The number of respondents using PayPal significantly more often (5%) than a year ago is nearly the same as those using it significantly less often (5.6%). Still, those claiming PayPal usage of somewhat more (6.4%) and slightly more (9.8%) far outpaced those whose use is somewhat (3.1%) and slightly (1.7%) less year to year. How would you describe your use of PayPal compared with a year ago?

• 21.2% have used PayPal more often compared with a year ago.

o 5% have used it significantly more.

o 6.4% somewhat more.

o 9.8% slightly more.

• 10.4% have used PayPal less often compared with a year ago.

o 5.6% have it significantly less.

o 1.7% somewhat less.

o 3.1% slightly less.

30.6

%

18.9

%

11.8

% 13.6

%

6.8% 7.

6%

6.8%

5.9%

5.6%

4.1%

4.2%

2.0% 2.3%

1.6%

6.9%

26.3

%

25.8

%

21.3

%

12.8

%

11.9

%

7.2%

6.8%

6.6%

5.7%

5.5%

3.3%

3.1%

2.6%

2.0%

1.8%

8.1%

32.0

%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


Where/how do you use PayPal? Select all that apply.

• 38.4% use PayPal for online payments with retailers—70% more than the next most popular answer.

• 22.6% use PayPal for eBay payments, nearly twice as much as the next most popular answer.

• 11.4% use PayPal for peer-to-peer transactions or transfers.

• 9.1% use PayPal for mobile payments for online purchases.

5.0% 6.4%9.8%

29.9%

3.1% 1.7%5.6%

38.5%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%

Significantlymore

Somewhatmore

Slightly more The same Slightly less Somewhat less Significantly less I do not usePayPal

Mar-16

38.4%

22.6%

11.4%9.1% 8.2%

4.6%2.0% 1.3% 1.1%

3.0%

41.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


6) Specialty grocers have slipped as a grocery shopping destination. Kroger trails only Walmart as the primary place for grocery shopping, and it also leapfrogged Walmart as a destination for organic/healthy food.

Specialty grocery stores took the biggest hit, dropping 17% from a year ago as a primary grocery shopping destination. Local grocery stores and big-box retailers essentially stayed the same as a year ago and compared with December. Kroger is the second-most frequented store for grocery shopping, trailing Walmart but ahead of Safeway Inc. (SWY) and Publix Super Markets Inc. (PUSH). Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFM) was a distant tenth, trailing Trader Joe’s, Costco Wholesale Corp. and Aldi. Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s saw increases of nearly 10% in being the primary destination for healthy/organic food purchases, ranking first and second, respectively. Kroger leapfrogged Walmart, placing fifth overall and first among traditional grocery stores in being a destination for healthy/organic food. The Fresh Market Inc. (TFM) increased 70% from December while Walmart decreased 33%. Where do you shop for the majority of your groceries?

• 60.8% primarily shop at local grocery stores, a 1.3% (0.8 percentage-point) increase compared with a year ago.


• 24.2% primarily shop at big-box retailers for groceries, up 2.5% (0.6 percentage point) year to year.

o Down 2% (0.5 percentage point) from December

• 10.9% primarily shop at specialty grocery stores, a 17.4% (3.7 percentage-point) decrease compared with a year ago.


Which store do you frequent most often for your grocery shopping?

• 15.3% go to Walmart most often for grocery shopping.

60.0%

23.6%

13.2%

1.4% 1.8%

60.6%

24.7%

10.4%

1.5% 2.7%

60.8%

24.2%

10.9%

2.6% 1.6%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Local grocery stores(Kroger, Safeway, etc.)

Big-box stores (Walmart,Target, etc.)

Specialty grocery stores(Whole Foods, Trader

Joes, etc.)

Dollar stores (DollarGeneral, Dollar Tree, etc.)

Farmers markets

Mar-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


• 10.1% go to Kroger most.

• 7.8% go to Safeway most.

• 4.5% go to Publix most.

• 2.3% go to Whole Foods most.

Where is the first place you go to buy healthy/organic food?

• 11.6% go to Whole Foods for healthy/organic food, a 9.7% (1.0 percentage-point) increase from December.

• 9.9% go to Trader Joe’s for healthy/organic food, up 9.4% (0.9 percentage point).

• 8.7% go to local grocers/co-ops for healthy/organic food, a 42.1% (2.6 percentage point) increase.

• 6.3% go to farmers markets for healthy/organic food, down 25.8% (2.2 percentage point).

• 4.9% go to Kroger for healthy/organic food, down 1.4% (0.1 percentage point).

• 4.4% go to Fresh Market for healthy/organic food, a 70.4% (1.8 percentage point) increase.

• 3.9% go to Walmart for healthy/organic food, a 33.2% (2.0 percentage point) decrease.

• 22.7% said they do not buy healthy/organic food, up 17.4% (3.4 percentage point) quarter to quarter.

17.1% 15.3%10.1%

7.8%4.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3%

30.5%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


7) AutoZone takes the prize as the most utilized auto parts supplier, nearly twice as likely to be frequented as Advance Auto Parts and O’Reilly. Respondents choose their auto parts store based primarily on location and price, and more respondents are increasing their DIY repairs than those who are decreasing them year to year.

AutoZone is the most frequently used auto parts store, nearly twice as much as second-place Advance Auto Parts and precisely twice that of third-place O’Reilly. Location and price are the two most important factors for respondents when choosing an auto parts store. Quality, customer service and trust are in the second tier, while the amount of inventory is least important. More respondents are doing more of their own car repair and maintenance than those who are doing it less often compared with a year ago. Still, nearly 25% of respondents go exclusively to repair shops while another 14% only go to their car dealerships. Which auto parts store do you frequent most?

• 22.4% use AutoZone.

• 11.7% use Advance Auto Parts.

• 11.2% use O’Reilly.

• 5.8% use Genuine Parts Co.’s (GPC) NAPA.

10.6

%

9.0%

6.1% 8.

5%

5.0%

2.6% 5.

9%

4.1%

3.1% 4.3%

3.3%

17.8

%

19.3

%

11.6

%

9.9%

8.7%

6.3%

4.9%

4.4%

3.9%

3.8%

3.1%

2.6%

2.1%

16.1

%

22.7

%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


Which criterion is most important when choosing your auto parts store?

• 29.1% said location is the most important criterion when choosing an auto parts store.

• 27.4% said price is the No. 1 factor.

• 12.7% said quality of inventory matters most.

• 11.9% prioritize customer service.

22.4%

11.7% 11.2%

5.8% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9%

29.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Mar-16

29.1%27.4%

12.7% 11.9%9.8%

6.4%

2.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Location Price Quality ofinventory

Customerservice

Trust Other Amount ofnventory

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


How much car repair/maintenance are you doing yourself compared with a year ago?

• 14.9% are doing more of their own repairs/maintenance than a year ago, including 4.5% doing so significantly more.

• 9.9% are doing less of their own car repairs/maintenance than a year ago, including 5% doing so significantly less.

• 24.2% have always gone to a mechanic or repair shop for their maintenance needs.

• 14% have always gone to their car dealership for repairs/maintenance.

8) Yelp has overtaken Google as the most trusted site for merchant reviews, while Facebook has jumped ahead of Angie’s List to land in third. Groupon is a distant fifth, ahead of only LivingSocial.

Which review site do you trust the most for consumer reviews on merchants?

• 23.7% trust Yelp for merchant reviews, up 6.8% (1.5 percentage points) compared with December.

• 21.3% trust Google for merchant reviews, down 8% (1.8 percentage points).

• 6.9% trust Facebook for merchant reviews, up 23% (1.3 percentage points).

• 6.6% trust Angie’s List for merchant reviews, up 4.6% (0.3 percentage point).

• 1.9% trust Groupon for merchant reviews, down 22.1% (0.5 percentage point).

• 31.5% do not trust online reviews of merchants, down 4.5% (1.5 percentage points).

4.5% 4.2%6.2%

37.0%

2.4% 2.5%5.0%

24.2%

14.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


9) Energy drink consumption has slowed slightly in the last 12 months, with Red Bull taking the biggest hit. Monster, Mountain Dew’s Kickstart and Starbucks’ Doubleshot are growing faster than they are shrinking. 5-hour Energy and Rockstar are shrinking faster than they are growing.

38% more respondents are consuming fewer energy drinks than those who are consuming more energy drinks compared with a year ago. Those consuming significantly less represent more than double the number of those who are consuming significantly more. Red Bull and Monster are the two leading energy drinks being consumed more often than a year ago. They are also the top two brands being consumed less often year to year. More respondents reported consuming less Red Bull than those who said they are consuming more of the brand. Monster is nearly even with the number of respondents who have increased and decreased their consumption of its drinks. 5-hour Energy and Rockstar are two others seeing a negative consumption trend. Mountain Dew’s Kickstart and Starbucks’ Doubleshot saw the biggest positive disparity in consumption pattern. How would you describe your consumption of energy drinks compared with a year ago?

• 7.8% are consuming more energy drinks than a year ago, including 2% doing so significantly more.

• 10.9% are consuming fewer energy drinks than a year ago, including 5.4% doing so significantly less.

22.2% 23.1%

5.6% 6.3%

2.4%0.7%

6.6%

33.0%

23.7%21.3%

6.9% 6.6%

1.9% 0.6%

7.6%

31.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Yelp Google Facebook Angie’s List Groupon LivingSocial Other I do not trustconsumerreviews

Dec-15 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


Which energy drinks are you drinking more of compared with a year ago? Select all that apply.

• 6.3% are drinking more Red Bull than a year ago.

• 6.2% are drinking more Monster than a year ago.

Which energy drinks are you drinking less of compared with a year ago? Select all that apply.

• 9.5% are drinking less Red Bull than a year ago.

• 5.9% are drinking less Monster than a year ago.

• 4.1% are drinking less 5-hour Energy than a year ago.

2.0% 2.7% 3.1%

12.9%

2.9% 2.6% 5.4%

68.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Significantlymore

Somewhat more Slightly more The same Slightly less Somewhat less Significantly less I do not drinkenergy drinks at

all

Mar-16

6.3% 6.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%4.5%

79.7%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


• 50.8% more respondents have drunk less Red Bull than those who have drunk more of it year to year.

• 57.7% more respondents have drunk less 5-hour Energy than those who have drunk more of it year to year.

• 26.9% more respondents have drunk less Rockstar than those who have drunk more of it.

• 5.1% more respondents have drunk more Monster than those who have drunk less of it.

• 210% more respondents have drunk more Mountain Dew Kickstart than those who have drunk less of it.

• 66.7% more respondents have drunk more Starbucks Doubleshot than those who have drunk less of it.

9.5% 5.9% 4.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4%

80.1%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

Mar-16

6.3%

6.2%

3.1%

3.0%

2.6%

2.6%

1.8%

1.1%

0.8%

0.7%

0.7%

0.4%

0.4% 4.5%

79.7

%

9.5%

5.9%

1.0%

1.8% 4.

1%

3.3%

1.4% 1.

2%

0.9% 1.4%

0.5%

0.2% 0.5%

0.4%

80.1

%

0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

More Year to Year Less Year to Year

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


10) Interest in using virtual reality has risen since January, though the price that respondents are willing to pay and their intent to purchase a system have fallen off.

The percent of respondents very or extremely interested in using virtual reality has increased nearly 15% (2.4 percentage points) from January, but those respondents willing to pay $601 or more (the expected price of Facebook’s Oculus Rift, which is set to begin shipping this month) fell 17% from January. Intent to purchase also has declined. Only 3.9% are very or extremely likely to purchase a virtual reality system for their home in the next six months, down 11.4% (0.5 percentage point) from January.

How interested are you in using virtual reality?

• 18.8% are very or extremely interested in using virtual reality, up 14.6% (2.4 percentage points) from January.

• Those moderately interested grew 1.4% (0.3 percentage point).

• At the same time, those not at all interested (32.5%) rose 1.6% (0.5 percentage point) while those slightly (27.2%) interested declined 10.2% (3.1 percentage points).

How likely are you to buy a virtual reality system for your home in the next six months?

• 3.9% are very or extremely likely to purchase a virtual reality system for their home in the next six months, down 11.4% (0.5 percentage point) from January.

• Those slightly or moderately likely to purchase a system increased incrementally while those not at all likely fell slightly in number.

32.0%30.3%

21.3%

8.1% 8.3%

32.5%

27.2%

21.6%

10.5%8.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Not at all interested Slightly interested Moderately interested Very interested Extremely interested

Jan-16 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


How much would you pay for a home virtual reality system?

• 9.6% would pay $601 or more for a system for their home, down 17.2% (2 percentage points) from January.

• 15.1% would pay between $401 and $600, down 27.1% (5.6 percentage points) from January.

• 75.3% would pay up to $400, up 11.2% (7.6 percentage points) from January.

Report analysis by Reverdy Johnson. The Author(s) of this research report certify that all of the views expressed in the report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities and that no part of the Author(s) compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views in this report. The Author does not own securities in any of the aforementioned companies.

OTA Financial Group LP has a membership interest in Blueshift Research LLC. OTA LLC, an SEC registered broker dealer subsidiary of OTA Financial Group LP, has both market making and proprietary trading operations on several exchanges and alternative trading systems. The affiliated companies of the OTA Financial Group LP, including OTA LLC, its principals, employees or clients may have an interest in the securities discussed herein, in securities of other issuers in other industries, may provide bids and offers of the subject companies and may act as principal in connection with such transactions. Craig Gordon, the founder of Blueshift, has an investment in OTA Financial Group LP.

73.5%

14.6%7.4%

2.8% 1.6%

73.4%

15.0%7.8%

2.4% 1.5%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Not at all likely Slightly likely Moderately likely Very likely Extremely likely

Jan-16 Mar-16

33.5% 34.2%

20.7%

6.2%2.5% 2.9%

38.0% 37.3%

15.1%

3.7%1.9%

4.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

$0 - $200 $201 - $400 $401 - $600 $601 - $800 $801 - $1000 $1001+

Jan-16 Mar-16

TRENDS TRACKER

March 30, 2016


© 2016 Blueshift Research LLC. All rights reserved. This transmission was produced for the exclusive use of Blueshift Research LLC, and may not be reproduced or relied upon, in whole or in part, without Blueshift’s written consent. The information herein is not intended to be a complete analysis of every material fact in respect to any company or industry discussed. Blueshift Research is a trademark owned by Blueshift Research LLC.

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