Trends & Patterns of Land Use Change and International Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa Ephraim NkonyaJawoo KooEdward KatoZhe Guo

International Food Policy Research Institute

SSA – world’s future breadbasket

• While crop yield gaps in other regions has narrowed leading to reduced food production from yield increase, yield gap is SSA is the widest

• About 90% of the remaining 1.8 billion ha of global arable land in developing countries is in LAC and SSA (Bruinsma 2009)

• Recent land grabbing attests to SSA’s future BB role – 66% of 234 million ha acquired by foreign investors came from SSA (Anseeuw, et al 2012)

• But challenges limiting high agricultural productivity in SSA need to be addressed to tap its large potential

SSA’s pattern of land use & its relationship with international aid

• ODA support as % of GDP of recipient country is highest in countries with largest cropland expansion

High deforestation Medium-Low deforestation Forest area increase

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

aid as % of GDP, 1985-95 Deforestation rate, 2001-10 cropland change, 2001-10

Cropland area expansion has predominantly replaced intact forest

East Africa Central Africa West Africa0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Sources of cropland area expansion in SSA, 1980-2000

intact forest Disturbed forest

Sour

ce o

f agr

icul

tura

l lan

d ex

-pa

nsio

n, %

Botswana & DRC offer important lessons for cropland use change in SSA

Botswana DRC

SSACarbon density (tons/ha) 3.83 65.59 18.03Freshwater (m3/capita) 2010 6.87 20.40 7.05GDP per capita current US$ 2010 7426.63 198.71 1337.58Logistics Performance index 2.82 1.27 2.29Government effectiveness 0.42 -1.25 -0.68R&D expenditure as % of Ag GDP 4.0 - 0.6Aid as % of GDP (avg 1991-2010) 1.05 19.08 2.86

What drives Botswana to attaining such favorable outcomes with ltd resources and DRC to poor outcomes while it is endowed with abundant natural resources?

Major drivers of cropland extent & implications

Impact on cropland area

Implications

Ag R&D ↓,↑ More investment in R&D to tap SSA large potential

International aid ↑,↓ More aid required in land based sectors to reach threshold

Access to roads ↑ Road improvement should be accompanied with enhancing environmental regulations

Population density ↑,↓ Boserupian induced intensification

Agricultural export ↓ Remunerative prices enhance intensification

Gov’t effectiveness ↑ Increase capacity of gov’t effectiveness to level to prevent deforestation

Land tenure security ↓ Land security enhances intensification

Poverty & population density

↑ Target dev’t programs to rural poor to increase intensification