Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural

Development Indicators in the COMESA Region

By Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe

ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23- 24,November, 2009

Role of ReSAKSS-ECA Node

• Support COMESA and member states; plus Tanzania (EAC and SADC) in design, implementation, M&E agricultural strategies => CAADP

• Strategic analysis; KM; Capacity building

• Hosted by ILRI in Nairobi• SC chaired by COMESA

sets agenda

Importance of agriculture in the region

• It is the mainstay of COMESA’s rural economy: the majority of the population resides in rural areas, and about 70 % engage in agriculture

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002

Year

% o

f pop

ulat

ion

in a

gric

ultu

re

% Female pop % Male pop % of total pop

Large contribution to GDP…

Period Less than 20% of GDP

20-39.99% of GDP 40% of GDP and above

1984-86 Seychelles, Zambia, Mauritius, and Zimbabwe

Madagascar, Swaziland, Malawi, DRC, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, and Comoros

Burundi, Ethiopia, and Uganda

2000-2003 Seychelles, Mauritius, Swaziland, Eritrea, Zambia, and Zimbabwe

Madagascar, Kenya, Malawi, and Uganda

Tanzania, Sudan, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, Comoros, and DRC

2006 Egypt, Eritrea, and Zambia

Madagascar, Kenya, Burundi Malawi, Uganda, Sudan, and Zimbabwe

Ethiopia, DRC, Tanzania, and Rwanda

Source: African development indicators 2004 in FAO 2006a and World Bank 2008

•Contribution of agriculture to GDP remains large – transformation?

But performance has been mixed…

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Bu

run

di

DR

C

Co

mo

ros

Djib

ou

ti

Eg

ypt

Eri

tre

a

Eth

iop

ia

Ke

nya

Lib

ya

Ma

da

ga

sca

r

Ma

uri

tius

Ma

law

i

Rw

an

da

Su

da

n

Sw

azi

lan

d

Se

ych

elle

s

Ta

nza

nia

Ug

an

da

Za

mb

ia

Zim

ba

bw

e

2003 2007

Source: Compiled by ReSAKSS available at www.resakss.org

Agriculture GDP Growth rate (%) - 2003 vs. 2007

Productivity is low.….

Source: computed from FAOSTAT data

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

Bur

undi

Com

oros

DR

C

Djib

outi

Egy

pt

Erit

rea

Eth

iopi

a

Ken

ya

Liby

a

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mau

ritiu

s

Rw

anda

Sud

an

Sw

azila

nd

Tan

zani

a

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Arg

entin

a

Bra

zil

Chi

na, m

ainl

and

Wor

ld

Eas

tern

Afri

ca +

Nor

ther

n A

mer

ica

+

Asi

a

Mai

ze y

ield

in t

on

nes

/ ha

• In many countries maize productivity is much lower compared to other regions

Food production growth is lower than population

growth

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Bur

undi

Com

oros

DR

C

Djib

outi

Egy

pt

Erit

rea

Eth

iopi

a

Ken

ya

Liby

a

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mau

ritiu

s

Rw

anda

Sey

chel

les

Sud

an

Sw

azila

nd

Tan

zani

a

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Gro

wth

rat

e %

% Food production growth (2000-2005)* Population growth%**

Source: * from AfDB, 2007 and ** most recent figures from World Bank, 2006

Fertilizer use is very low

5

55

105

155

205

255

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Fer

tiliz

er in

ten

sity

Kg

/ha

Asia (excludingMiddle East)

Sub-Saharan Africa

World

Irrigation is limited

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

Buru

ndi

Com

oros

DRC

Djib

outi

Egyp

tEr

itrea

Ethi

opia

Ken

yaLi

bya

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mau

ritiu

sRw

anda

Seyc

helle

sSu

dan

Swaz

iland

Tanz

ania

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

% o

f ir

riga

ted a

rable

lan

d

Proportion of arable land under permanent crops that is irrigated

Averages 1970-2004 FAO, 2006

What is the progress in meeting MDG1 -

halving poverty and hunger by 2015?

Progress towards halving poverty by 2015 in Africa

Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008. In COMESA, only four countries (DRC, Egypt, Swaziland, and Uganda) are on their way to achieving the goal of poverty reduction. Many countries are far from the MDG benchmark for 2008

Progress towards halving hunger by 2015 in Africa

Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008

Many more countries (DRC, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, and Uganda) are on their way towards halving hunger by 2015 but to achieve MDG1, countries need to halve both hunger and poverty. From the previous slide only two countries in COMESA (DRC, and Uganda) appear to be on track.

Region largest recipient of food aid…

• As a result of food insecurity, food aid has been a historical phenomenon in the COMESA region

• Received about 59% of the total food aid deliveries to SSA, North Africa and Middle East between 1988 and 2008

Total deliveries to COMESA (MT) 58,121,771

Total deliveries to SSA, North Africa & Middle East (MT)

98,149,184

Proportion to COMESA % 59.2

Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP

Food aid recipients in the region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Buru

ndi

Com

oros DR

C

Djib

outi

Egyp

t

Eritr

ea

Ethi

opia

Keny

a

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mau

ritiu

s

Rw

anda

Seyc

helle

s

Suda

n

Swaz

iland

Tanz

ania

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Prop

ortio

n of

tota

l foo

d ai

d to

CO

ME

SA (%

)

2007 2008

Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP

Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, DRC received the highest proportion in 2007 and 2008

High food prices have compounded the problem…

• Global food prices started creeping up at Global food prices started creeping up at around the year 2000around the year 2000

• Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline since July, 2008;since July, 2008;

• But international prices are poorly transmitted But international prices are poorly transmitted to domestic markets in the ESA regionto domestic markets in the ESA region

Food price indicesFood price indices

Food Price Index (Jan 2006 = 100)

60

100

140

180

220

Year

Inde

x

Comoros Djibouti Egypt Fao Global Kenya Malawi

Rwanda Seychelles Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Note the decline in global prices

Changes in the

Food Price Index

Trends(%)

Source: FAOSTAT and Country Statistical Offices

Effects of high food prices felt by the poor and net food

buyers• Poor households spend Poor households spend

most of their income on most of their income on food - high food prices food - high food prices imply real incomes imply real incomes declinedecline

• Most farmers in the Most farmers in the region are net food region are net food buyers – do not benefit buyers – do not benefit as producersas producers

Urban poor hardest hit by high food prices……….

• Urban poor who depend on markets were Urban poor who depend on markets were particularly hit hard – riots in a number of particularly hit hard – riots in a number of countriescountries

Progress towards CAADP target in

agricultural public expenditure

Public spending in Africa has historically been very low

compared with other regions

Source: Fan, Shenggen, ed. In World Development report, 2008.

Share of agriculture in GDP (%)

28.824.4

14.4

28.9

15.610.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Agriculture based countries Transforming countries Urbanized countries

1980 2004

Public spending in Agriculture as a share of total public spending (%)

6.9

14.3

8.14

72.7

0

5

10

15

20

Agriculture basedcountries

Transformingcountries

Urbanized countries

1980 2004

•Africa constitutes the majority of agricultural based economies

•Public spending in agriculture based countries is lowest , while their share of Agriculture GDP is highest.

The 10% Budget Allocation target is yet to be met by

majority of the countries in COMESA; But good progress is

being made

5%

10%

Ethiopia

& Malawi

Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius &Rwanda

Madagascar, Swaziland, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia & Zimbabwe

Not only quantity, but also quality is important…

• spending must also be efficient, well-spending must also be efficient, well-targeted and supplemented by targeted and supplemented by investments in non-agricultural sectorsinvestments in non-agricultural sectors

• ReSAKSS work has contributed to ReSAKSS work has contributed to definition of country investment options definition of country investment options for growth and poverty reductionfor growth and poverty reduction

Progress in implementation of

CAADP Round Table in COMESA

Progress in implementation of Round Table as at October, 2009

THANK YOU