Trends in World Trends in World Food and Food and

Nutrition: Nutrition: Implications for Implications for International International

AssistanceAssistance

APOAPO

KUNIO TSUBOTAKUNIO TSUBOTA

Remarkable progress Remarkable progress despite doubled population despite doubled population

1960/61 1970 1980 1990 2000Population 3,019 3,676 4,430 5,252 6,057DES/capita 2,257 2,433 2,535 2,711 2,808GDP/capita 2,588 3,591 4,335 4,994 5,631Life expec. 52 59 63 65 66Source: FAO, WB.

PPopulation:million, DES: Kcal/day, GDP:US$ (1995 constant), life expectancy: opulation:million, DES: Kcal/day, GDP:US$ (1995 constant), life expectancy: yearyear

World Population projection (UN)2015 7,197 million2050 8,918

1969-71

1979-81

1990-92

1995-97Near East andNorth Africa

Latin America andthe Caribbean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

South AsiaEast and South

East Asia

504504

241241

267267

284284

8989

180180

5454

5353

4545

3333

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Millio

ns

Undernourished population Undernourished population in Developing Regions in Developing Regions (million)(million)

Hunger: Declined Hunger: Declined but with considerable regional variationbut with considerable regional variation

Projection for 2030Projection for 2030Kcal per caput per dayKcal per caput per day

　 Actual Projection

　 1969/71

1979/81

1989/91

1997/99

2015 2030

World 2413 2552 2709 2803 2940 3050

All developing C

2113 2312 2525 2681 2850 2980

S-Saharan Africa

2108 2089 2109 2195 2360 2540

N-East/N-Africa 2371 2839 3024 3006 3090 3170

L-America/Carib

2475 2702 2699 2824 2980 3140

South Asia 2067 2084 2334 2403 2700 2900

India 2041 2083 2367 2434 　 　

East Asia 2016 2321 2628 2921 3060 3190

China 1995 2327 2684 3040 　 　

Industrial C 3043 3135 3293 3380 3060 3190

Japan 2697 2709 2821 2779 　 　

Number of Undernourished 2030Number of Undernourished 2030

Composition of food :developing countriesComposition of food :developing countries

Projection for 2030Projection for 2030Annual crop production growth,%Annual crop production growth,%

　 Actual Projection

　 1969-99

1979-99

1989-99

1997/99

2015-30

1997/99

　 　 　 　 -2015 　 -2030

All developing C.

3.1 3.1 3.2 1.7 1.4 1.6

ex.. China 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.8

ex. China and India

2.7 2.6 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.9

S-Saharan Africa

2.3 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.5

N-East/N-Africa

2.9 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.6

L-America/Carib

2.6 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.7

South Asia 2.8 3 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8

East Asia 3.6 3.5 3.7 1.3 1.1 1.2

Industrial C. 1.4 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.9

World 2.1 2 2.1 1.5 1.3 1.4

Crop yield projection 2030Crop yield projection 2030

Goal Target

1. Poverty and hunger

1. Halve the people whose income less than US$1 a day

　 2. Halve the people who suffer from hunger

2. Primary education

3. Ensure that children complete primary schooling

3. Gender equality

4. Eliminate gender disparity in education

4. Child mortality

5. Reduce by 2/3 the under 5 mortality rate

5. Maternal health

6. Reduce by 3/4 the maternal mortality rate

6. HIV/AIDS, other diseases

7. Reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

8. Reverse malaria and other major diseases

7. Environmental sustainability

9. Integrate SD principles into policies

10. Halve the people without safe drinking-water

11. Improve the lives of 100 million slum dwellers

8. Global partnership

12- 18 (skip)

MiIlennium Goals highlight poverty & hungerMiIlennium Goals highlight poverty & hunger

WFS Target unlikely to be metWFS Target unlikely to be met

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

KC

al/D

ay/

pc

1961 1970 1980 1990 1999

Widening Gap: Dietary energy intake by country groupWidening Gap: Dietary energy intake by country group

Least Developed Low-Income WorldSource:

FAO

Calorie intake/caput

Calorie intake/caput

GDP/caputGDP/caput

19701970

20002000

30003000

20002000

Poverty and hunger in 1970 and 2000Poverty and hunger in 1970 and 2000Improved on average but hotspots left behindImproved on average but hotspots left behind

S-S S-S AfricaAfrica

S-AsiaS-Asia

East East AsiaAsia

L-AmericaL-America

S-E AsiaS-E Asia

Who are suffering from hunger?Who are suffering from hunger?

Who are left behind?Who are left behind?Poverty/hunger factors Poverty/hunger factors

interlockedinterlocked

Factor Succeeded Left behind

RegionEast S-E Asia, LA, Oil producing

SS Africa, SW Asia, the Caribbean

District Urban, CoastalMountain, landlocked, small islands

Age Young, middle-age adult, Aged, children

Education HigherNon or primary education only

Gender Men Women

Assets Landowner, Capitalists Landless

Class Higher cast, Lower or out-cast

OccupationBanker, Civil servant, Office workers

Farmer, Fisherman, Nomads

Agriculture offers a majority of Agriculture offers a majority of

workplaces in developing countriesworkplaces in developing countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

OECD Low income LDC World East Asia &Pacific

Sub-SaharanAfrica

South Asia LatinAmerica &Caribbean

Middle East& North

Africa

But rough road aheadBut rough road ahead……

agriculture and rural development remain agriculture and rural development remain important for poverty and hunger reduction important for poverty and hunger reduction but tasks ahead seem more complicated but tasks ahead seem more complicated and difficult than ever because:and difficult than ever because: Hotspots are concentrating more on the specific Hotspots are concentrating more on the specific

regions/ specific groups of people, regions/ specific groups of people, Productivity gap is widening as technology advances,Productivity gap is widening as technology advances, Global market tends to penalize poor farmers more,Global market tends to penalize poor farmers more, International support is declining, and inter alia,International support is declining, and inter alia, Fundamentals for growth have not been generated yet Fundamentals for growth have not been generated yet

Productivity differences widen due to Productivity differences widen due to technological developmenttechnological development

World Commodity PricesWorld Commodity Prices

Green revolution visited East and South-East Asia Green revolution visited East and South-East Asia but not fully South Asia and at all yet Africabut not fully South Asia and at all yet Africa

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

Gra

in Y

ield

: to

n/h

a

Sub-Sahara & South Africa

East & South East Asia

South Asia

ODA for Agriculture has been declining both in value and %

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

US

Mil

lio

ns

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Agricultural ODA Share of Agriculture in total

　 Under-nourished

GDP p.c.Food prod. Index 89-91=100

Food shortage reported 80-03

Major cause

　 av.95-97,99-01

00-02 90/92-00/02 00-02 01/61 Human naturel 　

　 % 95US$ % p.a. 　 times 　 　 　

Somalia 72 .. .. .. .. 13 20 CF

Congo, D.R. 69 92 -7.2% 86 1.7 12 0 CF

Afghanistan 68 .. .. .. .. 4 4 CF

Burundi 67 141 -3.8% 93 1.5 10 2 CF

Eritrea 62 157 .. 116 .. 6 10 CF

Mozambique 58 209 4.3% 127 1.6 14 11 CF

Haiti 55 349 -3.2% 102 1.5 .. .. GV

Angola 52 578 .. 172 2.3 23 7 CF

Ethiopia 50 121 2.4% 153 .. 11 22 CF

Zambia 49 414 -1.1% 107 2.4 0 12 GV

Cent.Africa.R 48 337 -0.3% 146 3.2 1 1 CF

Sierra Leone 46 158 -5.7% 84 1.4 13 2 CF

Tanzania, UR 46 199 .. 113 2.8 4 12 CF

Rwanda 46 280 -0.1% 117 3.0 10 4 CF

Cambodia 42 402 .. 152 1.9 1 14 CF

Chad 42 218 -0.9% 151 2.1 3 9 CF

Zimbabwe 42 566 -1.2% 109 2.3 2 6 CF

Liberia 40 194 2.2% .. .. 14 0 CF

Mongolia 40 434 -0.1% 92 1.2 11 11 EP

Kenya 39 325 -0.7% 122 3.1 2 10 　

　 Under-nourished people GDP p.c. Food prod. index (89-91 = 100)

Aid p.c.Major cause of success

Country99-21 99-21 reduction

%, 20 ys00-02 70/71-00/02 00-02 01/61 80-02 Av. 　

　 Million % 　 95US$ % p.a. 　 times curr.US$ 　

Nigeria 9.1 8 -82% 253 -0.4% 155.8 3.4 1.5 FP

Ghana 2.4 12 -81% 418 -0.4% 181.2 3.1 30.1 FP

Indonesia 12.6 6 -77% 1037 4.1% 123.6 3.8 7.2 FP,EG

Burkina Faso 1.9 17 -73% 275 1.3% 157.9 3.6 35.8 FP

Namibia 0.1 7 -72% 2196 .. 96.8 1.2 68.9 PD

Mauritania 0.3 10 -71% 498 0.1% 108.3 1.5 107.3 PD

Mali 2.4 21 -65% 296 0.4% 128.6 2.6 43.5 FP,PD

Nepal 3.8 17 -64% 243 1.7% 135.8 2.9 18.3 FP

Ecuador 0.6 4 -64% 1755 1.1% 153.8 2.8 15.5 FP

China 135.3 11 -63% 883 7.1% 185.9 6.0 1.5 FP,EG

Myanmar 3.2 7 -63% .. .. 176.5 3.7 5.2 FP

Egypt 2.3 3 -63% 1234 3.2% 158.2 4.0 39.7 FP,EG

Lebanon 0.1 3 -63% 2873 .. 108.9 3.1 52.2 FP

Peru 2.9 11 -61% 2339 -0.1% 175.0 3.2 16.4 FP

Benin 1 16 -57% 430 0.7% 173.9 4.0 38.7 FP

Gambia 0.4 27 -53% 367 0.5% 127.2 1.4 73.1 PD

Chad 2.7 34 -51% 218 -0.6% 151.2 2.1 30.6 PD

Mauritius 0.1 5 -50% 4363 .. 109.0 1.4 39.0 PD

Gabon 0.1 7 -46% 4298 0.5% 116.7 2.3 85.7 　

India 213.7 21 -45% 478 2.8% 131.8 2.8 2.1 FP,EG

Most successful countries: Stories varyMost successful countries: Stories vary

Strategy for effective assistanceStrategy for effective assistance(for SS Africa, SW Asia) (for SS Africa, SW Asia)

Make best effort for peace and social stability Make best effort for peace and social stability

Avoid investment assistance that can be destructed by the Avoid investment assistance that can be destructed by the

civil strife and bad governance and policies civil strife and bad governance and policies

Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor

through HRD, R&D, and extension through HRD, R&D, and extension

More efforts to increase local staples/livestock More efforts to increase local staples/livestock

(research,TA) (research,TA)

Strengthen group activities and social safety net through Strengthen group activities and social safety net through

community developmentcommunity development

Encourage knowledge sharing among themselves for Encourage knowledge sharing among themselves for

generating new, active, self-relying mind-set. generating new, active, self-relying mind-set.

Utilize more non-governmental channels including NGOs Utilize more non-governmental channels including NGOs

　 Undernourished people

GINI index

GDP p.c.Food Prod. Index

Aid p.c.

Agri in total emplymt.

Rural share in poverty

Food shortage 80-03

Major cause

　99–01

av.95-97,99-

01

Latest 00-02 90/92-00/02 01/61 80-02 Av. 1990 Latest Hum. nat. 　

　 million

% 　 95US$ % p.a. times curr.US$ % % yr yr 　

India 213.7 21 32.5 478 3.9% 2.8 2 69.1 76% 0 0 Pop

China 135.3 12 44.7 883 8.7% 6.0 2 53.5 64% 0 0 Pop

Bangladesh 44.1 35 31.8 385 3.1% 2.4 13 66.4 80% 0 9 Pop

Congo, D.R. 38.3 69 .. 92 -7.2% 1.7 10 67.8 .. 12 0 CF

Pakistan 26.8 19 33.0 517 1.1% 4.4 10 51.1 74% 0 0 　

Ethiopia 26.4 50 30.0 121 2.4% .. 14 .. 86% 11 22 CF

Philippines 16.8 23 46.1 1,188 1.1% 3.3 12 45.2 57% 0 0 　

Brazil 15.6 10 58.5 4,632 1.4% 5.2 1 22.8 35% 0 0 SoC

Afghanistan 15.3 68 .. .. .. .. 9 70.3 .. 4 4 CF

Tanzania, UR

15.2 46 38.2

199 .. 2.8 34 .. 74% 4 12 CF

Viet Nam 15.1 20 36.1 391 .. 4.0 8 .. 85% 0 9 　

Indonesia 12.6 6 34.3 1,037 2.3% 3.8 7 55.9 .. 0 3 　

Thailand 11.9 20 43.2 2,898 3.1% 3.5 11 64.0 95% 0 0 　

Kenya 11.5 39 44.5 325 -0.7% 3.1 26 19.1 68% 2 10 　

Mozambique 9.7 58 39.6 209 4.3% 1.6 52 82.7 70% 14 11 CF

Nigeria 9.1 8 50.6 253 -0.3% 3.4 2 .. 60% 0 0 　

Sudan 7.7 24 .. 319 3.0% 3.0 24 69.5 .. 4 3 　

Korea D.P.R 7.5 33 .. .. .. .. 3 38.0 .. 4 8 EP

Angola 6.4 52 .. 578 .. 2.3 23 74.5 .. 23 7 CF

Somalia 6.2 72 .. .. .. .. 49 75.3 .. 13 20 CF

Strategy for effective assistanceStrategy for effective assistance(for other developing regions) (for other developing regions)

Encourage economic growth, market reformEncourage economic growth, market reform

diversification of rural activities and Promote better diversification of rural activities and Promote better

processing and marketingprocessing and marketing

TA for reducing risks such as avian influenzaTA for reducing risks such as avian influenza

Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor Concentrate more on capacity building of rural poor

through HRD, R&D, and extension through HRD, R&D, and extension

Strengthen group activities and social safety net Strengthen group activities and social safety net

through community development. through community development.

Promote sustainable agricultural practices Promote sustainable agricultural practices

Improve rural infrastructure Improve rural infrastructure

Utilize more non-governmental channels including Utilize more non-governmental channels including

NGOs and private sectorsNGOs and private sectors

FINFIN

It is humankind that is responsible for having It is humankind that is responsible for having imposed hunger on itself for so long, imposed hunger on itself for so long,

but humankind is also capable of eliminating but humankind is also capable of eliminating this burden (SOFA 2000)this burden (SOFA 2000)

APOAPO ：：TsubotaTsubota