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© 2015 IHS
Presentation
ihs.com
IHS AUTOMOTIVE
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
IHS Automotive Customer Briefing – Frankfurt | 17 June 2015
Mario Franjicevic
Senior Analyst
+49 6920973332
© 2015 IHS 2
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
First and Last Name in Bold, Title, +1 xxx xxx xxxx, [email protected]
+18% Growth, of the global automotive
production during the next five years
© 2015 IHS 4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
en
+15M
Global Light Vehicle Forecast
Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast
© 2015 IHS 5
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ione
n Europe
North AmericaJapan/KoreaGreater ChinaMiddle East/AfricaSouth AmericaSouth Asia
today
Traditional OEMs
work their ways
East- or Off-
Shore, closer to
final markets
North America,
boosted by export,
industry
restructured,
increased global
integration
Japan: continues
to focus on luxury
efforts.
Korea: exports
balanced against
regional
expansion
EU: restructuring
delayed by
scrappage
programs, political
wranglings and
labour rigidities
China: Majority of
efforts are
intrinsically
focused – exports
will emerge later
Global Light Vehicle Forecast
Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast by Region
© 2015 IHS
Presentation Name / Month 2014
6
50% of light vehicle production growth from
2014 until 2020 is coming from China.
© 2015 IHS 7
Urbanization,
traffic jams and
nox emissions
The average age of
a new car buyer is
gradually
increasing, with
decreasing birth
rates
New traffic and
mobility concepts
threaten the new
car sales market
Household budget
spending shift to
lifestyle,
technology and
fashion
NEW TRENDS IN
THE OLD WORLD
New trends are decelerating new car sales
growth dynamics in mature markets.
© 2015 IHS 8
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ion
en
Production
Sales
Restructuring
delayed by
scrappage
programs, political
wrangling and labor
rigidities
New OEMs have
‘skipped’ to C/E EU
investment
Traditional OEMs
working their way
east or off-shore,
closer to final
markets
Europe is quietly
transforming from
an import to an
export market.
Source: IHS
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
Europe (without Russia*) Sales & Production *Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
Sales peak in 2007 is „history“
© 2015 IHS 9
71% 29%
Growth Sales
2014-2020
Share of
Import
(11%)
2014
Production
In Europe
13.3%
13.0% 7.2%
20.4%
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
Europe – Mainstream vs. Premium Brands
80% 2014
Sales
In Europe 20%
Growth Production
2014-2020 10.8%
7.0% 45.0%
12.6%
Share of
Export
(27%)
© 2015 IHS 10
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
others
N.America
China
Europe
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
others
N.America
China
Europe
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
others
N.America
China
Europe
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
German Premium Brands invest in Export markets
© 2015 IHS 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
others
N.America
China
Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
others
N.America
China
Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
others
N.America
China
Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
others
N.America
China
Europe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
others
N.America
China
Europe
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
European Premium Brands invest in Export markets
© 2015 IHS 12
Central Europe
0,98
-3,14
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8
West Europe
1,14
-0,16
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8
1,70
-0,49
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8-12%* +31%* +33%*
Since the peak
in 2007 until 2015,
Europe* has neither increased
nor reduced its capacities,
+/-0.0%
*Capacity change from 2007 to 2015
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
Europe – Plant Capacity Evolution 2007-2015
© 2015 IHS 13
1,22
-0,51
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8
0,64 -0,10
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8
0,99
-0,23
-3,2
-2,2
-1,2
-0,2
0,8
1,8+4%* +13%* +16%*
From 2015 until 2020
IHS expects an increase of
capacities in Europe by:
+7.8% (2.015.000 units)
*Capacity change from 2015 to 2020
Central Europe West Europe
Europe will only account for 12%
of the additional global capacity growth
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
Europe – Plant Capacity Forecast 2015-2020
© 2015 IHS 14
+1.570.000
+162.000
+401.000
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
European OEMs plant capacity balance 2015-2020
© 2015 IHS 15
+202.000
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
Global plant capacity balance in Europe 2015-2020
+1.570.000
© 2015 IHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
E + F
D
C
B
A
16
10%
5%
27%
39%
19%
10%
7%
28%
40%
15%
9%
7%
30%
40%
14%
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
European* Sales by Segment *without Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
© 2015 IHS
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
E+F
D
C
B
A
17
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
European* Sales by Segment, import ratio *without Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan
© 2015 IHS 18
Trends in European Light Vehicle Production
European B-SUV growth
Nissan Juke
Opel Mokka
Renault Captur
Peugeot 2008
Jeep Renegade Fiat 500X
Suzuki Vitara
Audi Q1 (2016)
Mini Countryman VW Polo SUV
(2017)
Toyota B-SUV (2016)
Seat Ibiza SUV (2017)
© 2015 IHS 19
2.Spain: Several investments support strong recovery:
Ford, Opel, Renault, Nissan, PSA
3.Russia: Strong domestic demand combined with a
protectionist industrial framework lift production
1.Germany: Product offensive and exports offset future
overseas localizations
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Millio
ns
Region by Region Market Outlook
Quiz: Eurovehicle Car Contest (Top 10 in 2020)
10. Italy: A bet on exports (Alfa, Maserati, Jeep)
4.France: Conscious move out despite Nissan support
5.UK: Expansion of JLR and Japanese transplants
6.Turkey: concentration on light commercial vehicles, hub
for Europe and Middle-East /Africa
7.Czech Republic: benefits not only from Skoda growth but
from Hyundai Motor group involvment
8.Poland: incrleased localizazation by FCA, GM and
Volkswagen, latter in the commercial vehicle segment
9.Slovakia: VW Group, PSA and Hyundai with a very
balances production presence
© 2015 IHS 20
Region by Region Market Outlook
Summary
High Export
Ratio
B- and
C-Segment
growth
Increasing
localization
Cheaper labour
market imports
Chances Risks
Platform
modularization
Risks and Chances for the European Production region…
…will be driven by the increased platform modularization
© 2015 IHS 21
Region by Region Market Outlook
Summary
High Export
Ratio
B- and
C-Segment
growth
Increasing
localization
Cheaper labour
market imports
Chances Risks
Platform
modularization
Risks and Chances for the European Production region…
…will be driven by the increased platform modularization
© 2015 IHS 22
Region by Region Market Outlook
Summary
High Export
Ratio
B- and
C-Segment
growth
Increasing
localization
Cheaper labour
market imports
Chances Risks
Platform
modularization
Risks and Chances for the European Production region…
…will be driven by the increased platform modularization