trends in enrolments

1

Trends in Enrolments

Three major events

•Impact of middle schooling•Impact of universal prep•Impact of the GFC (Global Financial Crisis)

2

Sector-wise things look pretty good

• Independent school enrolments are increasing

3

• Independent school marketshare is increasing

4

The ‘market’ is increasing

5

The Future – looks good too

6

Forecast Growth in Children Aged 4-16,

2006-2011 and 2011-2016

7

BUT• While the future looks good at the State

level.....– Just like some States have growth and some

have decline forecast, areas of the State are also experiencing differences.......

– Its knowing what's happening where and when that's important.

8

And• There are a couple of other things you need to

be aware of:– What has happened to Independent school

marketshare following the introduction of ‘universal’ prep

– What increased middle school intakes, and increased Independent school participation in primary, may mean for secondary intakes

– What has happened to enrolment levels as a consequence of the “GFC”…it too has had an impact.

9

The following information is to help answer these questions….

• To make it easier (and more specific to your school)– Independent schools have been grouped into regions,

based on ABS’s Statistical Subdivisions (SSDs).– In some cases a number of SSDs have been grouped

together for reporting purposes – in order to ensure confidentiality of individual school enrolments.

– You have a list showing which region your school belongs in.

– The following gives an idea of the areas:

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Toptwo-thirds

11

Brisbane Metro

12

SouthernSEQ

13

Northern SEQ

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Part 1: Enrolment Patterns• Enrolments are for 2003-2008 (Commonwealth Census)• Data excludes distance education students and special schools• There is a ‘data-break’ in enrolment numbers with the half-cohort in

2007. This means:– P-12 enrolments can’t be compared pre 2007 to post 2007– P-7 enrolments can’t be compared pre 2007 to post 2007– Year 8-12 can be compared as they will not be impacted until the half

cohort enters Year 8• Key to future trends is looking at the major intake years – Prep and

Year 8….if these are increasing it’s good!– However, prep enrolments are ‘unreliable’ with a half cohort in 2007,

followed by a full cohort….so Year 1 enrolments from 2003-2007 are the best indicator currently available for trends in numbers of students entering the education system.

– Year 8 hasn’t been impacted – so we can look at trends from 2003-2008

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P-12 Growth

16

Average Annual Rate of Growth, P-12

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An alternative picture

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The alternative picture

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Where future growth is likely…Year 1 enrolments provide an indication…compare annual growth rates of Year 1 to Year 8….where are rates slowing….

P-12 Year 1 Year 82003-2006 2007-2008 2003-2007 2003-08

Number % pa Number % pa Number % pa Number % paBeaudesert Shire Part A & Ipswich City 3070 3.1% 650 1.9% 201 1.7% 297 2.3%Bundaberg 603 1.6% 66 0.5% -7 -0.2% 64 1.1%Caboolture Shire 711 1.1% 173 0.8% 145 1.9% 84 1.0%Cairns City Part A 1882 2.8% 653 2.7% 217 2.9% 283 2.9%Central West -86 -1.7% -2 -0.1% -35 -5.1% 1 0.2%Darling Downs SD Bal 142 0.3% 135 0.7% -118 -1.9% 57 0.8%Far North SD Bal & North West -235 -0.3% -113 -0.4% 46 0.5% -90 -0.9%Fitzroy SD Bal 245 0.6% 265 2.0% -21 -0.5% 18 0.4%Gladstone 612 2.3% 11 0.1% 105 3.7% 30 0.8%Gold Coast East & Gold Coast West 5056 2.6% 1499 2.1% 300 1.5% 771 2.8%Gold Coast North 109 0.4% 239 2.3% 79 2.5% 131 2.8%Gold Coast SD Bal, Lower West Moreton & Upper West Moreton

896 2.1% 332 2.3% -24 -0.5% 224 3.7%

Hervey Bay City Part A 821 3.5% 237 2.8% 63 2.6% 171 4.8%Logan City -494 -0.5% -56 -0.2% -144 -1.3% 104 0.8%Mackay City Part A & Mackay SD Bal 1220 1.5% 148 0.5% 107 1.2% 48 0.4%Northern SD Bal -198 -0.7% 1 0.0% -20 -0.7% 12 0.3%Northwest Inner Brisbane, Southeast Inner Brisbane & Inner Brisbane

3288 1.6% 928 1.3% 360 2.0% 544 1.6%

Northwest Outer Brisbane 1764 1.2% -161 -0.3% -12 -0.1% 82 0.5%Pine Rivers Shire & Redcliffe City 2041 2.2% 692 2.1% 215 2.0% 282 2.5%Redland Shire 857 1.3% 140 0.6% -24 -0.3% 134 1.5%Rockhampton 486 1.1% -215 -1.5% 30 0.7% 19 0.3%South West 111 0.8% -89 -2.1% -53 -3.0% -3 -0.2%Southeast Outer Brisbane 2246 2.0% 322 0.8% 172 1.4% 264 1.7%Sunshine Coast 1972 1.8% 851 2.2% 187 1.7% 325 2.0%Sunshine Coast SD Bal 318 1.1% 102 1.1% 63 2.0% -14 -0.4%Toowoomba 922 1.3% 86 0.4% 39 0.6% 119 1.2%Townsville City Part A & Thuringowa City Part A 1841 2.2% 649 2.2% 210 2.4% 226 1.9%Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal 638 0.8% 77 0.3% -4 0.0% 88 0.9%TOTAL 30,838 1.5% 7, 620 1.1% 2,077 1.0% 4,271 1.5%

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Part 2 - Marketshare• There are generally two ways a school (or sector)

increases enrolments…– Through catering for enrolment growth in the area– Through capturing marketshare

• Reporting of marketshare is not impacted by the half-cohort in prep…..except in as much as there has been a major shift in marketshare

• Overall the Independent sector tends to have gained marketshare….but not everywhere…– In your school’s area has the Independent sector

gained (or lost) marketshare to Catholic and/or State schools?

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Marketshare Changes, 2003-2008 (P-12)

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Year 8 Marketshare, Changes 2003-2008

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Prep Marketshare, Changes 2003-2008

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A different way of looking at Prep…comparing marketshare Prep in 2008 to Year 1 marketshare

in 2007

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Who has gained marketshare…and where

Green = marketshare gainsRed = marketshare lossesBlank = no change (usually due to the sector having no schools in the area)

Catholic Independent StateTotal (P-12) P-7 Prep Year 8-12 Year 8 Total (P-12) P-7 Prep Year 8-12 Year 8 Total (P-12) P-7 Prep Year 8-12 Year 82003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008 2003-2008

Beaudesert Shire Part A & Ipswich City 3.8% 4.2% 12.4% 2.2% 4.8% 1.5% 2.1% 0.4% -0.9% 1.0% -5.2% -6.3% -12.8% -1.3% -5.8%Bundaberg 2.2% 3.5% 8.7% -0.1% 2.8% 3.6% 4.4% 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% -5.8% -7.9% -11.0% -2.3% -4.1%Caboolture Shire 1.6% 1.1% 6.3% 2.3% 5.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 2.7% -2.2% -1.9% -6.5% -2.9% -8.0%Cairns City Part A 4.3% 4.8% 20.9% 3.4% 6.7% 0.1% -0.1% -2.3% 0.2% -0.2% -4.4% -4.8% -18.6% -3.6% -6.5%Central West 2.1% 2.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.1% -2.6% -11.7% 0.0% 0.0%Darling Downs SD Bal 1.1% 3.2% 10.8% -2.5% -2.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% -0.3% 1.4% -1.5% -3.8% -11.6% 2.8% 1.4%Far North SD Bal & North West 0.4% 0.0% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% -0.5% -0.2% -0.6% -1.3% -1.1% 0.1% 0.2% -4.9% -0.1% 0.7%Fitzroy SD Bal 3.2% 3.9% 12.4% 0.9% 5.3% 0.9% 1.1% 3.3% 0.5% 1.6% -4.0% -5.0% -15.7% -1.3% -6.9%Gladstone 5.0% 7.9% 18.9% 0.4% 4.6% 0.6% 1.0% -0.9% 0.3% 0.4% -5.6% -8.8% -18.0% -0.7% -5.0%Gold Coast East & Gold Coast West 1.3% 1.7% 12.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 1.3% -2.9% -1.1% -0.3% -1.9% -3.1% -10.0% 0.4% -1.0%Gold Coast North 1.3% 1.1% 3.4% 1.5% -0.9% 7.6% 6.8% 2.4% 8.6% 12.0% -8.9% -7.9% -5.7% -10.1% -11.1%Gold Coast SD Bal, Lower West Moreton & Upper West Moreton

0.6% 1.3% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 4.3% -2.4% -2.4% -12.9% -2.7% -4.3%

Hervey Bay City Part A 9.8% 6.3% 16.1% 15.5% 7.3% -0.8% 0.1% -4.0% -2.8% -3.1% -9.0% -6.4% -12.1% -12.7% -4.2%Logan City 0.0% 0.9% 11.2% -1.4% -1.9% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 3.9% 4.1% -2.9% -2.9% -13.1% -2.5% -2.2%Mackay City Part A & Mackay SD Bal 2.3% 3.2% 12.8% 0.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% -0.9% 2.1% 0.9% -3.5% -3.8% -11.9% -2.7% -3.0%Northern SD Bal 2.3% 3.1% 15.0% 0.7% 5.5% 0.5% 0.0% -2.7% 1.2% -0.8% -2.8% -3.1% -12.3% -1.9% -4.7%Northwest Inner Brisbane, Southeast Inner Brisbane & Inner Brisbane

1.6% 2.4% 24.3% 0.8% 0.1% -0.4% 0.8% -1.3% -1.2% -1.8% -1.1% -3.3% -23.0% 0.3% 1.7%

Northwest Outer Brisbane 1.2% 2.7% 17.2% -1.6% 0.3% 0.8% 1.1% 3.0% -0.1% -0.1% -1.9% -3.8% -20.3% 1.7% -0.2%Pine Rivers Shire & Redcliffe City 0.5% 1.5% 12.6% -1.3% -1.9% 4.5% 3.6% 1.8% 5.3% 4.1% -4.9% -5.1% -14.4% -4.0% -2.2%Redland Shire 0.5% 1.3% 13.6% -0.6% 0.4% 2.9% 2.1% -4.2% 3.6% 5.4% -3.4% -3.5% -9.4% -3.0% -5.8%Rockhampton 2.8% 3.7% 18.4% 0.9% 2.2% 2.9% 3.6% 6.5% 1.5% 0.8% -5.7% -7.3% -25.0% -2.4% -3.0%South West 3.4% 4.6% 28.8% 2.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.4% -4.6% -28.8% -2.8% -3.1%Southeast Outer Brisbane 1.4% 2.0% 16.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.9% 3.5% 5.5% -0.7% -0.4% -3.3% -5.5% -21.7% 0.3% -0.2%Sunshine Coast 3.6% 3.2% 12.6% 4.2% 4.7% 2.2% 3.7% -0.5% -0.3% -1.3% -5.8% -6.9% -12.1% -3.9% -3.4%Sunshine Coast SD Bal 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 7.9% 5.4% 5.7% 9.1% -7.2% -7.9% -5.4% -5.7% -9.1%Toowoomba 0.4% 2.4% 12.0% -2.6% -4.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% -0.7% 1.3% -1.0% -3.8% -12.3% 3.4% 2.9%Townsville City Part A & Thuringowa City Part A

3.1% 3.2% 19.3% 2.9% 1.4% 2.5% 1.5% -1.6% 3.5% 2.1% -5.5% -4.7% -17.7% -6.5% -3.5%

Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal 0.8% 1.4% 6.4% -0.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 2.3% -2.2% -2.6% -7.6% -1.3% -4.1%TOTAL 1.9% 2.5% 13.9% 0.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% -3.5% -4.5% -14.4% -1.4% -2.6%

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Difference between Prep 2008 marketshare compared to Year 1 marketshare 2007

Overall a slight increase in State school marketshare – 1.3%.

Highest increase in State school marketshare suggested in Gold Coast North.

Catholic Independent StateBeaudesert Shire Part A & Ipswich City -0.2% -0.1% 0.3%Bundaberg -1.2% -1.4% 2.7%Caboolture Shire -0.8% -1.0% 1.8%Cairns City Part A 0.0% 0.1% -0.1%Central West 0.3% 0.0% -0.3%Darling Downs SD Bal -1.5% 0.4% 1.1%Far North SD Bal & North West -3.9% -0.2% 4.1%Fitzroy SD Bal -1.3% 0.4% 1.0%Gladstone 0.1% -1.9% 1.7%Gold Coast East & Gold Coast West -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%Gold Coast North -2.1% -4.8% 6.9%Gold Coast SD Bal, Lower West Moreton & Upper West Moreton

2.1% 0.3% -2.4%

Hervey Bay City Part A 1.4% 0.1% -1.6%Logan City -0.7% -2.1% 2.8%Mackay City Part A & Mackay SD Bal 1.6% -1.0% -0.6%Northern SD Bal -2.2% -0.1% 2.3%Northwest Inner Brisbane, Southeast Inner Brisbane & Inner Brisbane

-2.3% -0.3% 2.6%

Northwest Outer Brisbane -1.0% 0.7% 0.3%Pine Rivers Shire & Redcliffe City 1.7% -2.0% 0.4%Redland Shire -1.3% -1.3% 2.6%Rockhampton 0.9% 0.4% -1.3%South West 4.4% 0.0% -4.4%Southeast Outer Brisbane -0.3% 0.1% 0.2%Sunshine Coast -0.6% -1.9% 2.5%Sunshine Coast SD Bal 0.0% -5.0% 5.0%Toowoomba -1.8% -1.6% 3.5%Townsville City Part A & Thuringowa City Part A

0.0% -1.4% 1.5%

Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal -0.7% 0.7% -0.1%TOTAL -0.6% -0.8% 1.3%

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Part 2: Impact of middle school intakes

• Traditionally major intakes have occurred at Prep/Preschool, Year 1 (prior to 2007) and Year 8

• This pattern is still prevalent in the State sector and the Catholic sector (with the exception of Year 1 ceasing to be a major intake year with the introduction of prep). – In some areas, particularly growth areas, the State has

moved on occasion to a P-12 model as have a number of Catholic schools (particularly order schools moving from a secondary model to a middle and secondary model e.g. Year 5-12).

• The majority of Independent schools offer P-12, with a large number having moved to a junior, middle and senior school structure.– Major intakes being in Prep, the start of the ‘middle school’

(Year 5, 6 or 7) and Year 8.

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What is the potential impact?• Has the introduction of an increased intake

into the middle school years resulted in more students entering Independent schools

OR• Has it meant that students who would

have been expected to enter Year 8 have just entered earlier….resulting in fewer students entering in Year 8 (and difficulties in filling Year 8 intakes)

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Apparent Progression of Year 7 students going to Year 8 in

Independent schools• Compares the number of Year 7 students

in one year to the number of Year 8 students in the next year at Independent schools.– Gives an indication of the proportion of ‘new’

students compared to existing students progress

– The higher the progression rate the greater proportion of students at the school are ‘new’ students.

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Proportion of ‘New’ Year 8 Students at Independent schools of All Year 8 Students in an area….marketshare gains (or

losses)Additional Students Into Year 8 at Independent Schools 'New' Students as a Proportion of Year 8 Students in the Area2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Beaudesert Shire Part A & Ipswich City 187 239 241 189 210 7.7% 9.0% 9.0% 7.0% 7.7%Bundaberg 37 41 23 28 9 3.3% 3.6% 2.0% 2.3% 0.8%Caboolture Shire -67 -71 -65 -71 -31 -3.9% -3.8% -3.6% -3.9% -1.7%Cairns City Part A 34 11 7 41 71 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 3.3%Central West 0 0 0 0 0Darling Downs SD Bal 24 21 10 17 35 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% 2.3%Far North SD Bal & North West 10 9 18 7 -9 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% -0.5%Fitzroy SD Bal -18 -11 -7 -5 3 -1.8% -1.1% -0.7% -0.5% 0.3%Gladstone 15 8 2 -1 -14 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% -0.1% -1.8%Gold Coast East & Gold Coast West 339 254 273 260 233 6.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.5% 3.8%Gold Coast North 54 67 75 92 113 5.9% 7.5% 7.9% 10.2% 11.1%Gold Coast SD Bal, Lower West Moreton & Upper West Moreton

76 79 63 48 81 6.4% 6.5% 4.8% 3.7% 6.0%

Hervey Bay City Part A 16 25 14 23 22 2.3% 3.6% 1.9% 3.1% 2.7%Logan City 169 208 197 246 207 6.7% 7.8% 7.5% 8.9% 7.6%Mackay City Part A & Mackay SD Bal 61 68 76 61 52 2.7% 3.1% 3.2% 2.7% 2.4%Northern SD Bal 49 72 45 46 68 6.4% 9.3% 5.9% 6.0% 8.3%Northwest Inner Brisbane, Southeast Inner Brisbane & Inner Brisbane

1,107 1,161 1,069 1,137 1,072 17.3% 17.3% 16.3% 16.7% 15.4%

Northwest Outer Brisbane 18 -20 -61 -66 -71 0.5% -0.6% -1.7% -1.8% -2.0%Pine Rivers Shire & Redcliffe City 195 173 210 219 231 8.7% 7.6% 8.8% 9.4% 9.4%Redland Shire 132 127 128 79 143 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 4.4% 7.5%Rockhampton 119 125 139 121 116 9.7% 9.3% 10.7% 9.5% 9.4%South West 0 0 0 0 0Southeast Outer Brisbane 183 156 166 198 161 6.0% 5.1% 5.4% 6.0% 5.0%Sunshine Coast 224 224 172 191 162 6.8% 6.7% 5.1% 5.5% 4.7%Sunshine Coast SD Bal -16 -27 -26 -10 -40 -2.4% -3.6% -3.7% -1.3% -5.9%Toowoomba 98 114 123 128 131 4.8% 5.2% 5.8% 5.9% 6.2%Townsville City Part A & Thuringowa City Part A 183 171 164 162 143 7.7% 7.2% 6.6% 6.4% 5.6%Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal -8 -11 -16 -3 4 -0.4% -0.5% -0.8% -0.2% 0.2%TOTAL 3,221 3,213 3,040 3,137 3,102 5.8% 5.7% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3%

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• Tied up with this is the growth rate in primary in Independent schools versus the growth rate in secondary schooling.

• If this continues……..Source: ABS Census, Qld

Sector 1996 2001 2006

Average 1996-2001

Average 2001-2006

Primary Government 76.3% 74.5% 71.3% -0.5% -0.9% Catholic 16.0% 16.0% 17.1% -0.1% 1.4% Independent 7.6% 9.5% 11.6% 4.5% 4.0%Secondary Government 64.7% 62.9% 61.4% -0.6% -0.5% Catholic 18.6% 18.9% 19.1% 0.3% 0.2% Independent 16.7% 18.2% 19.5% 1.7% 1.4%

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How will schools with 4 streams in secondary and 2 streams in the middle school fill Year 8

enrolments?

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Part 3: The Global Financial Crisis

• Enrolments have continued to grow

• Note: February data for 2009 was only available at the school level for Independent schools. As a result we don’t know what happened in other sectors.

• Data excludes FFPOS and Distance education students.

Has it had an impact?

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But• Rate of growth slowed in terms of

– P-12 enrolments– P-7 enrolments– Year 8 enrolments

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Where Prep growth happened, 2008-

09

Rockhampton

Mackay City Part A

Gladstone

Darling Downs SD Bal

Hervey Bay City Part A

Bundaberg

Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal

Fitzroy SD Bal

Cairns City Part A

Mackay SD Bal

Northern SD Bal

Far North SD Bal Thuringowa City Part A

Central West

South West

Townsville City Part ANorth West

Prep Student Growth Rate, 2008-09

At least 10% Growth5.0 to <10.0%1.0 to <5.0%

-1.0 to <1.0%At least 1% DeclineNo Independent Schools

Rockhampton

Mackay City Part A

Gladstone



Bundaberg


Fitzroy SD Bal

Cairns City Part A

Mackay SD Bal

Northern SD Bal


Central West

South West


Growth in Prep Enrolments, 2008-2009

50 to <7030 to <5010 to <30

-10 to <10-30 to <-10No Independent Schools

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SEQ, Prep – 2008-09

0 25 50

kilometres

Central Brisbane (Northwest Inner Brisbane

Inner Brisbane)Southeast Inner Brisbane

SoutheastOuter Brisbane

Pine Rivers ShireRedcliffe City &

Redland Shire

Gold Coast North

Gold Coast EastGold Coast West &

Logan CityIpswich City &

Beaudesert Shire Part A

Northwest Outer

Brisbane

Lower West Moreton &

Caboolture Shire

Sunshine Coast SD Bal Sunshine Coast

Gold Coast SD Bal

Toowoomba

Upper West Moreton

Growth in Prep Enrolments, 2008-2009

50 to <7030 to <5010 to <30

-10 to <10-30 to <-10No Independent Schools

0 25 50

kilometres





Redland Shire

Gold Coast North




Northwest Outer

Brisbane


Caboolture Shire


Gold Coast SD Bal

Toowoomba

Upper West Moreton

Prep Student Growth Rate, 2008-09


-1.0 to <1.0%At least 1% DeclineNo Independent Schools

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Where Year 8 growth happened, 2008-09

Rockhampton

Mackay City Part A

Gladstone



Bundaberg


Fitzroy SD Bal

Cairns City Part A

Mackay SD Bal

Northern SD Bal


Central West

South West


Growth in Year 8 Students, 2008-09

40 to <5020 to <40

0 to <20-20 to <0-60 to <-20No Independent Schools

Rockhampton

Mackay City Part A

Gladstone



Bundaberg


Fitzroy SD Bal

Cairns City Part A

Mackay SD Bal

Northern SD Bal


Central West

South West


Year 8 Student Growth Rate, 2008-09


-1.0 to <1.0%At least 1.0% DeclineNo Independent Schools

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SEQ – Year 8

0 25 50

kilometres





Redland Shire

Gold Coast North




Northwest Outer

Brisbane


Caboolture Shire


Gold Coast SD Bal

Toowoomba

Upper West Moreton

Growth in Year 8 Students, 2008-09

40 to <5020 to <40

0 to <20-20 to <0-60 to <-20No Independent Schools

0 25 50

kilometres





Redland Shire

Gold Coast North




Northwest Outer

Brisbane


Caboolture Shire


Gold Coast SD Bal

Toowoomba

Upper West Moreton

Year 8 Student Growth Rate, 2008-09


-1.0 to <1.0%At least 1.0% DeclineNo Independent Schools

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Another possible impact• Reduction in the level of in-migration• Students entering Independent schools

from other sectors and/or interstate and overseas reduced in the 2008-09 period compared to the 2007-08 period (12.7% reduction)– E.g. In 2008 there were 5,977.2 more students in Years 2 to 12 than

there were students in Years 1-11 in 2007 (who are the Year 2-12 cohort in 2008). In 2009 there were 5,220.7 more students in Years 2 to 12 than there were students in Years 1-11 in 2008 (who are the Year 2-12 cohort in 2009).

• Progression rates have also reduced

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Migration

Progression Rates

43Note: Progression rates 10-11 and 11-12 are excluded as in bad economic times you expect an increase in retention (as jobs aren’t available)

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Change in Progression Rates – 2007-08 compared to 2008-09

Area P-1 Y1-2 Y2-3 Y3-4 Y4-5 Y5-6 Y6-7 Y7-8 Y8-9 Y9-10

No. Grades Where Progression Rates Decreased (Total 10 Y10-11 Y11-12

Beaudesert Shire Part A & Ipswich City -11.7% 4.8% 3.6% 6.3% -5.2% 2.0% 11.2% -1.9% 1.1% 3.5% 3 1.3% -0.6%Bundaberg -28.9% 3.9% -6.6% -2.7% -13.4% 4.3% -2.6% -13.2% -0.8% 6.7% 7 2.8% 9.5%Caboolture Shire -17.3% 3.7% 3.5% -10.7% -4.1% -27.0% -16.5% -3.1% 61.1% 918.2% 6 123.3% 21.4%Cairns City Part A 6.9% 1.2% 11.2% 1.6% 2.3% 0.4% -13.6% -16.3% -0.1% -2.0% 4 -17.7% -12.9%Darling Downs SD Bal 2.9% 18.6% 20.8% 14.5% 9.0% -4.1% -7.7% -34.6% 0.8% 2.1% 3 22.7% -10.8%Far North SD Bal & North West 12.2% 41.6% 22.9% 13.3% -6.6% -11.1% 22.6% 70.0% 490.9% 1100.0% 2 0.0% 3100.0%Fitzroy SD Bal -21.3% -3.2% 0.0% -4.3% -1.9% -13.5% 2.4% -19.2% 6.7% -40.2% 7 28.0% -21.8%Gladstone -66.5% 12.2% -16.3% 16.3% -6.9% -7.2% 3.7% 34.2% -11.1% 22.7% 5 -6.4% -21.5%Gold Coast East & Gold Coast West -0.9% -0.6% -2.4% 2.2% -1.7% -4.4% -1.5% 0.7% -4.5% -5.3% 8 -3.5% 1.1%Gold Coast North -13.7% 20.5% -25.6% -1.6% -4.8% -2.7% -9.7% -3.6% -8.2% -8.5% 9 1.0% 0.1%Gold Coast SD Bal, Lower West Moreton & Upper West Moreton -16.2% 38.2% 15.4% -17.1% -1.9% 23.5% 16.9% 63.6% -7.8% -8.3% 5 -1.4% -9.2%

Hervey Bay City Part A -28.2% -14.6% -2.7% 3.1% 7.3% -10.7% 20.4% 4.5% 0.5% -11.8% 5 -14.8% 6.8%Logan City -51.3% 18.9% 0.9% -5.4% 2.1% -2.8% -3.9% -13.5% -7.0% -0.2% 7 3.1% 6.9%Mackay City Part A & Mackay SD Bal -11.0% 5.8% -3.6% 8.0% -2.2% -7.0% -4.2% 7.8% -1.6% 4.6% 6 1.4% 8.8%Northern SD Bal 33.5% -14.3% 2.7% 32.3% 1.9% 15.0% -34.2% 49.7% -7.9% -9.9% 4 1.8% 6.6%Northwest Inner Brisbane, Southeast Inner Brisbane & Inner Brisbane -12.6% 6.7% -8.5% -8.7% -11.0% -10.2% -13.6% -9.6% 0.8% -0.8% 8 1.0% -0.6%

Northwest Outer Brisbane -24.6% 2.3% -1.9% -5.6% 3.8% 7.8% -0.2% 11.8% 1.5% -2.4% 5 5.7% 1.8%Pine Rivers Shire & Redcliffe City -37.0% 13.8% -0.5% -5.2% -1.4% -7.4% 2.3% -34.7% -2.4% -6.9% 8 -11.1% 1.2%Redland Shire -0.7% -0.7% -5.3% -1.6% -1.0% -4.2% -4.6% -4.8% -2.2% -0.6% 10 -6.8% 0.0%Rockhampton -36.0% 21.4% -11.2% 13.3% -12.4% -0.5% -20.5% 15.2% 1.9% -5.7% 6 -5.2% -4.1%Southeast Outer Brisbane -13.5% 8.7% -5.0% 4.3% 2.3% 6.5% 5.5% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 2 7.0% -4.5%Sunshine Coast -11.2% 5.4% 0.6% -5.7% -5.1% -7.7% -5.4% -8.9% -7.7% -4.7% 8 -8.5% -1.0%Sunshine Coast SD Bal -36.9% 0.9% -1.8% -7.5% 1.6% -1.9% 3.5% 15.0% 1.6% -40.9% 5 -12.7% 0.0%Toowoomba -37.7% 9.0% -1.4% -4.1% -8.4% -14.0% 2.4% 0.4% -5.4% 3.6% 6 -1.0% -2.5%Townsville City Part A & Thuringowa City Part A -16.7% 16.2% -1.1% -1.4% 4.6% 3.1% -1.4% -3.9% 9.3% -7.4% 6 -8.2% -11.9%Wide Bay-Burnett SD Bal -24.6% -7.9% 2.5% -7.5% -13.5% -8.5% -5.1% 0.5% -1.0% -11.7% 8 -0.9% -3.7%TOTAL -15.0% 6.5% -1.9% -0.9% -2.3% -3.5% -2.4% -3.7% -1.5% -1.7% 9 -0.9% -0.4%

45

So...• What does all of this mean? What should

schools do?• You probably need to ask for a statistical

analysis every five or so years• Look at your statistical area –

– If there is a decline in numbers, you need to market; and ‘catch’ enrolments from other sectors

– If there is growth, is the growth enough? Is there going to be a problem overtime with middle schooling enrolments? What does this mean in terms of changes you might need to consider?

trends in enrolments

Documents