Trends and the Significance of

Demographic Shifts

Ken Cordell Gary Green

U.S. Forest Service,Athens, Georgia

ANDBecky Stephens

University of Tenn.

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

FUTURES FORUM FUTURES FORUM

ON ON

RECREATIONAL RECREATIONAL

BOATINGBOATING

NSRENATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE

ENVIRONMENTSINCE 1960

THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY

1960:Flower Children,

18-horse Johnson, VW Camper Vans,

Elvis and The Beatles, Vietnam, Kennedy,Family Vacations,Chevy Impala V8

2001:INTERNET, WILD STOCK

RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL

WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS,

GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION

LONG-TERM TRENDSLONG-TERMLONG-TERM

TRENDSTRENDS

RECENT TRENDS

• Almost 90 percent of Americans participated in Outdoor Recreation• Walking, picnicking, sightseeing, swimming, fishing, and bicycling the most popular activities

• 94.5 percent participated

• List of pursuits getting longer, more diverse

• Walking, sightseeing, swimming, picnicking, boating most popular

NOWNOW

•Over 97 percent report activities

•Most are adding to their recreation menu

•Living longer means staying active longer

Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

• Technology innovations are making more areas,

more accessible:- Jet boats- Light-weight

gear- Sub-zero

sports clothing

- Sticky climbing shoes

- Night scopes

• Risk/Adventure pursuits are

gaining in popularity:

- Base jumping- Falls shooting- Mountain

boarding- “Jet skiing”

• Traditional outdoor activities still growing (moderately); consumptive activities declining; viewing/learning activities on the rise.

Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001

MillionsGrowth No. in 2000

Walking 85.4 179.0Bird watching 50.0 71.2Hiking 48.4 73.1Swimming/river, lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9Sightseeing 32.7 114.0Picnicking 31.8 116.6Bicycling 27.4 83.9Developed camping 22.8 52.8Motor boating 17.8 51.4Off-road driving 17.3 36.7Backpacking 14.6 23.4

Type of Activity Millions of Participants NationalSouth North Rocky

Mtn./Great Plains

Pacific Coast

Trail/street/road 59.6 82.6 15.7 30.4 188.4

Viewing/learning 44.5 66.2 12.4 23.1 146.1

Camping 18.5 27.4 7.5 12.4 66.5

Hunting 8.8 9.6 2.9 2.1 23.7

Outdoor adventure 35.2 50.5 11.1 19.8 117.0

Boating/floating 23.6 35.3 6.7 10.8 76.5

Fishing 26.8 29.2 6.7 9.1 72.4

Swimming 40.1 57.6 9.2 21.2 127.4

Skiing/sledding/ snowmobiling

8.9 31.9 5.2 8.3 54.4

Outdoor team sport 14.6 21.3 3.9 7.4 46.9

Social activities 53.3 74.6 14.4 27.6 169.9

Regions Where Participants Reside

United StatesWalk for pleasure 84.85Family gathering 73.85All sightseeing, driving, etc. 63.04All swimming, diving, etc. 60.79Visit nature centers 59.27Picnicking 57.34View/photograph natural scenery 55.09Sightseeing 53.98Driving for pleasure 53.66Visit historic sites 48.71Non- pool swimming 44.38All nature viewing/photography 41.68Bicycling 41.63View/photograph flowers, etc. 41.19View/photograph other wildlife 41.05Visit beach 39.96All boating 36.91Day hiking 36.48Visit a wilderness 35.45

Percentage of Americans 16 and Older

United StatesAll fishing 31.80View or photograph birds 30.07Gather mushrooms, berries, etc. 27.97Freshwater fishing 27.80Visit waterside besides beach 27.09Developed camping 26.83Motorboating 23.90Mountain biking 23.39Outdoor team sports 22.51View or photograph fish 21.68Visit prehistoric sites 21.30Warmwater fishing 20.17Drive off - road 17.01Primitive camping 16.18All hunting 10.54Rafting 9.95J et skiing 8.85Waterskiing 7.92Saltwater fishing 7.90

Percentage of Americans 16 and Older (2001)

Comparison of South Carolina, South, and Nation

(Percentage Participating)South Carolina South United StatesAll snow/ice activities 9.90 13.14 31.58Horseback riding 9.12 10.59 9.99Coldwater fishing 8.14 10.37 14.37Horseback riding on trails 9.70 8.87 8.09Backpacking 9.61 8.61 12.15Small game hunting 9.76 8.54 6.46Canoeing 5.65 7.51 10.23Snorkeling 2.53 6.13 6.95Downhill skiing 5.81 4.37 10.26Sailing 4.04 3.99 5.43Rowing 3.44 3.31 4.99Anadromous fishing 3.87 3.16 4.83Migratory bird hunting 2.59 2.73 2.21Scuba diving 2.10 2.14 1.77Snowboarding 2.30 2.02 5.83Kayaking 2.41 1.82 3.51Surfing 2.31 1.48 1.52Snowmobiling 1.07 1.36 7.06Cross- country skiing 0.00 1.22 5.03Windsurfing 0.94 0.75 0.85

Our Changing American Our Changing American SocietySociety About 1 million new immigrants per year More people: 1990 248 mm

2000 275 mm2020 325 mm2050 404 mm2075 481 mm2100 571 mm (Double)

Getting older: Median age 3538 (by 2020) Changing ethnicities by 2050:

Anglo Americans 76%50%African Americans 12% 15%Hispanic Americans 9% 21%Asian Americans 4% 11%

Projected Demand to 2020Millions Indexed ChangeParticipating (Base year

is 1995)Activities (1995) People Days Trips

Water-BasedGoing to the Beach 124 1.24 1.17 1.17Motor Boating 47 1.21 1.14 1.16Swimming 78 1.21 1.12 1.09Fishing 58 1.17 1.17 1.10Canoeing 14 1.15 1.28 1.14Rafting/Floating 15 1.07 1.17 1.10

Winter-BasedCross-Country Skiing 6 1.26 0.961.12Downhill Skiing 17 1.22 1.31 1.36Snowmobiling 7 1.09 1.32 1.35

Projected Demand to 2020Millions Indexed ChangeParticipating (Base year

is 1995)Activities (1995) People Days TripsLand-BasedSightseeing 113 1.32 1.43 1.43Non-consumptive wildlife 117 1.29 1.091.15Biking 57 1.28 1.25 1.45Family Gatherings 124 1.24 1.23 0.83Hiking 48 1.23 1.24 1.23Horseback Riding 14 1.23 1.22 1.29Rock Climbing 8 1.21 1.15 1.03Walking 134 1.21 1.29 --Camping 42 1.19 1.36 1.30Backpacking 15 1.11 1.15 1.08Off-Road Driving 28 1.05 0.99 1.06Hunting 19 0.91 0.99 1.03

DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF FOOTPRINTS OF

BOATERSBOATERS

CANOERS•43 % female•87 % non-Hispanic white•33 % under 25, 77 % under 45•Incomes mostly between $25K

and $75K•Under 80 % urban•Favored by Northeasterners and

Midwesterners

KAYAKERS•44 % female•85 % non-Hispanic white•60 percent under 35, 40% under 25•Over 1/3 earn under $25K•85 % urban•Heavier participation in New England and Pacific Coast states

•SAILERSSAILERS•48 % female48 % female•84% Non-Hispanic white84% Non-Hispanic white•44 % under 3544 % under 35•Middle income earners, also sig- Middle income earners, also sig-

nificant high income earnersnificant high income earners•87 % urban87 % urban•Especially favored in the North-Especially favored in the North-

easteast

WINDSURFERS•67 % male•Almost ½ under 25, 56 % under 35•1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over

$100K•Northeast and Pacific Coast

MOTOR BOATERSMOTOR BOATERS

•52% between $25 and $75•77% urban•Favored in the Lake, Midwest

and South Atlantic states•58 % between 25 and 55•57 % male

•52% between $25 and $75•77% urban•Favored in the Lake, Midwest

and South Atlantic states•58 % between 25 and 55•57 % male

WATER SKIERS•60 % male

•86 % white, 8 % Hispanic

•86 % under 45

•Favored by Prairie and Favored by Prairie and Mountain states residents Mountain states residents

PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

•54 % male

•79 % white, 11 percent Hispanic

•66 % under 35

•Favored in the Midwest and South

Group Walking

Swimming Outdoors

Hiking

MotorBoating

Downhill Skiing

Big Game Hunting

Percent of Total Population

83.8 43.8 33.4 24.4 8.3 8.2

Race/Ethnicity

White 1.02 1.15 1.03 1.25 1.20 1.28

Black 1.00 0.49 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.27

Americn Indian

1.00 1.00 1.14 1.14 1.57 2.00

Asian/ PI 1.08 0.92 0.96 0.54 1.46 0.23

Hispanic 0.88 0.75 1.42 0.50 0.55 0.43

Place of Birth

United States

1.02 1.04 0.93 1.06 1.05 1.07

Another Country

0.81 0.56 1.67 0.37 0.44 0.30

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor

activities by race and country.

Group Walking Swimming Outdoors

Hiking

Motor Boating

Downhill Skiing

Big Game Hunting

Percent of Total Population

83.8 43.8 33.4 24.4 8.3 8.2

Age16-24 1.02 1.37 1.11 1.24 1.89 1.1725-34 1.01 1.21 1.20 1.16 1.32 1.2535-44 1.03 1.19 1.21 1.15 1.14 1.1345-54 1.01 0.99 1.04 1.00 0.78 0.9955-64 0.98 0.68 0.78 0.81 0.32 0.8265+ 0.94 0.37 0.55 0.51 0.12 0.54Income<$15,000 0.91 0.62 0.88 0.57 0.48 0.38$15,000-$24,999

0.98 0.79 0.98 0.63 0.41 0.81

$25,000-$49,000

1.02 1.10 1.04 1.07 0.75 1.31

$50,000-$74,999

1.08 1.28 1.11 1.36 1.17 1.38

$75,000-$99,999

1.09 1.39 1.20 1.59 1.86 1.21

$100,000+ 1.09 1.43 1.29 1.67 2.76 1.09

Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by

age and income.

BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN

OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND

INFORMING

YoungNew EnglandWind Surfers

(0.9%)

NatureLovers(27.2%)

The Inactives(22.0%)

The UrbanBeach Boys

(3.8%)

The NoreasterMusclers (6.2%)

The ThrillSeekers (8.3%)

Hunt-n-FishMen’s Motor Club

(6.3%)

The Take it Easies(25.3%)

Segmenting for more effective

communication and education

Viewing/photographing birds, flowers, wildlife, fish, natural scenery, and gathering mushrooms and berries, and learning in nature centers, visitor centers, historic sites and archeological sites

Not into hunting, fishing, active sports or motorized activities, and not into boating

61 % female, mostly white, middle aged and seniors, not foreign born

New England and Prairie states well represented Donate to civic or charitable organizations,

spend time with grand children, invest, creative arts, collect things and garden, and read environmental magazines

Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance is delicate, and we are on a course for catastrophe

Nature Lovers (27.2%)

Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%) Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat (53%),

canoe

Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning

88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie and Southern

Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets and do home improvements

Humans were meant to rule over the earth and environmental crisis is exaggerated

The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%) Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing,

Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, Water Skiing, Jet Skiing. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting

Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, and urban

South Atlantic and Pacific Coast

Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, and attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts

Like most Americans feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate

Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

Wind surfing (71%), surfing, kayaking (48%),

sailing (68%), non-motorized winter activities,

diving, snorkeling, rowing (28%) and canoeing (55%) More active than most Americans in all activities,

including water and jet skiing Over 85% white; two-thirds male; one half under 25;

urban, U.S. born New England and Pacific Coast residents strongly

represented Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with

environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to a country club, on the internet and into the stock market

More strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, even though we are nearing the earth’s limits

The Inactives

(22.0%) Not very active in outdoor activities, except for a bit of walking, family gatherings, and picnicking

55% female, blacks and Hispanic well represented, spread across age groups, mostly urban and U.S. born

Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home, regularly attend religious services, collect things like coins and antiques

More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, humans were meant to rule over nature, humans can control nature, and the environmental crisis is exaggerated

The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)o Cross-country skiing, rowing (31%), kayaking (28%),

canoeing (53%), downhill skiing, sailing (25%), hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling and fishing

o They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities

o Somewhat more male than female, white and Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged (not seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain and Pacific states

o Members of conservation groups, use the internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to a country club

o More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate and we may be heading for disaster

The Thrill Seekers The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting (46%), snowmobiling, snowboarding, motorboating (83%), downhill skiing, driving off-road, rowing and canoeing

Very active across a large number of activities

Equally male/female, white and American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states

Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends and neighbors

Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, and a disaster is looming

The Take it Easies The Take it Easies (25.3%)(25.3%) Sightseeing, driving for pleasure,

picnicking, visiting historic sites, family gatherings, visiting nature centers, and walking

They don’t ski, boat, hunt, fish, or view/photograph

More female than male, Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islander well represented, all ages, all regions

Attend cultural events, go to movies and church, raise children and spend time with grandchildren, use the internet, and eat out

Believe humans can insure the liveability of the earth and the environmental crisis is exaggerated

THE PUBLIC IS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR

ENVIRONMENT

Source: Roper Organization, 1990; Times Mirror, 1994; NEETF, 1998.

Percentages Indicating Environmental Protectionor Economic Development are Highest Priority

Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.

SUMMARY POINTS

•Our society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, and it shows up in our outdoor recreation

•Outdoor recreation is growing and diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level

•Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating

SUMMARY CONTINUED•Population is likely to continue its rapid growth in the next few decades, with some groups literally exploding in numbers

•Increasingly we see women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older and urban people participating, although outdoor recreation is still very much a white male pursuit

•All indicators point to continuation of the rise of outdoor recreation in the future, and more demands on water and land resources

•At the same time people are showing strong concern for the environment and its water and land resources

•Resource managers will be challenged like never before, and, there will be increasing needs for more effective sharing of information about safety and impacts

•Need to be smart about outreach and education strategies

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends