trends and scenarios in agricultural development - colin chartres - international water management...
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Trends And Scenarios In Agricultural Development by Colin Chartres - - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)TRANSCRIPT
Trends and Scenarios in Agricultural Development
COLIN CHARTRES
International Water Management Institute
What is causing the world food crisis?
• Income growth and dietary change, climate change, high energy prices, globalization and urbanization are transforming food consumption, production and markets (von Braun (2008)
• Slow growing supply, low stocks and supply shocks at a time of surging demand for feed, food and fuel have lead to drastic price increases
• Biofuel production has further impacted the situation and disproportionately affects the poor through price level and volatility effects
A WATER CRISIS?
• The underlying hypothesis is that water scarcity will be a predominant factor in future food cries
The question was asked as to whether we have enough water resources to grow enough food to meet future demand for food and biofuels?
The Comprehensive Assessment answered
No,
unless ….
We change the way we think and act on water issues.
KEY QUESTION
DRIVERS OF WATER DEMAND
What are the driving forces?
• Growing population
• Dietary change
• Urbanization
• Biofuel production
• Need for environmental water
• Climate change
i.e. similar to the food crisis
WE ALREADY INHABIT A WATER SCARCE WORLD
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Most hungry and poor people live where water challenges pose a constraint to food production
Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)
the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining
SUB-SAHARAN ECONOMIES ARE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON WATER AVAILABILITY
e.g. Rainfall and GDP growth in Ethiopia
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Years
Nat
ion
al r
ain
fall
in
dex
: V
aria
tio
n f
rom
tre
nd
(m
m)
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
To
tal
cere
al p
rod
uct
ion
- V
aria
tio
n f
rom
tre
nd
('0
00 t
on
s)
National rainfall index
Cereal production
Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
me
at
co
ns
um
pti
on
(kg
/ca
p/y
r) Meat China
India
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
10 100 1000 10000 100000
GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year)
milk
co
ns
um
pti
on
(kg
/ca
p/y
r)
Milk
China
India USA
USA
Consumption and income 1961-2000
Water and land for biofuels now and 2030
irrigated
Million ha
Harvested area
irrigated
rain fed
rain fed
biofuels2003
2030
400 800 1200 1600
2000 4000 6000 8000
2003
2030
biofuelsirrigation
irrigation
directly from rain
directly from rain
Crop water consumption
km3
Water needs for biofuel production, but a word of caution …..
liters of ET Liters of Irrigation water
China 3800 2500
India 4100 3500
US 1750 300
Brazil 2250 200
Changes in world prices of feedstock crops and sugar by 2020 under two scenarios compared with
baseline levels (%)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
100019
11
1917
1923
1929
1935
1941
1947
1953
1959
1965
1971
1977
1983
1989
1995
2001
2004
Tot
al a
nnu
al in
flow
(G
L)
Annual inflow
1911–1974 (338 GL) 1975–1996 (177 GL) 1997–2004 (115 GL)
Source: WA Water Corporation.
CLIMATE CHANGE: a big uncertainty
INFLOWS INTO PERTH’s STORAGES
Climate Change issues – Ovens Valley, Victoria Australia
For recent climate and current development
• Last 10 years have seen a 11% and 26% reduction in rainfall and runoff.
• Translation of this into a developing country scenario could portend catastrophy
Temperature
Water for Food – 1 liter per calorie
Liters of Water
Daily Drinking Water 2 – 5 Liters of Water
Daily Household Use 20 – 500 Liters of Water
1kg of Grain 500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET)
Livestock products (meat, milk)
5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ET
2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water!
Sectoral water consumption is increasing due to increased demand
Demand will double in the next 40 years
Increasing groundwater usage is a water time bomb
% of potentially utilizable water withdrawn for human purposes
No water scarcity
Approaching water scarcity
Water scarce
0% 60% 75% 100%
Water for food and feed today
Future water for food, CA scenario
Water for biofuels*
*Assumes that 10% of gasoline demand is met by biofuels by 2030
Biofuels: India: and in 2030 (WaterSim analysis by IWMI).
Green solution with blue impacts!
SOLUTIONS?
REVITALIZE IRRIGATION
Irrigated Area
Food price index
World Bank lending for irrigation
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
01960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species
How to avoid?
?
Water storage improves water and food security
“Irrigation” has dominated public investment in agriculture in Asia.
Very little water storage has been built in Africa.
Irrigated area is only 7% of arable land (3.7% in SSA).
Source: World Bank
WHAT CAN WE DO?
RETHINK STORAGE
• Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa
• Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food)
• Diversity of storage options within a basin
• Storage creation processes determine who benefits
• New hydropower schemes and their impacts will be inevitable
Public Health
FarmerLaborer
Consumer
Wastewater irrigation
Soil
Fodder
Ground water
Turn waste water into a valuable resource
LivestockMilk(Meat)
Rice Vegetables
Short term and Long term health impacts
REFORM WATER GOVERNANCE
• By demonstrating that evidence based policy and management works best
• By providing options for policies and institutional reform
• By improved determination of water rights• By better valuation and pricing of water that
protects the rights of the poor• By improved management systems that are
equitable and gender friendly
Demand continues to rise
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
THEN WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH WATER
Today
CA Scenario
Practices like today
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade
CONCLUSIONS
• No doubt that we have a water crisis• Given current projections of food and water
demand we can possibly avert future food crises• Ensuring availability of water for agriculture is
vital, but requires major productivity increases and underpinning water reform
• The impacts of climate change are still uncertain, but investment in adaptation to CC will also be relevant to the impacts of the other drivers of water scarcity