trends and directions, crystal ball glazing from 12/2003

Trends and DirectionsTrends and DirectionsWhat’s in the future?What’s in the future?

December 2003December 2003

Mark CathcartMark Cathcart

Some one asked about futures…Some one asked about futures…

EnergyEnergy– Electricity will get personal – solar textilesElectricity will get personal – solar textiles– Waves my surpass wind as an energyWaves my surpass wind as an energy

FoodFood– More fish will be farmed than fished!More fish will be farmed than fished!

As much as 20% in the USA aloneAs much as 20% in the USA alone

HealthHealth– Feet will continue to get bigger!Feet will continue to get bigger!

Average foot size in 1900’s – 4; 1980’s – 7; now – 9!Average foot size in 1900’s – 4; 1980’s – 7; now – 9!

– Obesity will continue to “spread” around the globeObesity will continue to “spread” around the globe

DemographicsDemographics– Population will deceleratePopulation will decelerate

Need for condoms will double by 2015!Need for condoms will double by 2015!Poverty mapping (aka social demographics) becomes a must have!Poverty mapping (aka social demographics) becomes a must have!


EnvironmentEnvironment– Polar bears become extinct by 2100?Polar bears become extinct by 2100?– 2/3 of Worlds population will have water shortages by 20502/3 of Worlds population will have water shortages by 2050

Consumption tripled in 50-yearsConsumption tripled in 50-years““Water wars” are on the way – Iceland/Mexico/Pakistan/IndiaWater wars” are on the way – Iceland/Mexico/Pakistan/India

– More refugees created by dams and development than by persecutionMore refugees created by dams and development than by persecutionGovernanceGovernance– Voters vanish worldwideVoters vanish worldwide

More money spent on fewer votesMore money spent on fewer votes– Jury trials may disappear in USAJury trials may disappear in USA– Globalisation continues to create culture clashesGlobalisation continues to create culture clashes

Governments must learn how to solveGovernments must learn how to solve

EconomicsEconomics– The future of money will be digital, virtual and universal!The future of money will be digital, virtual and universal!– Will there be books ? Maybe, maybe not!Will there be books ? Maybe, maybe not!

Core context for Intellectual property directionsCore context for Intellectual property directions


EducationEducation– Corporations get more entrenched in educationCorporations get more entrenched in education

May open own institutes of education/technologyMay open own institutes of education/technology

Future workforceFuture workforce– May be problems aheadMay be problems ahead

Potential 10-million shortfall in USAPotential 10-million shortfall in USA– Lack of key skills are early signsLack of key skills are early signs– Top college graduates turning away from science and Top college graduates turning away from science and

engineeringengineering– Manufacturers, Restaurants etc. having problemsManufacturers, Restaurants etc. having problems

Aging population in workAging population in workNeeds substantial changes to national policiesNeeds substantial changes to national policies

Faster paced, better-educated, harder-workingFaster paced, better-educated, harder-workingTime increasingly world’s most precious commodityTime increasingly world’s most precious commodity


ScienceScience– RNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBTRNAi – Middleware for the Gene – NBT

TechnologyTechnologyComputers simulate crises before they happenComputers simulate crises before they happen– Accurate prediction and modelling of climate and Accurate prediction and modelling of climate and

tectonicstectonics

Hand signals will be understood by intelligent Hand signals will be understood by intelligent environmentsenvironmentsFabrics mixed with ceremics, electronics, Fabrics mixed with ceremics, electronics, chemicals and plasticschemicals and plastics– make really make really smartsmart clothes clothes

Rate of change may soon reach turning pointRate of change may soon reach turning point““Rabbits competing for food in enclosed field”Rabbits competing for food in enclosed field”


And oh yes - ComputersAnd oh yes - ComputersGrid integrates with commercial ITGrid integrates with commercial IT– Enabled by web servicesEnabled by web services– Heterogeneous “clusters”Heterogeneous “clusters”

Service Oriented Architecture become the normService Oriented Architecture become the norm– Enabled by web servicesEnabled by web services

Enterprise Services BusEnterprise Services Bus– Business/Application integration and messagingBusiness/Application integration and messaging– Utility/Systems integration and messagingUtility/Systems integration and messaging– ““You wait for one bus and two come along”You wait for one bus and two come along”

Micro payments revisited, rejuvenatedMicro payments revisited, rejuvenated– Enabled by web servicesEnabled by web services