trends and climate change projections of the marine ... · guillem chust and the core group: maite...
TRANSCRIPT
www.azti.es 10/6/2017 1
Trends and Climate Change projections of the Marine Commercial Fish Species in Spain
Marine Research Division - AZTI - Sukarrieta(Spain)
Guillem Chust and the core group: Maite Erauskin, Estibaliz Díaz, Haritz Arrizabalaga, Paula Alvarez, Leire Ibaibarriaga, Andrés
Uriarte, María Korta, Nerea Goikoetxea, Unai Cotano
International Congress on Climate Change and Fisheries (CONXEMAR-FAO)
October 2nd 2017, Vigo
2
Global trends of sea temperature
Rahmstorf et al. 2015 Nature Climate Change
1900 to 2013
• From global to regional cases studies
• Detection and attribution to climate change: How to do it? Examples
• Scenarios and what impacts to fish and fisheries: Ongoing research
• Examples of positive feedbacks in marine systems: Trophic amplification
• Are studies integrating overall impacts on Spanish fisheries?
Local fisheries
Questions
www.azti.es 10/6/2017 3
Adaptation strategies to maintain the thermal optimum range
Poleward shift (population)
Migrate to deep cooler waters
(individuals)
Earlier spring phenological
changes (individuals)
Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science
Poleward shift in the distribution of
North-East Atlantic Mackerel
(Scomber scombrus) spawning
Spawn from January to July
3 spawning components:- North Sea � Western� Southern
Berge et al. 2015C L I P E S
ICES triennial mackerel egg surveyswestern & southern components 1992-2013
Observed daily egg production 2013 (egg.m-2.day-1)
Biological data
289 km/decade
www.azti.es 10/6/2017 6
Habitat modelling and poleward shift
1. Ecological-niche Modelling: algorithm development (GAMs)
(Causalities)
2. Ecological-niche Modelling: cross-validation (k-fold)
3. Predicting the past
(evidences of pressures)
Chust et al. 2013 ICES Journal of Marine Science
� Model 1 (population reconstruction)
� Model 2 (thermal habitat suitability)
Sp
aw
nin
g
Adult tolerance range
Helaouet and Beaugrand 2009
Feeding range
Growth range
Hutchinson 1959
4. Projecting the future
(Shifts in distribution and phenology)
www.azti.es 10/6/2017
Spawning15 km/decade
Thermal Niche78 km/decade
Poleward shift in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning
� 28 km per ºC sea warming
Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science
N
Approach to evaluate climate change impacts on commercial fishes
Hydrodynamic FishBiogeochemical
Process-based models
SDM / ENM / Habitat model
Flagellates Diatoms
Copepods
Nitrates
Large detritus
Ciliates
Small detritus
Ammonium
Distribution (location, extent), phenology, abundance, attribution
www.azti.es 10/6/2017
Future changes in the distribution of Atlantic Mackerel spawning
RCP 4.5
2050
RCP 8.5
2099 2050 2099
Expansion
Retraction
N. 6 km/dec
W. 17 km/dec
N. 0 km/dec
W. 9 km/dec
N. 44 km/dec
W. 8 km/dec
N. 41 km/dec
W. 15 km/dec
Bruge et al. 2016 Frontiers in Marine Science
N
W
www.azti.es 10/6/2017
April-June
October-Dicember
(Santiago, 2004)
ALBACORE TUNA (TROPHIC
MIGRATION)
Trolling Live bait
Fishing Gear
Dufour et al 2010
Poleward shift
Early migration
11
C L I R E M A R
Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in Spain
Escenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España
12
C L I R E M A R
Climatic scenarios for vulnerable marine resources in SpainEscenarios climáticos de los recursos marinos vulnerables de España
Projections under climate change scenarios for:
• European eel larvae
• Anchovy spawning
• Bigeye tuna T. obesus
• Atlantic bluefin tuna T. thynnus
Aida et al. 2003
Early (4.8-31.1 mm)
Current biogeographic distribution
Late
(59.9-87.0 mm)
Mid
(31.4-59.6 mm)
Spatial Distribution Model (SDM) of the latest leptocephalus
European eel larvae stage
Díaz et al. Submitted
1. Time series analysis of spawning activity
2. Projections of egg density
Costoya et al. 2015
1982-2014
European Anchovy: spawning and eggs
Erauskin et al. Submitted
a)
Spawning peak
Gonadosomatic index
16
European Anchovy: egg density projections (RCP8.5)
Egg density increase: 1.1- 2.7xArea Expansion: 8-16%
Erauskin et al. Submitted
FishBase
18
Trophic amplification
Amplification (fractional change in biomass of HTL > FCB LTL)
Attenuation (FCB HTL < FCB LTL)
Proportional response (FCB HTL = FCB LTL)
Chust et al. 2014 Global Change Biology 20:2124-2139
Ocean warming
Phytoplankton biomass changeZ
oo
pla
nkto
n b
iom
ass
ch
an
ge
Response to Climate Change
Change in lower trophic level
Ch
an
ge
in u
pp
er
tro
ph
ic le
vel
Top-Down
control(increasing grazing
pressure)
Top-Down
control(release of grazing
pressure)
Bottom-up control
Bottom-up control
1
-1
-1
1
Trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean
NEMO-PISCES Global Model, A1B scenario, difference between 2100 and present day
Chust et al. Global Change Biology (2014)
• -ive amplification in the tropical oceans
• +ive amplification in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans
• Trophic attenuation in temperate seas
20
Potential Catch Change in 2050 (EEZ)
Spain: -16%
Primary Production change by 2050
Barange et al. 2014 NCC
21Eurostat 2015
Spain
Fishing fleet capacity
Total tonnage (thousand GT)Catches by fishing area
(1 000 tonnes live weight)
22
a concluding remark…
Although the Spanish fishing fleet is one of the
most important in Europe, there is no published
study on how climate change is expected to impact
the total fish catch potential of overall Spanish
fleets
23
Acknowledgements
• FP7 MEECE: Marine Ecosystem Evolution in a Changing Environment (Contract No. 212085)
• FP7 EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration (Contract No. 264933).
• Basque Governement (project CLIPES)
• Fundacion Biodiversidad (Project CLIREMAR)
Thank you for your attention!