trends & opportunities in urbanization

1

THE URBAN

OPPORTUNITY C H R I S B U S C H

N O R T H E R C A L I F O R N I A C O R P O R AT E R E A L

E S TAT E F O R U M

S E P T E M B E R 2 2 , 2 0 1 5

2

ROADMAP 1. Summary Insights

2. Trend analysis

3. How – 12 Guidelines

4. Acknowledge the challenges

5. By the numbers – Benefits quantified

3

SUMMARY INSIGHTS

1. Location efficiency is crucial for

sustainable urbanization.

2. Trends are heading in the right

direction.

3. Smart growth will…

Directly support the success of your companies.

Produce stronger overall economic growth as part of triple bottom line benefits

4


2. Trend analysis Changing preferences – People increasingly want it

Economic – The market is rewarding it

Policy – Government leaders are demanding it




5

MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O R C E

Evidence of changing mobility and

neighborhood preferences.

51%

43%

38%

55%

69%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

MILLENIAL GEN X BABY BOOM

Preference for walkable neighorhoods

Driver's licence within one year of eligibility

Sources: http://nitc.trec.pdx.edu/new/millenials-favor-walkable-communities-says-poll-national-association-realtor-and-trec

http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/files/III-Handy-FINAL-Asilomar-2015.pdf (driver’s license data, from UC Davis survey results)

6


7

MILLENNIALS ARE DIFFERENT A N D A R E T H E L A R G E S T PA R T O F T H E W O R K F O RCE

Car ownership no longer a

gateway to adulthood.

8


41% of millennials use public

transit, compared to:

28% Gen X

19% Boomer

8% Senior

9

CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G

CA expected demand in 2035 for residential units compared to 2010 supply

Arthur Nelson. 2011. The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute.

10

CHANGING PREFERENCES FOR HOUSING W H E R E Y O U R E M P L O Y E E S A R E G O I N G T O B E L I V I N G

CA trends in Demand and Supply of Transit Station Accessible (TSA) Units

4 million unit

deficit

Arthur Nelson. 2011. The New California Dream. Urban Land Institute.

11

JOBS ARE GROWING FASTEST IN CIT Y CENTERS

12

THE SHIFT IN INNOVATION TO CIT Y CENTERS

San Francisco metro

receives 74% more

venture capital investment

than San Jose metro

Florida, Richard, 2014, “Startup City: The

Urban Shift in Venture Capital and High

Technology,” Martin Prosperity Institute,

University of Toronto (March).

Top 20 Metros for Venture Capital Investment (2013)

+74%

13

CORE VALUES: WHY AMERICAN COMPANIES ARE

MOVING DOWNTOWN

Study surveyed 500 companies that had changed office locations

Authors: Smart Growth America, Cushman & Wakefield, GWU

Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis

14

POLICYMAKERS ARE DEMANDING IT

Some examples:

SB 375

SB 743: Changes to CEQA

Surgeon General’s Call to Action

“Building more walkable places can help combat chronic disease”

http://action.smartgrowthamerica.org/salsa/track.jsp?v=2&c=Xq36oR4Zfm8Ot/FClGkbTeARs65cu%2BmE

15


2. Trend analysis




HOW: THE 12 GUIDELINES

THE 12 GUIDELINES

URBAN FORM

1. URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN SPACE

TRANSPORTATION

6. NON-MOTORIZED TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

ENERGY AND RESOURCES

9. GREEN BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE MANAGEMENT

12. WATER EFFICIENCY

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

ATLANTA EMITS 10X MORE TRANSPORT-RELATED CARBON EMISSIONS THAN BARCELONA

Source: The New Climate Economy; http://newclimateeconomy.report/cities/

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

HOW COPENHAGEN MATCHES

DENSITY TO TRANSIT CAPACITY

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT APPROVED FOR 5TH AND MISSIONS IN SAN FRANCISCO

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT PLANNED TO REVIVE VALCO MALL IN CUPERTINO

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

San Francisco Vancouver New York

Portland Shanghai Beijing

BLOCK SIZES IN VARIOUS CITIES AT SAME SCALE

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

Revitalization cost

$115 million

Surrounding area has

seen $2 billion in

private investment

8,000 construction

jobs, 12,000

permanent jobs

Doubling of apartment

values near the park

HIGH LINE PARK,

NEW YORK CITY

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY Source: http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pedestrians/broadway.shtml

NYC GREEN LIGHT FOR MIDTOWN PROJECT

From 2009-2011

Property values in area up 29%. Rest of NYC down 6-36%

Injuries to motorists and passengers down 63%

Pedestrian injuries down 35%

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

GUANGZHOU:

SAME STREET BEFORE AND AFTER BRT

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

LONDON CONGESTION CHARGE

Reduced Congestion by 30%

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

PARKVIEW GREEN IN BEIJING

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

SOLAR PANELS IN VAUBAN, GERMANY

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

SAN FRANCISCO WASTE MANAGEMENT

As of 2010, 77% of waste is re-directed away from landfill

THE 12 GUIDELINES

1. URBAN GROWTH

BOUNDARY

2. TRANSIT-

ORIENTED

DEVELOPMENT

3. MIXED-USE

4. SMALL BLOCKS

5. PUBLIC GREEN

SPACE

6. NON-MOTORIZED

TRANSIT

7. PUBLIC TRANSIT

8. CAR CONTROL

9. GREEN

BUILDINGS

10. RENEWABLE

AND DISTRICT

ENERGY

11. WASTE

MANAGEMENT

12. WATER

EFFICIENCY

EFFICIENT TARGETING IN WATER

33


2. Trend analysis



NIMBY-ism


34


2. Trend analysis




McKinsey analysis of eco-districts

California smart growth benefits

MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS ”Building the Cities of the Future with Green Districts”

• Three regions studied

• Similar technologies and

design features to 12

Guidelines.

• Economic and

environmental benefits

northern North America

the Yangtze Delta in China

the Persian Gulf

Strong economic performance:

Breakeven rate: 3 – 5 years

Internal rate of return: 18 – 30 percent

Construction costs: + $1,000 to $4,000 per resident

Annual savings: – $250 to $1,200 per person

MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS

Multi-faceted environmental benefits:

30 to 50% lower air emissions

Private vehicle travel reduced 50-80%

20 to 40% lower energy consumption

60 to 65% less water consumption

25% less solid waste to landfill

MCKINSEY ANALYSIS OF ECO-DISTRICTS

CLOSER TO HOME Quantification of benefits in California

24-28 million tons of carbon dioxide

equivalent reduced, given current policy


Current Plans More Compact Infill Focus

Economic impacts quantified (2015$)

Household cost savingsa

Cumulative to 2030 $28.9 billion $72.1 billion $91.1 billion

Annual per average household in 2030 $600 $1,600 $2,000

Avoided public health costsb


Annual in 2030 $321 million $853 million $1,040 million

Infrastructure cost savingsc


Environmental impacts quantified

Criteria pollutant emissions avoidedd

Cumulative to 2030 217,000 tons 532,000 tons 686,000 tons

Annual in 2030 19,000 tons 50,000 tons 61,000 tons

Residential water savingse

Cumulative to 2030 52,600 acre-feet 124,200 acre-feet 154,900 acre-feet

Annual average per new household in 2030 9,300 gallons 21,900 gallons 27,300 gallons

Land conservationf

Cumulative to 2030 270 sq mi 490 sq mi 700 sq mi


HANGZHOU

THANK YOU

@ C H R I S B B U S C H

@ E N E R G Y I N N O V L L C

C H R I S B U S C H

W W W . E N E R G Y I N N O V AT I O N . O R G

trends & opportunities in urbanization

Documents