trend research and management: what is a trend? (part 2)
TRANSCRIPT
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www.semiosearch.lt/trainingPART 2 of TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
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CONTENTSThe main purpose of this lesson is to introduce the trend analysis framework. We will start with the main parts of the framework and go through the different types of trends.
-TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
-INNOVATION LANDSCAPE
-MACRO-DIMENSIONS
-VALUES AND BEHAVIORS
-DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRENDS
-FINAL REMARKS
THIS LESSON
In the next lessons we will further explore how each part and their combination work.
NEXT LESSON
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www.semiosearch.lt/traininggo to
for all previous lessons
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TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
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identifying a trend is firstly and most importantly identifying
change
TREND AS CHANGE
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a trend is not an isolated phenomenon, it is a
combination of changes
OUR MAIN THESIS
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INNOVATION LANDSCAPE
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
Innovation landscape encompasses business and organizational innovations that can appear in the form of start-ups, new features, models of operations or value creation
the dimensions that have influence on our everyday lives: culture, lifestyle, consumption, environment, governance, organization, technology, community, demographics or education
behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
the underlying ideological system/s where every phenomenon is marked by evaluation
the expression of the underlying ideological system – through stories, conversations, actions, choices and needs
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INNOVATION LANDSCAPE
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INNOVATION
LANDSCAPEInnovation landscape is where we look at businesses and
organizations looking for emergent innovations, start-ups, new features and new modes of delivery or value creation
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INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
it is important to expand the focus into surrounding industries and look for innovations that are based on the same principles or related
in some way to what we identify in our starting industry/area
SCOPE
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MACRO-DIMENSIONS
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MACRO-DIMENSIONS
macro-dimensions describe different areas that have influence on our lives
culture lifestyle consumption environment
governance organizations technology
community demographics education
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culture lifestyle consumption environment
governance organizations technology
community demographics education
we are looking at shifts, events and changes in any of the macro-dimensions or any other life-affecting spheres that come in between (i. e.
scarcity of resources)
WHAT TO LOOK FOR?
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VALUES AND BEHAVIORS
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behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVELThis is called the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL for a reason. It means that the changes that happen on this level are
tectonic and can be observed over longer periods of time
this describes the ideological system with all possible positions or states and evaluations of
these positions (positive, neutral, negative, unmarked) that we base our actions upon
behaviors and needs is already a specific expression of the ideological system – it’s how we choose to act, evaluate our actions, expect and demand from others and our environment
A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION
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behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION
we can not witness beliefs and values directly – we first need to observe how people act, talk, express their opinions, choose or
ignore things. From this we can reconstruct the underlying value system.
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1. BELIEFSAND VALUESThe ideological system that underlies all changes and evaluation or reception of change.
2. BEHAVIORSAND NEEDSSpecific expressions of our ideological system through conversations, interactions, choices and needs
3. MACRODIMENSIONSDimensions that have influence on our everyday lives and that constitute our living environment.
THE ANATOMY OF A TREND
4. INNOVATIONLANDSCAPEDevelopments within organizational and business sectors that reveal the changing consumer needs
to specificfrom abstract
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a trend is a systemic change that manifests itself on the four levels of the trend framework
OUR WORKING DEFINITION OF A TREND
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MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
trends can be understood as a specific hierarchy where the most general and pervasive trends are
tagged as macro-trends and the most localized and disconnected ones are classified as fads
DIFFERENT TYPES
TREND TREND TREND
FAD
OF TRENDS
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MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
TREND TREND TREND
FAD
abstract andgeneral
specific and localized
too broad to be applicable
too short-lived and specific to be applied
higher certainty
lower certainty
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MEGA-TREND
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A MEGA-TRENDAn over-arching trend that manifests itself
across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several
macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs.
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A MEGA-TREND
NATURAL LIVING
An over-arching trend that manifests itself across at least several industries and is related to changes in at least several
macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a shift in values and beliefs.
and also was related to changes in consumption habits, communication and branding, sourcing and production practices
the quest for natural living has resulted in changes
and innovations across a number of industries
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TREND
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A TRENDis a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs
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A TRENDis a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
trend manifests itself through industry innovations – the stronger the trend, the more innovations will proliferate across different and
sometimes unrelated industries
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A TRENDis a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
trends resonate through shifts and changes in our environments, be it communities, organizations or consumption patterns
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A TRENDis a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
VALUES, BELIEFS
trends resonate with values, beliefs – this is the deepest level that allows the trend
to rise to prominence
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A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND
a trend describes changes within a specified space in our lives, a combination
of trends can constitute a mega-trend
A TRENDa mega-trend is an abstract concept that explains changes happening in
multiple dimensions
A MEGA-TREND
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A TREND AND A MEGA-TREND
identifying a mega-trend is important as it allows to define the relationships between separate trends, but is not as actionable and specific as a specific
trend
ACTIONABLE
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AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and
result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and
environment
AN EXAMPLE
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AUTHENTICITY MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can be manifested across different industries and
result in changes of our relationship with business practices, consumption and
environment
CRAFT CULTUREit just a specific trend that makes a part of
the authenticity movement
AN EXAMPLE
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A FAD
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-A FAD-can be one of the following:
SHORT-LIVED TREND
A short-lived trend that does not connect to the fundamental level, i. e. values, beliefs and needs,
and that does not have a strong connection to the changes in the macro-dimensions of our lives
EXPRESSION OF A TREND
A particular expression of a trend within a specific field that does not hold for long and
loses its momentum. Usually tied just to a particular industry.
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NOT EVERYTHING THAT FAILS IS A
FADspecific trends fail all the time – it doesn’t mean that
they are something to be ignored. Your task is to identify whether the trend that failed connects to
something bigger or not. If it does, you will likely see it resurface.
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WHY SHOULD WE USE THE FRAMEWORK?
ANALYSIS TOOL
EVALUATION TOOL
The trend framework serves a couple of purposes:
First of all, it is an analysis tool that enables to discover and group trend manifestations. This is the essential work for identifying a new trend or the evolution of an existing one.
Secondly, it is an evaluation tool – going through all the parts of the framework allows to assess the longevity and potential of the trend in question.
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www.semiosearch.lt/traininggo to
for all previous lessons
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www.semiosearch.lt/training
TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?
- END OF PART 2 -