TREND ANALYSIS

ASSIGNMENTCIS Writing

Mara Corey, Irondale High School

Basic Features of Trend Analysis

•Presentation of Trend •A Convincing Causal Argument •An Prediction or Discussion of

Future

For most people, the terms "trend" and "fad“ are used

interchangeably.

• When the media tell us "what's hot" they label them as trends.

• Someone who wears the latest fashions or has obscure new music on their iPod is called "trendy."

In other words, fads are short-term fanaticisms; a

blip in culture time whereby it seems the

whole world is joined in the same craze. Exciting and electric as they are,

they burn out fast.

A fad is a fast and furious practice, product, or interest,

fueled by tremendous hype and followed by a deep decline.

Usually isolated to a few market

segments, or particular demographic groups, fads are

self-contained, short-lived phenomena.

Witness the short-lived era of the

Trucker Hat (2001-2003, depending on

whom you ask).

Or Rubik's Cubes, virtual reality,

grunge, pogs, and countless others.

We want fad amnesia, to forget them and bury them away. . . at least until the next generation revives them as retro goofs.

That's because they stand for a certain point in time that we

have moved past.

Trends, though, may represent Trends, though, may represent long-term changes or long-term changes or movements that are movements that are

substantial to society. They substantial to society. They become part of our DNA, even become part of our DNA, even though they may begin with though they may begin with

just a few people, the just a few people, the trendsetters.trendsetters.

A trend is a slower, steadier development. Trends are

characterized by new ways of doing business, new lifestyle

practices, the changing needs of customers and new

products or services that render older ones obsolete.

While trends don’t usually generate as much enthusiasm as fads and take longer to develop, they are longer lasting and far more widespread. Instead of plummeting to their demise, many trends evolve into permanent shifts in the ways we live, work, and interact with others.

Many types of trends exist, including industrial,

economic, societal, cultural, demographic, and

technological.

What you’re looking for . . . • Some service, product, behavior, or

value that extends in one direction, follows a course that is traceable over time.

• A line of movement that shows a prevailing inclination, a statistically detectable change.

• A shift or veer in a new direction that is more than a current style or preference.

Fads span several categories as well as, most

notably, entertainment, fashion and lifestyle.

Both trends and fads begin on the fringe and move toward the center

(the mainstream), but fads fall away, while trends continue to penetrate

larger groups with lasting effects.

Uncovering the epiphany - Fads create a frenzy and

fade; trends spur a transformation in our

culture.

More fascinating still, many fads are the

byproducts of larger, looming trends.

Take the portable music trend spurred by the eighties

boom box, which then

evolved into the nineties

walkman and matriculated

into the millennium

with the iPod.

While the hardware has been replaced with

devices that are more popular and portable, this trend has rocked steady for decades (and may

already be classified as a permanent shift).

Trendsetters get the ball rolling, like the first geeks

who began file sharing on the Internet in the mid-nineties.

They led to the digitization of music, which has built new industries and changed the way most of us consume

music.

Or JFK, a trendsetter in many ways, who was credited with influencing men in the early sixties to go hatless. Since

then, practically no one outside of a costume party,

swing band, or Mafia film wears a Fedora.

Trends have staying power.

No matter how long since their initial popularity, they

still matter.

Take hip-hop music:

• It could have been labeled an early eighties fad given its centrality on the streets of NYC.

• Now it's at the foundation of our popular culture.

• From Billboard and MTV to ad jingles, with the look and fashion adorned by Midwestern high school kids.

• Hip-hop and urbanization of culture was a trend that took hold over the last twenty years.

Real trends have depth. Something

causes their popularity and acceptance.

In the example above, hip-hop must have fused itself to

our culture for a reason.

Understanding that is the job of sociologists,

trendwatchers, market researchers and other professionals who are

sought to analyze society and forecast the trends

that will change the game.

Real trendwatchers . . .

• Use analysis to understand what is behind the fad.

• Examine why the trend is here.• Predict its potential to develop into

a trend.• Are wary of the latest hype and

media spin, which often portray minor movements as national sensations.

Some tips to help YOU be a trend-

watcher . . .

First, prove the

trend exists.

Presentation of Trend

• Introduce engagingly• Prove existence of trend through anecdotes, statistics• Provide details, background, current

status• Thesis: identify both the trend and

the main reason or reasons for the

existence of the trend

Track the trend’s Track the trend’s progression. progression.

Is it progressing or Is it progressing or regressing? regressing?

Trends steadily progress Trends steadily progress and build momentum and build momentum

over time.over time.

Second, determine

what's driving the trend’s

development.

Make a convincing case for a particular cause (s)

In order to effectively analyze a trend, as opposed to simply

reporting on a trend, you must consider the effects

of the trend on the culture.

ResearchA.  Confirms your own hunches about the

trendB.  Suggests other causes for the trendC. Provides evidence in support of your

proposed causesD. Suggests effects of the trendE. Suggests problems/solutions for the

trend

If applicable, suggest possible

solutions for the trend.

How do you start? • Valuable information is everywhere you look. • Read magazines, newspapers, and web articles;

and watch TV news shows to spot recurring themes.

• Scan Web sites, forums, and chat rooms. File away information for future reference.

• Examine whether the fads around you add up to the deeper, wider trends.

• Recognize that the obvious often isn't so obvious. You may see something in front of you, but when you analyze it, you see it's really something else. How many people go out and jog for an hour, then go home and eat a pint of ice cream? That's fitness and fatness in the same person.