treasury secretary john w. snow commerce secretary carlos m. gutierrez labor secretary elaine l....

Treasury Secretary John W. SnowTreasury Secretary John W. Snow

Commerce Secretary Carlos M. GutierrezCommerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez

Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao

December 14, 2005December 14, 2005

Year-End Economic Briefing 2005Year-End Economic Briefing 2005




OverviewOverview

GDP On a Path of Sustained Growth

9700

9900

10100

10300

10500

10700

10900

11100

11300

2001-

IV

2002-

I

2002-

II

2002-

III

2002-

IV

2003-

I

2003-

II

2003-

III

2003-

IV

2004-

I

2004-

II

2004-

III

2004-

IV

2005-

I

2005-

II

2005-

III

Rea

l GD

P (in

bill

ions

)

GDP On a Path of Sustained Growth

9700

9900

10100

10300

10500

10700

10900

11100

11300

2001-

IV

2002-

I

2002-

II

2002-

III

2002-

IV

2003-

I

2003-

II

2003-

III

2003-

IV

2004-

I

2004-

II

2004-

III

2004-

IV

2005-

I

2005-

II

2005-

III

Rea

l GD

P (in

bill

ions

)

President Bush Signs Jobs and Growth Act

(May 2003)


(May 2003)

4.3 % GDP Growth for the 3rd Quarter of 2005

4.3 % GDP Growth for the 3rd Quarter of 2005


Federal Revenues Rising

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Fed

eral

Rev

enu

es (

in m

illio

ns)


(May 2003)

FY2005 - $2.15 Trillion Highest Level of Federal

Receipts in History

Federal Revenues Rising

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Fed

eral

Rev

enu

es (

in m

illio

ns)


(May 2003)

FY2005 - $2.15 Trillion Highest Level of Federal

Receipts in History





Business ReportBusiness Report


Real Average Annual GDP Growth2001-2005

3.0

2.7

1.4

0.6 0.5

1.4

2.4

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

UnitedStates

Canada France Germany Italy Japan UnitedKingdom

Per

cen

t

Source: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

Tri

llio

ns

of D

olla

rs

Prior May 2003, Real PCE growing by 2.3%

per year Following the Enactment of the

Jobs and Growth Act, Real PCE growing by

3.8% per year

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce


Household Net Worth

30

35

40

45

50

55

2001

-IV

2002

-I

2002

-II

2002

-III

2002

-IV

2003

-I

2003

-II

2003

-III

2003

-IV

2004

-I

2004

-II

2004

-III

2004

-IV

2005

2-I

2005

-II

2005

-III

Tril

lion

s o

f Do

llars


(May 2003)

Household Net Worth Exceeds $50 Trillion in

Third Quarter 2005

Source: Federal Reserve Board



Real Business Investment

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

2001

-IV

2002

-I

2002

-II

2002

-III

2002

-IV

2003

-I

2003

-II

2003

-III

2003

-IV

2004

-I

2004

-II

2004

-III

2004

-IV

2005

2-I

2005

-II

2005

-III

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs Prior May 2003, Real Nonresidental Fixed

Investment was Falling

Since the Enactment of the Jobs and

Growth Act, Real Investment Increased

by 22%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Coummerce


Real Exports

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

2001

-IV

2002

-I

2002

-II

2002

-III

2002

-IV

2003

-I

2003

-II

2003

-III

2003

-IV

2004

-I

2004

-II

2004

-III

2004

-IV

2005

2-I

2005

-II

2005

-III

Bill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

Since Enactment of the Jobs and Growth Act, Export Growth has been averaging

over 8% per year

Source: Bureau of the Census, US Department of Coummerce

Labor Secretary Elaine L. ChaoLabor Secretary Elaine L. Chao



Employment ReportEmployment Report

U.S. Department of LaborU.S. Department of Labor

More Americans are Working than Ever Before

Number of Americans Working as Measured by the

Household Survey, Nov. 1995-Nov. 2005 (in millions, seasonally adjusted)

125.2

127.8

130.6

132.3

134.3

137.3136.2 136.5

140.3

142.6

138.4

120

125

130

135

140

145

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

December 14, 2005December 14, 2005U.S. Department of U.S. Department of LaborLabor

Widespread Jobs Recovery in Key Growth Sectors

Industry Sector Employment Change Since Jobs Recovery Began as Measured by the Establishment Survey, May 2003 to Nov. 2005 (in thousands, seasonally adjusted)

199

320

660

777

1,153

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Financial Activities

Construction Health Services Prof. and Business Serv.

Transportationand Utilities


Strong Recovery in High Paying Jobs

Change in Average Employment by Occupation Based on Household Survey, Average for 12 Months Ending November 2005 to Average for 12 Months Ending November 2003 (in Thousands). Occupations

Ranked by September 2005 Compensation.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Jobs Paying Below Average Compensation

Jobs Paying Above Average Compensation

2.5 Million

1.4 Million


Smaller Firms Have Led the Recovery

Cumulative Quarterly Net Employment Change, 2nd Quarter 2003 to 1st Quarter 2005 by Firm Size Based on BLS BEDS Data (in thousands, seasonally adjusted)

349189 223

341249 319

195

725

1865

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 19

20 to 49

50 to 99

100 to 249

250 to 499

Total 1

to 4

99

500 or M

ore






Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao

treasury secretary john w. snow commerce secretary carlos m. gutierrez labor secretary elaine l....

Documents