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2 GIUSEPPE THE GREAT (20/1)Owner: MossarosaTrainer: Nick ZitoJockey: Tyler Gaffalione

WEST COAST (4/1)Owner: Gary & Mary WestTrainer: Bob BaffertJockey: Mike Smith

TAPWRIT (7/2)Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, et alTrainer: Todd PletcherJockey: Jose Ortiz

GOOD SAMARITAN (5/1)Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, et alTrainer: Bill MottJockey: Joel Rosario

LOOKIN AT LEE (30/1)Owner: L and N RacingTrainer: Steve AsmussenJockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

MCCRAKEN (12/1)Owner: Whitham ThoroughbredsTrainer: Ian WilkesJockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

IRAP (8/1)Owner: Reddam RacingTrainer: Doug O’NeillJockey: Mario Gutierrez

GUNNEVERA (20/1)Owner: MargothTrainer: Antonio SanoJockey: Edgard Zayas

FAYEQ (30/1)Owner: Shadwell StableTrainer: Kiaran McLaughlinJockey: Luis Saez

GIRVIN (10/1)Owner: Brady GradyTrainer: Joe SharpJockey: Robby Albarado

ALWAYS DREAMING (6/1)Owner: Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, et al Trainer: Todd PletcherJockey: John Velazquez

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CLOUD COMPUTING (8/1)Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. LawrenceTrainer: Chad BrownJockey: Javier Castellano

Personal Ensign Stakes $700,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Personal Ensign Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Cavorting J. Castellano2015 Sheer Drama J. Bravo 2014 Close Hatches J. Rosario 2013 Royal Delta M. Smith2012 Love and Pride J. Velazquez

Longshot Personal Ensign Winners: (Since 2000)Year Horse Payout2012 Love and Pride $22.002010 Persistently $45.00 2005 Shadow Cast $31.00 2003 Passing Shot $24.60

Know ThisTrust the Chalk: Extraordinarily, the favorite has finished in the Exacta in 22 of the last 26 editions of the Personal Ensign (11 wins, 11 seconds). Last year’s favorite, Curalina, finished 2nd, beaten just ½-length by Cavorting. Since 2006, the average $2 Exacta payout in the Personal Ensign is $35.70 with none paying more than $94.

Beware the Del Cap: Since 1996, Delaware Handicap winners have won the Personal Ensign five times, with an overall record of 17-5-4-3 ($1.30 Win ROI). Two of the last four ‘Del Cap’ winners to race in the Personal Ensign, Sheer Drama (‘15) and Royal Delta (’13), won it.

Post Time: 2:23 PM ET3YO+ Fillies & Mares1 1/8 Miles

Checkmate

Personal EnsignPicks

1. FOREVER UNBRIDLED 2. SONGBIRD 3. GOING FOR BROKE 4. ESKENFORMONEY

Analysis: Look at this year’s Personal Ensign Stakes as a high-stakes chess match. At one side of the table, you have the Grandmaster, Mike Smith, aboard SONGBIRD. Together they’re 13-for-14, the lone blemish a narrow defeat to Beholder in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. On the other side, you have Joel Rosario and FOREVER UNBRIDLED. They teamed to finish a close third in this race last year and have won 3-of-6 races since uniting, including the Grade 1 Beldame last October. How you bet the Personal Ensign should come down to the respective talents of both SONGBIRD and FOREVER UNBRIDLED, but also – and perhaps just as importantly – the cat-and-mouse game between Mike Smith and Joel Rosario.

Main Contenders: SONGBIRD is a sure-fire Hall of Famer with a penchant for going to the front and never looking back. That takes the guesswork out of Smith’s tactics. He’s going to play ‘catch me if you can’ from Post Position #2. On the other hand, Rosario’s tactics aren’t as clear. He has the advantage of having drawn outside (Post Position #4), which will allow him to track what Smith is doing to his inside and react accordingly. If Smith goes out too fast, or if someone else goes for the lead, he can take FOREVER UNBRIDLED back. If Smith slows the pace too much, Rosario can really ratchet up the pressure. It’s well documented that the 2017 version of SONGBIRD hasn’t looked quite as explosive as last year’s and, with a formidable force like FOREVER UNBRIDLED glued to her flank, this will be her biggest test yet. If she’s not at her best, the result probably won’t be favorable. Veteran trainer, Dallas Stewart, has targeted this race for FOREVER UNBRIDLED all year and she has just enough versatility and talent to spring a minor upset.

Value Plays: Chad Brown’s GOING FOR BROKE was far behind SONGBIRD in last year’s Alabama and even further behind FOREVER UNBRIDLED in the Beldame. And since she’s the ‘best of the rest,’ it’s very difficult to envision anyone even getting close to knocking off the top two.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $50 Exacta: FOREVER UNBRIDLED over SONGBIRD ($50)

Ballerina Stakes$500,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Ballerina Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Haveyougoneaway J. Velazquez 2015 Unbridled Forever J. Velazquez2014 Artemis Agrotera R. Maragh 2013 Dance to Bristol X. Perez2012 Turbulent Descent J. Velazquez

Sub-Even Money Ballerina Starters: (Since 1995, Odds to $1)Year Horse Odds Finish 2012 Turbulent Descent 0.45 1st 2004 Lady Tak 0.85 1st2001 Dream Supreme 0.50 3rd 1998 Colonial Minstrel 0.65 5th1997 Flat Fleet Feet 0.65 4th1996 Capote Belle 0.80 2nd1995 Inside Information 0.40 2nd

Know ThisGo (Price) Shopping: Since 1991, Ballerina favorites are just 4-for-26 with a paltry $0.66 Win ROI. They have, however, finished in the Trifecta in 19-of-26 years. The average Win payout in that span is $13.58.

‘Crowned’ Later: Since 1998, winners Florida’s Princess Rooney are 0-for-10 in the Ballerina with no finishes in the Exacta. However, three fillies – Maryfield (2007), Happy Ticket (2005) and Lady Tak (2004), all went on to win the Ballerina after losing in the ‘Rooney.

Bet Johnny V.: John Velazquez is 15-4-6-1 in the Ballerina, with a career Win ROI of $2.61. He has finished in the Trifecta with his last six mounts in the race.

Post Time: 2:59 PM ET3YO+Fillies & Mares7 Furlongs Dirt

The Beat Goes On

BallerinaStakesPicks

1. PAULASSILVERLINING 2. HIGHWAY STAR 3. BY THE MOON 4. CURLIN’S APPROVAL

Analysis: New York and Florida form clashes in the Grade 1 Ballerina, as the 1-2 finishers in last month’s Grade 2 Princess Rooney – CURLIN’S APPROVAL and DISTINTA – ship north from Gulfstream Park to square off against a venerable group of New York sprinters, including PAULASSILVERLINING, BY THE MOON and HIGHWAY STAR. Can Florida form hold up in New York? According to our Know This in the right pane … no. Not historically, at least. But 2017 is a different year. Will the results be different?

Main Contenders: PAULASSILVERLINING is arguably the best female sprinter in the country, boasting a perfect 3-for-3 record in 2017 with victories in the Grade 1 Madison (Keeneland), Grade 1 Humana Distaff (Churchill) and Grade 2 Honorable Miss (Saratoga). BY THE MOON was second in this race last year and continues to show solid form wherever she runs. The 1-2 finishers from the Princess Rooney both emerge in New York for new barns. CURLIN’S APPROVAL is now trained by Happy Alter and DISTINTA is now a member of Todd Pletcher’s vaunted barn. CURLIN’S APPROVAL ran great last out and is 6-for-11 in her career, but has missed the board both times she traveled away from Gulfstream Park. Proceed with caution on her. Value Plays: HIGHWAY STAR has developed into one of the most underrated fillies on the NYRA circuit. She has never missed the board in a one-turn main-track race, and that includes her win two back in the Grade 2 Ruffian and her third place finish behind Songbird last out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day. She’s also a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance. At 10/1 on the morning line she’s an incredible value.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $15 Exacta: PAULASSILVERLINING over HIGHWAY STAR, BY THE MOON ($30) • $10 Win, Place: HIGHWAY STAR ($20)

H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes $500,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 H. Allen Jerkens S. Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Drefong M. Smith2015 Runhappy E. Prado 2014 The Big Beast J. Castellano 2013 Capo Bastone I. Ortiz Jr.2012 Willy Beamin A. Garcia

Largest H. Allen Jerkens S. Exactas: (Since 1991, $2 Payout)Year Horses Payout2013 Capo Bastone/Mentor Cane $7592012 Willy Beamin/Fort Loudon $376 2015 Runhappy/Limousine Liberal $356 2003 Valid Video/Great Notion $1972008 Visionaire/Desert Key $126

Know ThisSalute to a Legend: Formerly the King’s Bishop, the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes was renamed in May 2017 to honor the Hall of Fame trainer, who passed away in March 2015.

Three’s Company: With his victory last year aboard Drefong, Mike Smith broke a three-way tie with John Velazquez and Edgar Prado to become the active rider with the most H. Allen Jerkens Stakes wins with four.

Toteboard Fireworks: Three of the last four editions of the King’s Bishop have been marked by massive payouts (see above chart). Even with favored Drefong winning last year, the $2 Trifecta still returned $1,404!

Post Time: 3:35 PM ET3YO 7 Furlongs Dirt

‘Anthem Should Hit ‘HOF Trainer Double’

H. AllenJerkensPicks

1. AMERICAN ANTHEM 2. PRACTICAL JOKE 3. NO DOZING 4. COAL FRONT

Analysis: This year’s H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (formerly the King’s Bishop) attracted a strong field of nine three-year-old sprinters. When handicapping this race (as well as all others), one of the first factors bettors should account for is pace. How fast will they go early? The faster the pace, the more likely this race is to fall into the laps of the closers. In this race, we see a ton of early speed. TAKAFUL, PHI BETA EXPRESS, COAL FRONT and WILD SHOT should ensure quick fractions, which sets things up for the come-from-behind runners.

Main Contenders: Bob Baffert’s AMERICAN ANTHEM is a perfect 3-for-3 sprinting (as opposed to 0-for-3 routing) and won the Grade 2 Woody Stephens last out on Belmont Stakes Day, meaning a win today would complete the inaugural ‘Hall of Fame Trainer Double.’ His outside draw is perfect for him and he does his running from midpack, which should be to his advantage here. Look for Mike Smith to sit a few lengths behind the leaders before unleashing AMERICAN ANTHEM’s powerful kick. COAL FRONT is undefeated in three career starts, but has never faced runners this good. He drew outside of the other speed – a bonus – but his margin for error is slim at best. PRACTICAL JOKE cuts back in distance after a solid 3rd in the Haskell and, like AMERICAN ANTHEM, he is unbeaten (4-for-4) in one-turn races.

Value Plays: We’ve spent a lot of time analyzing one-turn versus two-turn resumes, and that trend continues with TALE OF SILENCE, who has finished 1st or 2nd in 4-of-7 one-turn races, but has never finished better than 5th in a two-turn event. He’s 10/1 on the Morning Line and could close into a slot in your Trifecta or Superfecta. NO DOZING is 12/1 and he has finished in the Trifecta in 6-of-9 tries, including three graded stakes races. His trainer, Arnaud Delacour, is one of the most underrated conditioners in the nation.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $20 Exacta Box: AMERICAN ANTHEM and PRACTICAL JOKE ($40)• $5 Trifecta: AMERICAN ANTHEM over PRACTICAL JOKE over NO DOZING, COAL FRONT ($10)

Forego Stakes$600,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Forego Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 A.P. Indian J. Bravo 2015 Private Zone M. Pedroza2014 Palace C. Velasquez 2013 Strapping Groom J. Alvarado2012 Emcee A. Garcia

Wire-to-Wire Forego Winners: (Since 1991, Odds to $1)Year Horse Payout2015 Private Zone $1.602013 Strapping Groom $15.20 1999 Crafty Friend $4.60 1998 Affirmed Success $1.451991 Housebuster $0.60

Know ThisPaging Mr. Pletcher: The Forego is the only of today’s stakes races that Todd Pletcher has yet to win. He is 0-for-14 in the race, with his best finish coming with Left Bank (2nd, 2001).

Back Into Focus: With A.P. Indian’s score last year, favorites have now won three of the last five editions of the Forego. That’s in stark contrast to the prior eight years, when the public’s choice went 0-for-8 with just one Exacta finish.

Don’t Forget the Longshots: In each of the last five years, at least one horse has finished in the Forego Trifecta at odds of 15/1 or higher. The average Trifecta payout in that span is $518 for a $2 bet!

Post Time: 4:12 PM ET3YO+7 Furlongs Dirt

Upset BrewingGuest Handicapper: Stan Salter, Maryland Horse Radio

@MDHorseRadio

Forego StakesPicks

1. DIVINING ROD 2. MIND YOUR BISCUITS 3. DREFONG 4. TALE OF S’AVALL

Analysis: Is DREFONG lone speed with Hall of Fame rider, Mike Smith, in the irons? That was my first observation of this race. Besides DREFONG, who goes out for Bob Baffert and won the King’s Bishop last year, there’s a severe lack of early speed. That said, Saratoga is the ‘Graveyard of Favorites’ and I think the absence of early pace on paper is too good to be true. Someone will go with DREFONG early. Maybe that someone is DIVINING ROD, who just made his five-year-old debut in the Polynesian Stakes at Laurel, where he stalked the early pacesetter and romped to a six-length victory, earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure.

Main Contenders: DREFONG is the 5/2 morning line favorite and won a pair of Grade 1 races last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. His four-year-old debut in the Bing Crosby at Del Mar was a disaster, as he ducked left leaving the chute and lost his rider in the process. He appears to be the main speed in the race, but what should we make of that inauspicious seasonal debut? MIND YOUR BISCUITS won the Dubai Golden Shaheen in March and took the Grade 2 Belmont Sprint Championship last out going seven furlongs. The only issue I see is he’s a closer, meaning he’ll need a hotly contested early pace to set up for his late rally. DIVINING ROD was third in the 2015 Preakness behind American Pharoah, second behind Connect in the 2016 Cigar Mile and might be in the best form of his life as a five-year-old. If his troubles are behind him, look out. He’s a major player and my upset pick.

Value Plays: TALE OF S’AVALL is 12/1 and is conditioned by Barclay Tagg, who always does great at Saratoga. He’s 3-for-11 in 2017, and I think this closing sprinter is in top form right now. I think he can get a small piece at a big price.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $50 Win: DIVINING ROD ($50)

Sword Dancer Stakes $1,000,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Sword Dancer Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Flintshire (GB) J. Castellano2015 Flintshire (GB) V. Cheminaud 2014 Main Sequence R. Maragh 2013 Big Blue Kitten J. Bravo2012 Point of Entry J. Velazquez

Repeat Sword Dancer Winners: (All Time)Years Horse2015, 2016 Flintshire (GB) 2009, 2010 Telling 2007, 2008 Grand Couturier (GB) 2001, 2002 With Anticipation 1989, 1990 El Senor 1983, 1984 Majesty’s Prince

Know ThisIs He Due? Bill Mott leads all current trainers with three Sword Dancer victories. He is winless with his last 14 starters in the race though. His last win came in 1996 with Broadway Flyer.

Shaky Speed: Since 1991, only two horses (With Anticipation, 2001 & Kiri’s Clown, 1995) have won the Sword Dancer in wire-to-wire fashion. In that same span, seven horses, including Flintshire last year, won the race with last-to-first moves.

Post Time: 4:49 PM ET3YO+ 1 1/2 Miles Turf

SwordDancerPicks

1. SADLER’S JOY 2. IDAHO (IRE) 3. MONEY MULTIPLIER 4. BIGGER PICTURE

Analysis: With Flintshire, the winner of the last two runnings of the Sword Dancer off making babies, seven runners will try to take down the 2017 renewal, with European shippers ERUPT and IDAHO figuring to take the bulk of the action. It’s not the first time they shared a plane ride across the Atlantic as the duo invaded Woodbine last season for the G1 Canadian International. IDAHO failed as the 7-5 favorite that day, trudging home fifth, while ERUPT upset the applecart at better than 12-1. Chad Brown will be looking for his second consecutive Sword Dancer victory, and third overall, as MONEY MULTIPLIER will look to improve on his runner-up finish in last year’s event. The first three finishers from the G2 Bowling Green – HUNTER O’RILEY, BIGGER PICTURE and SADLER’S JOY – are all stakes winners this year.

Main Contenders: IDAHO is looking for his first Grade 1 score in this having faced two of the best in the world, Enable and Ulysses, when third last out in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot a little less than a month ago for world-class trainer, Aidan O’Brien. ERUPT and his connections have to be hoping a return to the U.S. will mean a return to the winners’ circle as his win at Woodbine last fall was his only win in the past two years. Overmatched in the G1 Japan Cup to close out 2016, he missed by just a length in the G1 Prix Ganay in his 2017 debut in May but was practically eased in the G1 Grand Prix Saint-Cloud in early July. SADLER’S JOY made a big middle move to the lead in the aforementioned Bowling Green and looked like a good thing at the eighth pole but couldn’t finish the job and settled for third. Julien Leparoux replaces Javier Castellano in the saddle. Will a better timed ride make the difference?

Value Plays: BIGGER PICTURE is 8/1 on the ML and has never missed the board at the distance and is reunited with New York’s leading rider, Jose Ortiz. Don’t be surprised if he’s a bit more forwardly placed in the early running after lagging near the back of the pack in his last two starts.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $20 Win: SADLER’S JOY ($20) • $5 Exacta Key Box: SADLER’S JOY over IDAHO, MONEY MULTIPLIER, BIGGER PICTURE ($30)

Defending the Home TurfGuest Handicapper: Anthony Stabile, Xpressbet Radio on HRRN

@TheBigAStabile

Travers Stats & Trends

All-Time Travers Stakes Record – Today’s Trainers

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Trainer

Chad BrownNick ZitoBob BaffertTodd PletcherBill MottJoe SharpTodd PletcherSteve AsmussenIan WilkesDoug O’NeillAntonio SanoKiaran McLaughlin

Jockey

Javier CastellanoTyler GaffalioneMike SmithJose OrtizJoel RosarioRobby AlbaradoJohn VelazquezRicardo Santana Jr.Brian Hernandez Jr.Mario GutierrezEdgard ZayasLuis Saez

Horse

Cloud ComputingGiuseppe the GreatWest CoastTapwritGood SamaritanGirvinAlways DreamingLookin At LeeMcCrakenIrapGunneveraFayeq

Horse

Cloud ComputingGiuseppe the GreatWest CoastTapwritGood SamaritanGirvinAlways DreamingLookin At LeeMcCrakenIrapGunneveraFayeq

Starts

5288

147-

1444--6

Starts9-

12323

16-1--2

Win

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Win

5-3---1----1

Place

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Place

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Show

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Win ROI

-$0.41$3.59$1.03

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$0.68

Win ROI

$11.17-

$2.83---

$0.50----

$10.60

AVG Odds

16.87/119.18/1

4.09/16.58/1

13.66/1-

6.58/16.66/1

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8.10/1

AVG Odds

13.01/1-

6.16/143.48/1

5.58/115.03/112.56/1

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42.93/1

All-Time Travers Stakes Record – Today’s Jockeys

Winning Travers Post Positions - Since 1901

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Wins

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Travers Stakes$1,250,000 – Grade 1

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Travers WinnersYear Horse Jockey2016 Arrogate M. Smith 2015 Keen Ice J. Castellano 2014 V.E. Day J. Castellano2013 Will Take Charge L. Saez2012 Alpha (DH) R. Dominguez2012 Golden Ticket (DH) D. Cohen

Know ThisMoney’s on Javy: Javier Castellano has won the Travers an unprecedented five times in just nine tries. His Win ROI in the race is a spectacular $11.17.

A ‘Dandy of a Prep: Since 1992, 13-of-26 Travers winners prepped in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes. On the other hand, just five horses in that span prepped in the Haskell. Last year’s winner, Arrogate, was making his stakes debut in the Travers. Recency is Key: Since 1960, 48-of-58 Travers winners had finished 1st (35 times) or 2nd (13 times) in their final prep. Just 10 horses had finished 3rd (7 times) or 4th (3 times). No horse in that span won the Travers after finishing worse than 4th in its final prep.

Not a ‘Graveyard of Favorites’: Since 1901, favorites have won 49-of-112 editions of the Travers, a respectable 43.75% win clip. Favorites have lost four straight editions of the Travers, however, including Exaggerator’s 11th place finish last year.

Post Time: 5:44 PM ET3YO1 1/4 Miles Dirt

TraversStakesPicks

1. GOOD SAMARITAN 2. GUNNEVERA 3. MCCRAKEN 4. IRAP

Analysis: Saratoga is known as the ‘Graveyard of Favorites,’ which strikes me as ironic considering I’m not sure anyone knows who will be favored in the 148th Travers Stakes. Many of these three-year-olds have taken turns beating each other and that is fact considering for the first time since the 1920’s we had a different top three across the wire in each Triple Crown race. Yet, here we are with the Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners all lining up to face off at the classic distance of 1 ¼-miles, making for a fantastic edition of the Summertime “Derby.”

Main Contenders: Contention runs deep here with seven of the 12 starters coming off wins from all over the country. Let’s start our tour of the field with horses that’ve had local success. Just three of these entrants have wins at Saratoga, which is very important at this true ‘horse for course’ track in upstate New York. GOOD SAMARITAN was awesome in his dirt debut last out in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy as he rolled past Kentucky Derby winner, ALWAYS DREAMING, and Preakness winner, CLOUD COMPUTING. He’s bred to run all day and that Jim Dandy win came here at the Spa, meaning he checks many boxes. He has a long stride and while he doesn’t have push-button acceleration, he’s tough to stop once he gets rolling. That’s probably why he took to the dirt so well. Additionally, Haskell winner, GIRVIN, Ohio Derby and Indiana Derby winner, IRAP, Los Alamitos Derby winner, WEST COAST, and of course the Belmont Stakes winner, TAPWRIT (has not run since), all have credentials to factor and even win if they bring their best.

Value Plays: Think back a year. Do you remember a maiden winner from Gulfstream Park shipping up to face (and beat) much more heralded horses in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special? That horse was GUNNEVERA, who is back to Saratoga and may be ready to take a step forward off a win in a minor stakes race at Gulfstream last out. He fired a bullet workout since that race and his jockey that day, Edgard Zayas, makes the trip up from Florida to ride him.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $2 Exacta Box: GOOD SAMARITAN, MCCRAKEN, IRAP, GUNNEVERA, FAYEQ ($40)• $10 Win: GUNNEVERA ($10)

Dirt Makes Difference for Good SamaritanGuest Handicapper: Aaron Vercruysse, XBTV

@LongshotAaronV

Ballston Spa Stakes$400,000 – Grade 2

Stats & TrendsLast 5 Ballston Spa Winners: Year Horse Jockey2016 Strike Charmer J. Alvarado 2015 Dacita (CHI) J. Castellano2014 Abaco J. Ortiz 2013 Laughing (IRE) J. Lezcano2012 Zagora (FR) R. Dominguez

Wire-to-Wire Ballston Spa Winners: (Since 1991, Odds to $1)Year Horse Payout2013 Laughing (IRE) $2.652006 My Typhoon (IRE) $3.05 2000 License Fee $3.20 1999 Pleasant Temper $1.801993 One Dreamer $7.601992 Aurora $1.801991 Paris Opera $6.20

Know ThisThe Johnny & Javy Show: John Velazquez (4-for-19) and Javier Castellano (2-for-6) have combined to win the Ballston Spa six times. Velazquez’s Win ROI in the race is $2.39, while Castellano’s is a robust $9.64.

Heating Up: Top turf trainer, Chad Brown, is 9-2-2-0 in the Ballston Spa, with a Win ROI of $2.44. He finished second last year with Lady Eli and won the 2015 edition with Dacita, who paid $17.

Post Time: 6:20 PM ET3YO+Fillies & Mares1 1/16 Miles Turf

Brown’s Formidable 1-2-3 Punch

Ballston Spa

Picks

1. LADY ELI 2. ANTONOE 3. ROCA ROJO (IRE) 4. DICKINSON

Analysis: There’s no greater turf trainer in the United States than Chad Brown, who wins with a remarkable 28% of his starters on the sod. Amazingly, he’s even better at Saratoga, where he’s hitting at a 29% strike rate this year, a sharp increase from his 22% rate last season. He sends out a formidable trio in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa – LADY ELI, ROCA ROJO and ANTONOE. Handicapping this year’s Ballston Spa isn’t so much a matter of figuring out which horse will win, but which of Chad Brown’s three entrants will.

Main Contenders: LADY ELI is the type of horse they’ll make a movie about someday. She’s won Grade 1 races in four straight years and overcome a life-threatening case of laminitis. She’s never finished worse than 2nd in any of her 12 career starts, including a harrowing attempt in this race last year on the heels of a 13-month layoff. She won the Grade 1 Diana Stakes here last time out by a head. If there’s a knock against her, it’s this race’s distance, coupled with lack of pace. Two of her three losses came at this 1 1/16-mile distance and Irad Ortiz Jr. will need to be cognizant not to drop too far out of it early, as there’s minimal pace in this race. Her stablemate, ANTONOE, barreled down the lane to win the Grade 1 Just a Game two back at Belmont and was beaten just 1-length by LADY ELI in the Diana. She should fire again, but like her stablemate, she’s a closer and can’t be left with too much to do. ROCA ROJO has been freshened since finishing an uncharacteristic 7th as the 2/1 favorite in the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day. Look for her to rebound here and run much better. DICKINSON, who beat LADY ELI at Keeneland in April, appears to be over the top and headed in the wrong direction.

Value Plays: ON LEAVE went to the lead in last year’s Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont and never looked back. We have to assume they’ll employ similar tactics today as nobody here will apply more than token pressure if someone takes initiative and goes to the front.

$50 Wagering Strategy:• $10 Trifecta: LADY ELI over ANTONOE over ROCA ROJO, ON LEAVE, DICKINSON ($30) • $5 Trifecta: ANTONOE over LADY ELI over ROCA ROJO, ON LEAVE, DICKINSON ($15)• $5 Exacta: LADY ELI over ANTONOE ($5)