travel and gas prices a look at the impact on rv visits to national parks ansmann, markus; booth,...
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TRAVEL AND GAS PRICESA LOOK AT THE IMPACT ON RV VISITS TO NATIONAL PARKSAnsmann, Markus; Booth, Lawrence; Firestine, Theresa; Laptev, Nikolay; Smedsrud, Berthe; Tang, Lingli
University of California Santa Barbara. Department of Economics
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Overview
Project Description Determine the relationship between national gas
prices and decline in RV visits to National Parks. Surprising results are found which contradict claims
made by several news posts, including the Denver Post.
Project Methodology Pre-Whiten. Granger Causality. Forecast
Key Findings/Results No evidence of impact of gas prices on RV N.P.
visits. Forecasted RV visits in the future.
Conclusion Possible explanation: Change of preferences.
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Project Description
Objective Discover relationship between RV visits to
National Parks. Results
No relationship between monthly gas prices and the monthly number of RV visits from 1983.01 to 2006.12
Suggests that the media’s claim of gas prices changing RV camper’s preferences is wrong.
Forecast
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Procedure/Methodology (1)
Fig1: (L to R) Month to month gas prices. Pre-whitened gas prices. To pre-whiten we take the log, season difference
and difference our data.
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Procedure/Methodology (2)
Fig2: Month to month changes in RV visits to national parks. The graph above includes both time series and pre-
whitened time-series.
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Key Findings/Results 1
Fig 3: We cannot reject the null based on the F stats and its critical value.
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Model Estimation/Result 2
Fig 4: Estimated, orthogonal, model for pre-whitened gas
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Model Estimation/Result 3
Fig 5: Suspect ARCH term (on the left) so we estimate a new model (on the right)
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Forecast of Gas Prices/Result 4a
Fig 6a: The goodness of fit of our model (in-sample forecast).
Fig 6b: Sample comparison of thegoodness of fit of our model. Units are in a relative metric.
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84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
SDLNGASINFORECASTGASINFORECASTGAS+(2*INSEFGAS2)INFORECASTGAS-(2*INSEFGAS2)
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SDLNGASINFORECASTGASINFORECASTGAS+(2*INSEFGAS2)INFORECASTGAS-(2*INSEFGAS2)
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Forecast of Gas Prices/Result 4b
Fig 6c: Forecasted gas prices including the 95% confidence interval
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84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
UPPERLOWER
GASGASF
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UPPERLOWER
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Fig 6d: Predicting gas will cost lessover the summer.
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Model Estimation/Result 5
Fig 6: Model for RV Campers
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Model Estimation/Result 6
Fig 7: ARCH not necessary
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Forecast of RV Visits/Result 7a
Fig 8a: The goodness of fit of our model.
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INRVCAMPFRVCAMPINRVCAMPF+(2*INSEFRVCAMP)INRVCAMPF-(2*INSEFRVCAMP)
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INRVCAMPFRVCAMPINRVCAMPF+(2*INSEFRVCAMP)INRVCAMPF-(2*INSEFRVCAMP)
Fig 8b: Sample comparison of thegoodness of fit of our model. Units are in number of campers per month
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Forecast of RV Visits/Result 7b
Fig 9a: Forecasted RV N.P. visits including the 95% confidence interval
Fig 9b: As expected, incrediblenumbers over the summer, and surprisingly low numbers in December.
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RVCAMPOUTRVCAMPFOUTRVCAMPF+(2*OUTSEFRVCAMP)OUTRVCAMPF-(2*OUTSEFRVCAMP)
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RVCAMPOUTRVCAMPFOUTRVCAMPF+(2*OUTSEFRVCAMP)OUTRVCAMPF-(2*OUTSEFRVCAMP)
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Conclusion
Change of preferences of RV National Park campers fuel the decline in visits per month.
Gas prices do not influence RV campers. Lowest visits to National Parks during the
month of December Gas prices expected to decline this
summer
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Questions and Discussion