transportation, technology and real estate back …...kpmg global survey, 800 auto executives how...

TRANSPORTATION, TECHNOLOGYAND REAL ESTATE

BACK TO THE FUTURE

Bill James, MAI

Mobile Devices

Shared resources

Congestion pricing

Cost Effective

Private Sector

Public Sector

Fixed Routes

Last Mile – First Mile

Transportation Management Associations

Drones

The Driverless Car Revolution

• Author – Rutt Bridges

• Successful energy tech entrepeneur

• Available on Amazon

• Very inexpensive

RoboTaxis: What, why, when?

• Two or four seat models, 24/7 mobility-on-demand

• Very cheap Uber with no “surge fees”

• Multi-lingual voice interface, great work space

• Primary mobility for some, second car for families

• As early as 2020, as late as 2025 (snow issue)

Low cost drives adoption

• Electric RoboTaxis28¢/mile (2 seats)40¢/mile (4 seats plus child seat, bike rack, extra storage)includes a 35% pre-tax profit for the operatorservices from Uber, GM/Lyft, Ford, Google, Mercedes?

• Barclay’s Capital: 8¢/passenger-mile, Columbia Univ: 13¢

Sources: Barclays Capital, May 2015; Columbia Univ, Jan 2013

The value proposition of RoboTaxis

• Safe, efficient transportation for half to a fourth the cost of owning a car

• Less congestion, faster commutes, less pollution

• No parking or vehicle ownership hassles

• Low-stress door-to-door service while you work, read, relax

First ride: The Google Car prototype

Mercedes concept limo

Local Motors 3D Printed Electric Bus

Test rides now available near

Washington DC

Pilot projects planned in

Miami-Dade and Las Vegas

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Consumer Reports, Driverless Car Revolution (35% pre-tax profit)

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000

CR median sedan RoboTaxi-solo RoboTaxi-ride share

Taxes

Interest

Insurance

Maintenance

Fuel

Depreciation

$3,360

$8,125

$1,680

Solo ride: Saves $4,765 per yearRide share: Saves $6,445 per year

Economics drives adoption: Cost per 12,000 miles

Why it matters: Family transportation budget

32%Housing

19%Transportation

13%Food

36%Other

Source: Federal Highway Administration

• Transportation is the second-largest drain on a family’s disposable income

• Early adopters: Millennials, seniors, low income, disabled community, “alcohol-impaired”

Why will RoboTaxis be electric?

• Fuel costs: unless gasoline falls below $1/gallon…

• Falling battery costs, 250+ miles range by 2020

• Long vehicle life reduces depreciation

• Low maintenance costs: 30,000 mile service interval

What RoboTaxis don't haveInternal combustion engine Starter Alternator Timing belts

Exhaust system Catalytic converter Oil, lines & filter Air intake filter

Transmission Gas tank Fuel pump Spark plugs

BMW i3 carbon fiber frame

Will RoboTaxis be safe?

• Google driverless road tests : 7 years, 1.64 million miles

• 3 million miles per day in simulators

• 18 minor accidents (14 rear-enders), one minor injury

• Google at fault only oncesoftware fix in all vehicles within 2 weeks

How important is safety?

• 38,300 died in 2015 / 4.4 million serious injuries

• Imagine a Boeing 737 crashing five days a week

• 94% of accidents are due to distraction, drowsiness, drunkenness, or driver error

• Driverless cars don’t suffer much from those problems

Sources: NHTSA, National Safety Council, Wikipedia

Google prototype: Sensors and redundancies

• 360 degree view out to 200 yards, updated every tenth of a second

• Redundant BRAKING, STEERING, and COMPUTING systems

• Working on software to detect hackers and other attacks

Who benefits the most from RoboTaxis?

• The public: $$$, free time, safety, congestion

• Taxpayers and government: Less road expansion

• The environment: Cleaner/greener, urban parks

• Developers: Redevelop parking space, provide more affordable housing with lower parking ratios

Benefits for lower-income communities

• 24/7 door-to-door service for far less than bus fare

• Faster commutes means more time with families

• Cheap, reliable transportation means better jobs

• On-demand, low-cost transportation for seniors, youth, the disabled, and everyone else

RoboTaxis and the environment

• Zero emissions, but some “long tailpipes”

• Better local air quality, much less noise

• The shift from coal to solar, wind, and natural gas

Parking: Re-use of Space

• Personally-owned vehicles sit parked 95% of the time

• A billion parking spaces for 253 million vehicles

• 31% of downtown cores are used for parking

Sources: UC Berkeley: Parking Infrastructure and the Environment, New Republic

Parking: How much space is wasted?

RoboTaxis’ impact on congestion

• Congestion due to accidents and road construction

• “Connected” RoboTaxis can bypass congestion

• Analytics can predict demand and preposition RoboTaxis

• Connected vehicles “platoon” in express lanes

What is Platooning?

1:30

Who is most at risk?

• Automakers, dealers, suppliers, …

• The global oil industry and “petro-nations”

• The auto insurance industry

• Parking lot owners, car rentals, taxis, local buses

KPMG Global Survey, 800 auto executives

How likely is a major business model disruption in the next five years?

2015: 12% 2016: 82%Extremely likely

Somewhat likely

Somewhat unlikely

Not likely at all

Neutral

36%25% 23%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Direct sales tocustomers

Sales viadealerships

Mobility serviceprovider

Manufacturevehicles for ITC's

Survey of 200 Global Automaker Executives

KPMG Survey: Most likely business models by 2025

Source: KPMG’s Global Automotive Executive Survey 2016

Automakers: Car sales or mobility services?

• Ford:CEO: “Become a mobility company, not just an automaker”$4.5 billion investment in electrified vehicle solutionsFord Smart Mobility LLC: Car sharing & “Uber cloning”

• GM:$1 billion acquisition of Cruise Automation$500 million to buy 10% of Lyft

• Daimler: Paid $100 million for RideScout, VW $300 million into Gett, Apple $1 billion into Didi Chuxing

Not if, but when…

First Technical Availability?nuTonomy: 2016 (Singapore) GM/Lyft: 2017 first trials

Google: 2018 Tesla: 2018

BMW/Baidu: 2018 (China) Volvo: 2018 (London, etc)In testing: Nissan, Mercedes, Ford, Honda, Audi, VW

U.S. availability: delayed by regulatory issues?Colorado availability: delayed due to snow?

Transit and the challenge of congestion

Local and state governments are strapped for cash at a time of major population growth and

increasing congestion.

Are there rational, cost-effective alternatives?

A growing problem

• Metro Denver growth: 3.1 to 4.1 million by 2040• Can we find billions to expand highways?

we can’t even find millions to maintain them!did more lane-miles fix Los Angeles?

• $2.06 billion: Current cost of metro area congestion• We must find new solutions

Sources: Colorado State Demographer, 2015 Urban Mobility Scorecard

Promoting ridesharing is critical

• 87% of U.S. trips are two or fewer passengers

• Nine out of ten commuters ride solo

• Low-cost two-person RoboTaxi ridesharingkeep it simple, minimize delays, 14¢/passenger-mile

70.1%

9.0% 7.4% 6.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.9%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Drovealone

Carpool PublicTransit

Work athome

Walk Bike Other

What can we do about SOV’s?

1.07 commuters per car, truck or van

7 out of 10 “carpools” only carry two people

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014

Source: International Sustainable Institute’s Commuter Toolkit poster

• Two hundred people clogging a street with their 177 cars

Why transit matters: Single-occupancy vehicles


• Without the cars they don’t take up much space…

Why transit matters: Single-occupancy vehicles

Business as usual won’t solve this problem


• And they all would fit in one rail car, RTD’s largest and most efficient electric vehicle!

Why don’t more people use public transit?

“…the travel time by public transit is almost twice the travel time by driving alone.”

U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration

Source: Census Transportation Planning Products

Reasons more people don’t ride buses

• “The bus takes me from where I’m not, to not quite where I want to go…"

• “I’d have to change buses”

• “I may need my car at the office"

• “My work schedule is too erratic"

• “Some people can be unpleasant travel companions”

Sources: Interviews and various studies

Subsidy impact on total service cost

Is there a better way to deliver transit services for far

less than $9.78 per passenger?

True cost of bus service including subsidiesFarebox

ratioLocal bus

fareSubsidy from

taxes and grantsTrue “total cost”

of a bus ride

0.21 $2.60 $9.78 $12.38

Replace buses with Free PPP Carpools

By 2020, 4-passenger RoboTaxis will be available for about 40 cents per mile. The private partner’s dispatch software

will arrange four-person carpools and manage the RoboTaxi fleet, providing on-demand 24/7 door-to-door service. By routing around congestion and platooning in HOV and bus lanes, transit times will be as good or better

than SOV’s. Passengers will be free to work or relax.

A ten-mile ride will cost RTD about $1 per passenger.

Personal security for RoboTaxi carpools

All trips will be videoed. A panic button or a cry of “Help!” will bring intervention by online-

counselors. After an initial warning, a moderately disruptive passenger will lose his right to a free

ride for a week.

If the incident is serious, intervention counselors will summon police to intercept the RoboTaxi.

Other advantages of carpools versus buses

• Bus subsidies cover the cost of free carpool rides:a single $10 local bus fare subsidy pays for up to 8 carpool riders plus 2 free rides to rail and express bus stationsthe expense and hassle of managing payments is eliminatedFREE is a huge motivation to use public transit!

• In 2012, the Free MallRide delivered 13% of RTD boardings

• The carpool fleet can be dynamically sized by using 2-seat RoboTaxis when demand is low

Feed more riders into rail and express buses

Using 14¢/passenger-mile RoboTaxis, feed rail or express bus riders within a 3 mile radius into transit stations. Provide coordinated just-in-time, round trip home-to-station service for an average cost of less than $1 per passenger. Use savings on bus subsidies to make this a FREE service.

Provide coordinated door-to-door mass transit

Let’s review why people wouldn’t ride buses

• Travel time is twice that of SOV’s: Now as good or better!

• “The bus takes me from where I’m not, to not quite where I want to go…” Door-to-door service

• “I’d have to change buses” Not any more…

• “I may need my car at the office” So, rent a RoboTaxi!

• “My work schedule is too erratic” Available 24/7 on-demand

• “People can be unpleasant…” Strong personal security measures

Sources: Interviews and various studies

Legal Issues – Airspace and Property Rights

• Cujus est solum, ejus est usque ad coelom – Whose is the soil, his it is up to the sky.

“That doctrine has no place in the modern world.” United States v. Causby, 328 U.S. 256, 261 (1946)

“The United States Government has exclusive sovereignty of airspace of the United States.” “A citizen of the United States has a public right of transit through the navigable airspace.” (49 U.S.C. §40103(a))

Navigable airspace – Airspace above the minimum altitudes of flight prescribed by FAA regulations, including airspace needed to ensure safety in takeoff and landing of aircraft. (49 U.S.C. § 40102(a)(32))

©2016 Lewis Roca Rothgerber Christie LLP / lrrc.com

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FAA claims broad authority to regulate airspace from the ground up to protect persons and aircraft in the air and persons and property on the ground. (49 U.S.C. § 40103(b)(2))

Question – What is the extent of the landowner’s right in the airspace above his or her property?

Existing body of law concerning airspace and property rights in the context of manned aircraft.

Analyses of similar issues related to UAS operations may build on these precedents.

When does drone flight constitute a trespass or a nuisance?


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United States v. Causby, 328 U.S. 256, 261 (1946)Takings claims related to aircraft takeoffs and landings over commercial chicken farm.“The landowner owns at least as much of the space above the ground as he can occupy or use in connection with the land.” “The superadjacent airspace at this low altitude is so close to the land that continuous invasions of it affect the use of the surface of the land itself. We think that the landowner, as an incident to ownership, has a claim to it and that invasions of it are in the same category as invasions of the surface.”“The airplane is part of the modern environment of life, and the inconveniences which it causes are not normally compensable under the Fifth Amendment. The airspace, apart from the immediate reaches above the land, is part of the public domain. We need not determine at this time what those precise limits are. Flights over private land are not a taking unless they are so low and so frequent as to be a direct and immediate interference with the enjoyment and use of the land.

Causby left unanswered many questions concerning the physical and legal extent of the landowner’s airspace interest as compared to navigable airspace and aircraft operations.


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Thompson v. City and Cnty. of Denver, 958 P.2d 525 (Colo. App. 1998)(for takings purposes, “the surface owner’s property interest in airspace above the land is generally limited to that airspace which is below navigable limits”)

Claassen v. City and Cnty. of Denver, 30 P.3d 710 (Colo. App. 2000)(“absent a physical invasion into the airspace above plaintiff’s property that is below navigable airspace, there can be no physical taking”)

Takings issue could arise in the context of public agency use of UAS

Takings cases may be helpful in understanding extent of surface owner’s airspace rights


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Trespass

“The elements for the tort of trespass are a physical intrusion upon the property of another without the proper permission from the person legally entitled to possession of that property. The intrusion can occur when an actor intentionally enters land possessed by someone else, or when an actor causes something else to enter the land.” Hoery v. United States, 64 P.3d 214, 217 (Colo. 2003)

“Flight by aircraft in the air space above the land of another is a trespass if, but only if, (a) it enters into the immediate reaches of the air space next to the land, and (b) it interferes substantially with the other’s use and enjoyment of his land.” Restatement (Second) of Torts, § 159, Intrusions Upon, Beneath and Above Surface of Earth

Applying Causby reasoning that the “landowner owns at least as much of the space above the ground as he can occupy or use in connection with the land,” question is whether drone flight over property interferes with the landowner’s use and enjoyment of that portion of the airspace to which he or she can claim a right.

Absent state statute, trespass claim may be decided on a case-by-case, factual analysis.


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Nuisance

Nuisance claim does not require entry onto property and could be based on actions on or over adjacent property. Hoery v. United States, 64 P.3d 214, 218 (Colo. 2003)

Restatement (Second) of Torts, § 821D, Private Nuisance, “A private nuisance is a nontrespassory invasion of another’s interest in the private use and enjoyment of land.”

Question – When does a drone flight over adjacent property constitute a nuisance?

Absent state statute, nuisance claim may be decided on a case-by-case, factual analysis.


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Legal Issues – Privacy and Data Collection

Traditional Privacy Claims

Intrusion upon seclusion

Public disclosure of private facts

Publicity which puts person in a “false light”

Appropriation of Likeness

Other Privacy Related Issues

News Gathering

Law Enforcement

Regulatory Actions

Activists

Commercial Competition


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Questions?

transportation, technology and real estate back …...kpmg global survey, 800 auto executives how...

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