transportation revenue update jan 2018 - vermont · 1/19/2018 · jul aug sep oct nov dec jan feb...
TRANSCRIPT
Transportation Revenue Update
Jan 2018 Neil Schickner / JFO
Transportation Fund Revenues FY18 Monthly Dec-17 Dec-17 Target vs Targets vs Target %
Cumulative Year to Date VS vs Dec-17 Target Targets Target %
12 Month Sum Year-over-Year
Gasoline tax + assessment 5,744,270 6,469,651 -725,381 -11.2% 39,905,794 40,644,233 -738,438 -1.8% -0,5% Diesel fuel tax 1,976,250 1,657,712 318,538 19.2% 10,115,528 9,239,354 876,173 9.5% 3.6% MV Purchase & Use tax 5,395,095 5,296,954 98,141 1.9% 35,243,524 34,377,777 865,747 2.5% 5.8% Motor Vehicle Fees 6,469,813 6,171,951 297,862 4.8% 40,854,768 40,635,304 219,464 0.5% 3.7% Other fees & taxes 2,709,333 1,842,457 866,876 47.1% 10,796,823 9,656,497 1,140,327 11.8% Total 22,294,761 21,438,724 856,037 4.0% 136,916,438 134,553,165 2,363,272 1.8% 3.5%
Month Monthly Jul 2018 Actual - Jul cum vs Jul 2017 Dec TFund revenue was +$856,037 = +4.0% above the July Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast forecast. Cumulative fiscal year to date revenue is +$2.36 mill =
Jul-16 20,126,390 20,060,816 65,574 65,574 +1.8% above target. The 12 month rolling sum of TFund revenue is Aug-16 23,834,990 23,889,582 -54,592 10,982 3.5% above the year ago level. Sep-16 26,620,114 25,357,398 1,262,716 1,273,699 Oct-16 23,002,334 23,583,039 -580,705 692,994 Nov-16 21,037,849 20,223,607 814,242 1,507,236 Dec-16 22,294,761 21,438,724 856,037 2,363,272 Jan-17 20,315,815 Feb-17 18,093,112 Mar-17 24,063,514 Apr-17 24,359,106 May-17 24,457,790 Jun-17 30,324,165 Sum 276,166,667 2,363,272
"TIB" Fund Revenues FY18 Monthly Cumulative Year to Date VS vs 12 Month Sum Dec-17 Dec-17 Target vs Targets vs Target % Dec-17 Target Targets Target % Year-over-Year Gasoline assessment 919,141 1,059,245 -140,104 -13.2% 6,389,914 6,626,353 -236,439 -3.6% -0.7% Diesel fuel assessment 184,204 197,986 -13,782 -7.0% 1,013,997 934,497 79,500 8.5% -11.4% Total 1,103,345 1,257,231 -153,886 -12.2% 7,403,911 7,560,850 -156,939 -2.1% -2.2%
Month Monthly Jul 2017 Actual - Jul Cum vs Jul 2017 Dec TIB revenue was -$153,886 = -12.2% below target. Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Cumulative fiscal year to date revenue is -$156,939 = -2.2%
Jul-16 1,225,666 1,146,803 78,863 78,863 below target. The 12 month rolling sum of TIB revenue is -2.2% Aug-16 1,267,307 1,324,626 -57,318 21,545 below the year ago level. Sep-16 1,413,368 1,375,975 37,393 58,938 Oct-16 1,192,792 1,257,049 -64,257 -5,319 Nov-16 1,201,433 1,199,167 2,266 -3,053 Dec-16 1,103,345 1,257,231 -153,886 -156,939 Jan-17 1,198,217 Feb-17 1,043,290 Mar-17 1,187,268 Apr-17 1,125,049 May-17 1,090,391 Jun-17 1,264,934 Sum 14,470,000 -156,939
JFO / Neil Schickner 1/18/2018
History of TFund & TIB Consensus Revenue Forecast FY 2018 As Available
1st Jul-13
2d Jul-14
3rd Jan-15
4th Jul-15
5th Jan-16
6th Jul-16
7th Jan-17
8th Jul-17
9th Jan-18
Actual Jun-18
Gasoline 86.2 77.0 77.7 77.5 78.3 78.6 78.4 78.1 78.1 Diesel 19.3 19.4 19.0 19.5 20.2 19.9 19.5 18.4 18.4 Purchase and Use 69.9 71.1 73.5 73.8 73.8 72.5 71.2 70.9 71.6 Motor Vehicle Fees 82.1 82.4 82.3 82.5 83.0 90.8 90.8 88.0 88.0 Other Revenue 20.6 20.7 21,0 21.0 19.7 20.2 19.8 20.8 21.5 Total Revenue 278.1 270.6 273.5 274.3 275.0 282.0 279.7 276.2 277.6 0.0 Chan se in total -7,5 2.9 0.8 0.7 7.0 -2,3 -3.5 1.4
TIB gas 25.4 20.7 16.6 14 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.9 TIB diesel 2.1 2.0 2.0 2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 TIB Total 27.5 22.7 18.6 16.3 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.9 0.0 Chan se in total -4.1 -2.3 -1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4
TFund + TIB 305.6 293.3 292.1 290.6 289.7 296.7 294.4 290.7 292.5 0.0 Chan se in total -12.3-1.2 -1.5 -0.9 7.0 -2.3 -3.7 1.8
History of TFund & TIB Consensus Revenue Forecast I FY 2019 1st
Jul-14 2d
Jan-15 3rd
Jul-15 4th
Jan-16 5th
Jul-16 6th
Jan-17 7th
Jul-17 8th
Jan-18 9th
Jul-18 As Available Gasoline 76.7
19.6 73.1 83.1 21.0
77.2 19.2 75.6 83.3 21.3
77.1 19.8 76.0 83.2 21.4
78.1 20.5 76.0 83.8 20.0
78.3 20.2 75.1 91.4 20.5
78.2 19.9 73.7 90.9 20.2
77.8 18.7 73.0 88.3 21.1
78.0 18.6 74.5 88.3 21.6
Diesel Purchase and Use Motor Vehicle Fees Other Revenue Total Revenue 273.5 276.6 277.5 278.4 285.5 282.9 278.9 281.0 0.0 Change in total 3.1 0.9 0.9 7.1 -2.6 -4.0 2.1
TIB gas 20.8 2.0
17.2 2.1
14.5 2.1
12.9 2.2
13.7 2.2
13.0 2.1
12.6 2.0
13.7 2.0 TIB diesel
TIB Total 22.8 19.3 16.6 15.1 15.9 15.1 14.6 15.7 0.0 Change in total -3.5 -2,7 -1.5 0.8 -0.8 -0.5 1.1
296.3 295.9 -0.4
294.1 -1,8
293.5 -0.6
301.4 7.9
298.0 -3.4
293.5 -4.5
296.7 3.2
0.0 TFund + TIB Change in total
Neil Schickner IJF0 1/18/2018
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
$300.0
$250.0
$200.0
a.-- $150.0
$100.0
$50.0
$0.0
Cumulative Total Transportation Fund Revenue
• FY16
• FY17 (
• FY18 __-
____
III iii ill I I Fl
Neil Schickner / JFO 1/18/2018
Nei
l Sch
ickn
er / J
FO
Gasoline Tax & Assessment Running 12 Month Total Revenue
$90.0
- $85.0
$80.0
$75.0
$70.0 co
$65.0
$60.0
$55.0
$50.0
$45.0
I
Effective Jun 1, 2013 Gasoline to included a fixed-cent-gallon a price-based component. phased in thru FY15
tax restructured component and
Implementation
-4—Gasoline Tax
Effect deposited fund. deposited
ve July 1 2004, 3.04 cents of the gas tax previously in the Ed fund is reallocated to the Transportation
At the same time, the portion of the P&U tax in the Ed fund is increased from 1/6th to 2/6ths
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Neil Schickner / JFO 1/18/2018
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DMV fees generally increased effective July 1, 2006
$90.0
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- $65.0 2
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DMV Fees Running 12 Month Total Revenue
DMV fees generally increased effective July 1, 2009
DMV fees generally increased effective July 1,2012
DMV fees generally increased effective July 1, 2002
DMV Fees
DMV fees genera ly increased effective July 1, 2016
Neil Schickner /JFO 1/18/2018
Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax - Source Total - 12 Month Rolling Total
1 1 , $110.0
$105.0 --*—P&U Tax - Source
$100.0
$95.0
$90.0
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$80.0
$75.0 2
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$65.0
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$55.0
$50.0
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$45.0
$40.0
$35.0
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Neil Schickner /JFO 1/18/2018
—*—Total Tfund Revenue
Norl
Total Transportation Fund Rolling 12 Month Total Revenue
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$210
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$118950 $
$180
Neil Schickner /JFO 1/18/2018
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TFund + TIB Fiscal Year Actual Revenue
$350
$300 $282 $280 $286
$274
$258
$228 $236
$245
$215 $204
$220 $223
$250
$206 $205
$184
$209 $210
$100
$50
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Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
Neil Schickner /JFO
1/18/2018
1 1— $500 I Fecierall Hi ighlivaylAid R4ceits - 12 Mont Rolling Totl - $480
- $460 Impact of disaster relief funding - $440
-$420
-$400
Impact of ARRA stimulus funding - $380
- $360
- $340
- $320
-$300 u) Impact of Jeffords SAFETEA-LU bill c
- $280 .2
- $260 ri
-$240
-$220
-$200
- $180
- $160
-$140
- $120
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Neil Schickner /JFO
1/18/2018
Federal Highway Aid Receipts vs TFund & TIB Revenue - 12 Month Rolling Total $440
$420
$400
$380
$360
$340
$320
$300
Blue - Fed$ spending
Green- TFund + TIB Revenue
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Neil Schickner / JFO 1/18/2018
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