transportation & logistics€¦ · industry update │ january 2015 logistics | shippers adjust...
TRANSCRIPT
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
0
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
PAGE |
www.harriswilliams.com
MARINE | PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION A BOON FOR MIDSIZE COMPANIES, TOO
WHAT WE’RE READING
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jeff BurkettVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jershon JonesVice President [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
LOGISTICS | SHIPPERS ADJUST SUPPLY CHAINS TO COPE WITH CONGESTION
LOGISTICS | WHAT TO DO WITH THE RETURNS?
TRUCKING | A COMEBACK FOR DEDICATED CONTRACT CARRIAGE
AIR | GLOBAL AIR FREIGHT TO GROW BY 4.5% IN 2015, SAYS IATA
From port congestion and new ocean alliances to driver shortages and rail serviceworries, the global supply chain is more fragile than at any point in recent memory.Three shippers discuss how they’re adjusting to the challenges.Journal of Commerce
The holiday season is now over and from all indications; it was a success for onlineretail. While all data has yet to be compiled, estimates show online retail salesincreased 15% to 18%. Meanwhile, estimates suggest U.S. in-store sales declined 7%to 10%, depending on source.Transport Intelligence
A crisis in trucking capacity is forcing shippers to embrace new strategies to keeptheir freight moving while maintaining customers’ delivery commitments. Toguarantee the trucks they need, many shippers are contracting with asset-basedproviders for dedicated carrier services. That’s a marked shift from the greaterreliance we’ve seen in recent years on brokered freight.Transport Topics
When the much-anticipated expansion of the Panama Canal is completed latenext year, cargo ships the size of aircraft carriers will ferry goods from LatinAmerica and Asia directly to East Coast ports and back. These ships — up to two-and-a-half times bigger than those currently allowed — will uproot trade patternsdeveloped over the last century and will affect nearly every sector of the U.S.economy.CFO
RAIL | AAR REPORTS INCREASED FREIGHT RAIL TRAFFIC FOR 2014
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported increased freight railtraffic for all of 2014, December and the week. Total combined traffic for 2014 onU.S. railroads was 28,673,776 carloads, containers, and trailers, up 1,233,184 units or4.5 percent over 2013 and the highest annual total since 2007.Association of American Railroads
RAIL | U.S. SHIPPERS PULL BACK ON INTERMODAL FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2010
U.S. intermodal shippers surveyed by an investment research firm pulled morefreight off intermodal trains and put it back on trucks during the third quarter thanvice-versa, the first time the survey tracked intermodal conversion losing groundsince 2010. Shippers said they expect to further decelerate their conversion ofloads to rail, but survey results suggest intermodal rails will ultimately beginregaining share over the next six to 12 months.Journal of Commerce
International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global air freight markets toexpand by 4.5% in 2015, outpacing the projected growth for world trade of 4%.The trade association formed by global airlines revealed that demand measuredin freight tonne kilometers (FTK) rose by 4.2% in November 2014 as compared tosame time in the previous year. Carriers in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regionshas experienced the most prominent growth, 5.9% and 12.9% respectively.Logistics Business Review
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M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
Date Sector Target Business Description Acquirer
Pending Logistics PODS Enterprises, Inc. Prov ides container-based moving and storage serv ices.Ontario Teachers' Pension
Plan
Pending LogisticsGENCO Distribution
Systems, Inc.
Prov ides product lifecycle and reverse logistics solutions in North
America and internationally. FedEx Corporation
Pending Logistics Charter Brokerage LLCNon-asset based third party logistics prov ider to the petroleum and
chemical industries.Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Pending Marine Horizon Lines, Inc.Engages in Jones Act container shipping with primary serv ice to ports
within the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.
Matson Navigation
Company, Inc.
Pending LogisticsNeovia Logistics
Serv ices, LLC
Provides third party contract logistics serv ices, including warehouse
management, fulfillment, and distribution solutions.
The Goldman Sachs Group
Rhone Capital L.L.C.
1/9/2015 Trucking Gardewine Group Inc.Prov ides regional less-than truckload, truckload, and specialized
truckload serv ices primarily in Manitoba and Ontario.Mullen Group Ltd.
1/5/2015 Logistics Freightquote.com, Inc.Largest prov ider of online freight brokerage serv ices in the United
States.
C.H. Robinson Company,
Inc.
12/16/2014 Logistics Bongo International, LLCProvides international e-commerce support serv ices, including duty
and tax calculations, export compliance, and currency conversions.FedEx Corporation
12/2/2014 Trucking Contrans Group Inc.Prov ides freight transportation serv ices in Canada and the United
States, including van, flatbed, waste, tank, dump, and logistics.TransForce Inc.
11/5/2014 LogisticsLogistics Management
Solutions LLC
Non-asset based third party logistics prov ider with particular strength
in the chemical and industrial manufacturing sectors.Transplace Inc.
10/24/2014 Trucking A&S Serv ices Group, LLCRegional for-hire and dedicated truckload carrier prov iding dry van
transportation, logistics, warehousing, and distribution serv ices.Celadon Group Inc.
10/15/2014 LogisticsTransportation Insight,
LLC
Full-serv ice, non-asset based third party logistics prov ider in North
America.Ridgemont Equity Partners
10/7/2014 Logistics i-parcel, LLC U.S.-based international e-commerce enabler and logistics company.United Parcel Serv ice,
Inc.
10/3/2015 TruckingLone Star Transportation,
LLC
Provides heavy haul and open-deck carrier serv ices in North
America.Daseke, Inc.
9/18/2014 TruckingTransport Investments,
Inc.
Asset-light company focused on providing flatbed, drop-deck,
specialized, and heavy-haul trucking and brokerage serv ices.
Yukon Partners
Revelstoke Capital
9/2/2014 LogisticsNew Breed Holding
Company
Provides complex, technology-enabled contract logistics for
companies in high-growth sectors.XPO Logistics, Inc.
8/29/2014 LogisticsJacobson Holding
Company, L.C.
Offers value-added warehousing serv ices in North America with
integrated domestic transportation management capabilities.
Norbert Dentressangle
S.A.
8/27/2014 Logistics Active Aero Group, Inc.Prov ides supply chain solutions to customers with sensitive or time-
critical freight, principally in the United States and Mexico.
Roadrunner Transportation
Systems, Inc.
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PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2015P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2011 – 2014E) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2014E – 2016P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2011 – 2014E) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2014E – 2016P)
7.7x
8.7x
9.5x
10.8x
11.5x
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
5.9%
6.6%
6.6%
7.6%
7.7%
Transportation
Equipment
Logistics Providers
Rail & Rail Services
Marine
Trucking
8.0%
8.7%
9.0%
14.0%
18.8%
Logistics Providers
Transportation
Equipment
Marine
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
6.0x
7.0x
8.4x
8.7x
10.1x
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
6.1%
7.6%
8.7%
10.0%
11.8%
Marine
Logistics Providers
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
10.3%
11.2%
11.6%
12.9%
13.7%
Transportation
Equipment
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
Marine
Trucking
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STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
(Indexed to January 13, 2014)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1/13/14 4/13/14 7/13/14 10/13/14 1/13/15
Logistics Providers Trucking Rail & Rail Services
Marine Transportation Equipment S&P 500 Index
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
(0.4%)
(0.3%)
(0.3%)
0.6%
8.3%
Marine
Logistics Providers
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
Transportation
Equipment
(18.6%)
4.1%
9.7%
12.8%
29.3%
Marine
Logistics Providers
Transportation
Equipment
Rail & Rail Services
Trucking
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OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup has experience across a broad range of sectors, including third-party logistics, rail and rail services, marinetransportation, transportation equipment, niche transportation, automotive and heavy duty vehicle, and airport andaviation services.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
2014 CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
and
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company ofa portfolio company of
has been acquired byhas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIRPORT & AVIATION SERVICES
5
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
IndustrialsBusiness Services
Building Products & Materials
Energy & Power
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Healthcare & Lifesciences
Consumer
PAGE |
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Transportation & Logistics
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
TEV Jan-15 Dec-14 Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-14 Jul-14 Current 2014E 2015P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company KSC $2,629 $2.52 $2.64 (4.6%) 3.7% $2.93 86.0% 8.4x 8.9x 8.3x NA NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 871 8.20 7.84 4.6% 5.8% 9.57 85.7% 5.6x 5.2x 5.0x 5.0x 4.7x
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 2,904 46.66 46.62 0.1% 8.5% 50.12 93.1% 8.2x 8.0x 8.4x 9.1x 8.6x
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 11,370 72.90 72.29 0.9% 26.3% 77.49 94.1% 13.0x 13.9x 14.9x 14.2x 12.7x
Deutsche Post AG 41,762 31.45 32.72 (3.9%) (11.5%) 33.65 93.5% 9.9x 9.7x 9.7x 7.9x 7.7x
DSV A/S 6,244 31.14 30.47 2.2% (4.6%) 31.17 99.9% 12.7x 12.0x 12.2x 11.9x 11.2x
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 623 26.75 27.67 (3.3%) 29.5% 30.18 88.6% 15.7x 14.7x 19.2x 14.0x 11.3x
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 7,390 43.61 44.67 (2.4%) 0.0% 47.24 92.3% 12.6x 12.4x 11.9x 11.6x 10.7x
FedEx Corporation 51,360 172.57 175.79 (1.8%) 21.0% 183.51 94.0% 7.4x 7.7x 8.0x 8.6x 7.5x
Forward Air Corp. 1,407 46.97 49.24 (4.6%) 5.8% 51.37 91.4% 11.8x 12.3x 11.5x 10.5x 9.2x
Hub Group Inc. 1,278 34.70 35.82 (3.1%) (17.9%) 51.47 67.4% 11.1x 13.0x 9.2x 11.2x 9.7x
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. 10,191 79.87 82.16 (2.8%) 0.8% 85.54 93.4% 12.1x 11.0x 11.5x 11.1x 9.9x
Kuehne + Nagel International AG 15,299 134.82 135.17 (0.3%) 0.8% 136.78 98.6% 14.0x 13.7x 14.8x 15.0x 14.2x
Landstar System Inc. 2,974 67.17 73.53 (8.6%) 15.8% 81.80 82.1% 13.3x 13.1x 13.1x 11.9x 10.7x
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. 2,864 134.23 135.69 (1.1%) (18.2%) 153.02 87.7% NM 19.1x 18.2x 15.3x 12.0x
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. 1,337 23.90 21.69 10.2% (17.2%) 29.82 80.1% 11.5x 11.3x 11.0x 11.0x 8.9x
Ryder System, Inc. 9,106 88.14 87.71 0.5% 20.7% 95.82 92.0% 5.3x 5.9x 5.8x 5.6x 5.2x
TransForce Inc. 3,458 25.01 24.93 0.3% 12.1% 25.37 98.6% 8.9x 9.9x 10.6x 9.9x 7.4x
United Parcel Service, Inc. 106,007 109.64 110.00 (0.3%) 6.9% 113.10 96.9% 11.4x 12.6x 13.3x 11.3x 10.3x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 974 25.17 28.45 (11.5%) (19.0%) 34.07 73.9% 9.9x 8.9x 8.8x 8.4x 7.3x
UTi Worldwide Inc. 1,786 11.85 11.07 7.0% (31.9%) 17.57 67.4% NM 18.0x NM 16.7x 18.7x
World Fuel Services Corp. 3,765 46.94 47.00 (0.1%) 4.1% 49.80 94.3% 11.3x 12.6x 12.1x 11.5x 10.5x
XPO Logistics, Inc. 3,333 38.77 37.32 3.9% 31.3% 42.55 91.1% NM NM NM NM 14.7x
Median (0.3%) 4.1% 92.0% 11.3x 12.1x 11.5x 11.2x 10.1x
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $1,021 $41.59 $44.00 (5.5%) 21.3% $47.52 87.5% 8.5x 7.8x 6.9x 6.6x 5.0x
Celadon Group Inc. 845 22.55 21.16 6.6% 10.5% 24.69 91.4% 7.7x 7.8x 8.3x 8.3x 6.9x
Con-way Inc. 2,899 44.93 47.08 (4.6%) 5.1% 53.54 83.9% 6.4x 6.7x 6.0x 5.5x 5.0x
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 722 28.61 27.89 2.6% 251.9% 29.50 97.0% 4.7x 5.7x 10.0x 8.5x 7.2x
Heartland Express, Inc. 2,305 26.29 25.78 2.0% 25.9% 27.96 94.0% 10.8x 11.1x 12.1x 9.5x 8.3x
Knight Transportation Inc. 2,732 33.22 32.11 3.5% 69.7% 34.69 95.8% 8.4x 9.7x 12.7x 11.1x 9.4x
Marten Transport Ltd. 733 21.22 20.65 2.8% 6.1% 25.71 82.5% 6.0x 6.5x 6.7x 6.3x 5.4x
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 6,494 73.33 77.84 (5.8%) 32.7% 81.48 90.0% 10.8x 10.7x 12.0x 11.2x 9.6x
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 449 53.06 49.76 6.6% 154.5% 55.11 96.3% 5.1x 6.1x 8.1x 7.5x 6.4x
Quality Distribution Inc. 605 8.88 9.90 (10.3%) (38.5%) 15.83 56.1% 10.6x 11.8x 8.8x 7.7x 6.6x
Saia, Inc. 1,319 51.03 54.19 (5.8%) 46.8% 57.60 88.6% 7.4x 8.8x 9.6x 9.1x 7.3x
Swift Transportation Company 5,366 27.99 28.15 (0.6%) 34.3% 29.44 95.1% 7.9x 9.2x 9.8x 8.9x 7.9x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 974 25.17 28.45 (11.5%) (19.0%) 34.07 73.9% 9.9x 8.9x 8.8x 8.4x 7.3x
USA Truck Inc. 411 28.67 22.52 27.3% 105.5% 28.75 99.7% 8.4x 7.2x 8.7x 7.2x 7.0x
Werner Enterprises Inc. 2,211 30.39 30.38 0.0% 19.8% 31.71 95.8% 6.3x 6.4x 7.3x 6.7x 6.0x
YRC Worldwide Inc. 1,540 19.57 23.27 (15.9%) 44.1% 29.21 67.0% 6.5x 12.2x 8.7x 7.0x 4.6x
Median (0.3%) 29.3% 90.7% 7.8x 8.3x 8.7x 8.0x 7.0x
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES CONT.
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $1,262 $49.18 $48.79 0.8% 11.8% $82.82 59.4% 5.7x 8.0x 6.2x 6.2x 5.6x
Canadian National Railway Company 60,359 66.20 63.95 3.5% 21.7% 72.08 91.8% 11.4x 12.8x 12.6x 12.4x 11.6x
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 34,235 177.81 177.24 0.3% 16.2% 207.48 85.7% 14.1x 15.1x 14.4x 13.7x 11.9x
CSX Corp. 42,340 33.91 34.84 (2.7%) 17.4% 37.99 89.3% 8.2x 8.8x 8.9x 8.9x 8.2x
FreightCar America Inc. 234 25.52 25.29 0.9% 0.9% 37.48 68.1% NM NM NM 11.5x 4.2x
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 6,063 82.36 84.39 (2.4%) (11.7%) 106.02 77.7% 12.4x 13.4x 11.0x 10.4x 9.3x
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,787 50.61 45.00 12.5% 45.9% 78.32 64.6% 8.4x 10.5x 6.9x 7.1x 4.7x
Kansas City Southern 14,714 113.30 109.62 3.4% (2.6%) 126.49 89.6% 15.4x 14.0x 13.6x 13.4x 11.7x
Norfolk Southern Corporation 39,176 101.97 101.55 0.4% 11.3% 117.64 86.7% 8.7x 9.2x 8.7x 8.6x 7.9x
Trinity Industries Inc. 7,384 25.93 26.99 (3.9%) (7.6%) 50.77 51.1% 7.6x 7.6x 5.6x 5.1x 4.9x
Union Pacific Corporation 110,949 113.97 112.55 1.3% 33.8% 123.61 92.2% 9.4x 10.1x 10.8x 10.5x 9.5x
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 8,386 83.90 84.91 (1.2%) 13.9% 92.20 91.0% 15.1x 15.0x 15.0x 14.3x 12.7x
Median 0.6% 12.8% 86.2% 9.4x 10.5x 10.8x 10.4x 8.7x
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $1,478 $14.54 $12.01 21.1% 33.9% $14.74 98.6% 15.0x 13.5x 15.3x 13.9x 10.8x
Costamare Inc. 2,904 16.38 18.22 (10.1%) (11.0%) 24.94 65.7% 12.3x 11.9x 9.4x 8.8x 8.8x
Diana Shipping Inc. 717 6.53 6.62 (1.4%) (46.4%) 13.93 46.9% NM 19.6x 16.5x 13.2x 9.4x
Kirby Corporation 5,260 80.67 86.84 (7.1%) (17.8%) 124.12 65.0% 11.1x 11.8x 8.2x 8.2x 7.9x
Matson, Inc. 1,649 34.91 34.74 0.5% 32.9% 36.73 95.0% 7.8x 8.7x 9.6x 7.9x 7.3x
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 5,790 0.68 0.63 7.2% (19.4%) 0.80 84.6% NM NM NM 19.7x 11.1x
Nordic American Tankers Limited 1,201 11.66 9.26 25.9% 18.3% 12.61 92.5% NM NM NM 14.1x 10.0x
Rand Logistics, Inc. 262 3.74 3.88 (3.6%) (34.4%) 7.49 49.9% 9.6x 10.1x 8.7x 8.2x 7.2x
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,767 68.76 70.38 (2.3%) (22.9%) 92.42 74.4% 11.1x 8.8x 7.7x 7.3x 6.3x
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 2,198 6.13 5.67 8.2% (33.4%) 7.90 77.7% NM NM 16.2x 5.4x 4.8x
Median (0.4%) (18.6%) 76.1% 11.1x 11.8x 9.5x 8.5x 8.4x
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $530 $4.63 $4.57 1.3% 10.0% $5.91 78.3% 11.9x 9.4x 7.7x 6.6x 5.8x
Dana Holding Corporation 4,067 21.57 20.15 7.0% 9.7% 24.82 86.9% 5.5x 6.3x 5.8x 5.5x 5.3x
Gentherm Incorporated 1,353 36.80 32.64 12.7% 44.8% 52.29 70.4% 11.4x 14.8x 10.9x 10.5x 9.1x
Spartan Motors Inc. 158 5.33 4.92 8.3% (20.1%) 6.87 77.6% NM 15.5x 14.1x 15.1x 8.0x
Wabash National Corp. 1,073 11.90 10.54 12.9% (7.9%) 14.91 79.8% 8.5x 8.4x 7.1x 6.5x 6.0x
Median 8.3% 9.7% 78.3% 10.0x 9.4x 7.7x 6.6x 6.0x
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
TEV Jan-15 Dec-14 Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-14 Jul-14 Current 2014E 2015P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES CONT.
9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015P 2016P '11-14E '14E-16P 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016P '11-14E '14E-16P
Transportation & Logistics
Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company KSC $4,775 $5,039 $4,873 NA NA NA NA NA $199 $254 $296 NA NA NA NA NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 730 607 580 581 589 619 (7.3%) 3.2% 181 163 158 176 186 191 (1.0%) 4.1%
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 1,384 1,632 1,643 1,806 1,757 1,831 9.3% 0.7% 203 296 307 328 344 345 17.2% 2.7%
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 10,336 11,359 12,752 13,452 14,729 15,681 9.2% 8.0% 720 751 731 804 895 969 3.8% 9.8%
Deutsche Post AG 68,631 73,191 75,859 68,449 69,777 72,446 (0.1%) 2.9% 3,384 4,129 4,719 5,260 5,432 5,979 15.8% 6.6%
DSV A/S 7,639 7,937 8,439 7,896 8,088 8,499 1.1% 3.7% 498 519 543 518 545 579 1.3% 5.7%
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 603 758 884 1,175 1,404 1,663 24.9% 19.0% 23 27 27 45 55 66 25.3% 21.0%
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 6,162 5,992 6,080 6,556 6,948 7,409 2.1% 6.3% 655 571 600 637 690 737 (0.9%) 7.6%
FedEx Corporation 39,304 42,680 44,287 45,371 47,700 50,474 4.9% 5.5% 4,506 5,367 5,597 6,023 6,869 7,884 10.2% 14.4%
Forward Air Corp. 509 558 626 783 854 928 15.5% 8.9% 97 104 107 134 154 166 11.4% 11.3%
Hub Group Inc. 2,752 3,124 3,374 3,552 3,750 3,945 8.9% 5.4% 112 134 138 113 133 151 0.1% 15.6%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. 3,678 4,058 4,527 6,176 6,848 7,540 18.9% 10.5% 658 759 830 916 1,035 1,156 11.6% 12.3%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG 17,351 18,699 19,290 21,376 21,872 22,915 7.2% 3.5% 1,038 979 1,070 1,018 1,079 1,144 (0.7%) 6.0%
Landstar System Inc. 2,628 2,771 2,665 3,157 3,435 3,724 6.3% 8.6% 204 223 201 250 278 302 6.9% 9.8%
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. 6,954 7,227 7,589 6,779 6,978 7,297 (0.8%) 3.8% 220 92 161 185 231 286 (5.6%) 24.3%
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. 844 1,073 1,361 1,826 2,130 2,397 29.4% 14.6% 53 81 111 121 147 170 31.5% 18.8%
Ryder System, Inc. 6,051 6,257 6,419 6,663 6,991 7,358 3.3% 5.1% 1,290 1,396 1,462 1,632 1,775 1,906 8.2% 8.1%
TransForce Inc. 2,378 2,822 2,620 3,168 3,821 3,924 10.0% 11.3% 313 392 317 350 464 493 3.8% 18.6%
United Parcel Service, Inc. 53,105 54,127 55,438 58,166 61,439 65,005 3.1% 5.7% 7,830 3,182 8,864 9,353 10,278 11,122 6.1% 9.0%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 991 1,037 1,033 1,187 1,251 1,303 6.2% 4.8% 84 96 105 116 136 146 11.5% 12.1%
UTi Worldwide Inc. 4,550 4,914 4,608 4,450 4,285 4,397 (0.7%) (0.6%) 183 213 146 106 97 180 NM NM
World Fuel Services Corp. 34,623 38,945 41,562 45,255 49,121 52,785 9.3% 8.0% 291 291 301 330 364 426 4.3% 13.5%
XPO Logistics, Inc. 177 279 702 2,285 4,171 6,041 NM NM 3 (20) (28) 76 239 389 NM NM
Total $276,154 $295,087 $307,211 $310,108 $327,940 $348,180 7.6% 6.6% $22,745 $19,999 $26,763 $28,490 $31,427 $34,785 8.0% 11.6%
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $1,908 $2,066 $2,300 $2,598 $2,798 $3,015 10.9% 7.7% $82 $70 $104 $154 $206 $223 23.2% 20.4%
Celadon Group Inc. 467 475 489 762 855 950 17.7% 11.7% 89 103 106 101 123 138 4.3% 16.7%
Con-way Inc. 5,290 5,580 5,473 5,816 6,184 6,609 3.2% 6.6% 386 428 427 522 579 632 10.6% 10.0%
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 512 527 539 704 739 790 11.2% 5.9% 63 71 65 83 100 113 9.5% 16.3%
Heartland Express, Inc. 529 546 582 888 938 991 18.9% 5.6% 132 138 149 241 275 298 22.2% 11.2%
Knight Transportation Inc. 697 752 792 1,090 1,270 1,411 16.0% 13.8% 169 184 192 245 296 327 13.2% 15.5%
Marten Transport Ltd. 604 638 659 676 733 788 3.9% 8.0% 97 101 110 116 134 144 6.3% 11.4%
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 1,904 2,135 2,338 2,780 3,129 3,531 13.5% 12.7% 326 396 460 577 671 780 21.0% 16.2%
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 284 298 313 409 435 NA 12.9% NA 29 41 50 60 71 NA 27.8% NA
Quality Distribution Inc. 628 719 805 991 1,032 1,096 16.4% 5.2% 70 74 73 80 90 98 4.2% 11.2%
Saia, Inc. 1,030 1,099 1,139 1,274 1,395 1,537 7.3% 9.8% 65 107 126 144 181 208 30.2% 20.2%
Swift Transportation Company 3,779 3,976 4,118 4,303 4,644 4,973 4.4% 7.5% 549 573 577 604 678 754 3.2% 11.8%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 991 1,037 1,033 1,187 1,251 1,303 6.2% 4.8% 84 96 105 116 136 146 11.5% 12.1%
USA Truck Inc. 411 409 444 607 631 687 13.9% 6.3% 33 20 35 57 58 69 20.1% 10.1%
Werner Enterprises Inc. 2,003 2,036 2,029 2,141 2,248 2,368 2.2% 5.2% 311 318 296 331 369 390 2.1% 8.5%
YRC Worldwide Inc. 4,869 4,851 4,865 5,102 5,386 5,651 1.6% 5.2% 49 198 205 226 335 416 NM NM
Total $25,905 $27,143 $27,919 $31,328 $33,667 $35,698 10.0% 7.7% $2,536 $2,917 $3,080 $3,658 $4,301 $4,737 14.0% 13.7%
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES CONT.
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015P 2016P '11-14E '14E-16P 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016P '11-14E '14E-16P
Transportation & Logistics
Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $519 $712 $751 $749 $842 $849 13.0% 6.5% $55 $145 $179 $203 $227 $239 NM 8.7%
Canadian National Railway Company 8,881 9,952 9,954 10,364 10,788 11,468 5.3% 5.2% 4,112 4,624 4,568 4,819 5,120 5,613 5.4% 7.9%
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 4,970 5,568 5,631 5,695 6,075 6,656 4.6% 8.1% 1,378 1,778 2,190 2,470 2,864 3,232 21.5% 14.4%
CSX Corp. 11,795 11,763 12,026 12,656 12,787 13,525 2.4% 3.4% 4,446 4,523 4,577 4,779 5,148 5,485 2.4% 7.1%
FreightCar America Inc. 487 677 290 581 832 893 6.0% NM 12 41 (8) 21 58 67 20.9% NM
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 829 875 1,569 1,639 1,749 1,856 25.5% 6.4% 252 277 533 580 651 706 32.1% 10.3%
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,174 1,736 1,685 2,209 2,605 2,815 23.5% 12.9% 97 152 145 252 382 448 37.3% 33.2%
Kansas City Southern 2,098 2,239 2,369 2,594 2,811 3,079 7.3% 9.0% 772 872 962 1,108 1,249 1,406 12.8% 12.7%
Norfolk Southern Corporation 11,172 11,040 11,245 11,671 12,127 12,620 1.5% 4.0% 4,073 4,036 4,169 4,544 4,924 5,230 3.7% 7.3%
Trinity Industries Inc. 2,938 3,812 4,365 6,123 6,640 6,434 27.7% 2.5% 575 751 963 1,469 1,517 1,463 36.8% (0.2%)
Union Pacific Corporation 18,508 19,686 20,684 23,955 25,381 26,998 9.0% 6.2% 7,341 8,505 9,223 10,563 11,688 12,784 12.9% 10.0%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 1,968 2,391 2,566 3,031 3,351 3,586 15.5% 8.8% 334 436 489 586 661 740 20.7% 12.3%
Total $65,339 $70,451 $73,136 $81,265 $85,988 $90,779 11.8% 6.6% $23,446 $26,139 $27,989 $31,395 $34,489 $37,412 18.8% 11.2%
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $6,965 $7,259 $6,335 $6,977 $7,121 $7,753 0.1% 5.4% $75 $85 $75 $111 $141 $155 13.8% 18.1%
Costamare Inc. 382 386 414 482 501 533 8.0% 5.2% 236 238 258 329 329 362 11.7% 4.8%
Diana Shipping Inc. 256 221 164 176 213 257 (11.7%) 20.9% 166 121 53 54 75 79 (31.2%) 21.3%
Kirby Corporation 1,850 2,113 2,242 2,495 2,452 2,629 10.5% 2.6% 445 509 582 640 665 716 12.9% 5.8%
Matson, Inc. 1,463 1,560 1,637 1,730 1,879 2,062 5.8% 9.2% 142 175 172 208 226 250 13.7% 9.6%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 9,211 9,512 8,831 8,713 9,007 9,382 (1.8%) 3.8% (90) 96 131 299 566 620 NM NM
Nordic American Tankers Limited 95 131 244 158 208 216 18.6% 16.8% 10 7 (22) 84 103 125 NM 22.0%
Rand Logistics, Inc. 98 109 119 155 153 161 16.6% 2.0% 16 28 25 32 36 39 26.7% 11.4%
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,032 1,308 1,247 1,322 1,393 NA 8.6% NA 155 164 197 240 288 NA 15.6% NA
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 309 395 325 2,611 2,610 2,733 NM 2.3% 147 227 154 410 455 499 NM 10.4%
Total $21,661 $22,993 $21,559 $24,819 $25,539 $25,724 6.1% 7.6% $1,301 $1,648 $1,626 $2,407 $2,884 $2,846 9.0% 12.9%
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $805 $795 $643 $700 $739 $744 (4.5%) 3.1% $74 $65 $43 $80 $90 $93 2.8% 7.7%
Dana Holding Corporation 7,544 7,224 6,769 6,600 6,699 7,207 (4.4%) 4.5% 720 753 698 744 760 857 1.1% 7.3%
Gentherm Incorporated 370 555 662 814 915 1,045 30.1% 13.4% 46 70 83 128 150 176 40.4% 17.3%
Spartan Motors Inc. 426 471 470 510 538 569 6.2% 5.7% 14 15 6 10 20 32 (9.5%) NM
Wabash National Corp. 1,187 1,462 1,636 1,856 1,954 1,962 16.1% 2.8% 33 108 142 162 179 191 NM 8.7%
Total $10,331 $10,506 $10,179 $10,480 $10,845 $11,528 8.7% 5.9% $888 $1,011 $972 $1,125 $1,199 $1,350 8.7% 10.3%
PAGE |
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2015
1. Capital IQ.
2. MergerMarket.
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DISCLOSURES
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