transportation economics today and the broader small ... · ©2017 paynet inc. 74. summary • us...

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Taking the RiskOut of Small

Business Lending

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Transportation Economics Today and the Broader Small Business Landscape

TEANA 2017 Annual Meeting

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Business Lending



The General State of Play for the US Economy and Transportation Sector

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Consensus Real GDP Growth Outlook for 2017 Growth by Prediction Month

Source: Emerging Markets Economic Data Limited

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US Real GDP Growth Outlook in the Second Quarter

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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US Real GDP Growth and Transportation Equipment Investment: 2001-17

Source: BEA

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US Real GDP Growth and Transportation Equipment Investment: 2012-17

Source: BEA

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Business Lending



The Small Business Economic Landscape

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May 2017

Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (3-Mo Rolling)

Source: SBInsights.com

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% Change vs. Year Prior

May 2017

Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI % Change vs. Year Prior (3-Mo Rolling)


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Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index 31-90 %

31-90 Days Past Due

May 2017



SBDI 91-180 Day % vs. Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI

Source: PayNet



Business Lending



Two Major Macroeconomic Trends Begin to Unwind


Importance of Declining Commodity Prices and Rising US Dollar: 2017

Food and energy prices have generally stabilized or risen since early 2016, although material volatility also present

US dollar, despite definite volatility, has generally been within a small range since early 2016

Source: IMF, Federal Reserve



Business Lending



Where Is Strength and Weakness in Small Business Originations Today?


Industries with Weakest SBLI Growth: December 2016

Agriculture Finance Health Care Mining Transportation


Industries with Strongest SBLI Growth: May 2017

Food Admin Arts Construction Info


SBLI 6 Month Annualized Growth Rate by State: May 2017



SBLI 6 Month Annualized Growth Rate by State: May 2016



Change in SBLI Growth 3 Month Annualized to 6 Month Annualized




Business Lending



What Is the State of Play of Small Business Defaults Today?


Small Business Default Index by Industry: May 2017

Food Entertainment Finance Manufacturing Prof Services Retail OVERALL

Admin Construction Health Care Mining Public Admin Transportation

Agriculture Education Information Other Real Estate Wholesale


Small Business Default Index by State: May 2017



Annualized Change in SBDFI by State over the Last Six Months



Difference Between Current SBDFI and 2005-06 Average



County-Level Borrower Weighted Probability of Default: April 2017



One Year Change in County-Level Prob. Of Default: April 2017



One Year Change in County-Level Prob. Of Default: April 2016




Business Lending



What Is the State of the US Transportation Industry?


Important Macro Trends for the Transportation Industry

Source: BEA, EIA


Transportation Industry SBLI Growth Rate: May 2017



Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Transportation)



Small Business Default Index by State (Transportation): May 2017



Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Transportation)



County-Level Probability of Default (Freight Transpo.): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Freight Transpo.): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Freight Transpo.): April 2016



County-Level Probability of Default (Transpo. Support): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Transpo. Support): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Transpo. Support): April 2016




Business Lending



What Is the State of the US Manufacturing Industry?


Manufacturing Industrial Production: 1972-2017

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System


Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate: 1972-2017



SBLI 6 Mo Annualized Growth Rate by State (Manufacturing): Jan 2017



Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Manufacturing)



Small Business Default Index by State (Manufacturing): May 2017



Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Manufacturing)



County-Level Probability of Default (Manufacturing): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Manufacturing): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Manufacturing): April 2016



Motor Vehicle and Aerospace Industrial Production: 1990-2017



Motor Vehicle Production by Vehicle Type: 1979-2017



Share of Motor Vehicle Production by Vehicle Type: 1979-2017



Motor Vehicle and Aerospace Capacity Utilization Rate: 1990-2017



County-Level Probability of Default (Motor Veh. Parts Mfg): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Mot. Veh. Parts Mfg.): April ‘17



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Mot. Veh. Parts Mfg.): April ‘16



County-Level Probability of Default (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Lev Prob. Of Dft (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April ‘17



One Year Chg in Cty-Lev Prob. Of Dft (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April ‘16




Business Lending



What Is the State of the US Health Care Industry?


SBLI 6 Mo Annualized Growth Rate by State (Health Care): May 2017



Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Health Care)



Small Business Default Index by State (Health Care): May 2017



Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Health Care)



County-Level Probability of Default (Health Care): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Health Care): April 2017



One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Health Care): April 2016




Business Lending



Where Are Sources of Greatest Trade Risks?


Largest Imports to US by Product in 2016

Source: US Census Bureau


Largest Exports from US by Product in 2016



Biggest Importers to US by Country in 2016



Biggest Receivers of Exports from US by Country in 2016



Countries with Largest Trade Deficits with US in 2016



Summary

• US economic growth likely to finish 2017 in the 2.0%-2.5% range• Recent indicators for small business statistics indicate they can

contribute to economic growth given healthy financial conditions, but willingness is still a question

• Some default rate normalization to be expected as economic recovery moves into its ninth year

• The worst appears to be over with the transportation sector, although financial risk still remains elevated in some subsectors of the industry

• Trade risks appear to be wide ranging, but difficult to say which sectors will be targeted next given multitude of variables involved

transportation economics today and the broader small ... · ©2017 paynet inc. 74. summary • us...

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