Transportation and Climate Change: Transportation and Climate Change: Real Solutions for Greenhouse Gas Real Solutions for Greenhouse Gas

MitigationMitigation

David L. GreeneDavid L. Greene

AASHTO Annual MeetingAASHTO Annual Meeting

October 25, 2009October 25, 2009

Palm Desert, CaliforniaPalm Desert, California

WARNING:WARNING:““The energy future which we are creating is unsustainable.The energy future which we are creating is unsustainable. If we If we continue as before, the energy supply to meet the needs of the world continue as before, the energy supply to meet the needs of the world economy over the next twenty-five years is too vulnerable to failure economy over the next twenty-five years is too vulnerable to failure

arising from under-investment, arising from under-investment, environmental catastropheenvironmental catastrophe or sudden or sudden supply interruption.”supply interruption.”

International Energy Agency, ParisInternational Energy Agency, ParisWorld Energy Outlook 2006World Energy Outlook 2006

“The projected rise in emissions of greenhouse gases in the Reference “The projected rise in emissions of greenhouse gases in the Reference Scenario puts us on a course of doubling the concentration of those Scenario puts us on a course of doubling the concentration of those

gases in the atmosphere by the end of this century, entailing an gases in the atmosphere by the end of this century, entailing an eventual global average temperature increase of up to 6%.”eventual global average temperature increase of up to 6%.”

International Energy Agency, ParisInternational Energy Agency, ParisWorld Energy Outlook 2008World Energy Outlook 2008

Climate change means change Climate change means change for transportation.for transportation.

• What is the GHG challenge for transportation?

• Can we do it?

• What do we know will work?

• What are we not so sure about?

• What does this mean for AASHTO and its members?

Society has three main energy goals.Society has three main energy goals.• Greenhouse gas mitigation

– Stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations at levels that will avoid dangerous climate change = 50% to 80% reduction by 2050.

– North American motor vehicles emit more GHGs than any country in the world, except China (and the U.S.).

• Sustainable energy– Energy resources enabling future generations to achieve a level of well

being at least as good as our own– Energy for 2 billion cars, or more, by 2050!

• Oil independence– Eliminate “restraining or directing influence of others” due to the economy’s

(transportation system’s) dependence on oil.– Insure that oil dependence costs are less than 1% of GDP with 95%

probability by 2030 = increased supply + decreased demand = 11 mmbd.

WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION’S “FAIR SHARE”?WHAT IS TRANSPORTATION’S “FAIR SHARE”?A C-price that would cut utilities C emissions in half by 2030 A C-price that would cut utilities C emissions in half by 2030 ($50/tCO($50/tCO22) would have a modest impact on transportation ) would have a modest impact on transportation

emissions ($0.50/gal.). (EIA, 2006).emissions ($0.50/gal.). (EIA, 2006).

Energy Information Administration Analysis of Alternative GHG Reduction Policies ($30/tCO2 in 2010, $50/tCO2 in 2030)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

Me

tric

To

ns

CO

2 E

qu

iva

len

t

Transportation Reference

Transportation $50/tCO2

Electric Power Reference

Electric Power $50/tCO2

Why is transportation Why is transportation differentdifferent??• Interdependent with land use, spatial

structure “markets”.

• Governments’ huge role in infrastructure investment, regulation, operation.

• Important market “imperfections”– Externalities– Oil market monopoly behavior– Energy efficiency and uncertainty/loss aversion

bias

• Technology and energy “lock in”

Changing petroleum dependence of the ICE Changing petroleum dependence of the ICE transportation system is not easily done.transportation system is not easily done.

Transportation Energy Use, 1950-2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: USDOE/EIA, AER 2007 table 2.1e, MER March, 2009 table 2.5

Qu

ad

s

Other

Petroleum

But, Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded But, Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded that a comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could that a comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could

cut U.S. transportation emissions in half by 2030.cut U.S. transportation emissions in half by 2030.

Sources of Transportation GHG Reductions, 2015 and 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

To

tal

< S

um

of

Co

mp

on

en

ts

Information andEducation.

SystemsInfrastructure

PricingCarbon CapHydrogenLow-Carbon Fuels

Air Efficiency

Heavy Duty Truck Effic.

LDV Efficiency

2015 2030

Source: Greene and Schafer, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, May 2003.

Some policies we know will work.Some policies we know will work.

• Fuel economy standards. ✔• Policies that increase the price of energy

or carbon.– C tax or C cap-and-trade– Energy taxes– PATP insurance, etc.

• Subsidies for clean vehicles or energy sources. ✓

CAFE standards decoupled vehicle travel and fuel use, CAFE standards decoupled vehicle travel and fuel use, today saving US motorists 75 billion gallons/year.today saving US motorists 75 billion gallons/year.

Miles of Travel and Fuel Use by Light-duty Vehicles: 1965-2007

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ve

hic

le M

iles

(m

illio

ns

)

-10000

40000

90000

140000

190000

240000

Ga

llon

s (

mill

ion

s)

Vehicle Travel

Fuel USe

Other policies we are less sure of.Other policies we are less sure of.

• Land use, spatial structure and travel demand.– Some notable successes but isolated– NRC report says 1% to 11% by 2050

• Feebates

• Low carbon fuels standard

• Government sponsored RDD & D

• ENERGY TRANSITION POLICIES

Where does AASHTO fit in?Where does AASHTO fit in?

• Education, information, behavior.

• Improving system efficiency.

• Pricing transportation.

• Contributing to land use and infrastructure solutions.

• Assisting with the energy transition.

Transform the motor fuel tax to a Transform the motor fuel tax to a user fee on transportation work.user fee on transportation work.

• PHYSICS: work is the application of force over a distance (moving something).– Transportation IS work.

• PHYSICS: Energy is the ability to do work.– No energy, no work, no transportation.

• Holding efficiency (work/energy input) constant, energy use is directly proportional to transportation work.

Inflation (3.7%/yr.) caused the greatest loss of real highway Inflation (3.7%/yr.) caused the greatest loss of real highway revenue, followed by fuel economy increases (2.7%/yr.), revenue, followed by fuel economy increases (2.7%/yr.),

followed by alternative fuels (ethanol).followed by alternative fuels (ethanol).

National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission Briefing Paper 04-05, 2007.

Given our energy problems, a Given our energy problems, a VMT tax is the wrong solution.VMT tax is the wrong solution.

• Convert the motor fuels tax to a transportation work user fee. Tax ALL transportation energy.

• Index the tax rate to the average energy efficiency of vehicles on the road.

• Index the tax rate to a relevant inflation index.• Encourage energy efficiency improvement,

reducing GHG emissions.• Reduce VMT via energy cost per mile.• Congestion charging, too.• Carbon pricing, too.

Where does AASHTO fit in?Where does AASHTO fit in?

• Education, information, behavior.

• Improving system efficiency.

• Pricing transportation.

• Contributing to land use and infrastructure solutions.

• Assisting with the energy transition.

Thank you.Thank you.

A 2007 MIT study predicts MPG gains of 80-85% for A 2007 MIT study predicts MPG gains of 80-85% for model year 2030 vehicles via continuous improvement model year 2030 vehicles via continuous improvement of conventional technology at a rate of 2-2.5%/year.of conventional technology at a rate of 2-2.5%/year.

Potential for Advanced Technologies to Increase Fuel Economy by 2030

31.2

49.9

58.2 56.8

90.8

25.5

42.1

51.546.4

86.0

20.4

32.0

40.637.9

58.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 Base 2030 Adv. 2030 Diesel 2030 Turbo SI 2030 Hybrid

EP

A C

om

bin

ed

MP

G

Camry 2.5L

Camry 3.0

F-150 Pick-up

Source: Kasseris & Heywood, SAE Technical Paper 2007-01-1605, April, 2007.

Leaving the envelope of the Earth’s experience

Unless our climate models are very wrong, we are about Unless our climate models are very wrong, we are about to boldly go where no human has gone before.to boldly go where no human has gone before.

Chances are, we won’t likeit there. Can we avoiddangerous climate change?

Among energy Among energy end use end use sectors, transportation is the largest emitter sectors, transportation is the largest emitter of COof CO22, almost as large as electric power. U.S. transportation vehicles , almost as large as electric power. U.S. transportation vehicles

emit more than any nation in the world except China.emit more than any nation in the world except China.

Source: USDOE/EIA, Annual Energy Review 2008, table 12.2.

Primary Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector: 1980-2006

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s C

O2

Electric Power

Transportation

Industry

Buildings

Highway vehicles, especially passenger cars and Highway vehicles, especially passenger cars and light trucks, account for most (78%) transportation light trucks, account for most (78%) transportation

C emissions.C emissions.Transportation GHG Emissions by Mode, 2005

Passenger Cars31%

Light Trucks27%

Heavy Trucks

19%

Buses1%

Aircraft9%

Ships & Boats

3%

Rail3%

Other7%

Source: USEPA, 2007, U.S. GHG Inventory, table 2-17.

The fuel economy standards for new passenger cars and light The fuel economy standards for new passenger cars and light trucks drove improvement in light-duty fuel economy in the US.trucks drove improvement in light-duty fuel economy in the US.

New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and CAFE Standards

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mile

s p

er

Ga

llon

Passenger Car

Car CAFE

Light Truck

Truck CAFE

According to FHWA data, on-road fleet average fuel According to FHWA data, on-road fleet average fuel economy followed the new vehicle improvements with a lag economy followed the new vehicle improvements with a lag

of about 10 years.of about 10 years.Fuel Economy Of New Light-Duty Vehicles

Versus On-Road Fleet MPG, 1975-2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mile

s p

er

Ga

llon

New Vehicle On-Road MPG

On-Road Fleet MPG

Efficiency improvement alone will Efficiency improvement alone will not be enough.not be enough.

Today’sTechnology

Advanced ICEsAdvanced Hybrid

PHEV30 / Fuel Cell

Battery Electric

To reduce transportaton GHG emissions by To reduce transportaton GHG emissions by 70-80% by 2050, transportation must 70-80% by 2050, transportation must transition to low carbon electricity or transition to low carbon electricity or

hydrogen.hydrogen.Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions of Advanced Vehicle Technologiess

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006

Base

2030

NA S

I

2030

Turb

o SI

2030

Die

sel

2030

HEV

2030

PHEV10

2030

PHEV30

2030

PHEV60

2030

H2 F

CV

2030

BEV

gC

O2/k

m

Tank-to-Wheels

Well-to-Tank

Source: Kromer & Heywood, 2007. Assumes H2 from natural gas, electricity is EIA 2030 mix.