Jennifer Morgan, Director Climate and Energy Program

Transport in the context of COP 17 in Durban: What’s next?

Transportation Contributes ~20% of Global CO2 Emissions

Non-Transport CO2

22.7 billion metric tons

Transport CO2

6.6 billion metric tons

Global CO2 Emissions

Source: IEA, 2010

Non-Transport CO2: 22.8

billion metric tons

Transport CO2: 6.6 bil-lion metric tons

Sales

Growth in Transportation sector liquids consumption is significant

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2011

• Agreement to a second commitment period that will start 1/1/13

• Target to be finalized at CMP8• Commitment period of [5][8] years

Agree to amend Kyoto Protocol Art. 3.1 with target and/or ranges from Parties

• Takes note of amendments in Durban• Adopt amendments at CMP8 in 2012• Agreement on rules on LULUCF (with work

programme to explore land-based accounting and additional LULUCF activities under CDM); greenhouse gases (expanded to SF6 and NF3); GWPs; inventories (2006 IPCC Guidelines); flexibility mechanisms (with a provision to review commitment period reserve). Continue discussions on carryover of AAUs

Kyoto Amendments

KP Parties with no target in CP2 could voluntarily apply amended KP rules (no decision to do so in Durban)

• Decisions to clarify targets and actions

Pledged targets and actions in COP decision with greater information

• Finance: Launched GCF and Standing Committee ; minor steps on long-term finance and transparency

• MRV: Guidelines and processes for biennial reports, NatComms, IAR, ICA; enhanced support

• Steps to operationalise NAMAs registry• Adaptation: Progress on NAP guidelines and

support; Adaptation Committee; Loss and Damage; Nairobi Work Programme

• Progress on technology• Decision to have a new market mechanism

Operationalisation of Cancun Agreements and Bali Action Plan

• Ad hoc working group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

Process to conclude negotiations on a legally binding instrument, protocol or agreed outcome with legal force by 2015

Kyoto Protocol Track LCA track

Adop

t LB

I with

pos

t-20

20

LBCs

Implement Post-2020 binding commitments

Negotiate LBI, including post-2020 binding

commitments

1st periodic Review

Road

map

for L

BI

Prompt-start application +ratification + entry into force of new LBI

COP17 COP18 COP19 COP20 COP21 COP22 COP23 COP24 COP25 COP26 COP27 COP28

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

KP CP2

IMMEDIATE actions to increase mitigation ambition between 2011 and

2020: submissions and workshops Wok

rpla

n fo

r am

bitio

n

Dec

isio

n to

am

end

KP

KP CP2 = Kyoto Protocol, Second Commitment PeriodLBI = Legally binding instrumentLBC = Legally binding commitments

KP CP2

IMPLEMENTATION of Kyoto Protocol and Cancun Pledges

Opportunities for Transport

Sustainable Low Carbon

Transport

GCF

NAMAs

NamasRegistry

LEDs

Tech mech

Types of Mitigation Actions

Mitigation Actions

GHG-Framed Mitigation

Actions

Emissions Intensity

Reductions

Carbon Neutrality

Goals

Absolute Emissions

Reductions

From a Base Year

From Business As Usual

Other Mitigation

Actions

Non Annex I Actions

Absolute relative to

BAUAbsolute relative

to base year IntensityCarbon

Neutrality Bottom-Up NAMAs

Brazil Antigua and Barbuda China Bhutan Algeria Ghana

Chile Marshall Islands India Costa Rica Argentina Indonesia

Indonesia Republic of Moldova Maldives Armenia JordanIsrael Papua New Guinea Benin Madagascar

Mexico Botswana MauritiusPapua New Guinea Brazil MauritaniaRepublic of Korea Cambodia MongoliaSingapore Cameroon Morroco

South Africa Central African Republic Peru

Chad San Marino Colombia Sierra Leone Congo Tajikistan

Cote d'Ivoire Macedonia Ethiopia Togo Eritrea Tunisia

Gabon

Submitted NAMAs

Mexico

South Africa

Where to focus

• Engage in national level LEDs debate• Engage in NAMAs identification and

formulation– Clarifications due on 1 March

• Seek opportunities through registry, technology mechanism and GCF developments.

Thank you

jmorgan @wri.org