transport coal or transmit electricity? comparative hybrid lca
DESCRIPTION
Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCA. Joule Bergerson, Lester Lave, Chris Hendrickson, Scott Matthews, Alex Farrell Carnegie Mellon University Thursday September 25, 2003. US Coal Supply and Population. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Transport Coal or Transmit Electricity? Comparative Hybrid LCAJoule Bergerson, Lester Lave, Chris Hendrickson, Scott Matthews, Alex FarrellCarnegie Mellon UniversityThursday September 25, 2003
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US Coal Supply and PopulationA ton of coal is shipped by rail an average distance of 800 miles
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Life Cycle of Coal-Fired Electricity
Transmission
Distribution &Use
Coal Mining
Cleaning
Transportof Coal
-PM, CO and S-dust-erosion-waste-subsidence-safety issues
-PM, CO and S -waste
-coal dust-safety issues-road wear-coal losses
-PM, CO2, SOx, NOx-thermal discharge-ash sludge-water consumption
-resources (land, coal etc.)-equipment-labor
-water-equipment-labor
Generation
-rail system-locomotives -freight cars-fuel consumption-labor
-facility (materials, land etc.)-water-labor
-EMF-noise
-resources -structure materials-land -labor
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ToolsLife Cycle Analysis SETAC Society of Environmental Toxicology and ChemistryBasic Framework for LCADisadvantage: Time consuming and costlyEIOLCA Economic Input-Output Life Cycle AnalysisUS I-O tables with Environmental ImpactsDisadvantage: AggregationIECM Integrated Environmental Control ModelCustomized power plant designDisadvantage: does not include all phases of life-cycle
Solution: Hybrid Approach
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EIOLCA example: Transmission Construction1.Determine total economic input from sectorPrices Vary but $1 billion is a rough estimate
2.Find IO categoryOther new construction (110900) Major Group 16: Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction ContractorsSIC 1623 Water, Sewer, Pipeline, And Communications And Power LineTransmission line construction-general contractors
$ 1 Billion Other New Construction
EIOLCA Model
Output
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EIOLCA OutputSource: www.eiolca.net
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Base Case AssumptionsPower Plants identical (SUPC 40% efficiency, 75% capacity factor) Therefore base production ignored for comparison1000 MW (plus compensation for 7% transmission line losses)Approximately 1000 milesNo siting difficulties or grade crossing upgradesCapitalRail minimal new track capacity, new trainsTransmission new HVDC lines, substationsAmortized over life of investment (cost of capital 8%)
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Base Case Economic Results
Chart2
1692
6821
83
71
991181113919
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($ million)))
BCeconomics
Rail-+Transmission-+
Capital1692
O&M6821
Fuel/Coal83
Externalities71
Total991311118199
BCeconomics
00
00
00
00
001113919
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($million)
BCenv
0000
0000
0000
0000
Capital
O&M
Fuel/Coal
Externalities
Scenarios
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500
Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800
Scenarios
2500052000
160003600
7600026000
13000540
100001700
1100040000
&L
B-1
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT
MorePower
Rail-20%diff20%diffTransmissionTrans+/-20%Trans+20%0.2004662005
Base Case98118-0.20053374
New Construction011896.5144.321.526.3
29880.1810.2000101021119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3New Construction
511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3
10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3
15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3
20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3
Grade Crossings09880.18185494170.1999995461119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3
512299.81828105570.1999990158149.11118398520.200000483811896.5144.3
7132108.00001999360.1999998167161.33348365330.200000922411896.5144.3
9140114.5455052040.1999995622171.11114478850.200000194811896.5144.3
10146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3
11151123.54547774680.1999998141184.55571141190.200000836111896.5144.3
Cost of Fuel$2/gallon108
$4.5/gallon130
$6/gallon143
$7/gallon152118
Cost of Capital3%9269
4%9378
5%9487
6%9597
7%97107
Grade Crossing
RailTransmission
Carbon Mgmt$5/ton
$10/ton
$15/ton
$20/ton
Environmental ExternalitiesBase Case98118
low est.102130
mean est.127160
high est.180207
Env Externalities
MorePower
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
00000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
-20%
20%
Fraction of System Requiring New Rail (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
Sheet1
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
Fraction of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
00
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($ million)
Delivered Power (million MWh)Rail-20%20%Transmission-20%20%
Base Case6.69817.8181400111.384616606421.7778340584-1.27272573511821.4545378461.384615569326.2223068309-1.2727253528
Case 19.614025.4544947961.384616420931.1111447885-1.272726628617030.90896606531.384617487837.7777920808-1.2727270474
Case 21928050.90898959191.384616420962.222289577-1.272726628627049.09069004921.38461770860.0001287056-1.2727259963
Case 31201800327.27162331131.3846171411400.0017465759-1.27272467451600290.90832718761.3846167516355.55594044-1.2727266286
Case 42303700672.72538760831.3846168438822.2244869025-1.27272563383300599.9980057471.3846171153733.3355400896-1.2727254821
0021.777834058417.81814001126.222306830921.454537846
0031.111144788525.45449479637.777792080830.9089660653
0062.22228957750.908989591960.000128705649.0906900492
00400.0017465759327.2716233113355.55594044290.9083271876
00822.2244869025672.7253876083733.3355400896599.998005747
Rail
Transmission
Delivered Power (million MWh)
Annual Cost ($ million)
nFuel Price ($6-7/gallon)
nCost of Capital (3-4%)
nDistance (~700 miles)
nCarbon Management Tax (as little as $5/ton)
ScenarioBase CaseBreak Even Value
Fuel Price$0.9/gallon$6-7/gallon
Cost of Capital8%3-4%
Distance1000 miles~ 700 miles
Carbon Tax$0as little as $5/ton
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Scenario: New Rail Construction
Chart2
9811896.5144.300
11411896.5144.380.181119.7778340584
12911896.5144.393.2727168828139.3334358263
14611896.5144.3105.5454734958157.666768662
17811896.5144.3119.4545665751178.4446032166
11896.5144.3145.636429284217.5557546344
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
-20%
20%
Percent of System Requiring New Rail (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)))
BCeconomics
Rail+-Transmission+-
Capital1692
O&M6821
Fuel/Coal83
Externalities71
Total991311118199
BCeconomics
00
00
00
00
001311199
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($million)
BCenv
0000
0000
0000
0000
Capital
O&M
Fuel/Coal
Externalities
Scenarios
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500
Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800
Scenarios
2500052000
160003600
7600026000
13000540
100001700
1100040000
&L
B-1
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT
MorePower
Rail-20%diff20%diffTransmissionTrans+/-20%Trans+20%0.2004662005
Base Case98118-0.20053374
New Construction011896.5144.321.526.3
29880.1810.2000101021119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3New Construction
511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3
10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3
15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3
20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3
Grade Crossings09811896.5144.3
512211896.5144.3
713211896.5144.3
914011896.5144.3
1014611896.5144.3
1115111896.5144.3
Cost of Fuel$2/gallon108
$4.5/gallon130
$6/gallon143
$7/gallon152118
Cost of Capital3%9269
4%9378
5%9487
6%9597
7%97107
Grade Crossing
RailTransmission
Carbon Mgmt$5/ton
$10/ton
$15/ton
$20/ton
Environmental ExternalitiesBase Case98118
low est.102130
mean est.127160
high est.180207
Env Externalities
MorePower
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
00000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
-20%
20%
Fraction of System Requiring New Rail (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
Fraction of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
00
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($ million)
Delivered Power (million MWh)RailTransmission
Base Case6.698118
Case 19.6140170
Case 219280270
Case 312018001600
Case 423037003300
00
00
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Delivered Power (million MWh)
Annual Cost ($ million)
-
Scenario: Grade Crossings
Chart3
9811896.5144.380.1818549417119.7778340584
12211896.5144.399.8182810557149.1111839852
13211896.5144.3108.0000199936161.3334836533
14011896.5144.3114.545505204171.1111447885
14611896.5144.3119.4545665751178.4446032166
15111896.5144.3123.5454777468184.5557114119
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
Percent of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)))
BCeconomics
Rail+-Transmission+-
Capital1692
O&M6821
Fuel/Coal83
Externalities71
Total991311118199
BCeconomics
00
00
00
00
001311199
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($million)
BCenv
0000
0000
0000
0000
Capital
O&M
Fuel/Coal
Externalities
Scenarios
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500
Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800
Scenarios
2500052000
160003600
7600026000
13000540
100001700
1100040000
&L
B-1
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT
MorePower
Rail-20%diff20%diffTransmissionTrans+/-20%Trans+20%0.2004662005
Base Case98118-0.20053374
New Construction011896.5144.321.526.3
29880.1810.2000101021119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3New Construction
511493.27271688280.2000001103139.33343582630.200000728211896.5144.3
10129105.54547349580.1999998222157.6667686620.200000640411896.5144.3
15146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3
20178145.6364292840.1999995537217.55575463440.200000905911896.5144.3
Grade Crossings09880.18185494170.1999995461119.77783405840.200000465211896.5144.3
512299.81828105570.1999990158149.11118398520.200000483811896.5144.3
7132108.00001999360.1999998167161.33348365330.200000922411896.5144.3
9140114.5455052040.1999995622171.11114478850.200000194811896.5144.3
10146119.45456657510.199999825178.44460321660.200000880911896.5144.3
11151123.54547774680.1999998141184.55571141190.200000836111896.5144.3
Cost of Fuel$2/gallon108
$4.5/gallon130
$6/gallon143
$7/gallon152118
Cost of Capital3%9269
4%9378
5%9487
6%9597
7%97107
Grade Crossing
RailTransmission
Carbon Mgmt$5/ton
$10/ton
$15/ton
$20/ton
Environmental ExternalitiesBase Case98118
low est.102130
mean est.127160
high est.180207
Env Externalities
MorePower
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
00000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
-20%
20%
Fraction of System Requiring New Rail (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
Rail
Transmission
Trans+/-20%
Trans+20%
Fraction of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
Annual Cost ($ million)
00
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Annual Cost ($ million)
Delivered Power (million MWh)RailTransmission
Base Case6.698118
Case 19.6140170
Case 219280270
Case 312018001600
Case 423037003300
00
00
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Delivered Power (million MWh)
Annual Cost ($ million)
-
Scenario Analysis - Other
-
Air Emissions (30 years)
Chart3
2500026000
160001800
7600013000
13000270
10000850
1100020000
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT l
NewLosses
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500
RailTransmission
11537465RailGWP1155722440369372
39905570.304TransmissionCO21140391640288238
CH47915438963
0.289119159N2O849345
Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)3.4587815055CFCs1645707
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
26000180013000270850200004000000043000380800
&L
B-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
NewLosses
00
00
00
00
00
00
&L
B-1
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT
B
0000
0000
CO2
CH4
N20
CFCs
Emissions (MT CO2 eq.)
Comparison of GHG Emissions - Base Case - Project
B-1
Appendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
This includes:
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Emissions for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
B-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case
B-3 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case
B-4 Estimating the Environmental Externalities for the Base Case
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
This section takes the sum of the analysis in each scenario in order to compare the environmental emissions.
These emissions include greenhouse gases and conventional pollutants
The eiolca software was used to calculate all of these emissions excluding the power plant emissions (from the extra capacity required in the transmission scenario) and the combustion of the fuel in the rail scenario.
For the power plant emissions - IECM1 was used
For the diesel combustion the IPCC2 guidelines were used for the greenhouse gases and EPA emission factors3 were used for the conventional pollutants. (Note: various methods were used to estimate the emissions from diesel combustion. The results varied
Note: for these two cases some of the emission values are missing. The compounds that are missing are not considered to have a significant impact on the results.
The mining required for the additional coal in the rail scenario has been subtracted from the transmission scenario in order to reflect the net impact from the mining.
Each of these sections show the eiolca.net emissions expected for $1 million of activity in each of the sectors shown. These emissions are then multiplied by the actual amount spent in each of these sectors for the base case. However, the amount spent i
A total project duration of 30 years was used to calculate the emissions for the lifetime of the project.
B-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case
This section is split into two sections - conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases
B-3 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case
This section is split into two sections - conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases
1 IECM. Integrated Environmental Control Model User Documentation, www.iecm-online.com; Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie Mellon University: Pittsburgh, PA, 2001.
2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Workbook. 1.5 - 1.8
3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources. Locomotive Emission Standards: Regulatory Support Document, April, 1998.
4 Carnegie Mellon Green Design Initiative, Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment. (http://www.eiolca.net/).
&L
B&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-2-1
B-1 Summary of the Base Case Environmental Impacts for the Rail and Transmission Scenarios
Rail Scenario - Summary (metric tonnes)
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
2500016000760001300010000110001100000088000550001500
RailTransmission
11537465RailGWP1155722440369372
39905570.304TransmissionCO21140391640288238
CH47915438963
0.289119159N2O849345
Transmission - Summary (metric tonnes)3.4587815055CFCs1645707
SO2CONO2VOCPM10GWP (millions MT CO2e)CO2CH4N2OCFCs
520003600260005401700400004000000043000380800
&L
B-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-2-1
00
00
00
00
00
00
&L
B-1
Rail
Transmission
Emissions MT
Comparison of Emissions - Base Case - Project
B-2-2
0000
0000
CO2
CH4
N20
CFCs
Emissions (MT CO2 eq.)
Comparison of GHG Emissions - Base Case - Project
B-3-1
B-2-1 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case
Conventional Pollutants
Rail Capital Investment
(all in metric tonnes)$ 1 millionActual
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Rail Equipment3.74.42.40.940.00160.511696297394141590.2686
Coal Transport$ 1 millionActual
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Fuel Consumption - burning the fuel68834124023842888.8(million gallons)6883412402384288
(oeko method)2379.525294000000ton km
Fuel Consumption - before the fuel is burned6.25.26.92.60.0002871.27.9494154200.00239.2
Maintenance$ 1 millionActualLong Way
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Rail Equipment (yearly investment in new trains etc.)3.74.42.40.940.00160.5111414827100.0175.680949825224260342
Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.981124213.40.00531
Materials and other costs (steel foundries)3.48.23.11.30.00601.551741156.50.0307.5eiolca
Engineering Services0.700.700.570.180.0000890.09242.82.82.30.730.0003560.37Rail Related Services ($ 1million)3.323356.42177119.4260451.3856910.0002991.576698
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10for $36.6 million122235711510.01094358
Total (yearly no capital)81050025004300.06340
Total Project (30 years)SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
25000160007600013000210000
Note: Mining is not included in this scenario because the amount of extra mining that is required in this scenario (due to losses during rail transport) has been subtracted from the losses in the transmission scenario.
total for base case
61
Salaries and Benefits24.82
Equipment and Other Rents8.40
Capital Investment7.7919.74
Fuel and Utilities8.65
Materials and Supplies3.37
Other Costs7.96
&L
B-2-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-3-2
B-2-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions rail scenario base case
Greenhouse Gases
Rail Capital Investment
MT$ 1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Rail Equipment676615600.500.651691142331039131012585110
Coal Transport$ 1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Fuel Consumption - burning the fuel (oecd)35284135041761318108.86436000000ton km35284135041761318100
IPCC method1129411525TJ
7008348
Fuel Consumption - upstream13161236750.753.67.91039397685915.929
Maintenance$ 1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Rail Equipment676615600.500.6511743567646595.57.1
Other New Construction374339340.330.858299527122732.76.8
Materials and other costs (steel foundries)783707740.540.9053915353637235
Engineering Services188168190.150.184752674770.610.71
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Total3783323738712585182848
Total ProjectGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
110001100000088000550001500
Contributions to GWP%Contribution to GWP
Equipment Manufacture1038.4810388727CO21000007333333
Fuel Consumption99063.9019603856CH4800
Maintenance4117.5124088182N2O500
Total104219.895408077CFCs13.6363636364
Total101314
&L
B-2-2&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-4
B-3-1 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case
Conventional Pollutants
Transmission Line Construction
metric tonnes$ 1 millionActual
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Engineering, Architectural and Surveying Services0.700.700.570.180.0000890.092$74.2525242140.0077
Trucking and Courier Services, except air1.528224.80.0002020.90$11.117306245530.00210
Iron and Steel Forgings4.35.93.40.720.00340.63$15628550100.0499
Aluminum Rolling and Drawing10204.71.50.00371.1$575711124265880.2161
Plastics Materials and Resins4.44.04.62.10.00100.792$3.4415141670.0033
Ready-mixed Concrete8.15.49.81.10.0005631.9$19.0153103187210.01136
Electrical Industrial Apparatus, n.e.c.2.23.02.80.700.000920.48$2124606285991490.20103
Plumbing Fixtures Fittings and Trim2.83.62.00.730.00440.43$2.8810620.0121
Lighting Fixtures and Equipment2.23.42.20.700.00110.38$1.234310.0010
Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$32.6449687140.022128
Total1384242314993590.52358Long Way
4076586861020759
Additional Capacity$ 1 millionActual
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10eiolca
Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$184246545493790.13721Rail Related Services ($ 1million)3.323356.42177119.4260451.3856910.0002991.576698
Coal Mining2.72.43.00.530.0003391.2$2.15.65.06.31.10.00071192.6for $36.6 million122235711510.01094358
Emissions from Additional Coal Burning16617841661784
Maintenance$ 1 million
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10ActualSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Other New Construction1.33.02.70.430.0006873.9$5.06.715132.10.003420
SO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
Total (not including capital investment)1674208043.30.004122
Total ProjectSO2CONO2VOCLeadPM10
520003600260005400.771700
Note: The coal mining required in the rail scenario ($0.9 million) has been subtracted from the transmission scenario to reflect the net mining impact of the transmission scenario
Note: Some of the emissions due to burning coal have not been included in this analysis
51839.953561.229877791926099.9450832212535.61675385211745.5926263276
&L
B-3-1&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-3-2 Description of the data used for the environmental emissions transmission scenario base case
Greenhouse Gases
Transmission Line Construction
metric tonnes$1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Engineering, Architectural and Surveying Services188168190.150.18$74139481249814261113
Trucking and Courier Services, except air185216681813.00.54$1120534184942007336.0
Iron and Steel Forgings1066972920.651.3$15155001413313331018
Aluminum Rolling and Drawing942850900.621.4$57535444831851123579
Plastics Materials and Resins141512861010.8128$3.4486544193462.897
Ready-mixed Concrete146013191381.22.1$19277232503726242239
Electrical Industrial Apparatus, n.e.c.634573600.520.91$21213454612157712666111192
Plumbing Fixtures Fittings and Trim547494510.470.47$2.8155013991451.31.3
Lighting Fixtures and Equipment573518520.462.0$1.2683618620.62.4
Other New Construction374339340.330.85$33121991104811121128
Total28509225754026832238477
Additional Capacity$ 1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Other New Construction374339340.330.851846888662387628161157
Coal Mining852780710.510.622.1178916371491.11.3
Emissions from Additional Coal Burning1330186133018613301861330186
Maintenance$ 1 millionActual
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCsActualGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Other New Construction374339340.330.855187216951711.74.3
GWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
Total (not including capital)1333846133351832036
Total ProjectGWPCO2CH4N2OCFCs
400000004000000043000380800
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B-3-2&CAppendix B - Base Case - Environmental Impact
B-4 Estimating the Environmental Externalities for the Base Case
Base Case -Emissions (30 year project) tonnesExternal Costs ($)
Mean Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission
CO5201600036008.3E+061.9E+06
NOx280076000260002.1E+087.3E+07
SO2200025000520005.0E+071.0E+08
PM1043001000017004.3E+077.3E+06
VOC1600130005402.1E+078.6E+05
CO2e1311000000400000001.4E+085.2E+08
Total (1992$)4.8E+087.1E+08
Total (2000$) - using discount rate of 8%8.8E+081.3E+09
Annual Cost2.9E+074.4E+07
Base Case -Emissions (30 year project) tonnesExternal Costs ($)
Max Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission
CO10501600036001.7E+073.8E+06
NOx950076000260007.2E+082.5E+08
SO2470025000520001.2E+082.4E+08
PM10162001000017001.6E+082.8E+07
VOC4400130005405.7E+072.4E+06
CO2e2311000000400000002.5E+089.2E+08
Total (1992$)1.3E+091.4E+09
Total (2000$) - using discount rate of 8%2.5E+092.7E+09
Annual Cost8.2E+078.9E+07
Base Case -Emissions (30 year project) tonnesExternal Costs ($)
Min Estimated External Cost ($/tonne)*RailTransmissionRailTransmission
CO11600036001.6E+043.6E+03
NOx22076000260001.7E+075.7E+06
SO277025000520001.9E+074.0E+07
PM109501000017009.5E+061.6E+06
VOC160130005402.1E+068.6E+04
CO2e211000000400000002.2E+078.0E+07
Total (1992$)7.0E+071.3E+08
Total (2000$) - using discount rate of 8%1.3E+082.4E+08
Annual Cost4.3E+067.9E+06
* Matthews, H.S. Lave, L. Applications of Environmental Valuation for Determining Externality Costs. Environmental Science and Technology. Vol. 34. pp. 1390-1395. 2000.
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B-4
-
Comparative Annual Energy Consumption
Chart1
1.35
46.5
8.31.55
Rail
Transmission
Energy, CO2 Emissions, Fuel Costs)
Sheet1
Energy (10^12 BTU)CO2 (10^5 tons)Fuel Costs ($ 10^6)
Rail1.348.3
Transmission56.51.55
10133.1
Sheet1
00
00
00
Rail
Transmission
Comparative Annual Energy Consumption
Sheet2
Sheet3
MBD00912336.xls
BaseCase
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$942
Capital Cost for New Trains$124Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$184
Total Capital Cost (million)$176Total Capital Cost (million)$1,126
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50FuelEnergyCO2$ millions spent on fuel
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$16Amortized Annual Cost (million)$92Coal - Base (million tons)Diesel (million gallons)Coal (BTU)Diesel (BTU)Total BTU(million tons)
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tonsTotal Power Plant + Transport/TransmitRail3.39.25.60E+131.30E+125.80E+138.784
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16Transmission3.9-6.70E+13-6.70E+139.720
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tonsJust energy to transport /transmitRail-9.2-1.30E+121.30E+120.48.3
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3Transmission0.61-1.00E+13-1.00E+131.33.1
Sub Total (million)$91Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$117
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$97Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$118
Length (miles)Fraction LostRequiredTotal lineNet CapacityExtra Capacity Cost
10000.13911391160145184
9000.12611261150136173
8000.111140127161
7000.11120109138
6000.087110091115
4000.06210605469
2000.03710302735
LengthRailTransmission
100091117
90091110
80090104
7008897
6008887
5008778
4008775
2008362
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
900 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$877
Capital Cost for New Trains$124Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)173
Total Capital Cost (million)$176Total Capital Cost (million)$1,050
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$16Amortized Annual Cost (million)$86
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$76Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$91Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$110
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$97Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$111
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
800 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$812
Capital Cost for New Trains$106Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$161
Total Capital Cost (million)$159Total Capital Cost (million)$973
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$14Amortized Annual Cost (million)$80
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$90Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$104
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$96Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$105
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
700 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$747
Capital Cost for New Trains$88Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$138
Total Capital Cost (million)$141Total Capital Cost (million)$885
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$12Amortized Annual Cost (million)$72
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$88Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$97
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$94Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$98
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
600 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$682
Capital Cost for New Trains$88Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$115
Total Capital Cost (million)$141Total Capital Cost (million)$797
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$12Amortized Annual Cost (million)$65
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$88Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$90
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$94Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$91
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
500 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$617
Capital Cost for New Trains$71Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)35
Total Capital Cost (million)$124Total Capital Cost (million)$652
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$11Amortized Annual Cost (million)$53
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$87Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$78
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$93Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$79
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
400 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$552
Capital Cost for New Trains$71Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)$69
Total Capital Cost (million)$124Total Capital Cost (million)$621
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$11Amortized Annual Cost (million)$51
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$87Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$75
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$93Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$76
0.14
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
200 miles
A-1 Base Case - Cost Estimates
RailTransmission
1000 MW plant
Cost TypeCostDetailsCost TypeCostDetails
Capital Cost for New Track (million)$53Capital Cost Transmission Line Construction (million)$422
Capital Cost for New Trains$35Captial Cost Additional Capacity Required (million)35
Total Capital Cost (million)$88Total Capital Cost (million)$457
Interest Rate0.08compounded annuallyInterest Rate0.08compounded annually
Amortization Period30Amortization Period50
Amortized Annual Cost (million)$8Amortized Annual Cost (million)$37
Coal Required (base amount - tons)3290000Coal Required (base amount)3290000tons
Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$763290000Cost of Coal at Utility (million)$16
Additional Coal Required (to compensate for losses)611000tons
Cost of Additional Coal (million)$3
Sub Total (million)$83Cost of Operating and Maintenance$5
Fatalities Expected (operation)0.00
Cost of Fatalities (million)0.0Sub Total (million)$62
Fatalities Expected (rail deaths)1.17Fatalities Expected0.196
Cost of Fatalities (million)$6Cost of Fatalities (million)$1.02
Total Cost of Case 2 - Rail Scenario (million)$90Total Cost of Case 1 - Transmission Scenario (million)$63
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A-1&CAppendix A - Base Case - Costs, Assumptions and Data
-
Some Alternatives
Coal to Methane or HydrogenCoal Slurry PipelineAC TransmissionHigh Temperature SuperconductorsBarge and Rail
-
ConclusionsFrom the current case there is no economic/environmental gain in switching to minemouth generationSome scenarios change this resultCost and environmental emissions from existing system are significantOther methods of transporting energy should be investigatedContribution has been made from developing a method to compare alternative transport/transmission scenarios in terms of economic and environmental impact
-
Thanks to Support from.
My research looks at the economic and env differences between rail transport and electricity transmission and I used a hybrid comparative Life Cycle Analysis framework (which I developed) to do thisPut source on this!One of the major contributions of this paper is the development of the method for comparative LCA LCA important to look at all the impacts associated with a process or productTraditional life cycle analysis inputs/outputs mass and energy balanceHybrid approach makes use of eiolca to estimate some of the upstream impactsQuickly/easily get results defficiencies made up by more specific data e.g. IECMAssumptions made to build the two casesCosts estimatedCosts used in eiolca model to determine env. Impacts (links economic activity and emissions)Comparative Analysis cut things down even more Comparing two processes therefore anything that is the same can be left outCoal mining, cleaning and use phases will be the same regardless- because same coal, processed in same place-electricity consumed in TexasFinally, in both Tx and Wy, the strictest of env and water restrictions are expected for a new power plant, therefore the impacts and costs are expected to be the same. Therefore, this analysis focuses on the transport and transmission phases of the life cycle.
SETACInventoryImpactImprovement
EIOLCAlinksUS gov puts out IO tables 480 x 480UPSTREAM EMISSIONS FULL PICTURE
IECM Cost (Capitol, Operational)Technology (e.g. boiler type, efficiency, combustion type)Environmental ControlsWater consumptionHYBRID APPROACH combines best of all worldsThis method combines the benefits associated with the EIOLCA (Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis) method as well as the traditional SETAC approach. The cost and environmental impact data available at a national, aggregated level (by industrial sector) is used in conjunction with a product analysis of more specific electricity generation scenarios.
Few of many these studies are full of assumptions therefore, these will be discussed furtherThese and other assumptions helped to build a base case-cost and environmental impacts were estimated -context of 1000 MW in terms of Texas % capacity and coal capacity - 55MW summer peak demandA little more than is currently connected to non ERCOT Expect 4% growth this is close to 2%
CapitalO&MSocial just construction and railTotal not practically different (within error)
Suggestions for breakdown of variable, fixed, marginal to fit this into the real world
% of 1000 miles new rail Base case 15 milesUpper and lower boundsBetween 10 to 15%
600 rail crossings from WY to TX Base case assumes 0Close to 10%
Change to table
ParameterNominalBreak Even ValueFuel etc.Remind audience of comparative