transmission security analysis (tsa) requirements · 2017-18 ara3, 2018-19 ara2 and 2019-20 ara1...

ISO-NE PUBLIC

P S P C M E E T I N G N O 3 2 2 | A G E N D A I T E M 2 . 1

S E P T E M B E R 2 2 , 2 0 1 6 | W E S T B O R O U G H . M A

Manasa Kotha E N G I N E E R

2017-18 Third Annual Reconfiguration Auction (2017-18 ARA3)

2018-19 Second Annual Reconfiguration Auction (2018-19 ARA2)

2019-20 First Annual Reconfiguration Auction (2019-20 ARA1)

Transmission Security Analysis (TSA) Requirements

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Purpose of the Discussion

• Review the TSA requirements for the – 2017-2018 Third Annual Reconfiguration Auction (ARA3) – 2018-2019 Second Annual Reconfiguration Auction (ARA2) – 2019-2020 First Annual Reconfiguration Auction (ARA1)

• Review the comparison of TSA requirements for – 2017-18 ARA3 and FCA #8 – 2018-19 ARA2 and FCA #9 – 2019-20 ARA1 and FCA #10

ISO-NE PUBLIC

TSA Assumptions – 2017-18 ARA3, 2018-19 ARA2 and 2019-20 ARA1

• The assumptions for TSA requirements were presented to the Power Supply Planning Committee on 08/25/2016; details are available at: – http://www.iso-ne.com/static-

assets/documents/2016/08/PSPC08252016_2016_17ARA3_2017_18ARA2_2018_19ARA1_TSA_Assumptions.pdf

– The methodology details are available in the appendix

Note: The TSA assumptions in the appendix are updated to reflect the adjustments to the RTEG resources and are accordingly used to calculate the TSA requirements.

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http://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2016/08/PSPC08252016_2016_17ARA3_2017_18ARA2_2018_19ARA1_TSA_Assumptions.pdf



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TSA Assumptions – 2017-18 ARA3, 2018-19 ARA2 and 2019-20 ARA1

Recap-

• Modeled Import Capacity Zones

CCP 2017-18 ARA3

CCP 2018-19 ARA2

CCP 2019-20 ARA1

Connecticut

Connecticut Southeast New England

( SEMA, Rhode Island and Boston Sub-areas)

Boston

Boston SEMA-Rhode Island

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TSA Requirements – 2017-18 ARA3

2017-18 ARA3 TSA Requirement (in MW) Connecticut NEMA/Boston

2016 Sub-area 90/10 Load* 8133 6612

Reserves (Largest unit) 1225 1413

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 9358 8025

Existing Resources 9220 4053

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -835 -225

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 2950 4850

Sub-area Available Resources 11335 8679

TSA Requirement 7046 3361

NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number *Behind the Meter Load Forecast (BTM-PV) is modeled as a reduction to the load forecast

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TSA Requirements Comparison – 2017-18 ARA3 and FCA #8

ARA3 TSA Requirement (MW)

FCA 8 TSA Requirement (MW)

Connecticut NEMA/Boston Connecticut NEMA/Boston

Sub-area 90/10 Load 8133 6612 8330 6745

Reserves (Largest unit) 1225 1413 1200 1395

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 9358 8025 9530 8140

Existing Resources 9220 4053 9768 3685

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -835 -225 -729 -149

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 2950 4850 2800 4850

Sub-area Available Resources 11335 8679 11839 8386

TSA Requirement 7046 3361 7273 3428

• 2017-18 FCA TSA Requirement values were initially calculated and presented during the August 22, 2013 PSPC Meeting

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2018-19 ARA2 TSA Requirement (in MW) Connecticut NEMA/Boston SEMA/RI

2016 Sub-area 90/10 Load* 8182 6693 6198

Reserves (Largest unit) 1225 1412 740

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 9407 8105 6938

Existing Resources 9941 4079 7431

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -880 -225 -851

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 2950 4850 1280

Sub-area Available Resources 12011 8704 7820

TSA Requirement 7084 3445 6394


ISO-NE PUBLIC

ARA2 TSA Requirement (MW)

FCA 9 TSA Requirement (MW)

Connecticut NEMA/Boston SEMA/RI Connecticut NEMA/Boston SEMA/RI

Sub-area 90/10 Load 8182 6693 6198 8415 6835 6465 Reserves (Largest unit or loss of import capability) 1225 1412 740 1225 1412 700

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 9407 8105 6938 9640 8247 7165

Existing Resources 9941 4079 7431 9239 3868 6984

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -880 -225 -851 -808 -190 -723

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 2950 4850 1280 2950 4850 786

Sub-area Available Resources 12011 8704 7820 11381 8528 7047

TSA Requirement 7084 3445 6394 7331 3572 7116

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2019-20 ARA2 TSA Requirement (in MW) SENE

Sub-area 2016 90/10 Load 13043

Reserves (Largest unit or loss of import capability) 1413

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 14456

Existing Resources 11625

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -1152

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 5700

Sub-area Available Resources 16173

TSA Requirement 9719

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ARA1 TSA Requirement

(MW)

FCA #10 TSA Requirement

(MW)

SENE SENE

Sub-area 90/10 Load 13043 13342

Reserves (Largest unit) 1413 1413

Sub-area Transmission Security Need 14456 14755

Existing Resources 11625 11194

Assumed Unavailable Capacity -1152 -1086

Sub-area N-1 Import Limit 5700 5700

Sub-area Available Resources 16173 15808

TSA Requirement 9719 10028


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ISO-NE PUBLIC

APPENDIX Methodology

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ISO-NE PUBLIC

Background

• The methodology and assumptions used to determine the TSA requirements were developed in accordance with section III.12.2.1.2. of Market Rule 1, and section 6 of ISO Planning Procedure 10 – Planning Procedure to Support the Forward Capacity Market

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ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology

• The TSA determines the requirement of the sub-area to meet its load through internal generation and import capacity

• It stems from ISO Planning Procedure 3 - Reliability Standards for the New England Area Bulk Power Supply System key transmission security requirements – Integrate all resources and serve area load under N-1 and N-1-1 conditions – Perform review under reasonably stressed conditions (“With due

allowance for generator maintenance and forced outages”)

• It is performed via a series of transmission load flow studies – In performing the analysis, static transmission interface transfer limits may

be established as a reasonable representation of the transmission system’s capability to serve sub-area load with available existing resources

• Results may be presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis

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ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology, cont.

• When presented in the form of a deterministic operable capacity analysis, the TSA simply compares need with available resources – Needs include

• Load + Loss of Generator (“Line-Gen” scenario), or • Load + Loss of import capability (going from an N-1 import capability to an

N-1-1 import capability; “Line-Line” scenario) – Resources include

• N-1 Import capability • Regular generation • Operating actions (fast start units, demand response…)

– Resource unavailability is applied by de-rating capacity

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ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology, cont.

• Example

• For each of the potential import constrained Capacity Zones,

the TSA requirement (resource requirement that will be compared to the LRA) is the amount of internal resources (generators and Demand Resources) needed in the zone, so that the Line-Line or Line-Gen requirements can be met after proper accounting for resource unavailability

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Subarea 90/10 Load 8,300 Reserves (Largest unit or loss of import capability) 1,200 Subarea Transmission Security Need 9,500

Existing Resources 10,000 Assumed Unavailable Capacity -500 Subarea N-1 Import Capability 2,500 Subarea Available Resources 12,000

Subarea Transmission Security Margin 2,500

ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology, cont.

• The TSA requirement can be approximated by using the following formula

• The TSA requirement ensures that the zone’s transmission security margin remains close to zero

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(Need – Import Limit)

1 – ( Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resources) TSA Requirement

ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology, cont.

• Example

• The proposed TSA requirement formula is based on the assumption that the amount of assumed unavailable capacity, prior to the N-1 or N-1-1 state, is proportional to the amount of existing resources – In the prior example, it is assumed that 500/10,000=5% of the resources

will be unavailable on forced or maintenance outage, prior to the N-1 or N-1-1 state. This assumption is maintained regardless of the amount of existing resources that is assumed in the sub-area

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(9,500 – 2,500) 1 – (500/ 10,000)

TSA Requirement = = 7,368 MW

Subarea 90/10 Load 8,300 Reserves (Largest unit or loss of import capability) 1,200 Subarea Transmission Security Need 9,500

Existing Resources 10,000 Assumed Unavailable Capacity -500 Subarea N-1 Import Capability 2,500 Subarea Available Resources 12,000

Subarea Transmission Security Margin 2,500

ISO-NE PUBLIC

Methodology, cont.

• The TSA requirement calculation is an approximation, due to: – The use of static transmission interface transfer limits – The reliance on specific scenarios (“Line-Gen”) and (“Line-Line”) – The nature of the calculation

• The term [Assumed Unavailable Capacity / Existing Resource] in the above equation depends on the actual proportion of regular generation, peaking generation, intermittent resources, Real-Time Emergency Generation (RT-EG), active non-RTEG Demand Resources (DR) and passive DR

– The fact that the energy Load Zones boundaries do not exactly correspond to the real operating boundaries

• Real operating boundaries are based on the limiting constraints that define a zone’s import capability and the ability of the generation within the zone to alleviate those constraints

• The TSA requirement is calculated based on the zone’s real operating boundaries and is an approximation for what the requirement would be for the energy Load Zone

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ISO-NE PUBLIC

2017-18 ARA3, 2018-19 ARA2 and 2019-20 ARA1 TSA Assumptions

• Load Forecast Data --2016 CELT forecast

• Resource Data

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*Behind the Meter (BTM) PV is modeled as a reduction to the load forecast **Qualified New Capacity on CPS monitoring with deliverability prior to June 1st 2019

2016 CELT Forecast 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Connecticut sub-area 90/10 peak load* (MW) 8133 8182 -

Boston sub-area 90/10 peak load* (MW) 6612 6693 -

SEMA- RI sub-area 90/10 peak load* (MW) - 6198 -

SENE sub-area 90/10 peak load* (MW) - - 13043

2017-18 ARA 3 2018-19 ARA 2 2019-20 ARA 1

2017-18 ARA 2 Qualified Capacity data

2018-19 ARA 1 Qualified Capacity data

2019-20 FCA Existing Qualified Capacity data +

2019-20 FCA New Capacity Amount**

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2017-18 ARA3, 2018-19 ARA2 and 2019-20 ARA1 TSA Assumptions, cont.

• Resource Data – 2017-18 ARA3

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Demand Resource Capacity

Passive Demand Resources

Real-Time Demand Resources

Real-Time Emergency Generation*

Connecticut sub-area (MW) 477 244 1.2

Boston sub-area (MW) 554 157 0

Generating Resource Capacity

Regular Generation Resources

Intermittent Resources Fast Start Resources

Connecticut sub-area (MW) 6776 199 1522


*RTEG values are changed to reflect the outcome of recent approved FERC order - ER16-1904-000 - Order Granting Limited Waiver NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

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SEMA- RI sub-area (MW) 517 115 0






SEMA-RI sub-area (MW) 6314 107 376

*RTEG values are changed to reflect the outcome of recent approved FERC order-ER16-1904-000 - Order Granting Limited Waiver NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

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SENE sub-area (MW) 1234 186 0




SENE sub-area (MW) 9359 182 664

* RTEG values are changed to reflect the outcome of recent approved FERC order -ER16-1904-000 - Order Granting Limited Waiver NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

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• Resource Unavailability Assumptions – Regular Generation Resources - Weighted average EFORd

– Peaking Generation Resources - Operational de-rating factor: 20% – Intermittent Generation Resources: 0%

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NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number


2017-18 ARA3 2018-19 ARA2 2019-20 ARA1

Connecticut sub-area (MW) 9% 8% -

Boston sub-area (MW) 9% 9% -

SEMA-RI sub-area (MW) - 12% -

SENE sub-area (MW) - - 11%

ISO-NE PUBLIC


• Resource Unavailability Assumptions – Passive Demand Resources: 0% – Non-RTEG Active Demand Resources - De-rating based on

performance factors • Connecticut sub-area: 9% • Boston sub-area: 15% • SEMA sub-area: 20% • RI sub-area: 21%

– Real-Time Emergency Generation - De-rating based on performance factors

• Connecticut sub-area: 6% • Boston sub-area: 5% • SEMA sub-area: 13% • RI sub-area: 3%

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NOTE: All values have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

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• Transfer Limits – 2016 Regional System Plan (RSP) – Internal Transmission Transfer Capability

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Interface 2017-18 ARA3 2018-19 ARA2 2019-20 ARA1

Boston Import (N-1) 4850 4850 -

Boston Import (N-1-1) 4175 4175 -

Connecticut Import (N-1) 2950 2950 -

Connecticut Import (N-1-1) 1750 1750 -

SEMA/RI Import (N-1) - 1280 -

SEMA/RI Import (N-1-1) - 720 -

SENE Import (N-1) - - 5700

SENE Import (N-1-1) - - 4600

The 2016 Transfer Limits were presented at the Reliability Committee on March, 2016

transmission security analysis (tsa) requirements · 2017-18 ara3, 2018-19 ara2 and 2019-20 ara1...

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