transitions to a low carbon energy system€¦ · jan 10 apr 10 july 10 oct 10 heat electricity gb...
TRANSCRIPT
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Transitions to a Low Carbon Energy System
Mike Colechin
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The UK energy challenge...
Tensions are increasing...
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The UK energy challenge... Demand is growing, assets are aging, prices are rising... irrespective of a CO2 reduction target
• 62m people ....................................................... growing to 77m by 2050
• 24m cars .......................................................... growing to 40m by 2050
• 24m domestic dwellings .................................... 90% will still be in use in 2050total dwellings 38m by 2050
• Final users spent £124bn on energy in 2010 .... 9% of GDP
• 2.4m English households in fuel poverty .......... average ‘fuel poverty gap’ £438 and increasing
• Over 90GW generation capacity ....................... from 1MW to 3.9GW
• Over 200 ‘significant’ power stations ................. average age >20 years
• 50% of power generation capacity …………….. in 30 power plantsaverage age 30 years
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What is the ETI?
• The ETI is a public-private partnership between global energy and engineering companies and the UK Government.
• Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy
• Shared risk
ETI programme associate
ETI members
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
EnergySystemModellingEnvironment
ESME – ETI’s system design tool...
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“No emissions targets” and “-80% CO2 in 2050” are very different worlds…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Gas + CCS
Nuclear
Hydrogen
Renewables
Gas
Coa
l
No targets -80% CO2
UK
ele
ctric
ity g
ener
atio
n ca
paci
ty
Coal + CCS
No targets -80% CO2
Coal
Gas
NuclearRenewables
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
Gas + CCS
Nuclear
Hydrogen
Renewables
Gas
Coa
l
No targets -80% CO2
UK
ele
ctric
ity g
ener
atio
n ca
paci
ty
Coal + CCS
No targets -80% CO2
Coal
Gas
NuclearRenewables
As long as we prepare NOW, decisions on 2050 can wait… but not for long
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Prepare over next 10 yearscreating platform for infrastructure roll-out and growth
0
10
20
30
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Transport
HS2Schools
£bn/year
(NHS >£100bn p.a.)
(MoD >£40bn p.a.)
+£5bn p.a.
+£15bn p.a.
+£35bn p.a.
(Energy >£120bn p.a.)
By 2050 total energy system costs could be as much as £300bn p.a.
Prepare
Build
Maintain ...and plan again
Incremental capital investment in a ‘low-carbon’ energy infrastructure
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Poor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 UK low carbon energy systemAdditional cost of delivering - 80% GHG energy system NPV £bn 2010-2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
No TargetsPerfect lowcost route
Practicallow cost
route
Nobuilding
efficiencypackages
No Nuclear No CCS No Bio NoOffshore
Wind
No CCS No Bio
Nonuclear
No offshore
wind
No building
efficiency1% of 2050 GDP
1% of 2050 GDP
+£30bn pa+£6bn pa +£3bn pa in one year (2030)
To meet carbon reduction targets we need to be prepared to pay at least 1% of GDP and we need to optimise the system or that rises quickly…
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* 2010 UK consumption divided by 60M Notes: 1. Passenger transport figure excludes international air travel(people in the UK) 2. Data excludes heavy industry
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Space heating - domestic (Th)Space heating - commercial (Th)
Water heating - domestic (Th) Water heating - commercial (Th)
Process heating (Th)Cooking - domestic (Th)
Cooking - commercial (Th)
14,000 passenger km (Th)4,250 Goods Te km (Th)
LightingAppliances
MotorsCompressed airVentilation / AC
IT, etcRefrigeration
Other
Energy kWh p.a.
Individual energy consumption in the UK*...
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Hea
t / E
lect
ricity
(GW
)
0
50
100
150
250
200
Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10
HeatElectricity
GB heat delivery system design point
GB electricity delivery system design point
Source: UKERC (2011)
GB heat and electricity demand variability(commercial & domestic - 2010)
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©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Space Heat Generation
Clockwork Patchwork
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©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Key decisions and cost implications• Direction change between “no
targets” and “-80% CO2” polarises in mid 2020s
Delay in launch of major build programmes beyond mid 2020s leads to cost increases of ~£5bn p.a. as more costly alternatives are built• Key electricity decisions are national
policy led programmes – Nuclear new build– CCS
• plus… local and individual consumer decisions on other critical areas - with major implications for distribution level infrastructure – Heat delivery
(gas, electricity, biomass, district heating)
– Transport(liquid fuels, electricity, hydrogen)
There are logical asset replacements (technically and financially) that ensure security, sustainability and lowest system cost
Nuclear
Gas
Bioenergy feedstocks
(for heat and power)
CCS (fossil and biomass
fuels)
Efficiency improvement
(transport and buildings)
Offshore renewables
all “no regrets” choices for the next 10 years
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What we need...
• Understanding of the drivers on future development
– Costs
– Supply capability and capacity (in a global market)
– Infrastructure decisions
– Investor requirements
– Consumer needs/desires
• Clear market and value opportunities for investors and consumers
• Supportive and stable policy
• Consumer support
But... the future remains uncertain and we need an energy system design that allows for this
• Ready to make informed choices• A system that creates and retains
optionality• Prepared for investment in a wide
scale infrastructure roll-out• Innovate to drive down cost
(technology and business models)
• We need innovative incentives for industry to invest in the UK
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
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