Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to

Operations

January 24, 2012

D. Green1, C. Brown1, F. Aikman1, A. Siebers1, H. Tolman1, M. Ji1, D. Levin2, C. Friedrichs3, M. Friedrichs3, and R. Hood4

1 NOAA, 2 Washington College, 3 VIMS College of William & Mary,4 HPL/UMCES University of Maryland

2

Outline

• Ecological Forecasting• Chesapeake Pathfinder

Project• Next steps

3

Ecological Forecasting for aWeather Ready Nation

Predict impacts

• Biological, chemical, physical, and human-induced changes on ecosystems ecosystem components, and people.

Address “what if” questions

• Resource management

Transition science

• Leverage infrastructure

4

Seamless Suite of Services • Local, short term

nowcasting and forecasting beach water quality, living resource distribution (oysters, sea nettles), development of harmful algal blooms, pathogens,…

• Long term scenarios and seasonal outlooks, estimating sea grass restoration, disease outbreaks, eutrophication and hypoxia reduction, recruitment of fisheries species…

Conditions at Bay’s Mouth• Near-real time water level• Climatological vertical profiles of

temperature, salinity, and NO3, PO4, O2 concentrations

Tidal Harmonics

Temperature, Salinity, O2, Light

Heat Flux

Precipitation

Wind

Solar Radiation

Currents

Nutrients (N,P)

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Sediment Transport

SedimentResuspension

River Flow and Load

Atmospheric Depositionand Ventilation

Particle Sinking &Remineralization Conditions at Bay’s Mouth

• Near-real time water level• Climatological vertical profiles of

temperature, salinity, and NO3, PO4, O2 concentrations

Tidal Harmonics

Temperature, Salinity, O2, Light

Heat Flux

Precipitation

Wind

Solar Radiation

Currents

Nutrients (N,P)

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Sediment Transport

SedimentResuspension

River Flow and Load

Atmospheric Depositionand Ventilation

Particle Sinking &Remineralization

Tidal Harmonics

Temperature, Salinity, O2, Light

Heat Flux

Precipitation

Wind

Solar Radiation

Currents

Nutrients (N,P)

Phytoplankton

Zooplankton

Sediment Transport

SedimentResuspension

River Flow and Load

River Flow and Load

Atmospheric Depositionand Ventilation

Particle Sinking &Remineralization

• Physical

Temperature

Salinity

Current velocity

Sea Surface Height

• Biogeochemical

Nutrients

Phytoplankton, Zooplankton

Dissolved oxygen

• Organismal

Sea Nettles

Water-borne pathogens

Harmful algal blooms

Integrated Science

6

Observations

Environmental Modeling

Research

Ecological Forecasting

&DecisionSupport

Tools

Local - RegionalProducts

& Services

for

StakeholdersPartners &

Users

Enable Informed Decisions

System development & partnershipsLinking needed components

Scaling to local decision makingSystem use and sustainability

7

Pathfinder: Sea Nettle Forecasting

Salinity

SST

Habitat Model

1. Forecast surface salinity and temperature fields

2. Apply habitat model

3. Generate image illustrating the likelihood of encountering sea nettles

4. Disseminate daily and 3-day forecast to users

Likelihood of Chrysaora

8

Migration to the NOAA Chesapeake ROMS

UMD/NOAA migrated ecological forecasting models to CBOFS2 Higher resolution allows better bathymetric representation Improves simulation of physical processes (particularly salinity) Provides more accurate forcing for our empirical and mechanistic models

9

Transition to Operations

• Research and monitoring to provide data for developing and validating forecast models (statistical and process models to overlay on environmental variable forecast – Builds on NESDIS/NOS/NMFS/NWS/UMD research, data

and observations

• Operational backbone modeling suite to create forecasts of environmental variables– Leverages NOS-supplied Chesapeake Bay Operational

Forecast System (CBOFS2) model and is enabled by NCEP infrastructure

– Modeling testbed and proving ground

• Forecast office that works with regional management agencies and structure (e.g., Chesapeake Bay Program) to ensure utility of and support for forecast– Dissemination of products through NWS and NOS/NMFS

offices and information tools

10

Coast Survey Development Laboratory

Center for Sat. Applications & Research

Habitat Model, JellyCams, Satellite Data Develop and update CBOFS

Link to NettleWeb Page

Include Nettle Forecasts in text alerts

Weather Forecast Offices

Center for Operational Oceanographic Products

& ServicesStage CBOFS output

Archive ρnettles

and CBOFS output

NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

Address biological questions

National Oceanographic Data Center

NCEP Central OperationsRun CBOFS

AWIPS

FTPNettle Web Site

Calculate ρnettles using CBOFS SST & SSS

Ocean Prediction Center

Nettle model guidance, and CBOFS SST & SSS

Satellites Weather FisheriesOceans

Planned Sea Nettle Forecast Concept of Operations

11

• Regional Earth System Model-based Operations

• Fully integrates ecosystem model suite for the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed

• Assimilates in-situ and satellite-derived data by adapting and coupling existing models

• Uses coupled air, land, and coastal ocean models in products and services

Next Steps Testbed and Proving Ground

12

• Regional prediction system can be easily extended to other forecasts: o Harmful algal bloomso Water-borne

pathogenso Dissolved oxygen

(hypoxia) concentrations

o …

• Prediction system and approach transportable to other regions

Conclusion: Its Just the Beginning…

Relative abundance of Karlodinium veneficum on 20 April 2005. Low: 0-10, med: 11-2000 cells/ml, high: > 2000 cells/ml.

Likelihood of Vibrio vulnificus on 20 April 2011.

13

Background Material

14

Expanding Regional Capabilities Beach/Water Quality – Case Study

• Issue: Water quality risk due to microbial and chemical contamination threatens human/ecosystem health and economics

• Solution: Water (beach) quality guidance

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land computational models

• Collaborators: Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, fishers and regulators

• Output Product: Near-real time maps and decision support tools showing water quality index and long-term scenarios, bacterial content, water temperature, turbidity, beach closures, habitat suitability, stock assessments, categorical risk assessment

• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets, and Media

• Outcome: Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, promote restoration, land and resource management, adaptation, and research

Indicators and Indices

http://www.eco-check.org/reportcard/chesapeake/2007/

15

Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll)

Monitoring & Forecast System• Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural

resources • Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and

movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries.

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites.

• Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners

• Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall

• Dissemination: Online and Media• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate

HAB effects.

Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance (Experimental product)

http://155.206.18.162/cbay_hab/

16

Dissolved Oxygen [DO]Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species.

• Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing

concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments

• Dissemination: Online and Media• Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and

recovery http://www.eco-check.org/forecast/chesapeake/overview/

17

Living Resource Distribution/Oyster

Monitoring & Forecast System

Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)http://csc.noaa.gov/cbolt/

• Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease.

• Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models

• Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers• Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing

habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking

• Dissemination: Online and Media• Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and

disease research

18

Disease Pathogen Progression

Monitoring & Forecast System

• Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health

• Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries

• Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data.

• Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials

• Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios

• Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media• Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate

impacts of pathogens

Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood Experimental product http://155.206.18.162/pathogens/