transforming new zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics paul callaghan...
TRANSCRIPT
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Transforming New Zealand's prosperity: the remarkable opportunity for physics
Paul CallaghanAlan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences
Victoria University of Wellington
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Some New Zealand economic history
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Pasture research.Strain and breedingNitrogen fixing role Bush-sickness-cobalt deficiencyIntegrated pastoral systemsThe role of phosphateAerial topdressingThe electric fenceMilk tankersThe science of milk productsMechanised cheesemaking Geoffrey Peren
Francis Dry
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Alpine Zone
Tussock
Exotic grassland
Exotic forest
Scrub, wetlands
Native forest
Settlements, crops
100
80
60
40
20
01000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
year
Recent history of New Zealand land coverperc
ent
tota
l lan
d ar
ea
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22 August to 5 October World Health Organisationrecommended
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZwww.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
tem
pera
ture
o C
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10
8
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2
0
Dunedin September
time (hh:mm)00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00
living room
outdoors
Sarah Shannon, Bob Lloyd, Jacob Roos and Jan Kohlmeyer
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Source: David Bibby, 1998
Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports
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1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
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tio
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1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010
Year
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Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average
New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion
Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
shortfallUS$ 29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
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Japan
Greece Spain
Iceland
Canada USA
IrelandUKSweden
Italy
Germany Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
SwitzerlandAustralia
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JapanNew Zealand
Greece Spain
Iceland
Canada USA
IrelandUKSweden
Italy
Germany Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
SwitzerlandAustralia
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Japan
New Zealand
Greece
Spain
IcelandCanada
USA
Ireland
Sweden
Italy
Germany
Switzerland
Australia Belgium,Netherlands Austria
Finland UKFrance
prosperity
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The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*
Total New Zealand population as at March 2009 4.32 million*
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
shortfallUS $29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
* NZTE
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Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*
Total New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
= NZ $143,000
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
shortfallUS $29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
* NZTE
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
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Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*
Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
We need another US $30 billion per annum exportsNew activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE!
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
shortfallUS $29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
* NZTE
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
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Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
Me
at
Da
iry
Fis
h
Fru
it an
d v
eg
eta
ble
Oth
er fo
od a
nd b
eve
rag
e
Fo
rest
ry a
nd o
the
r p
rim
ary
Me
tals
Ma
nu
fact
uri
ng
To
uris
m
0
2
4
6
8F
ore
ign
ear
nin
gs (
US
$ b
illio
n)
NZ External Trade Statisticshttp://www.stats.govt.nz
2006 US$ 32 billion
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Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed
Track Name n2 Not at all Crowded
Slightly Crowded
Moderately Crowded
Extremely Crowded
North Island % % % %
Lake Waikaremoana (GW)
29 21 48 24 7
Tongariro (GW) 51 27 45 18 10
UoO dept Tourism
Increase tourism by factor of 4?
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Tourism
Tourism expenditure in New Zealand, year ending March 2007 $20.1 billion. (International expenditure $8.8 billion and domestic expenditure $11.3 billion).
Tourism’s economic contribution to the New Zealand economy for the year ending March 2007 $14.1 billion of value-added activity or 9.2% of Gross Domestic Product.
Employment in tourism in New Zealand for the year ending March 2007 comprised 181,200 FTEs or 9.7% of total employment in New Zealand.
NZ $77,814 revenue per employee (direct + indirect)
Must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee
* Statistics NZ
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Meet ‘psycho’ for only $7950
Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani
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0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
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0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
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0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Fonterra
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
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0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Fonterra
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
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Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
Me
at
Da
iry
Fis
h
Fru
it an
d v
eg
eta
ble
Oth
er fo
od a
nd b
eve
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Fo
rest
ry a
nd o
the
r p
rim
ary
Me
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Ma
nu
fact
uri
ng
To
uris
m
0
2
4
6
8F
ore
ign
ear
nin
gs (
US
$ b
illio
n)
NZ External Trade Statisticshttp://www.stats.govt.nz
2006 US$ 32 billion
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A handful of slimy algaeand lake weed, being pulledout of Lake Rotoiti
Photo: Arno Gasteiger
The problem with dairy expansion (factor of five)
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NZ Greenhouse gas emissionshttp://www.mfe.govt.nz
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US $ revenues and profits
NZ $ 400,000 per employee
*
*
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Environment Industry
NZ
POR
DENIRL
CANAUSTFIN
USABEL MEX TA FR JPNNED SW GER SP UK
Agriculture, F and F
Our place on the research funding phase diagram
Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998
$9 per kg
$3000 per kg
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Abt Associates report to MoRSTwww.morst.govt.nz
New Economy Research Fund1999-2005 New Zealand
USA(and nearly everyone else)
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www.morst.govt.nz
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$100m
$200m
$300m
$400m
$500m
$1410m
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1
F and P appliances Datacom
F and P Healthcare Navico
NDA ProvencoCadmus
Rakon Gallagher
Weta Ltd Tait Electronics Ltd
Douglas pharmaceuticals Allied Telesis
MethvenTru Test
GlidepathDynamic controls
CWF HamiltonSchneider electric
Skope industriesBCS group
HumanwareInfinity group
NZ Pharmaceuticals
TIN100 New Zealand Technology Companies
Rank
An
nua
l re
ven
ue
(NZ
$)
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www.hotscience.co.nz
Beyond the Farm and the Themepark
50 minute documentaryTVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008
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Auckland University PressMarch 2009
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McMurdo Sound
NMR of Antarctic Sea Ice
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Mercier, Hunter and C, 2004
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Craig Eccles physicist/engineer
Robin Dykstra physicist/engineer
Science/engineering/business partnership
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Andrew Coy physicist/businessmanCEO Magritek
Science/engineering/business partnership
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One-sided access NMR
NZ $150,000 per employee
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2 MHz Halbach magnet rockcore analyzer
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• 10 staff: existing products selling well• New 2008 offshore investment (London and New York)• $1 000 000 sales in 2008• $1 000 000 sales by June 2009• Significant potential for new products
Magritek prospects
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NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
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Magritek export sales
NZ Taxpayer investment 1993 to 2009
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Magritek export sales
NZ Taxpayer return on investment 1993 to 2009
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Craig Eccles -to ETH Zurich now Magritek
Peter Daivis -to ANU now A/Prof, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia
Yang Xia - to Cornell now Prof., Oakland University, Detroit, USA
Andrew Coy- to KTH, Stockholm now CEO Magritek,
Craig Rofe - to UCSF, USA now Onslow College, Wellington
Jim Hargreaves - to New Zealand Dairy Research Institute
Bertram Manz - to Cambridge Univ., now Magritek
Miki Komlosh -to Freiburg University, now NIH, Washington, USA
Maria Kilfoil-to Harvard University, now Prof McGill U., Canada
Ryan Cormier (PhD)-to, Ottawa, now Physician, Canada
Alexandre Khrapitchev-to Cambridge Univ. now Oxford, UK
Roger Meder-to QUT, Australia now ENSIS, Australia
Maria del Rosario Lopez-Gonzalez-to PDF, U Glasgow, UK.
Robin Dykstra - to VUW, co-founder Magritek
Antoine Lutti -to PDF at UCL, UK
Simon Rogers -to PDF at FORTH, Greece
Kate Washburn -to ResLab, Norway
PhD students completed 1985-2009
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World-connected, entrepreneurial, engaged with public
Our PhD student obligations
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Science is a way of looking at the world to try to understand natural phenomena and their causes in a way that is self-consistent and corresponds with reality.
ValuesEvidence-based decisionsPeer review as a way of life A rational, if not benign, natureScepticism as a virtueWhat numbers mean and what they do not meanExpressing complex ideas with simple clarityKnowledge is not to be feared
Professor Lewis Wolpert
Scientists as leaders in society
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“Rich economies must defend themselves by remaining on the cutting edge of research, moving into new and growing branches, learning from others, finding the right niches, by cultivating and using ability and knowledge.
Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise, their sense of identity and commitment to thecommon weal, their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations.”
The one lesson that emerges is the need to keep trying. No miracles, no perfection, no millennium, no apocalypse. We must cultivate a sceptical faith, avoid dogma, listen and watch well,try to clarify and define ends, the better to choose means.”